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I've been running a POC to myself for a few weeks and it seems to be working, so I thought I'd pop it on here as I got some questions in a different thread about it.
"Da Rulez"
1. Find a game I believe to be a genuine unders candidate
2. Place a bet at KO on under 2.5 goals
3. Immediately place a lay bet for 20-25 ticks lower than the back price
4. ????
5. Profit
Bankroll management; My starting bank is £300 and I'm placing 10% at stake as my standard stake. The 10% will be calculated each Friday based on my BR at that time and will be set for the following week.
In conjunction I will be paper trading the same bets but with the following strategies;
Weighted Profit; wait for the ~20 ticks and then lay off but weight all profit to unders
Let it Ride; just plain old gambling!
Exit Strategy: In the event of an early goal I will asses and either red out for around 25-33% loss of stake or, if it's a wonder goal/I really trust my analysis, I'll sweat it out for a time and look to cash out for no loss.
No specific target in mind, just looking to take a POC public and try to win a few hundred quid.
"Da Rulez"
1. Find a game I believe to be a genuine unders candidate
2. Place a bet at KO on under 2.5 goals
3. Immediately place a lay bet for 20-25 ticks lower than the back price
4. ????
5. Profit
Bankroll management; My starting bank is £300 and I'm placing 10% at stake as my standard stake. The 10% will be calculated each Friday based on my BR at that time and will be set for the following week.
In conjunction I will be paper trading the same bets but with the following strategies;
Weighted Profit; wait for the ~20 ticks and then lay off but weight all profit to unders
Let it Ride; just plain old gambling!
Exit Strategy: In the event of an early goal I will asses and either red out for around 25-33% loss of stake or, if it's a wonder goal/I really trust my analysis, I'll sweat it out for a time and look to cash out for no loss.
No specific target in mind, just looking to take a POC public and try to win a few hundred quid.
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Good luck mate, will be following this to see how you get on. May even join in myself
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Cheers, I'll try to post before KO if there is more than enough liquidity to go around (can't imagine that'll be a problem with £30 stakes!)
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Sounds the right thing to do - the only thing i would be changing is equal greening it mate. there are hundreds of games out there that have nothing for 20 minutes to get your 20% but then finish with scorelines of 2-2 etc... GL mate. check ot the stats page on my site btw - theres quite a few undrs games forecast for ticks - I'll be updating it again today for the next 5 days worth.
All the best with it - PS - If it fails for a few selections - dont give up :) |
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14/Jun/13 Peru - Primera FBC Melgar v León de Huánuco
15/Jun/13 Argentina - Primera B Ferro Carril Oeste v Nueva Chicago 15/Jun/13 Argentina - Primera B Gimnasia La Plata v Sarmiento Junín 15/Jun/13 Argentina - Primera B Gimnasia Jujuy v CA Huracán BsAs 15/Jun/13 Argentina - Primera B CA Douglas Haig v Atlético Tucumán 16/Jun/13 Finland - Veikkausliga FC Lahti v RoPS Rovaniemi 16/Jun/13 Sweden - Superettan GAIS v Landskrona BoIS 17/Jun/13 Argentina - A CA Lanús v River Plate 18/Jun/13 Peru - Primera UTC Cajamarca v Pacífico FC |
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if you stick to the main live games you should be ok as the liquidity in some games is so low you wont get matched even though the markets are telling you that you should ie you 20 ticks lower should get matched because the game has ben 0-0 for 10 minutes but because there is no liquidity you havent been matched
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Check those yourself too. and gl mate
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they are exactly the games you shouldnt be betting on
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Why duke?
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when i mean live games i mean the main tv stations like sky espn bbc itv
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I've been stung by liquidity before, doing this on some games where I can't get matched, goal goes in, grrr arrr. I've learnt that lesson but I'm not too concerned until I get to the stage where several hundred is going down at once.
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@GTFI - I got this whole idea from you mate so cheers. I'm very very new to south american leagues so will steer clear unless a really good looking game jumps out at me
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The only thing about Argy is its the last - or last but one game of season - so would perhaps say you're wise to stear clear mate :)
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Sage advice I reckon
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did you get on the loko astana game - still only one shot OT
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nope, it had kicked off and had 5 minutes gone before I saw and the price had already dropped 10 ticks. With hindsight a mistake but one that didn't cost me anything!
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very true mate - a no loss is worth a win in some cases :)
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I took it 30 mins into the game when saw 1-0 OT :)
Fixtures 14 June / FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy / Over/Under 2.5 Goals Under 2.5 Goals Lay 27691940495 14-Jun-13 13:50 1.2 40.00 1.2 14-Jun-13 13:50 Fixtures 14 June / FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy / Over/Under 2.5 Goals Under 2.5 Goals Back 27691633773 14-Jun-13 13:34 1.3 8.26 1.3 14-Jun-13 13:34 Fixtures 14 June / FC Lokomotiv Astana v Shakhtyor Karagandy / Over/Under 2.5 Goals Under 2.5 Goals Back 27691614633 14-Jun-13 13:33 1.32 31.74 1.32 14-Jun-13 13:34 |
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Bet1: FC Zhetysu v FK Aktobe Back @ 1.87, Lay set at 1.67
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GL us then lol
Fixtures 14 June / FC Zhetysu v FK Aktobe / Over/Under 2.5 Goals Under 2.5 Goals Back 27692107719 14-Jun-13 13:58 1.87 40.00 1.87 14-Jun-13 13:58 |
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GL GTFI
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cheers mate - hope you make a go of it :) - btw - feel free to make a fred on my site too where it wont get lost in the clutter of freds on here
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I'll check it out
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but don't really fancy maintaining 2 threads plus my excel spreadsheet
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that sounds reasonable to me mate - no probs ;)
What excel sheet you using? Need any help? |
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out :)
Fixtures 14 June / FC Zhetysu v FK Aktobe / Over/Under 2.5 Goals Under 2.5 Goals Lay 27692310825 14-Jun-13 14:07 1.67 40.00 1.67 14-Jun-13 14:16 Well found mate - Cheers |
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I'm out
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Bet1 (Won): FC Zhetysu v FK Aktobe Back @ 1.87, Lay set at 1.67, +3.42, Running Total £3.42
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now total greens of £5.27 :) Excellent find mate... next?
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enjoy your extra couple of quid. not sure yet, something in Finland at 4:30 I imagine
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im going for Lahti game
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http://www.sportstats.com/soccer/finland/kakkonen-east/standings/
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looked at last games - nm - i'll stear clear of that one
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away team get thumped loads - even though last two home games have been 1-0 results :(
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Check out KaPA v LPS, probably my next target
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http://www.sportstats.com/soccer/finland/kakkonen-south/kapa-lps-vNmlV9W0/
Could be a 10% rather than 20 perhaps? Seems a bit of a 50/50 game for unders |
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I'm tempted to leave the afternoon KOs all together, I'm in no rush to lose my cash :D
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there is plenty on later, including the dirge that is the irish league
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I REALLY REALLY fancy the 2 goals in Orebro match - but waiting to see what odds come up. dont like taking under 1.25 so hopefully will reach it at some point
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