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Not often i can find odds like this on football, but check out the odds on the Siena v Sampdoria game and in particular the over 2.5 goals. At almost 6/4 for overs, i think this is a fantastic bet in fact i reckon the bookies for once have the odds the wrong way round. By my calculations this has over a 60% chance of 3 goals or more in this game making it an odds on shot.
I'm Lumping On!!!
I'm Lumping On!!!
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Do you know anything about missing players etc. that would justify the odds?
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"This match will be Siena's first without their top scorer and bandiera Emanuele Calaiò"
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Overs in Italy not involving Roma or Napoli, no thanks. Best of luck.
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Cheers for the comments IC, well this is just my personal take on unders/overs markets. A lot of people, in fact maybe the majority of people tend to look at the attacking perspective of teams when considering having a bet. I understand that logic as it would make sense that a team who are scoring a lot of goals will continue to do so. I take a different view and actually look at the defensive performances of sides. Not just how many goals they let in but stats for pass completion by defenders, fouls committed (especially those in their own half) and quite a few other things too. Since i changed my approach, i found from a profit point of view, that i have had far more success.
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Ramon, to some extent i agree with you, unfortunately so do the bookmakers. If you look at tonights game Roma v Inter over 2.5 is currently around 1/2. That is probably about right all things considered, however because of that, i dont think there is any value in betting at those odds.
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I've been doing a little goals challenge for a while (usually just 1 goal) and I've decided to back 1 or more goals here since I liked the value. The guy they got rid of was only their joint top scorer (with 4) and they have tons of different players in the team with a Serie A goal this season. I backed it at 1.12, I was hoping for 1.13 but there isn't much money in the market yet and I won't be around to place the bet when the match goes in-play.
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UTB (like the name btw), my only concern would be that if a team like Sampdoria can keep out AC Milan in their last game, then surely they should be prevent Sienna from scoring too. From this point of view you are bascially betting that Sampdoria will score 3 and while Sienna have conceded 3 in four of their last six games, it would be enough to put me off from having a maximum bet. Good luck though mate!
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Good luck with your challenge IC, i would be surprised if you didn't get matched at 1.13 and i wil be gobsmacked if you lost on that bet.
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Hey Mr D, I used to have a similar view whereby if a team had managed to shut out one of the big name teams in their previous game then surely they can do the same against lowly opposition. Unfortunately often this is not the case. Just one example Tottenham v Wigan back in November. Tottenham had scored in every league game prior to this match which Wigan won 1-0. In their next game Wigan were at home to West Brom. Now using that theory, if Wigan could shut out Tottenham who had been scoring consistently then surely they could do the same at home to West Brom. Well of course that didn't happen and The Baggies won 2-1.
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My view when having a big bet has to be to oppose the bookmakers when i think they are wrong. Going back to Ramons post who says he never goes with overs in Italian football unless it involves Napoli or Roma. I have already mentioned the Roma game tonight where overs is around 1/2. I think the bookmakers have this about right so wouldn't bet on it. Napoli who were playing away to Fiorentina earlier, i believe this game had overs a slight favourite around 10/11-4/5 something like that. Again i thought they had that about right even though the game finished 1-1, but because i thought the odds were about right i didn't bet. Siena v Sampdoria i think they have this wrong so i am prepared to back at around 6/4 which i think should be 4/6. Even if i am wrong this time, my past betting suggests i should continue with this approach as currently i am well on top in my battle with the evil ones!
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a goal just before HT would be lovely...
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Siena concede late goals usually, would love a Samp goal..
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I like the OP`s methadology (oppose the market, look for value) but if were in his/her shoes and I thought the market was such a massive margin out of whack with reality (4/6 not 6/4) It would give me pause for thought.
Serie A overs markets are unlikely to be so far out on here - keep working on your methadology, refine your process and you are on the right path... |
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Well unfortunately it looks as though i couldn't have got this one more wrong with both sides looking content to get players behind the ball and have certainly tightened up their defences more than i imagined they would
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Ty Tucker by the way
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However all is not lost on the day as i do intend to recoup losses and add a bit of profit on the:
Bordeaux v Paris St Germain match at 8.00 this evening. Same methodology over 2.5 market currently around 11/8 for overs. |
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GUESSER...
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classic 0-0
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Laid off my over 0.5 bet at ~65 mins, cue the goals!
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there it is lol
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Siena have taken the led at home plenty of times this season and lost 1-3, albeit they usually score in the first half, still hope for goals and Samp backers
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Yep, it just looked like another famous Italian 0-0 so I did my first lay there. I'm ready to give up on the whole thing tbh. I think I'm about even after 50 bets. Just looking for other markets to make a profit in besides my main football method :(
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The only way you can make 0.5's work is if you have other bets you use to build up a large bank. I was super confident about at least three of the Prem games this weekend but I didn't have the balls to put the money on I'd need to to make it worth it. If I had a 50k bank I'd of been on every one, and the longest wait would of been Liverpool's goal.
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I have lots available to bet with (more money than is in these goals markets pre kick-off usually) but if I can't make it work with £5 stakes then I won't be increasing the stake any time soon :P Perhaps I need to pick out my games better. The only games I'm really confident in (such as Ajax games) tend to be awful value like 1.05. I was trying to aim for 1.1 (~10 wins to offset a loss) bets where possible. I'd much rather lump £10k on 1.01
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dammit I used a less than sign and cut off half my post.
I'd much rather lump £10k on 1.01 under 4.5 goals at 0-0 50mins with the option of laying off if some goals went in than I would want to back '1 or more goals' at 1.01 or 1.02 pre kickoff in a Barcelona game. They're bound to have a 0-0 sooner or later (like PSG etc. last weekend). |
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down the boro do you think that betting over 2.5 was a maximum bet in this game? get off this site your claptrap is helping nobody
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