Football
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I have started this weekend backing over 0.5 goals in very selected matches and have managed to double my bank (albeit from a £5 starting position as a trial).
Has anybody tried this before with any degree of success?
My plans are to split my bank at least into two pots or more at some point in the future once the amount reaches a point where I would be unhappy to reload.
Constructive thoughts are welcome.
Has anybody tried this before with any degree of success?
My plans are to split my bank at least into two pots or more at some point in the future once the amount reaches a point where I would be unhappy to reload.
Constructive thoughts are welcome.
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won't work, no matter how careful you are, you'll hit an unexpected 0-0 soon.
3 examples from this weekend. Sapporo, 0-0 matched around 26-28..............ended 0-0. South china, 0-0 matched at 85 and over 0.5 matched at 1.01..................ended 0-0. Gremio, no 0-0 at home for over 4 years...............ended 0-0. |
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Its known as Dodging Bullets.
To be fair in the short run it can be useful to quickly build up a small bank but long term is impossible and value is not really there. |
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GREMIO NO 0-0 AT HOME FOR 4 YEARS AND ENDED UP 0-0 ,ITS NOT FAIR
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I think I need to get to the splitting of the bank rather quickly.
I am in no doubt that at some point I will hit upon an unexpected 0-0 but over time I feel I can dodge enough bullets to make this worthwhile (if not a little nervy - as it was last night in the Athletico match). |
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a little nervy !!90th minute goal I would say panic stations
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i picked 4 or 5 0-0s in a row
 on saturday, it is risky game |
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If my bank was more that £9.30 it certainly would have been.
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Look for another bet, Tony. It's hard enough avoiding a bullet when you're selective with your 0.5's, let alone doubling your bank with them in such a short time.
Best use of the 0.5, in my opinion, is going balls deep in scenario's you're as close to certain as possible (Barcelona v Peterborough  ), make £50, and use that as a starting bank. |
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You say you will be selective but what exactly is your criteria? Even Barca and Real Madrid had 0-0s last season.
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Perhaps look for games you think will be over 2.5 and then go over 0.5 big, just to build a bank,and then revert to bets with much smaller liabilities.
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Yes, Biscuit, but Barca's 0-0 was against Sevilla, one of the few sides capable of a 0-0 at Camp Nou, Madrid was Valencia, the third best side in the league. Obviously you only play 0.5 on these teams when they're at home, never away.
If you played one or two 0.5's on those teams over the course of the season you'd do well to hit a 0-0. Money Tree/Dawsy/Hard_Life well |
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PSV are a good example. Take away top Dutch sides, and their last 0-0 at home was 155 odd games ago
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Biscuit1979 - being selective for me is sticking to leagues where I have at least some knowledge of both sides. Lots of football being played in the day today, TBH I have no idea (or interest) of Russian League One, Womens U19 football or reserve matches so will steer well clear. As I have said earlier, I know I will hit a bullet eventually, I just hope at that point my bank is split into numerous pots so as the loss is not fatal.
JC1326 - you make some interesting points which are certainly food for thought. |
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True but he's got £9, hardly a get rich quick system backing goals in a PSV game
There's a similar debate going on in the under 6.5 thread. Most people could probably choose one or two a week and get it right, it's when you start to pick 4/5/6 a day. Depends how quickly you want to build that bank i guess. |
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That's what I meant about only using it on a rare occasion. Stick 1k on a PSV game, a Barca one too, and that's £40 odd. Then use that as a starting bank, and stay well away from 0.5's.
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United (home), City (home), Everton, Southampton, Peterborough, Barca, Real, PSV, Ajax, Celtic, Anderlecht (home), Porto (home), Copenhagen, the top 3 in Estonia, Univ de Chile, Brisbane Roar, are the sides that spring to mind you should keep an eye on.
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I could tell you which European teams have the lowest 0-0 % in twelve seasons but I am not going to :)
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srichaphan why even bother posting that
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But your suggestion about seeing which games are most likely to have 2.5 goals and then going for at least one goal in them wouldnt work.
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For example, Dagenham have just 2.5% of home matches finishing goalless, but they have 49% of their matches at home under 2.5 goals, whereas Newcastle, for example, have a large number of 0-0s at home, 11.32%, but 45% of matches under 2.5 goals.
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OK thanks for that,but I am talking about being selective and very short term and only trying to help,what you say is also true but if one knows the teams i think it can be done only mvho of course
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multiple over 1.5 goals are the way to go! tomorrow night... u can pick eight and it will be 8-9/1 #easymoney
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Can you do them on here?
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I think it is about percentages. If a team should be 1.06 and they are 1.08, put money on them, but if they are 1.12 avoid them as the market knows something you don't.
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Average price is around 14.0 which means you will win 13 times
out of 14, often enough to kid you that you are very clever and thinking it's easy money, them WHAM!! |
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Personally, I think you're better off going for under 6 goals than you are going for over 0 goals.
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Tried laying 0-0 a few seasons ago. I 'trialed' it first and managed to avoid a 0-0 in about 50 games over the 3-month trial period.
Then, the very first game I laid 0-0 with real money (£20 at odds of 22.0 in West ham v Blackpool), you can guess what the result was. Both teams had been scoring goals and had lots of chances to score. It was murder watching Kamara repeatedly shouting "Unbelievable Jeff!" every time they went to him at Upton Park. And it was agony again watching all the near misses on MOTD that night, and seeing my £440 disappear off another Carlton Cole mis-cue. When I tried to rationlise my misfortune afterwards (from memory, I think Harewood had a perfectly good goal disallowed for offside or something), I reasoned to myself that I was just unlucky. On any other day it could have been 4-4. But then, thinking about it, I was pinning my faith on two relegation-bound teams with poor strikers. They both let it in goals by the hatful on a regular basis, just not against each other! |
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Surprised that anyone plays on that market, especially as it
the most efficient one on the correct scores, despite being the 4th most likely to happen. |
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The 2.5 market is the least efficient.
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what are your thoughts on the 1.5 market guys?I think after 15 minutes it can offer good value
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Under 1.5 is great value, is that what you mean?
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I do the o1.5 after 20-30mins. You miss a lot of early goals, but you also get to dodge dead games. Works for me.
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over 1.5 loaded
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Under/over 2.5 goals is THE market, the others are just derivitives.
Show me the 2.5 price and I will tell you the others around it. It's very predictable. |
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Avoiding the 0-0 requires a crystal ball, if you have one carry on if not look into pricing events up and back when the price is too big and lay when it's too short.
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I often estimate what i think the price for 0-0 over 1.5 and 2.5 will be before i look at the markets and i am in the main pretty accurate what that proves i don't know,does it mean i am on the money therefore there is no edge or does it mean that they are all pretty predictable and again no edge.
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Laying a scoreless draw is a synonym for walking on a never-ending minefield. You might get 30 steps right, 50 or even 100, but eventually you will hit the 'bomb'. It doesn't matter whether teams played with each other 30 times or more in the past and were always in a free-scoring mood. 0-0 do happen on odds 6, 10 or 100 (excluding San Marino & Andorra ;)). Being selective doesn't mean much, only stretches the run over the time. A few examples where you would(!) back a goal+:
ManUtd v Sunderland in a league 7 years ago. United fighting for the top spot while Sunderland were already relegated. United hadn't had 0-0 at home all season long, Sunderland hadn't had an away 0-0 all season long either. FT: 0-0. Ajax v Sparta in a league 2-3 seasons ago. Ajax had always been putting 5-6 goals past Sparta which were relegation material before season started. Ajax had the highest goal scored per game average and Sparta highest goal conceded per game. A few games, goals and woodwork later, Ajax went to lose the championship one a single point difference, Sparta went down to the lower division. Needless to say this game finished goalless. A few close shaves from this year that I remember: German women in World championship in Japan against Ghana (1.01 pre kick off and a goal in 92nd minute), Twente against Venlo in a league and a penalty goal in 93rd minute (odds must have been around 60). Hardly obscure teams the above and most would bet their houses on 3-4 goal trashings against such opposition. There's no tactic in avoiding 0-0, if you want to be almost 100% sure, bet against 0-0 in England v San Marino like games and even then you can't be too sure when Heskey plays upfront. |