How can anyone justify Liverpool's 1.37 at home on Saturday

13/01/2010    Liverpool     1-1     Reading
02/01/2010    Reading     1-1     Liverpool

Oct 18, 2012 -- 11:46AM, booyakasha wrote:

I havent said it before any of these games, but this Saturday is a big YES!Also stuck a large chunk on Any Unquoted

That's not all that bad. I think the AUQ has a decent chance of landing if Pogrebnyak plays.

Good point CJ.

Dont think anyone in the right mind would take those odds for liverpool against reading

Liverpool are capable of mixing it with the best sides in the league, however they can struggle to combat some of the so called lower sides especially at home

I would want about 1.6/1.7 for liverpool in this fixture if I was betting

however from a non betting standpoint, I expect liverpool will win this one,

those who want a wager should back suarez to score 3/2/1 goal as his stats suggest hes about ready to score

Can't have Liverpool at more than 35% to win this match

Liverpool will struggle to get penalties after all the negative press re. diving (Suarez & Gerrard usually most guilty).
Reading will see this as a game where they can get at least a point.

Liverpool favourites for sure.  But 1.6 would be about right.

"You lay Liverpool and I will back Liverpool and see who has more money by Saturday evening"

Whoops.  Someone doesn't understand the concept of value.  He thinks Liverpool will win so he's going to back them.  Price irrelevant. 

I have already stated I think it is value, mug

dont make the mistake of thinking Reading will be as hard to beat as Stoke

Points per match
League average        1.33
Liverpool        0.86

% Wins
League average        33.3%
Liverpool        14.3%

% Draws
League average        33.3%
Liverpool        42.9%

% Defeats
League average        33.3%
Liverpool        42.9%

Goals scored per match
League average        1.49
Liverpool        1.29

Goals conceded per match
League average        1.49
Liverpool        1.71

A bottom of the table scrap.  I think it'll be a tight, tense affair.

no. you dont

Oct 18, 2012 -- 1:11PM, freddiek wrote:

no. you dont

what do you think will happen freddie?

booyakasha 18 Oct 12 12:40 
I have already stated I think it is value, mug




If you think 1.37 is value, please tell us what you think their true odds should be. 1.25? 1.3? I'm intrigued.

He doesnt understand the term value. He just thinks they will win. Utterly clueless!

Shhhh.   Don't scare him away.

I think it's a value lay but I won't be getting involved, much better lay prices on Pool against better teams.  I also believe Liverpool finished in a false position last season and are sitting in a false position now.   They have a much better squad than a lot of teams but that doesn't always win games, and Suarez is being discriminated against for being a diver and should receive a booking if the ref thinks he dived.

I think 1.6 still wouldn't tempt me to back Liverpool purely because they seem to have a lot of bad luck.  I would rather back Suarez 2 or more or AGS.

it was the same liverpool v stoke 1.5 or summit

mad,

loads of rich scousers with rose tinted glasses or summit?

ill be laying ****rpool thats for sure

That's an example of a better lay price against a better team iamhewho.  Stoke have a much greater chance of stifling Suarez than Reading do.

Still, anyone who regularly lays Liverpool will have won too much to stop doing it now.

Id have Liverpool at 1.3.

All u muppets claiming the lay is value crack me up

Lay Liverpool and lose your money

Oct 18, 2012 -- 2:53PM, booyakasha wrote:

All u muppets claiming the lay is value crack me up Lay Liverpool and lose your money

This guy has to be fishing.  Surely he can't be that stupid.

Liverpool would win this match AT LEAST 8 times out 10.

i.e. it is value

so Id have them at 1.25

booyakasha 18 Oct 12 14:52 
Id have Liverpool at 1.3

booyakasha 18 Oct 12 14:58 
so Id have them at 1.25




you sound like you know what you're talking about

dayshavoo

exactly the same convos as liverpool stoke

shrewdies talking about value

and others talking about sure fire bets liverpool all the way etc

ended 0-0 didnt it

8 out of 10 is 1.25 u ****g bellend

32,821 posts and still moronic!

Why would anyone want to back a team at 1.37 (i.e. at 73%) who have forgotten how to win just because it's the mighty Liverpool. You do realise Souness, Keegan, Rush, Grobelaar, etc, don't play any more don't you. I reckon they'll win, probably by a couple, but at this moment in time, you can't back Liverpool that short.

Have a look when Booyakasha joined? That tells you all you need to know. "Jonnie come lately" is the phrase! His sort won't even be around in a few months time let alone a few years, especially considering how he is already contradicting himself. He is on a wind up.

They are too short, but at the same time it's Reading and it's Liverpool, and could easily be 3-0. Small lay of Liverpool would be the way to go, but anyone putting a large amount on Reading avoiding defeat at Anfield is a mug.

The beauty of a punter rather than a bookie is you can leave a game alone. When Liverpool are priced that short, you can do just that.

Not on a wind up

Thanks for money mugz

booyakasha 18 Oct 12 15:30 
8 out of 10 is 1.25 u ****g bellend





I'm well aware of that thanks, i was referring to the fact you said they should be 1.3 then 6 minutes later went oh no actually they should be 1.25. So let's sum up, you think that a side with no home wins this season, only 2 home wins in the entire calendar year, and only 4 home wins in their last 20, should be 1.25. You are a betting genius. Then again we already know that seeing as last week you gave us this outstanding tip.

http://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/29428491/found-a-massive-arb-tonight

I made an error last week which I held my hands up to.

And yes thanks for the stats, much appreciated. What can you tell me about Readin apart from the fact they are ****?!

I can't tell you any more than that, you appear to have it covered. They are sh*t. Just like Norwich, Swansea, Blackburn, Stoke (twice), Wigan, West brom, Villa and Fulham.

Stoke, WBA, Swansea and Fulham are not shyte. the rest are. its disappointing not to beat all of those teams at home but they re not all cannon fodder

Last time Reading played at Anfield, they knocked Liverpool out of the cup YAWN.

Great post Biscuit, couldn't of put him more in his place myself!

Arsenal at 1.59 at Norwich a better bet than Liverpool at 1.38 - unless of course Liverpool supporters think they are better than Arsenal

Reading away this season..

Chelsea 4-2
West Brom 1-0
Newcastle 2-2
Swansea 2-2
QPR 2-3

Take away the West Brom game and it's clear that Reading are decent away side but struggle to maintain a lead.

At this stage of the season correct prices are harder to ascertain; 2 months worth of results so far may be misleading, so to a large extent people have to look more at how teams are playing and base their ratings on that.

If Liverpool limp into 8th again and Reading finish comfortable mid table then people will look back and be amazed Liverpool were so short for this

If Liverpool finish 4th and Reading go down with less than 30pts, 1.37 will be seen as an amazing price

Oct 18, 2012 -- 4:59PM, themover wrote:

Arsenal at 1.59 at Norwich a better bet than Liverpool at 1.38 - unless of course Liverpool supporters think they are better than Arsenal

Well it doesn't mean they are better than Arsenal, just that Arsenal are away

If Liverpool can score 5 at Norwich we should be aiming for twenty.

At least.

It is bloody hilarious how one eyed hatred = Useless team

It is simple , if you think it's a bad price lay it, if you don't then back it

So many ignorant tools here who can't debate without everyone with a differing view being a "mug"

As for sofaking making a "fortune" laying Liverpool Of course you have , perhaps you can c&p you collection of lays that have made you rich.

Remember for every backer there has to be a layer with the opposite view and those that shout loudest on here are imo the ones who have least to shout about and I have no doubt are "massive" losers ( relative to their available funds )

Anyone who claims to be making a fortune is huge odds on to be a serial loser so shouts loudest about how clever he is.

Price is about right imo based on the probable outcome based on the capabilities of each team.

Past for is NOT like horse racing in showing what a horse is capable of , Liverpool have shown at times that they can beat ANYONE and anything close to that means they win this easily.

Gon****s can shout all they want but none of them will post thier lays cos they DONT back up their rants with hard cash , they simply love to spout bollox IF they guess right and claim to be clever and rich

****s

Imac predictive texts ...shocker

I don't have to prove anything to you.   Just visit any Liverpool match thread (when playing the so called lower teams) and you will see proof of my bets.

I was talking to Edward..... there.

"look at me" I am clever



www.deludedpunter.com

Oct 18, 2012 -- 7:29PM, EdwardWoowardWould wrote:

"look at me" I am cleverwww.deludedpunter.com

Who's this bellend talking to?    Anyway, you have now been BLOCKED.   Bye.

Oh no, what will I do now the "great one" has blocked me

I will bet 1.00000000001 to everything I own he will read this reply

Sad ****ker , hates Liverpool so claims he makes a fortune laying them

MASSIVE LOSER .....absolute stone cold 24 carat certainty

Gobby shiits like him are broke and in dept...FACT

Quite happy to lay Liverpool all season if you are willing to back them, Edward? A generic price of a tenner? each game and see who comes out on top at the end of the season?

Easy way to sort it out?

Oct 18, 2012 -- 7:47PM, CJ70 wrote:

Quite happy to lay Liverpool all season if you are willing to back them, Edward? A generic price of a tenner? each game and see who comes out on top at the end of the season? Easy way to sort it out?

Edward won't be here at the end of the season, CJ.  His type usually only last a few months at most on Betfair.

Edward does seem rather angry that people have differences of opinion

Reina out for Liverpool?

Not sure yet if Reina is out.  He's having fitness tests today I hear.

reina being out not the worst news surely the way he's played over the the last season or so

Another lay of the century eh sofa?

Liverpool might scrape a win if Suarez and his invisible sniper mate are in form.

Oct 18, 2012 -- 9:17PM, cob316 wrote:

Another lay of the century eh sofa?

No.   Liverpool will probably win this but the price is horrible.

Oct 18, 2012 -- 9:47PM, sofaking wrote:

Oct 18, 2012 --  9:17PM, cob316 wrote:Another lay of the century eh sofa?No.   Liverpool will probably win this but the price is horrible.

Sensible approach. Liverpool will probably win this so I wouldn't be running out to lay it, but I could never back Liverpool at such a stupidly short price. As for EWW, Liverpool is the best team to lay in the Premier League this season and my bet is they continue to be. I'd guess they and Newcastle are probably the most overbacked teams out there.

I agree Liverpool may well win this, (They absolutely should, this is Reading for fS)but as has been mentioned the price is massively prohibitive, which is the discussion point. I agree with those that have said the price should be somewhere around 1.6 to 1.65.

Pleasing thread

Oct 18, 2012 -- 3:17PM, Biscuit1979 wrote:

booyakasha 18 Oct 12 14:52  Id have Liverpool at 1.3booyakasha 18 Oct 12 14:58  so Id have them at 1.25you sound like you know what you're talking about

-Make your mind up OP

Very Pleasing Thread Indeed

loadedgimp • October 18, 2012 2:33 PM BST
I think it's a value lay but I won't be getting involved, much better lay prices on Pool against better teams.

sofaking Date Joined: 08 Nov 07
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Oct 18, 2012 -- 11:29AM, booyakasha wrote:

Liverpool been unlucky most of this season.They will hammer Reading, Im on Liverpool -1.5Reckon this could be 4 or 5-0 though to be honest


Did you also think that Liverpool at 1.52 would hammer Stoke?   Are you Rowan86?    I don't think I'll lay them but there's no way I'd back them at that price.

God you talk so much sh*t SofaKing. You made such a deal out of Liverpool at 1.52 pre kick off being a huge lay and then you backed them at 1.77 after 35 mins! What a joker!

Darlo Bantam Date Joined: 27 Mar 07
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Oct 18, 2012 -- 9:47PM, sofaking wrote:

Oct 18, 2012 --  9:17PM, cob316 wrote:Another lay of the century eh sofa?No.   Liverpool will probably win this but the price is horrible.


Sensible approach. Liverpool will probably win this so I wouldn't be running out to lay it, but I could never back Liverpool at such a stupidly short price. As for EWW, Liverpool is the best team to lay in the Premier League this season and my bet is they continue to be. I'd guess they and Newcastle are probably the most overbacked teams out there.

To be honest, I don't really understand that reasoning, although I doubt you meant everything that literally. At 1.36, it's not about whether they're probably going to win. It's about whether they have less than a 73% chance of winning.

I'm sure you knew that anyway btw Darlo. Just making a point.

Imo Liverpool are pretty much correctly priced at 1.37. Probably not wrong by more than a few %. Okay, Liverpool's home form has been shocking by their standards for over a season now, but they've been very unlucky so far this season and shown how they can take the best of teams apart on their day. Their form is very misleading and the market realises that.

Oh god.

lol. How's it going CJ. What price do you make Liverpool? I'd say they're about right at 1.37.

EdwardWoowardWould Date Joined: 18 May 12
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Oh no, what will I do now the "great one" has blocked me

I will bet 1.00000000001 to everything I own he will read this reply

Sad ****ker , hates Liverpool so claims he makes a fortune laying them

MASSIVE LOSER .....absolute stone cold 24 carat certainty

Last week he backed Liverpool at 1.77 after 35 mins and then backed them again at 3.0 with 12 mins + injury time left despite saying they were ridiculously short pre-kick off at 1.52.  He doesn't even think about what he's doing. He's just random.

CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11
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Reading away this season..

Chelsea 4-2
West Brom 1-0
Newcastle 2-2
Swansea 2-2
QPR 2-3

Take away the West Brom game and it's clear that Reading are decent away side but struggle to maintain a lead.

Reading were at home against Newcastle.

Well done. You win the betting points.

hahaha. Sorry, wasn't trying to be facetious. Just pointing it out. What price do you think Liverpool should be?

My bet for this match is Liverpool 3 Reading 0 at 10.5.

layed 3 goals = liverpool total goals

Layed Liverpool for a few bob @ 1.14

Rowan86 the worthless retard is still obsessed with me I see.   He still hasn't gotten over the fact that I took his cash (He backed Liverpool at 1.52 FULL BANK v Stoke).

Oct 20, 2012 -- 2:40PM, Rowan86 wrote:

My bet for this match is Liverpool 3 Reading 0 at 10.5.

Another loser.

lol. SofaKing's still crying about his losing bets on Liverpool last week at 1.77 after 35 mins and at 3.0 with 12 mins + injury left.

Idiot.  I made a large profit on that game as you know. You still have no idea how Betfair works, do you.

LMFA

sofakinsmug shouts down a guy who fancied a winner by CLAIMING he makes "fortunes" laying them all the time when the guy was talking about this game in isolation

Well smug bollooocks, you were wrong, wrong wrong and did your stones as I have no doubt you do on a constant basis you arrogant man ( man used loosely )

Well done the the backers , no doubt these smug feckers will convince themselves you back Liverpool EVERY game and are incapable of spotting value in ONE game

GL

1.01 sofakingsmug will read this

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EdwardWoowardWould Date Joined: 18 May 12
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Oh no, what will I do now the "great one" has blocked me

I will bet 1.00000000001 to everything I own he will read this reply

Sad ****ker , hates Liverpool so claims he makes a fortune laying them

MASSIVE LOSER .....absolute stone cold 24 carat certainty

Last week he backed Liverpool at 1.77 after 35 mins and then backed them again at 3.0 with 12 mins + injury time left despite saying they were ridiculously short pre-kick off at 1.52.  He doesn't even think about what he's doing. He's just random.

Rowan tbh I have never uttered a word to sofakingsmug on any other thred but his big headed claims to someone who simply had a view that Liverpool were good value vs a poor Reading side ( and was proved right btw ) by claiming he makes fortunes Laying Liverpool was utter bullshiit as the guy was not talking about backing Liverpool ALL THE TIME , he simply had a view on the game

Sofakingsmug is a serial big time loser on here I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever, his type who shout how good they are NEVER win money long term.

GL

Edward, you could have taken my cash.

What could have been eh?

CJ70

Unlikely , I didn't have a bet.

My point was as stated above , some arrogant ****s are not capable of de=bating a bet without ahouting about how clever they are and not even arguing the right thing

The guy pointed out THIS match was a value bet on Liverpool only for sofakingsmug to start shouting his garbage about making fortunes yadayadayada without even stopping to see the fact this guy might actually only bet Liverpool this once in his life but  everyone who bet Pool today were mugs

GL

Ed

Don't agree that this was a value bet on Liverpool.

sofaking 18 Oct 12 11:38 Joined: 08 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 13,288 | Blogger: sofaking's blog
Oct 18, 2012 -- 11:36AM, Talkingfrom yourpocket wrote:

Don't you love the deluded Liverpool fans, poor old booyakasha will do his nuts on them. If they don't get him this weekend then they will get him in the future when he backs them again at crazy odds.

I've made a fortune laying Liverpool over the last few seasons.   A lot of people still haven't realised that they are now a mid-table club who are hugely underpriced for every game they play.

I must have missed where anyone said on this thread that they backed Liverpool EVERY time they were short or "crzy " price

What a dumb tool sofakingsmug is

How many Prem lge games do you think Reading will get a result from out of 10.

I would say very very few so price might not have been value, I stated on this thread that I thght it was about right but it certainly wasn't "crazy"

If it was then the smug sofa would have laid it for a "fortune" as I would and do if I think a price is cray either too short or too long

But as with many he is all pisss and wind and likes to shout how clever he was

Oct 20, 2012 -- 6:21PM, EdwardWoowardWould wrote:

How many Prem lge games do you think Reading will get a result from out of 10.I would say very very few so price might not have been value, I stated on this thread that I thght it was about right but it certainly wasn't "crazy"If it was then the smug sofa would have laid it for a "fortune" as I would and do if I think a price is cray either too short or too longBut as with many he is all pisss and wind and likes to shout how clever he was

I didn't lay Liverpool today, idiot.

Oct 18, 2012 -- 6:42PM, Mr Eboue wrote:

If Liverpool can score 5 at Norwich we should be aiming for twenty.At least.

Whoops!

Oct 18, 2012 -- 1:04PM, sofaking wrote:

A bottom of the table scrap.

Why do you get so angry Edward when I say that I make good money from laying Liverpool?   

if you believed that you had to lay @ 1.37

Oct 20, 2012 -- 7:28PM, cob316 wrote:

if you believed that you had to lay @ 1.37

I like to wind up the Liverpool fans, cob.  Don't take everything I post literally.

pmsl eboue

Lol cheers mug layers

Why don't u actually start watching football and gain some knowledge!

Reading to get a result at anfield?pmsl well done!

didn't see the game, was it a demolition as you would expect of a 1.37 shot?

squeaked over the line with a goal by a youth team player.