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kenilworth
06 Sep 12 00:20
Joined:
Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
| Topic/replies: 15,627 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
1) Seriously learn how to price up.

2) When you have cracked that,
compare your prices with the pros.

3) When there is a big difference
between their's yours, have a look
to see why.

4) If you are happy that you are right
and they are wrong, bet against them.

5) Only bet if you have at least a 20%
in your favour, that is for example 6/5
about an 1/1 chance.

6) 95% of the time there will be little
or no diff between them and you, which
means you are on the right track.

7) Be sure you know how to compile prices

8) Good luck.
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Report themover September 6, 2012 12:56 AM BST
hehe
Report dellman41 September 6, 2012 12:58 AM BST
I seeeeeeeee...... I keep forgetting it is an exchange and not the bookies....

P.S

Cheers DAVE.
Report Max and Paddy September 6, 2012 1:09 AM BST
Manchester City v Real Madrid has 0-1 or 1-1 written all over it. Hope this helps.
Report themover September 6, 2012 1:14 AM BST
prices please Max and Paddy? Silly
Report themover September 6, 2012 1:15 AM BST
can I have 3/1 City, got some 9/4 to get shot of Laugh
Report Max and Paddy September 6, 2012 1:19 AM BST
Laugh

You can have 11/2 on 0-1 and 9/2 on 1-1. Maximum stakes £5. I went to school with Fred Done's son, you know...
Report themover September 6, 2012 1:22 AM BST
Laugh
Report meltdown September 6, 2012 3:18 AM BST
I think i disagree with every point here.
Report MrBaboon September 6, 2012 7:45 AM BST
Exactly. Point 8 is the important one. Its all subjective u can analyse stats all day long. there is no logic.
Report kenilworth September 6, 2012 8:32 AM BST
Real v ManC ?
1.7 Real etc, etc looks about right, though I find
comparing clubs sides from different countries quite
difficult although La Liga and PL champions among
the easier pairings. Both sides have had a stuttering
starts, but a tentative rating would have Real about
a half a goal superior on a neutral venue.
English leagues are more interesting.
Report MrBaboon September 6, 2012 9:09 AM BST
So how do you arrive at 1.7 for Real ...it is  basically a guess ?
Report kenilworth September 6, 2012 9:12 AM BST
An educated guess I suppose trying to evaluate Spanish
and English form. Would you be a backer or a layer of Real
at 1.7 ?
Report meltdown September 6, 2012 9:17 AM BST
on under 2.5  & 2-0 home team will trade
Report MrBaboon September 6, 2012 9:17 AM BST
I agree comparing across countries is difficult....hmmmmm probably a backer
Report meltdown September 6, 2012 9:20 AM BST
how was that not 1-0
Report Biscuit1979 September 6, 2012 9:43 AM BST
Sorry Ken i was talking about if the game was at the Etihad. I can't find any prices up for this fixture yet, only the game at the Bernabeu.

these were my (rough) prices.

City 6/4
Draw 9/4
Real 13/8

Just wondered if you agreed, disagreed, etc.
Report kenilworth September 6, 2012 10:06 AM BST
...probably a backer. Is that just a guess or not ?

I would be a backer at 1.85, a layer at 1.60.
Report Mariner Paul September 6, 2012 10:08 AM BST
Always use this site for it's exact purpose - trade. I can't believe that there are people out there who still don't green. Complete madness in my opinion.
Report MrBaboon September 6, 2012 10:08 AM BST
yes just a guess
Report MrBaboon September 6, 2012 10:09 AM BST
an educated guess as you would say...just my opinion nothing more. I haven't spent hours analysing form and statistics
Report kenilworth September 6, 2012 10:15 AM BST
biscuit, subjectivity comes into these group matches, betting
dependent on the needs of both sides at the time of the match.
As a one off match at ManC I would have the betting the other
way, Real 7/4, ManC 15/8, draw 9/4 (102%).
Report kenilworth September 6, 2012 10:17 AM BST
Mariner, what do you do when it's not possible
to 'green up' ?
Report Mariner Paul September 6, 2012 10:24 AM BST
There's been times when I've took a red but it's all about keeping them down to a minimum. Nobody has a 100% strike rate.
Report Bruce Willis September 6, 2012 10:27 AM BST
Do you green out of a lot of winning bets also?
Report Bruce Willis September 6, 2012 10:27 AM BST
Every winning bet,  that should say
Ever let any run to the end?
Report Mariner Paul September 6, 2012 10:30 AM BST
No. Never. You have to take each bet on it's merits. I mostly lay away teams at anything from 4 to 6 and then green when the home team scores. If the away team scores first then you've just got to hope that there's an equaliser. Then you have the chance to get out. It's just a strategy that works for me.
Report kenilworth September 6, 2012 10:31 AM BST
Mariner, ever worked out whether or not you
would have better off by letting your bets
their course ? You may be better off.
Report Mariner Paul September 6, 2012 10:34 AM BST
I don't ever think about it and maybe I'm not as better off in the long run. It would be hard to quantify. I've been doing this for 4 years now and make so many trades every week that I can't keep track.
Report mikeysymons September 6, 2012 10:35 AM BST
Biscuit check ur pm :)
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 10:49 AM BST
I very rarely trade out because I have faith in my ability to place winning bets. Unless you are placing more bad bets than good ones trading out early will theoretically cost you money in the long run.

You don't need to make a profit from every individual bet to be a successful gambler, you just need to win more than you lose.
Report gawdalmighty September 6, 2012 11:21 AM BST
Slightly misleading post title. All very well knowing how to price up and compare teams objectively but at the end of the day it doesnt mean you will win. If it were that easy, Ken we would all be doing it Wink
Report MrBaboon September 6, 2012 11:30 AM BST
Precisely gawd....the first point says 'Seriously learn how to price up'....Ken then said his 1.7 price  on Real was an educated guess

Point 8 is the main point
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 11:34 AM BST
Any sensible punter understands that luck is irrelevant because it evens out in the long run.
Report buzzer September 6, 2012 12:21 PM BST
You have to back value, for some reason people can't get their heads around this!
People who take the best/biggest odds with the books get restricted heavily/banned and are classed as arbers!
Why is this do you think, why do the books bother banning these people if prices do not matter and it's only winning bets that matters?
People say beating the odds doesn't mean you'll win, over time of course it does! What's so hard to understand it's very basic mathematics!
Two punters back the same selections... 1st bet, punter A bets at 5-4 for £100 punter b gets on at 4-5 for £100, selection wins both happy?
2nd bet punter A gets on at even money punter b gets on at 4-5 both for £100, selection loses
can you see where this is going, even over those 2 bets, which is obviously an extremely small sample. They've both had a winner and a loser but..............if you can't see why you need to be beating the odds you should give up now.
Report MrBaboon September 6, 2012 12:26 PM BST
Understand all that buzzer but it's all subjective; what's value to one isn't necessarily to another.

If you back Real pre kick off at 1.7 and odds then go out to 1.9 (you haven't got value according to your logic).
Report maas September 6, 2012 12:26 PM BST
they dont care about value, they just want bets that win
Report SirFresh September 6, 2012 12:32 PM BST
The most important thing is staking, imo.
Report buzzer September 6, 2012 12:35 PM BST
Why's value subjective if you get restricted/banned for taking the best prices?
It's because the books make a decision that you can beat them over the long term because of the prices you take, they tag these people as arbers which is often not the case it's just that they are price sensitive and only bet when the odds are in their favour. It doesn't mean they are going to win all their bets and clean the books out it just means over a period of time they'll win so the books make a decision they don't want their business!
Report MrBaboon September 6, 2012 12:37 PM BST
I've not been banned from Betfair for taking the best price
Report kenilworth September 6, 2012 12:43 PM BST
MrB, Every bet made is a guess, when the event
hasn't taken place, some are more educated than
others. I'm sure there are many who do seek the
value, but well outnumbered by those who think
differently. Don't follow the sheep.

BTW I am less confident of betting in matches between
clubs from different countries, and don't bet very
often in such matches.
Report buzzer September 6, 2012 12:46 PM BST
Have you ever paid the premium charge?
It's a fallacy to think only traders / fast pic merchants  pay the premium charge on here.
Market makers on here operate on very small margins but can turn over very large amounts of money meaning if they make just under 1% on turnover after commission but can turnover 250k a week they can still make decent money, what do these market makers rely on do you think?
Report TRD.Racing September 6, 2012 1:24 PM BST
Value to one person,is not value to someone else.

I don't bet football,horses are my game,but I might think a certain horse is value at 3/1,the mere fact that you get laid at that price tells you someone thinks differently.

The myth of value,is just part of making the game pay
Report Biscuit1979 September 6, 2012 1:24 PM BST
meltdown 06 Sep 12 03:18 
I think i disagree with every point here.




Why?
Report buzzer September 6, 2012 1:35 PM BST
Joined:
14 Apr 11
| Topic/replies: 4,887 | Blogger: TRD.Racing's blog
Value to one person,is not value to someone else.

I don't bet football,horses are my game,but I might think a certain horse is value at 3/1,the mere fact that you get laid at that price tells you someone thinks differently.

The myth of value,is just part of making the game pay



How many make the game pay?
Do you think any make it pay long term taking under the true odds?
Report TRD.Racing September 6, 2012 1:39 PM BST
Buzzer In this day and age on the horses,a horse is generally to big a price for a reason,and that reason is not because it's value.

I'm not saying backing at the right price is not important,I'm saying it's not the be all and end all
Report kenilworth September 6, 2012 1:41 PM BST
I don't think there are many straight punters who
are paying PC, and I'm not paying it. I may be wrong
though.
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 1:43 PM BST
"Buzzer In this day and age on the horses,a horse is generally to big a price for a reason,and that reason is not because it's value."

Firstly, what does it matter what day it is?  And secondly if a horse is not value, then by definition the price can't be too big.
Report buzzer September 6, 2012 1:45 PM BST
According to betfairs own stats it still pays to back all the drifters at the off BSP, non triers obviously included here, rather than backing the steamers at BFSP when the money is already down!
Everyone says 'you could tell that wasn't trying' after a big drifter loses but no mention when the big drifter comes in.
Report TRD.Racing September 6, 2012 1:46 PM BST
live If you have a horse as a 6/1 shot and the actual price is 10/1,by definition you have value,chances are you are also about to back a loser
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 1:46 PM BST
Here are five golden rules point to follow if you want to be a successful punter:

1. Only bet on what you know

2. Learn how to manage your bankroll and stake accordingly

3. Understand that a good bet does not always win and a bad bet does not always lose

4. Don't chase your losses, just move on to the next opportunity

5. Never place a bet unless you are confident the odds are in your favour
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 1:48 PM BST
"live If you have a horse as a 6/1 shot and the actual price is 10/1,by definition you have value,chances are you are also about to back a loser"

You only have value if your assessment of the horse being a 6-1 shot is correct.
Report buzzer September 6, 2012 1:51 PM BST
Joined:
04 Nov 05
| Topic/replies: 9,615 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
I don't think there are many straight punters who
are paying PC, and I'm not paying it. I may be wrong
though.


You're wrong there ken. Layers can easily fall into the PC trap, having long good runs before variance kicks in and when you're snared it's difficult to get out, paying on the good weeks but having to take the bad weeks with no recompense hence why many left here. The big leagues are fine for liquidity on match odds, over/under 2.5 but even in those leagues side markets have suffered badly.
Report TRD.Racing September 6, 2012 1:52 PM BST
Of course,but nobody is good enough to price up a race and say it's a bet at say 6/1,but not at 11/2.

If I make it a bet at 6/1,you might make it a bet at 5/1,one persons value is another persons under priced horse
Report buzzer September 6, 2012 1:56 PM BST
Of course,but nobody is good enough to price up a race and say it's a bet at say 6/1,but not at 11/2.

If I make it a bet at 6/1,you might make it a bet at 5/1,one persons value is another persons under priced horse


The one who's correct the vast majority of the time will come out ahead over the long term though. If you can consistently lay 6-1 shots at 5-1 you'll, obviously, be a long term winner.
Report RMB © September 6, 2012 1:59 PM BST
The best value markets by a mile are horse racing based on asymmetric information where a horse can be a 3/1 chance trading at 10 times the price. Problem is only a few people KNOW.
Report Darlo Bantam September 6, 2012 2:15 PM BST
The horse racing markets also have the greater volatility and difference in pre-off prices. You have far more chance of getting matched at what you perceive as value.
Report kenilworth September 6, 2012 2:41 PM BST
Good posts here today, wspecially liv4 and buzzer.(I'm bound
to say that as they are basically agree with me!)

Buzzer, re PC, I was referring to straight punters, not really those
laying big priced chances, but I don't disagree with you as I don't
know much about it that kind of betting.
Report Glasgow Brian September 6, 2012 3:02 PM BST
Ken

Got no idea at all how to price events - what about the true odds section in the RFO , is that any good ?
Report teo813 September 6, 2012 3:06 PM BST
Straight punters were not affected from the first PC (20%), but the new rules (40-60%) hurt them, too.
Report TRD.Racing September 6, 2012 3:36 PM BST
Buzzer If you back 5/1 shots at 6/1 you will only win in the long term if the horse wins.

Getting good value losers does not pay the bills
Report maas September 6, 2012 3:39 PM BST
Laugh
Report buzzer September 6, 2012 3:44 PM BST
Oh christ
Report Darlo Bantam September 6, 2012 3:47 PM BST

Sep 6, 2012 -- 3:36PM, TRD.Racing wrote:


Buzzer If you back 5/1 shots at 6/1 you will only win in the long term if the horse wins.Getting good value losers does not pay the bills


Think you need to re-read that first sentence again.

Report maas September 6, 2012 3:50 PM BST
buzzer, dont you ever get bored? I stopped bothering giving advice about 3 years ago
Report kenilworth September 6, 2012 3:56 PM BST
Glasgow Brian, I had a look at that about 2 years ago and
found it a bit erratic, and just let it go. I've got a copy
this week so I'll have another look this evening. GL.
Report joshua tree September 6, 2012 4:08 PM BST
Interesting thread.....

Whilst I wouldnt disagree with Kens points, nonetheless imo there is a lot of subjectivity in pricing up games. Quoting the example on here, the Madrid/City game is obviously priced with no team news...........

A lot of punters would aubscribe to the view of finding winners at the best price......in effect this is " semi " value betting, and I do find myself taking this approach far more than is generally recommended. Whilst I wont be placing a bet on the Madrid/City game just now, my own opinion is that City may well take a " park the bus " mentality to the Bernabau, and I would defo be looking to back the draw at best price nearer the time.
Report TRD.Racing September 6, 2012 4:22 PM BST
buzzer Why the oh Christ patronising remark.

maas I don't need advice from anyone,being making this game pay for over 20 years
Report buzzer September 6, 2012 4:27 PM BST
It's not patronising in any way!
If you can lay 6-1 shots at 5-1 you win long term, no ifs or buts about it end of story.
If, as you say, you've been making it pay for over 20 years but fail to understand this simple, basic fact you must be the most fortunate person alive and are also long odds on to lose the lot over the next 20 years
Report TRD.Racing September 6, 2012 4:39 PM BST
Not fortunate,just a good judge and zero chance of giving it all back.

We will leave it at that.

Have a good day
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 4:43 PM BST
In reply to Joshua...

Of course there is a lot of subjectivity in pricing up games - as punters all we can do is try and assess as best we can what the theoretical price should be. And every punter, bookmaker and statistician will price a given outcome differently. (If we all agreed on what the odds should be there would be no opportunities to place a favourable bet.)

In order to maximise profit we simply need to get as close as we can to the theoretically correct price.  The tricky part is there is no way of knowing exactly what the true odds actually are so this is easier said than done.
Report joshua tree September 6, 2012 4:56 PM BST
In order to maximise profit we simply need to get as close as we can to the theoretically correct price.  The tricky part is there is no way of knowing exactly what the true odds actually are so this is easier said than done.

In which case.....backing at the best price available would by default be either the nearest to the theoretical correct price, or in fact exceed it by the greatest margin?
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 5:00 PM BST
Not necessarily, because you might be better off laying the bet.
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 5:03 PM BST
Just because it's the best price available does not mean it is a good price!
Report joshua tree September 6, 2012 5:06 PM BST
or backing what you would lay??

A case in point is the Spartak match that has just finished.....draw was backed all the way down to 1.01 and got turned over. The amount of injury time was scandalous on top of a very soft penalty ...... how would I know that laying the draw after 90 mins was in fact value?? What indicators are there?
Report joshua tree September 6, 2012 5:07 PM BST
Just because it's the best price available does not mean it is a good price!

And if it wins?
Report Bingo..... September 6, 2012 5:17 PM BST
Hello

Alternatively you could just use oddschecker and look for prices that are out of sync with the other bookmakers. In this day and age there is enough information out there to use, that you don't need to be able to price correctly.
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 7:59 PM BST
Just because it's the best price available does not mean it is a good price!

And if it wins?


Whether an individual bet wins or not is actually irrelevant.

For example, say I'd foolishly bet on Liverpool to beat Arsenal last weekend at 11/10.  If Arsenal's two goalscoring efforts had hit the post and Liverpool had won a dodgy penalty that would not have changed the fact it was a bad bet. I would have just got lucky.

If you can beat the odds consistently you will make money, if you can't you won't.  Understanding this simple fact is the key to being a successful punter.
Report joshua tree September 6, 2012 8:42 PM BST
beating the odds I would agree with ..... however if you have the happy knack of finding winners and making a profit, then you are actually getting the value without conciously looking for it.

Interesting you should mention the Liverpool/Arsenal game.....from memory the home win was actually shorter on here than it was at a lot of the bookies pre match.
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 9:02 PM BST
If anyone has the knack of finding winners and making a profit sounds like they are doing something right, but only time will tell whether it's through luck or judgement.

It's us punters who are effectively setting the odds by dictating the flow of money on each outcome which in turn dictates the odds a bookmaker will offer. Very difficult to find any decent value from a bookmaker because the odds are **** in their favour, but I believe they use Betfair as a gauge for their pricing.
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 9:04 PM BST
That was R I G G E D.

Strange word to censor, are they trying to tell us something?
Report TRD.Racing September 6, 2012 9:16 PM BST
live At what price would Liverpool have been a bet 11/8.6/4,7/4,2/1 ,9/4
Report Live4 September 6, 2012 9:36 PM BST
I wouldn't have been backing them at anything under the 7/4 mark.

Possession was even and whilst Liverpool had more attempts on goal they lacked any cutting edge and never looked like scoring.

Easy in hindsight, but how many games did Liverpool win at home last season?  31%. Or less than 1 in 3! How they could be rated at 50% to beat top four opposition with an even more toothless side than last season is beyond me.

Most people don't pay enough attention to the odds and just lump on who they think will win regardless, which is why such opportunities arise week after week.
Report DaveEdwards September 6, 2012 9:42 PM BST
As Ken already knows I agree with him 100% on the pricing issue.

I do think it's ok to have an opinion on who will win and bet according to that providing you are on the right side of the pricing. Arriving at your opinion is up to the individual of course.
Report Andriy September 6, 2012 10:00 PM BST
Points 2 onwards are easy enough, the problem is always the pricing up - use a model or instinct based on previous matches? And is getting 95% accuracy a step in the right direction, look at someone like Tobermoreys ratings, there's regularly a big discrepancy. And if the means of pricing is always getting so close to bookie prices, then the chances of seeing a 20% pricing difference is very small with bets being very few and far between, particularly for football (maybe valid for horseracing though).
Report kenilworth September 7, 2012 12:01 AM BST
Pointless bringing up L'pool v Arsenal last weekend, someone
said 'easy with hindsight' then proceeds to highlight the
fact that L'pool won only 31% of home matches last season !
As the man says 'Easy with hindsight' !
--------------------------------------------------------------
Dave Edwards, you say 'ok to back your opinion if you are
on the right side of the odds', presumably 'no bet', otherwise ?
Spot on really in the afore mentioned match, Fancy L'pool ?
odds on, so no bet. Fancy Arsenal ? big price, back Arsenal.
Report DaveEdwards September 7, 2012 12:08 AM BST
Yes Ken, I'll happily pass a proposition where the odds are good, but I don't believe will take place.

Obviously there will reach a point where anything is worth a bet if the odds are ridiculously beyond what they should be, but that doesn't tend to be the case in reality with prices usually hovering around the expected market price.
Report tobermory September 7, 2012 1:53 AM BST
good thread
Report expat09 September 7, 2012 6:14 AM BST
Ken excellent thread. One point however. In your opening set of rules
you state

5) Only bet if you have at least a 20%
in your favour, that is for example 6/5
about an 1/1 chance.




Which is fair enough. But later on when talking about Real Madrid at 1.7 you say



...probably a backer. Is that just a guess or not ?

I would be a backer at 1.85, a layer at 1.60.




To follow " Rule 5 " surely you would not be a backer
until the price was 2.04 and a layer when it was 1.36
Report expat09 September 7, 2012 6:17 AM BST
Sorry I stand corrected. Just done the calcs again
Report mug1 September 7, 2012 8:58 AM BST
Live4







06 Sep 12 13:46
Joined:


18 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 1,033 | Blogger: Live4's blog



Here are five golden rules point to follow if you want to be a successful punter:

1. Only bet on what you know

2. Learn how to manage your bankroll and stake accordingly

3. Understand that a good bet does not always win and a bad bet does not always lose

4. Don't chase your losses, just move on to the next opportunity

5. Never place a bet unless you are confident the odds are in your favour


Rate reply:





very sensible comments , most of what else is written on this topic is of little use to a newbie punter
Report Live4 September 7, 2012 9:38 AM BST
Message to Ken:

You misunderstood me... when I said "easy in hindsight" I meant it's easy to tell if a given bet is good or bad after the event (regardless of it winning or losing).

I don't have a crystal ball but Liverpool's home record last season should give us a clue that 11/10 for a home win against Arsenal was rather optimistic!
Report MrBaboon September 7, 2012 10:19 AM BST
Stating the obvious is what the thread title should be, here are a few more obvious remarks

1/ Only bet what you can afford to lose
2/ Betting is a mugs game
3/ Only place money on winning bets
4/ Don't chase
5/ Only bet on what you know
6/ Most people don't want to spend hours studying form/analysing stats they just want the thrill from a winning bet and don't always seek the best possible price

Oh and good luck!
Report high_lander September 7, 2012 10:37 AM BST
"How to win betting on football."

Read the advice from Betfair forumite's - then do the exact opposite.
Report MrBaboon September 7, 2012 12:32 PM BST
Ken at what price do you think the Faroe Islands are value against Germany tonight ?

I think they are currently 200/1.....so are you saying it is a value bet if you can get 250/1 ? (Ignoring trading opportunities).
Report stu September 7, 2012 12:48 PM BST
A couple of points to add in to the discussion:

1/ Specialisation - I've often found in the past, pick a market and study it to death, stay with it, is the best strategy. Ignore all other markets. Only drawback with this is largely psychological, hard not to get very bored (even when winning!), and be tempted by other markets (especially when it looks like value).

2/ A lot of heavily backed selections in horse racing get beaten - I know because I used to use this market as a guide for other activity. Not sure whether that's changed more recently, but I gave up using heavy gambles as a good measure. Too many stuffed after getting backed off the boards.
Report stu September 7, 2012 12:50 PM BST
To add, I know that latter point wasn't about football, but just trading generally.
Report stu September 7, 2012 1:04 PM BST
An interesting question for you footy analysts:

Which is more crucial in determining results on football markets

a) The average previous results across a large sample of different teams.
b) The averages that relate solely to that team/manager.

A tricky, but crucial, question. I think a lot assume a) but is it true?
Report stu September 7, 2012 1:05 PM BST
Note: when I say 'averages' that could of course mean 'statistics/analysis' in the wider sense...
Report smithy91 September 7, 2012 1:06 PM BST
biscuit-Smithy91 would be wetting himself at your 9/4 and would be arbing the hell out of our prices!

nice thread.

i didn't realise until last season that you can be a full time trader by betting on liverpool football club alone.

check the graph on wales vs belgium match odds thats one way of going about itGrin
Report smithy91 September 7, 2012 10:51 PM BST
belgiumCool
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