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But Poker in my opinion has got nothing to do with sports bets, i cant figure out the connection
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I keep records lalenda, I think you should too.
If you win or lose then ask yourself did you make the right decision? Learn by your mistakes. I adopt the same principles to sports betting. |
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Poker is very similar in that you have a bankroll, and each bet could equate to playing a round of poker, the flop/turn/river can be goals or HT/FT type of thing. It is very easy to make similarities.
As far as Kenil still touting the 'you have to beat the odds to turn a profit' that only rings true in certain methods. If I was taking a prematch position on every bet I made then yes I would have to beat the odds but an exchange is completely different because they are free markets you can enter and leave at will and you choose your own odds and your own ranges. Trader11 makes some good points, his 1% is aimed at larger banks than your average betfairian but you can use your whole bank in a trade where only 10% would be at risk if the trade went against you. There are a few strategies you can use here to win money, some are easier to make profit long term through practice and patience. 1. You judge prices and bet on discrepancies (very hard and prices are always discretional) 2. You hope for lucky streaks with selective picks (probably the most popular way to lose money on here but can be done) 3. You play for percentages and watch them build over time. For example: You put £100 on U2.5 at 2.42 and lay it off for equal green at 2.38 making between £1 and £2. When you start using this method every tick is important and when you would normally pile in at current market price you can back something at 1.37 and lay it at 1.35 and have your lay matched before your back equating to very low-risk profit. Now for anybody to say that price is all important in method 1 they would be correct but in method 3 price is insignificant, the more important factors are time, exposure and eventual probability of selection traded winning. Method 2 would be the equivalent of starting with a tenner and finding 100 games in a row with 1 goal in, very possible but often foiled. Ovalman is giving some good advice, writing down bets in similar styles together will help you realise mistakes and avoid them in the future. |
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Ovalman surely the compiler has to copy exchange prices just with a bigger over round otherwise arbers will rebalance the books for them.
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I'm not your regular punter loadedgimp and TBH I don't punt. I've had 14 regular bets in my last 3 months P/L and 10 of those I know for a fact were were matched betting from a free £5 newspaper offer that I and my wife took advantage of on several different branches.
In my Ayr thread which I mentioned, some arbers took advantage of my prices which guaranteed me more money but it all could have fallen flat on me and TBF I hit lucky when Ayr scored first so I could lay off on here. The game ended 1-1 but if Glentoran had have scored first then I'd have egg on my face and a few quid down. I still stand by my assumption the bookies called this wrong so if one person calls the shots for a site then they can't always get it right. If others' like my WH friend follows suit then it's in our favour to exploit them. |
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And very well thought out post above LG, I do trade pre which was what I hoped in the Ayr game but the markets settled out to what the bookies planned and I ran with my selection. Not the way I had planned it but I was prepared to run until the final whistle such as I thought the bookies got it wrong.
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Work out how to price up events.
You may then spot a discrepancy, value, whatever you want to call it. I follow Rugby League and had a few great seasons when Widnes were in the Coop League. Even Friday a few of us were on Widnes plus 14 at Salford. Laughing all the way to Curry mile. Keep to your limits, Do not get involved out of boredom, Wait for team news, Do not get involved when drunk, Keep records,you will only con yourself otherwise. Take Rugby League, there are some quality analysts on Local BBC Radio stations. When Wigan got knocked out of Challenge Cup, Warrington were still 11-10 outright, this is the sort of price I like. Be prepared to take a hit too. And if you want to see what long term betting can do take a look at the graffiti on any toilet wall in any bookies...or stay on here for a while. |
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Keep to your limits,
Do not get involved out of boredom, Wait for team news, Do not get involved when drunk, Keep records,you will only con yourself otherwise great advice |
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Yeah well, I can tell you that the only way i lost my money was not because i bet wrongly a lot of times, but because I couldnt control myself after a loss, or randomly put all ins in 1.10 or lower odds.
As for a better I have been seeing my wins/losses, and i tend to miss 3 to 5 bets in 20.What I think my main problem is, because I am trying to get the 200 euros I have lost due to all ins or whatever, I usually bet with very short values,5euros the max....and makes me think what i could achieve having a bank of like 500+euros |
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Actually I have just been looking the statistics:
Since I returned to bets, out of 87 bets i got profit on 69 of them, equal to say that i get 79 % of my bets right... |
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have a look at my thread in general betting mate. with you saying think what i could achieve with a £500 bank it could be worthwhile for you.
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tonight we had fluminense 2.46 into 2.18. green before kickoff
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if you really wants money. then i think you should follow little bit your own rules. i start with 400 euro and end up with 1908 euros in a month. so my profit is 1508 euros in a month. i am new in betfair but not in betting. all i do is lay at 0:0 in full time in soccer. it gives me 10/20 euros in return on each bet. all you need to find a match where score is certen. those who are little bit familiar with soccer they know which match will be score thats it.....you dont need to be expert. just look around in soccer world. Thank you
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G Bettor that is quite of a risk even tho laying 0 0 full time is a good bet...sooner or later you can hit a 0 0
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the william hill guy who sets the odds for northern irish football
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Players to hit Wood.
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