Football
As brilliant as he has been for the last 18 months, you have to say this has all the hallmarks of a player who gets a huge contract on the back of one exceptional season and then reverts to type. In America they would call it a 'contract year', when players are approaching free agency and suddenly produce their best ever, injury-free season.
Obviously Man City can afford to write him off if he's a disaster but if I was any other club I wouldn't go near him, bearing in mind the age, cost and downside. In fact even if I was Man C I wouldn't bother, they already have plenty of quality up front and surely could target a younger player like Hulk if they wanted.
Jul 9, 2012 -- 12:09PM, noland2_ wrote:
plus, he is far more than just goals. his movement, touch and awareness is awesome - the cnt
it really isn't.
The last 18 months represent a player who is injury free.
The world and his wife knows about RvP's injury record, and that is reflected in his goal tallys.
Though I personally hope he is sold now. He's always been an arrogant sh1t.
On last season's form he'd score that number well before Xmas!
Ignorant stuff KR.
The last 18 months represent a player who is injury free.
Ignorant in what sense Sintonian? That's exactly the point of my post - what do you think is the likelihood of Van Persie continuing this injury-free run? Slim I would say.
Thats why he is moving.
Makes sense really.
we need a goals per game ratio
Why though? Surely his goals per season give a good reflection of his goals per game, coupled with the number of games he is fit to play. If he completes his Man City career having only averaged 8 goals per season in 12 starts, I don't think the goals per game ratio will be any consolation for the 70m invested (assuming 5 year contract @ 200k per week and 20m transfer fee).
Its only now he's on his own that he's scoring lots.
It took Wenger 5 years to realise it!
KR, you haven't included the games played as it would have made a nonsense of your "contract year" theory
I don't see why...the 'contract year' phenomenon is as much about fitness as it is about performance. It is remarkable how often a normally injury-prone player is suddenly injury-free in the season approaching free agency when he knows it's his last big contract that could set him up for life. Not saying that is definitely the case with RVP, maybe just coincidence, but it is a well known pattern across the US Sports. In fact I just googled it and it has its own wikipedia entry
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_year_phenomenon
An archetype example of this phenomenon was NBA player Eric Dampier. In the year prior to his 'contract year' with the Golden State Warriors, Dampier averaged 8.2ppg and 6.6rpg in 82 games (all starts). The following (contract) year, Dampier upped these numbers to 12.3ppg and 12.0rpg (4th in the league) - both career highs - in 74 games (all starts), and was awarded a lengthy and lucrative contract. The following year with the Dallas Mavericks, Dampier's production dipped to 9.2ppg and 8.5rpg in 59 games (56 starts), albeit in an injury-interrupted season.
Obviously it could be pointed out that RVP isn't actually a free agent this summer, but with the different rules in football of course players are almost free agents with 1 year remaining as that is often when their club has to sell.
RMB, according to OPTA, RvP created more goalscoring opps than any other player in Europe.
Is it possible to access any OPTA stats from their web site or is it for professional organisations only?
we need a goals per game ratio
Why though? Surely his goals per season give a good reflection of his goals per game, coupled with the number of games he is fit to play. If he completes his Man City career having only averaged 8 goals per season in 12 starts, I don't think the goals per game ratio will be any consolation for the 70m invested (assuming 5 year contract @ 200k per week and 20m transfer fee).
I know what you are saying about his injuries but the buying club will be looking at it saying if we get 25 goals a season for three years then he will be worth the 70million.
he has had some freakish injuries that saw him miss many games (eg breaking a toe after scoring against ManU in 06/07, Chiellinis tackle in an international friendly in 09/10). as a buying club it would depend whether those are viewed as typical of the player or unlikely to be repeated
If you exclude last season he only started in 112 league games in the previous 7 seasons.
18 months is a long time, enough to suggest he's over the injury troubles he once had
we got there in the end!
Well I'm not sure where you got, but here are RVP's full career stats for league appearances, goals and goals per game:
Year Apps (As Sub) Goals GPG
2003 23 (7) 9 0.39
2004 28 (11) 6 0.21
2005 26 (14) 5 0.19
2006 24 (11) 5 0.21
2007 22 (5) 11 0.50
2008 15 (2) 7 0.47
2009 28 (4) 11 0.39
2010 16 (2) 9 0.56
2011 25 (6) 18 0.72
2012 38 (1) 30 0.79
So whichever way you look at it, he has just posted career highs for Appearances, Starts, Goals, and Goals Per Game. He played every league game for Arsenal this season having never got beyond 28 appearances before.
Both in terms of performance and fitness he has been better in the last 18 months than at any point in his career. Players like this are typically subject to a regression to the mean and I think this makes him a very risky buy for the likely fee.
He might regress to being a worse player, or he might regress to being injured more often. In my opinion this makes him a poor value acquisition, although of course there are certain clubs for whom value is not really a consideration.
