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Knight Rider
09 Jul 12 12:01
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Date Joined: 22 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 7,474 | Blogger: Knight Rider's blog
9-6-5-5-11-7-11-9-18-30

As brilliant as he has been for the last 18 months, you have to say this has all the hallmarks of a player who gets a huge contract on the back of one exceptional season and then reverts to type.  In America they would call it a 'contract year', when players are approaching free agency and suddenly produce their best ever, injury-free season.

Obviously Man City can afford to write him off if he's a disaster but if I was any other club I wouldn't go near him, bearing in mind the age, cost and downside.  In fact even if I was Man C I wouldn't bother, they already have plenty of quality up front and surely could target a younger player like Hulk if they wanted.

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Replies: 40
By:
ianhamilton.
When: 09 Jul 12 12:07
Wow yeh pretty crap actually
By:
lybertyne
When: 09 Jul 12 12:07
he's a brilliant player and can get 20-25+ every season.  his problem is that he's injury-prone.  last season was remarkable in that he didn't do himself a mischief.
By:
noland2_
When: 09 Jul 12 12:09
plus, he is far more than just goals. his movement, touch and awareness is awesome - the cnt Sad
By:
RMB ©
When: 09 Jul 12 12:12

Jul 9, 2012 -- 12:09PM, noland2_ wrote:


plus, he is far more than just goals. his movement, touch and awareness is awesome - the cnt


it really isn't.

By:
sintonian
When: 09 Jul 12 12:13
Ignorant stuff KR.

The last 18 months represent a player who is injury free.

The world and his wife knows about RvP's injury record, and that is reflected in his goal tallys.

Though I personally hope he is sold now. He's always been an arrogant sh1t.
By:
billy
When: 09 Jul 12 12:14
Is or isn't.... was still a very funny post Laugh
By:
sintonian
When: 09 Jul 12 12:15
RMB, according to OPTA, RvP created more goalscoring opps than any other player in Europe.
By:
RMB ©
When: 09 Jul 12 12:37
I meant he really isn't as in he's not a see you next Tuesday on the basis of wanting to leave. Think he's been a great servant and a great professional. I don't see why there won't be a bidding war for him if he's only 20m.
By:
RMB ©
When: 09 Jul 12 12:40
I think KR means that he would be an over rated acquisition, he turns 29 at the start of the season, and if I were City I'd probably look to get him, if not held to ransom, but o/w with their resources look for Falcoa, 3 and a half years younger and a monster with no injury proneness. I'm surprised with all the talk of going to Turin, I assumed RVP would stay around in the Prem, or is he hoping Real or Barca come in for him? Wouldn't be surprised to see Jose or Barca come a knocking.
By:
RMB ©
When: 09 Jul 12 12:44
Nathaniel for the Arc? Can't see it personally.
By:
jed.davison
When: 09 Jul 12 12:44
If I was van Persie, I wouldn't even be thinking about leaving England, assuming he leaves the Arsenal of course. He will never play against more badly-organised teams, amid such shambolic defending, than he will in the Premier League. He wouldn't get ten goals a season, injury-free, in any other of the major European Leagues.
By:
mikenichols
When: 09 Jul 12 12:47
What, in Spain, Germany, even Italy?

On last season's form he'd score that number well before Xmas!
By:
sintonian
When: 09 Jul 12 12:54
RMB, dont want to upset you here but reckon there is a chance RVP is doing a Rooney! He wants more wedge from us.
By:
jed.davison
When: 09 Jul 12 12:56
Can't see that sint, perhaps he just genuinely wants to play for a club that has a chance of winning something.
By:
RMB ©
When: 09 Jul 12 13:03
Probably very true sint, good on him too!
By:
David Icke
When: 09 Jul 12 13:53
sell him. he plays for himself and nobody else. 1 good season and one everythinks he is world class. never done anything for holland, and only shone when all the team was playing to set him up.
By:
Knight Rider
When: 09 Jul 12 18:21

Ignorant stuff KR.

The last 18 months represent a player who is injury free.


Ignorant in what sense Sintonian?  That's exactly the point of my post - what do you think is the likelihood of Van Persie continuing this injury-free run?  Slim I would say.

By:
Marxist-Leninist
When: 09 Jul 12 18:24
we need a goals per game ratio
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 09 Jul 12 18:25
RVP knows that Bendtner is back at the club and will probably take his place in the team.

Thats why he is moving.

Makes sense really.
By:
lolo87
When: 09 Jul 12 18:27
Mr Eboue...That was a joke wasn't it? Bit hard to tell on this lol
By:
Knight Rider
When: 09 Jul 12 18:29

we need a goals per game ratio


Why though?  Surely his goals per season give a good reflection of his goals per game, coupled with the number of games he is fit to play.  If he completes his Man City career having only averaged 8 goals per season in 12 starts, I don't think the goals per game ratio will be any consolation for the 70m invested (assuming 5 year contract @ 200k per week and 20m transfer fee).

By:
Mr Eboue
When: 09 Jul 12 18:34
Silly
By:
Aspro
When: 09 Jul 12 18:34
Great player imo; hate to admit it but would love to see Spurs nick him
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 09 Jul 12 18:37
I bet you would Aspro! Laugh
By:
Knight Rider
When: 09 Jul 12 18:39
Aspro, jesting aside, if that deal somehow came up I think it would be a disastrous move for the above reasons.  It's fine for teams with unlimited funds but for the other 99% of clubs who would be diverting that money from elsewhere, I think it makes little sense.
By:
Marxist-Leninist
When: 09 Jul 12 18:39
KR, you haven't included the games played as it would have made a nonsense of your "contract year" theory
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 09 Jul 12 18:40
Lets not forget RVP played most of his career as a support striker behind Henry/Adebayor.

Its only now he's on his own that he's scoring lots.

It took Wenger 5 years to realise it! LaughCry
By:
Aspro
When: 09 Jul 12 18:43
I'm a big (quiet) fan of RVP KR... didn't rate him that highly a few years ago and had a very strong debate with a gooner over this. I told him I'd give him my full attention and to be fair, I had to bow down... the guy is class.
By:
Knight Rider
When: 09 Jul 12 18:46

KR, you haven't included the games played as it would have made a nonsense of your "contract year" theory


I don't see why...the 'contract year' phenomenon is as much about fitness as it is about performance.  It is remarkable how often a normally injury-prone player is suddenly injury-free in the season approaching free agency when he knows it's his last big contract that could set him up for life.  Not saying that is definitely the case with RVP, maybe just coincidence, but it is a well known pattern across the US Sports.  In fact I just googled it and it has its own wikipedia entry Laugh

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_year_phenomenon

An archetype example of this phenomenon was NBA player Eric Dampier. In the year prior to his 'contract year' with the Golden State Warriors, Dampier averaged 8.2ppg and 6.6rpg in 82 games (all starts). The following (contract) year, Dampier upped these numbers to 12.3ppg and 12.0rpg (4th in the league) - both career highs - in 74 games (all starts), and was awarded a lengthy and lucrative contract. The following year with the Dallas Mavericks, Dampier's production dipped to 9.2ppg and 8.5rpg in 59 games (56 starts), albeit in an injury-interrupted season.


Obviously it could be pointed out that RVP isn't actually a free agent this summer, but with the different rules in football of course players are almost free agents with 1 year remaining as that is often when their club has to sell.

By:
Storm Alert
When: 09 Jul 12 19:50
sintonian
RMB, according to OPTA, RvP created more goalscoring opps than any other player in Europe.


Is it possible to access any OPTA stats from their web site or is it for professional organisations only?
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 09 Jul 12 21:26
His goal tally might not look good but I'll think you'll find his goals per game average has remained pretty consistent throughout his career. Anyway, he's in his prime so why shouldn't he be scoring more now.
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 09 Jul 12 22:31
Knight Rider     09 Jul 12 18:29 
we need a goals per game ratio

Why though?  Surely his goals per season give a good reflection of his goals per game, coupled with the number of games he is fit to play.  If he completes his Man City career having only averaged 8 goals per season in 12 starts, I don't think the goals per game ratio will be any consolation for the 70m invested (assuming 5 year contract @ 200k per week and 20m transfer fee).


I know what you are saying about his injuries but the buying club will be looking at it saying if we get 25 goals a season for three years then he will be worth the 70million.
By:
mcfc1981
When: 10 Jul 12 00:14
once upon a time MR EBOUE said he will eat his hat if any arsenal players ever join city Laugh
By:
sugarfoot
When: 10 Jul 12 00:51
his goals per game/minute record has always been very good

he has had some freakish injuries that saw him miss many games (eg breaking a toe after scoring against ManU in 06/07, Chiellinis tackle in an international friendly in 09/10).  as a buying club it would depend whether those are viewed as typical of the player or unlikely to be repeated
By:
Ell
When: 10 Jul 12 00:51
194 league games, 45 of these as sub ,96 goals

If you exclude last season he only started in 112 league games in the previous 7 seasons.
By:
Marxist-Leninist
When: 10 Jul 12 08:59
we got there in the end! Cool
By:
sintonian
When: 10 Jul 12 09:21
Storm, I follow OPTA on Twitter. They post numerous stats. All free.
By:
DonNo1
When: 10 Jul 12 10:02
Ignorant in what sense Sintonian?  That's exactly the point of my post - what do you think is the likelihood of Van Persie continuing this injury-free run?  Slim I would say.

18 months is a long time, enough to suggest he's over the injury troubles he once had
By:
Knight Rider
When: 10 Jul 12 12:13

we got there in the end!


Well I'm not sure where you got, but here are RVP's full career stats for league appearances, goals and goals per game:


Year    Apps    (As Sub)    Goals    GPG
2003    23    (7)    9    0.39
2004    28    (11)    6    0.21
2005    26    (14)    5    0.19
2006    24    (11)    5    0.21
2007    22    (5)    11    0.50
2008    15    (2)    7    0.47
2009    28    (4)    11    0.39
2010    16    (2)    9    0.56
2011    25    (6)    18    0.72
2012    38    (1)    30    0.79

So whichever way you look at it, he has just posted career highs for Appearances, Starts, Goals, and Goals Per Game.  He played every league game for Arsenal this season having never got beyond 28 appearances before. 

Both in terms of performance and fitness he has been better in the last 18 months than at any point in his career.  Players like this are typically subject to a regression to the mean and I think this makes him a very risky buy for the likely fee. 

He might regress to being a worse player, or he might regress to being injured more often.  In my opinion this makes him a poor value acquisition, although of course there are certain clubs for whom value is not really a consideration.

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