EURO 2012 OUTRIGHT

£6 Portugal '6.6

£2 Greece@70
£3 @65

odd they are same price as kick off level with nearly an hour gone

£10 Italy@11
£12 England@10

ffs

atrocius timing there

still Italy gone out too much, will try £8 @13

£2 lay Greece@120

£2 Greece @850

£30 Germany @2.94

might still lay them later if they come in anymore

Job done,Germans outclassed the Greeks but fair play to greece they made a fight of it for a few minutes,lol.
Stats from years ago are quite meaningless,you can only judge whats out there at the time and greece without their captain looked a bit disjointed.

Next stop Spain/France,a bust up in the French camp after the Swedish defeat,good news for Spain.
Technically the best side and should find a way of winning this especially as some of the French may not be in the right frame of mind.

Settled Bets + +£25.71 so max red = £525.71

Got these bets matched from earlier

£8 Italy@13
£6 Portugal@6.8

But now decided to side with Spain and England (while keeping France reasonably high)

£25 Spain@3.65 (but should be by kick off and make Spain +£250)
£10 England@11.5
£4  France@15

Germany	£379.45
Spain	£186.10
Portugal	£89.40
England	£134.89
Italy	£255.50
France	£230.19

£3.90 France@'150

and 10p @130

Job done,to easy for the Spanish,writing was on the wall after Frances defeat to Sweden.
Spanish are the team to beat,forget Germany and the rest,these boys can play.
Portugal cant defend and are in for a right tonking in the semi.
Thats one finalist decided.

Next up England v italy.
Tough call this one but just get that feeling that that rivalry between England and the Germans will happen yet again,
England have a good defense,wont be much in this one,might well be extra time job,hopefully not pens.

sounds like you are doing better than me 247lol

just looked a bit obvious a lot of games,bet a lot of punters thought that was a steal on the Spanish tonight

No bet England v Italy,just hoping England can play their game and keep surprising us,funny no one expected much this time but they have already won the group.
Its different in the one off games,teams have to show what theyre made of.so hopefully everyones fit and they can do just that.

Settled Bets now -£3.29 as wasted loads on France so Max Red = £496.71

Italy seem too big @13 so will go level on them with £22 bet. Seems odd they are 1.5 pts bigger than England when they are joint favs to qualify

Spain	£251.89
Germany	£401.45
Portugal	£68.49
England	£114.00
Italy	£8.07

Also put in £5 keep bets of both Italy & England @48 in case of a comeback from 0-2 or a late equalizer as can't be here for match .Not likely but would improve things a lot if that happened and cheap to do.

Spain nearly evens to beat Portugal,fs that must be the gift of the tournament.
For all his qualities Ronaldos no Maradonna and he wont get many chances.
Do we actually think these guys will stop Spain ?,i cant see it at all.
Unfortunately one of the worlds greatest players today plays for a pretty duff side,they cant defend and we know what happens to teams that dont have a good defense against Spain.
Fully expect Spain to score at least 3 here.
They mullered France in 2nd gear,looked like a training session at times.

Jun 23, 2012 -- 8:03PM, 247lol wrote:

Spain nearly evens to beat Portugal,fs that must be the gift of the tournament.For all his qualities Ronaldos no Maradonna and he wont get many chances.Do we actually think these guys will stop Spain ?,i cant see it at all.Unfortunately one of the worlds greatest players today plays for a pretty duff side,they cant defend and we know what happens to teams that dont have a good defense against Spain.Fully expect Spain to score at least 3 here.They mullered France in 2nd gear,looked like a training session at times.

Spain were 2.08 against France after 10 mins when they should have been circa 1.75. I'd watch before you invested in Spain vs Portugal, Portugal look a lot more dangerous than France despite the difference in tournament SPs.

Portugal have the perfect shape to play against Spain, if they push Nani and Ronaldo right up on the Spain fullbacks it will give Spain a real problem.

Hope they dont alter their shape like France and Croatia did.

247lol, about 1 year ago Portugal beat Spain 4-0 in a friendly match, the teams were very much the same and I can tell you both teams play for serious and the spanish were not happy at all to lose by such big numbers. Ok, every match is different but it's not easy for Spain at all (on paper).

spain don't care about friendlies, you can tell by watching the players, they are so obviously saving themselves for their clubs. by contrast, every national side desperately wants to beat spain.

croatia were fantastic against spain - imo that will be spain's toughest game of this tournament.

france were hopelessly outclassed and it will be the same with portugal - there's no way they'll stand up to spain, not a chance.

So Far lost £29.29 on settled bets

Spain	£276.59
Germany	£375.45
Portugal	£93.19
Italy	£32.77

If i levelled it up now could actually get out with a loss of £45

Good thread tobermory. Been pretty much against your main Spain pick (top team though) as I started with ante post a while back ...

Germany +1072
Field -171

... and had saver on Italy on eve of tourney (perceived value rather than form) ...

Germany +1028
Italy +577
Field -215

... but didn't get the split in the draw so gambled against England stuffing me twice and topped up on Italy as well ...

Germany +1006
Italy +852
Field -237

... so I'm looking for Portugal to knock out Spain in the semis to favour my green up options but that wouldn't suit you! Are you planning to stick or twist your red on Germany?

If I was you id leave a bit of your spain green on and red out the rest if you can get it to a manageable red. Germany are just too much of a threat to get to the final and then you are in all sorts of trouble.

Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
GermanyWinner 2012    4.6    £424.21    £1,527.16
SpainWinner 2012    3.85    £110.00    £313.50
ItalyWinner 2012    13    £65.15    £781.80

rmanyWinner 2012    3.4    £100.00    £240.00
GermanyWinner 2012    3.3    £224.21    £515.68

RMB ©
11 Jun 12 02:55

GL mate, cheers for the response. I've personally layed England and backed Italy, roughly 2.3 DNB. I couldn't have Spain at 3.8 before the tournament, nor Germany at 4.3 so felt the value lied with the Italians. Russia and Croatia have provided me with two nice wins in a current sea of losses, so not fairing too well either. Always good reads your threads. I got a large bet on pinny on France at 2.83 vs us a month ago, will make or break my Euros. My concern is the fact we've been written off the pressure is off and we will play some good football and get a result, would be typical.


Free rolling on Italy now. Really gutted I pulled out of the Portugal/Netherlands DNB. Italy, could they, will they, MAYBE :)

I don't think Italy are good enough to win it, their defence is too weak and they also struggle to score goals. Their midfield and general passing and attacking play is good though. I still cant see anyone beating Spain - they are the complete team and their current odds are incredibly good value in my opinion. They will win this easily, in a canter, without breaking sweat.

Well done England,reliable as ever,lol,pens again.
Back to Spain,as pointed out friendlies are pretty meaningless,seem to remember they totally outplayed England recently and lost.
Spain are the best side by a country mile,no arguement there.
It will take a lot of luck and a very good defensive performance to topple them.
Who they meet is a difficult one,Italy are technically very good but i think the German defense isnt that great,the greeks without their captain scored 2 against them.
Everyones talking up the Germans chances but Italy have gone under the radar a bit,poor results prior to the tournament,suddenly they have found top form.
The Italians have already drawn with Spain in the group stages,so no surprise to see them meet again in the final.

It seems to be overlooked that despite their complete
dominance of England from half-time onwards, Italy
came within an ace of being knocked out on penalties,
and I'm sure neither Spain or Germany would allow
that to happen. It's between them it seems to me.

It seems to be overlooked that despite their complete
dominance of England from half-time onwards, Italy
came within an ace of being knocked out on penalties,
and I'm sure neither Spain or Germany would allow
that to happen. It's between them it seems to me.

Kenilworth thinks his last post was so good he posted it twice
Good thread this though

the fact that the germans have had 2 days extra to prepare and not only that Italy's game went 120 mins is a huge plus for Germany.

Also portugal have had 2 days more rest than Spain.. Del Bosque says himself Spain are a bit jaded

expect the German tactics will be to make the Italians run all over the place to further tire them out.

Portugal look a bit of a one man team,if Spain shackle Ronaldo properly, there's not much else real quality in the portuguese team,  how many chances has Nani missed this tournament ?

It seems to be overlooked that despite their complete
dominance of England from half-time onwards, Italy
came within an ace of being knocked out on penalties,
and I'm sure neither Spain or Germany would allow
that to happen. It's between them it seems to me.

your forgetting that Germany nearly got knocked out by Denmark - there was a stonewall pen and red card the referee didnt give towards the end

Spain didn't fly through their Qualifying Group either

another point to bear in mind is the history between the semi finalists. Italy most certainly have the edge of Germany, and Portugal have a very good record v Spain. It shouldn't count, but these things do weigh on minds ahead of big games.

Not sure about that, Chief. Do the players think -Our national team hasn't beaten their national team in the last six meetings- or whatever? So it will affect the way we play?

Mind you, there are some very long stats stretching back for years in umpteen different sports.

It's a strange one but all winning/losing (or whatever) runs come to an end sooner or later. (Eng v Swe springs to mind).

I'd not be keen on dutching Spain and Germany at circa 2/5 personally. Though I'd not be keen to take them on either. Market looks spot on to me.

Chief Brody 26 Jun 12 14:15 
another point to bear in mind is the history between the semi finalists. Italy most certainly have the edge of Germany, and Portugal have a very good record v Spain. It shouldn't count, but these things do weigh on minds ahead of big games.





Just like England v Sweden and Spain v France

What you must remember here is theres always a lot of pre match psycology.
Spain jaded,lol,their match against france at times looked nothing more than a training session,how can they be jaded,rofl.
And what happened 20 years ago between 2 sides is totally meaningless,its swings and rounadabouts,different generations.
There havent been many players that were so good they could swing games,Maradonna and Messi are  certainly two,Ronaldo maybe,but will he get that many chances against a Spanish side that is technically sublime at times?.
I fancy Italys chances,theyve let in 2 goals in 4 games,good defense,and Balotelli looks like hes decided to behave himself,thats a huge plus,this guy is supremely talented,weve not seen the best of him yet.
And i believe for all their organisation and quality,you can get at this German defense.
I wouldnt read to much into Italy scraping past England,England probably would have drawn with any of the teams that night,thats the way they play,good defense but unfortunately the rest didnt turn up,same old story.

Jun 24, 2012 -- 7:42PM, PrinceRVP wrote:

If I was you id leave a bit of your spain green on and red out the rest if you can get it to a manageable red. Germany are just too much of a threat to get to the final and then you are in all sorts of trouble.

Thats pretty sound advice but i expectt i'll not do that

To make it less confusing i will just add the loss on settled bets to the red and knock it off the greens

So bank £500 as at start and will be + or - these figures

Germany	£404.74
Spain	£247.30
Portugal	£63.90
Italy	£3.48

£10 Portugal '7.2 which should get matched and £5 Italy same price which already is

I'd let it ride. If Germany wins then hats off to them and you'll have to take your medicine. If they get turned over by Italy or in the final, either of which is totally possible, then you're laughing.

Obviously the outright market is now increasingly effected by swings in each match.  Hopefully spain will qualify tonight and Italy will score first tomorrow which should give you a reasonable opportunity to reduce liability.

Fwiw - I've got a modest back of Spain from weeks ago and am letting it run.  They're missing Villa and over playing at times, but they retain the ball so well it's hard for teams to hurt them.  All this stuff about them being boring is music to my ears, it means teams are struggling to break them down.  I'm sure the Germans would give them a good game, but I'm still comfortable to be on Spain.  They've got the know how.  Let's see if Germany have when it matters most.

Best team won in the end tonight.
But that 2 extra days is obviously an advantage,so little wonder the Italian manager is complaining.
After 120 minutes against England it could  be a tall order against an energetic Germany tomorrow.

How do you conclude that?  Spain finished far stronger in extra time.

Spain looked very subdued for the opening 90 minutes,so much so that better distribution and finishing could have seen Portugal steal it.
But a few good substitutions and pure adrenalin saw Spain finally come to life and dominate extra time.

Yes Spain did have 64.4 % possession,but that spark wasnt there and they rarely threatened,those 3 substitutions saved Spain,they gave Spain better movement and fluidity to retain the ball for longer periods in extra time,hence making the Portugese breaks which had looked so dangerous less frequent.
But they still had to rely on penalties,so although they were looking more themselves come the final 30 minutes,i conclude the Portugese had the advantage with the extra 2 days and did look sharp but failed to take advantage.
Ronaldo not the worlds greatest player.

Spain didn't really get going until extra-time and just before extra-time. Spain should have scored at least two, they carved Portugal wide open several times, I've no idea how they failed to score tbh. Oh hold on yes I do, playing without proper forwards might have something to do with it. I hope Del Bosque plays with two up front in the final. He wont, but if he did Spain would win by at least 2 clear goals imo.

better to dominate midfiled IMO

Jun 27, 2012 -- 3:30AM, marychain1 wrote:

I'd let it ride. If Germany wins then hats off to them and you'll have to take your medicine. If they get turned over by Italy or in the final, either of which is totally possible, then you're laughing.

yes this is what i am going to do

£500 Bank

Spain	£231.45
Germany	£419.74
Italy	£21.84

Any reason why you haven't put any money on the Germans throughout the competition?  My table has ended up favouring Germany and wishing the Italians lose the semi.

£40 Italy@8

£500 Bank

I'm going to finish £500 red on Germany if they win it .Want to at least have a go at building bigger greens on the other two

Spain	£193.45
Germany	£459.74
Italy	£287.84

I'm green on Spain.  Wasn't sure whether to level up but decided to take out liability on Germany and Italy and hope he Spanish come though for a nice healthy green.

I did back them a couple times i've done over 100 bets i guess

I've never thought they were ever a decent price Loaded.

If they'd been held @1-1 for 20 minutes v Greece i would have had a bigger bet on them but it only lasted 4 minutes

Hopefully Italy score first and give me some options

I agree with tobermory, I think Germany have been very poor value for this tournament. I backed Spain at 3.2 and 3.5 and Italy at 14's. Spain are entitled to be short having proved themselves over and over again, but Germany the pretenders so short a price? No thanks. They have it all to prove.

So,with last night in mind my view on what may happen tonight.
The Germans with players rested in the Greek game and the extra 2 days will dominate and score first,the Italians will struggle to get a grip in the game.
The 2nd half will be much the same with Italy trying to press more but leaving themselves open,Germany will looking to stretch their lead and may well do so.
Desperate to hit back Italy may pull 1 back,making the last 10/15 mins nail biting but the Germans having enough know how to hold the Italians at bay.
Think that may not be far off what we may see tonight.

think i'll back Italy again and hope they hold on for a while

£10 @4.9

Pleasing turn of events Tobermory. 

GTFI

£50 Germany @8.6

I hope you're enjoying this tobermory. Saw the second go in and thought about your book.

ty

probably a bit too quick to back Germany , just seized on the chance  to go green on them as wasnt excpecting to get one

sorry i did that now as Spain green low

£500 Bank

Spain	£126.95
Italy	£267.89
Germany	£23.44

fs what happened to the Germans,i had originally thought you could get at that German defense.
But was swayed by last nights events thinking the extra few days would see Germans dominate early on.
Not over yet,Germans wont lie down,but did look very deflated at half time,not a good sign.

I'd have thought 3 full days rest between matches would be plenty myself

So 6 days or 4 days makes no difference

probably mess about with this market a bit more before this game is over

£27 Lay Italy @3.25

Spain	£152.60
Italy	£210.17
Germany	£49.09

Got out of gaol, wd.

ty Ken

£8 Germany@21

£4 Germany @48

job done - you were right to take on germany

spain still 1.6 outright i thought it will be 1.4 - 1.5 max. definitely a value.

RMB ©
11 Jun 12 16:02
Ruthless stuff Biscuits. I'd be worried about any red especially in this format. I think taking on Germany and backing Spain is a good move. Stick with Italy people, and we can rejoice together.

FORZA ITALIA

Well played tobermory, if you ever want to put your shoes up for grabs on ebay give us a shout first! Not a dig, your opinion better than mine on this occasion. I'm left with doing someting between bravado ...

spain -£237
italy +£851

... or green up regardless ...

spain +£172
italy +£172

... though not sure the trader's discipline is for me. Main struggle with this is that I think there is mileage in level stakes punting if you bet the same on whether the odds are 6/4 or 33/1. Can't understand £500 on a hot pot against £10 on an outsider reasoning. Cash in big-time when you bag a rag!

Well played tobermory, funnily enough i thought of this thread when Italy went 2 up.

And well played RMB, geniunely surprised (although history tells me i shouldn't be) with how well Italy have done.

I'd end up with nearly the same if i went level: £162 profit on either

Hard to get excited about but better than losing £500

Thinking of moving all profit on to Spain which would be +£250

Spain	£140.44
Italy	£197.97

Considering Germany were looking ominous and i was £500 on Italy at one point i can't complain

ty Biscuit

Hadn't really considered ...

spain +£275
italy -£0

... so food for thought especially as they survived the late Croatia header and a penalty shoot-out (name's on the cup). Italy survived a penalty shoot-out though too and apart from the second half against Croatia haven't looked too shabby. +£172 each of two looks a better balanced proposition right now especially as baling out of £66 @ 15.5/1 for a free bet elsewhere might take some getting over should spain go belly up.

£197.97 Spain@1.63

Spain	£258.89
Italy	£9.90

well played tobes

cheers Smithy actually ended £262.75 as made a miscalculation

Should probably have had £400 on Spain tonight as i made them 1.50 , would have been -200 on Italy though and although that was not too bad after getting all green during the 2nd semi was reluctant to have any further reds

can't complain as made a few wrong calls and was looking odds on for a sizeable loss most of the way

good fred tubes

Should probably have had £400 on Spain tonight as i made them 1.50

If I had rated a 5/4 chance at 1/2 I would have lumped on
but then I can't ever remember having a difference like that.
Tobermory, you should be happy you got ''out of gaol'' but
it seems you are seeing yourself as being a bit unlucky, which
seems a bit strange. GL.

Only doing the outright Ken, so was not considering the 5/4 for 90 mins, rather the 1.63 for Trophy Winner, which i did have about £200 on ,leaving me level on Italy

I would have made them about 2.15 for the match myself but nearly 1/2 to win the cup .

No i wouldn't say i was unlucky as i think it was just a poor decision as i was fussy about going red on Italy, which would only have been -200 , a figure that would have been modest compared to reds i carried for weeks ,inc -500 Italy after group stages.

Yes i  think i did not play this as well as i expected throughout so rather fortunate to win anything.

Sorry tobermory, I read your 1.50 Spain as being
for 90 mins play, rather than outright, and it
makes a lot more sense now. Still think you got
out of gaol though, rather than being unlucky.
WD and GL.

What makes you say he got out of jail?

He was green on Spain from day one, correctly opposed the Germans, and going into the semis was green on 3 of the 4 countries.

biscuit, I was of the impression things were going
against him slightly, and he batted his way out of
it. WD I said and he didn't disagree with me. If you
want to cherry pick a point when he was on top of things
that is up to you, but I'm not about to go through
a multitude of bets to disagree with you. Every time
he had a bet, followed by the result, things changed,
sometimes good, sometimes not so good. If you think
I am wrong, I'll accept your opinion as it's too
complex (for me) to examine in detail. GL.

Didn't it help when Italy beat Germany ?

Didn't it help when Italy beat Germany ?

Portugal went strong favs to go past Spain IR and then Tobes would have been in a bad situation. As it is, it turned out well, and it's a great thread, and a deserved win. WP all. I made Spain 2.00 in 90 mins so have nothing to say but I'm an idiot for not backing them at 2.3 a few nights ago, but that sums up my Euros, alot of money lost, a lack of conviction at the end, hey ho. Hope others faired better.

Great thread. Well done tobes

Well done on this

"u want some 08 Jun 12 18:07 
Always look forward to your posts tobermory. I will guarantee Spain don't win it though. Lay lay lay"

Excellent end result.

Always comes across as a nice bloke that Tobermory.