Norwich at 4s to beat Liverpool, good bet or not? (General Discussion)

i can not believe  it Wigan Athletic vs Newcastle is not on tv

no bet game at the prices currently

Norwich aren't looking in the best of form either at the moment. I will be laying Liverpool.

what about the draw ?

well let me see, they are 3 points apart, norwich have amassed 24 points at home compared to liverpool 21 away, so really nothing in it, but when you look a bit closer liverpool are joint bottom of the prem in a 2012 league along with wolves and have lost 6 of last 7 so realistic odds based on stats are norwich 2.5 liverpool 2.9

but look, no, Im miles out ! that crafty womble tombermory must be right, Im wrong the odds ARE about right, and Ive been getting things completely wrong, like when I thought Newcastle should have been faves at home to liverpool, and Liverpool were 2.2, mind you newcastle won 3-0 and I won loads of cash, but I was clearly wrong, and then laying liverpool at home to villa, how could I be such an idiot, I know I won £500 but thats not the point, then last week I backed wba at 9.4 at liverpool when I thought they should have been about 4, "I wish you were my oddsmaker" I was told on here, well I learnt my lesson then, I know west brom won, but whats a grand when you've been put in your place...

no really Im giving up backing teams according to statistics and form and league positions and all that lark, Im getting in with the shrewdies on here, cos that Andy Carroll for instance, he does look like a league 1 centre forward, but hes gonna be brilliant, the shrewdies on here have told me, and 3 good players is all you need to be a good prem side, (cos thats all liverpool have) - and Im backing them at 2.1 tomorrow, I'll lose all me cash but at least I'll know Ive done the RIGHT thing, and in any case I just know Kenny will have a brilliant new excuse....happy days !

been up in london - saw the cockney rejects last nite - thats real music for all you young uns

I backed bolton at 4.3 but have already traded at 3.85, Newcastle at 2.64 hope to lay at 2.5, and west ham 1.55 plus 3-0 at 14/1 - hope this will be smashed into tomorrow

cant see Utd being longer than 3.6 on monday and maybe as low as 3.2 so a good no risk trade as long as rooney is fit

Prices are about right on this one.
However I would put this up for consideration.,
The two Paddy Power shops in Liverpool hav emoney back on first scorer market if Norwich win.
Think it through.
Cover likely Liverpool scorers, say, Gerard,Suarez, Maxi/Bellamy, Even save on Carroll.
My reckoning is that if Norwich score first, they will win, hence money back.
Obviously wait for teams and maybe get list down to 3 potential Liverpool scorers, easy if Dalglish starts with Downing ,Henderson, Spearing who can be ruled out.
Similar bet on Blackpool away at Betfred when Maxi paid double delight at 11s.

I will do something along these lines post team news and watch in Pub.

No guarantee but given the rather large squiggle next to Liverpool's form I prefer novel bets and one would have done well on money back everytime Liverpool lost this year.

Good luck

Liverpool a big lay for me at 2.04, market seems to always overestimate them

now mr 50Bridge I really dont want to be rude, but you say "Prices are about right on this one", well in what way are they about right ?

Lets go through this again, you have 2 teams here that on first analysis, points etc are hard to separate, but when you look closer at current form etc etc see above = a pretty clear bias to norwich, say norwich 2.5 liverpool 2.9 ish, Im not talking about who I fancy, read it in the tea leaves, liverpool are gonna give someone a hiding soon, none of that bollox, Im talking about a factual analysis of the 2 sides based on results, an analytical approach that will, if interpreted correctly enable you to make a profit

and if you're in any doubt I say this only after Ive done my bets or trades, and not wholly for philanthropic purposes as Im always looking for seriously good advice, but do really try and understand that liverpool = the biggest wrongly skewed prices in football betting and that = the biggest opportunity to make profits. Of course liverpool may win tomorrow, that doesn't matter, all that matters that is if you believe in a factually based mathematical approach supported by results week in week out for nearly a year, norwich are not 4.1 to win tomorrow, they are 2.5 - with that in mind what will you do with your cash ?

Market that stands out is Sending Off - home crowd have influenced decisions many a time with a decent return of Reds in recent seasons, plus our lack of pace at the back is often exploited at this level

un-b-lievable, 1.93 now, norwich 4.5, but no, no, no, I must stop relying on facts, Craig is right here, Liverpool have been "unlucky" all season, just like Ive been "lucky" all season, and yes by analysing statitistics has meant I have been able to give up my job, but no im gonna back liverpool every week now whatever price, cos I now know its not that, besides suarez, their forwards are crap, and that besides Gerrard and Reina, they are man for man worse than wigan (as results in 2012 prove), no its just that they are "unlucky"  -  I have seen the light

green army in thinly veiled "look at me, I'm brilliant"/"unoriginal have a go at liverpool" double-sided post.

on a serious note, tho this is pure speculation, earlier this week I traded some norwich at 3.9 having backed at 4.2, the 4.5 now may, in accordance with previous patterns, represent some silly far eastern cash - its peak punting hours there - this however is a 5.30 ko here, way past bedtime there, so come 5.30 some semblance of sanity may return to the market, Im guessing a 3.8ish SP in norwich with liverpool 2.4ish, but we will see

"Market that stands out is Sending Off"

Exactly what I thought. Halsey has a record of giving pens at Carrow Rd especially against us.

green army


The price dropped pretty dramatically here this morning in the space of about half an hour, which almost certainly suggests asian money.

I can't believe anyone based here would be backing Liverpool having looked at their recent form and the FA Cup final looming; Norwich may well have a couple of injuries but still every fibre in my body screams "lay" though the chances of Liverpool's odds drifting too far are probably slim.

apologies ours4keeps if I got a bit carried away, your post above is spot on, of course the odds are plain silly, norwich SHOULD be 2.5ish, but as you say they are likely to end up somewhere between 3.8 and 4.3, I'm always learning new aspects to this and the golden rule for this season has been to lay liverpool as much as you can afford, but dont under any circumstrances trade them, on the other side of the coin trade the nuts off any remaining games where only one team "must" win,

Arsenal 3rd place away from home to a team 23 points behind them are 1.94

Liverpool 8th place against a team only 3 points behind them are 1.83

How does that make any sense?

I love these maniacs who keep backing Liverpool down to these kind of odds

ah good, thought it was just me backing norwich, up to 4.6 when i last checked, absolutely crazy, may also lay the draw at 4.2 to cover myself if the unexpected was to happen (liverpool playing well).personally even though the sending off market is good at 7.2 atm, at this stage of the season i doubt anyone will do anything stupid.