Lets trade some football shall we

Subsequent team news can feck you badly when looking to trade like this. I reckon Man U price will actually shorten, think Reading and Charlton will also shorten but not Middlesboro.

pompeys a funny one - some will back them on sentimental grounds of the dunkirk spirit, pompey roar etc but I think by ko tomorrow most will gravitate towards boro's form, that they have won over half their away games and that pompey have won only 1 of last 8 games - add in the fact that many pompey players are now actively considering their next club, and, as a plymouth fan I can tell you it will be no surprise tomorrow if certain pompey players in demand are not on the teamsheet and I can see a clear move for boro - tho maybe not til 2.30 tomorrow

Depends on team news but Pompey don't lose often at home, Boro only won 1 of last 4 aways. Reckon lot of people will be wary of the draw, which will stop the price coming in much.

while pompey's home record is ok they have lost 2 of the last 3, the other being last weeks 0-0 to leeds - agreed boro are not reliable but the win at milwall last time was comfortable, Hamill is debuting and as you say team news - ie pompeys - is the key

hope people are counting their pennies coming in, all 3 bets moving nicely, esp boro ! - and dont forget correct scores, they tend to lag and give you a chance to join in if you miss the original move, tho you do need a strong market, so maybe not charlton

i jumped on the charlton bandwagon at 2.66 so hoping to lay off 2.35 at kickoff was impressed with your write up on game in this thread green army so piled on

cheers smithy, Ive laid £500 at 2.48 which is £100 green on charlton and will leave the rest for tomorrow

Sorry to jump on board Guys but B/Muinch must be taken on at 1.85 for me G/Luck

Thanks for all the tips guys. Green , Charlton one is coming in nicely , That is probably one of the best tips that have seen on here. Got middlesborough at 2.56 and looking at the money do you think it is one to bail out from or keep faith?

still not sure scara - but as mentioned above its a no loser, because I cant see circumstances where boro will top 2.6ish and if 1 or more of pompeys better players aren't on the team sheet - for a variety of reasons - the price could tumble

Thanks green will keep an eye on it. The Charlton trade will cover a small loss on it so not too bothered as long as the odds don't sky rocket up .
Once again I really appreciate you sharing advice . Pre match odd trading is not an area i've really tried but this thread has given me the inspiration to get stuck into it.
Sad that all the people on here still think backing 1.01 will make them rich quick when a thread like this could open their eyes.

Great thread.  Interesting stuff for a mug like me who'll pile into Charlton at half past 2.

Really interesting thread green ... very insightful but the bit i still cant get clear is why you picked reading , midbrgh and charlton games in the first place ?  Would these have been " good " selections whatever price they were at 3 days ago. relying on joe public to behave the same whatever, or was there something ( some value) in the actual odds that  attracted you to them ?

not being cynical, but people reading this who now jump on those three teams, would act to force the prices down anyway..job done

this weeks pre off football trades so far.

tuesday- rochdale vs notts county layed rochdale @2.48 backed @2.78= £100

wednesday- england vs holland layed england @2.92 backed at 3.2= £93

saturday- bournemouth vs charlton backed charlton @2.66 currently trading at 2.4

sunday- tottenham vs man u layed man u @2.5 currently trading at 2.6 looking for 2.7 minimum.

sunday- tottenham vs man u backed under 2.5 @2.26 looking for 2 around kickoff.

i'd advise everyone on here who wants a pre off tip for tommorow to back under 2.5 in the tottenham game.
a common theme when the big teams play each other is for under's to start off big only to get backed in around kickoff. an example of this is a bet i had last week at the emirates.

arsenal vs tottenham backed under 2.5 at 2.32 layed at 2.1 on kickoff leaving me like this: under=£110
over =£110. should of left more on over but oh well. i owed the thread one after green army pulled off a stormer with charlton. gud luck ppl

well sweetchild, know what you're saying but you're not seriously suggesting Im ramping on the bf forum to help my trading on these 3 games - prices here are more than 90% dictated by the recycling of bookmakers money and to think anyone on here can result in a shift of odds of even .1% is utter nonsense

maverick, I price up the games early in the week from the stats,form etc and where the high street prices are significantly out of sync I read up, trawl club websites and talk to other people who do this and then get £500 - £2k on depending on confidence / potential profit margins

I dont come on here too often tho I do watch the threads and flagging it up this week was mostly to see how many, if any did similar

btw reading now 2.54 to 2.34 - charlton 2.65 to 2.38 as expected but boro have gone the other way as sometimes happens, this is no golden egg, but anyone on boro, hang on til 2.30 as may well go back the other way, there is uncertainty at pompey and the big puters dont like this

lay liverpool now.. when rvp is decalred fit major drift on pool as no gerrard.

sounds good mate as long as rvp is definetly fit how sure are you that he is starting?

wel he tweeted.. next stop liverpool, looking forward to it...

rvp starts.

liverpool aren't drifting mate. they always seem to get wel backed at home. i'd have them at 2.3 for this minimum but the market says otherwise

Went out for an hour and come back to see Boro odds have skyrocketed to 2.9+ . Typical . Hopefully Chalton fall a bit more and I can break even for this afternoon.

dont panic scara, on the £1k per bet trade you should be around £200 up now with around a potential £60 loss on boro at 2.9 but hang on - whoever has had a punt on pompey at 3.0ish must be bonkers, ok they will have a sellout 18k crowd going crazy and of course they may win, however, they have lost liam lawrence to cardiff this week, and 2 or 3 of the other better players are rumoured to be on their way this week, I still think peple will have a lok and boro will be back to par - we'll see

will do. Charlton one looks pretty safe and hopefully boro will sneak down a bit more . Not panicking as I have learnt a lot from this and like you say should still profit yet .

good thread and green army please dont my take my flippant comments seriously

boro getting pushed out towards 3 now

crazy but can happen, lord knows why, but as long as you keep on the plus side - still +£130 up then learn and move on

i would reccomend putting a stop loss in place when starting the trade

v good point

and btw charlton 2.24 !!!

i would be out long before kick off, the last thing you need is an outage or connection problems with no time to get on the phone to bf

backed Boro at 2.56 layed at 3.00. That's a record loss I hope I don't ever repeat .
Very good point about the stop loss. Learned that the hard way. But that is probably the best way to learn. Luckily Charlton have bailed me out . If they win I will be in small profit , if they lose , i will be in small loss . Either way its been a very good experience for me . Gl All .

boro scored if its any help

Yes layed off to gaurantee small profit whatever happens. Happy that those who layed Boro out to 3 are being proved wrong .

well intersting afternoon - not least because fwiw all 3 won - and did anyone notice that charlton were odds on after 10 mins - I bet whoever was responsible for that was holding his breath

bournmouth =£50
the draw =£50
charlton=£180

yann kermogant and green army i owe you both one

well i hope you pre off traders out there got on under 2.5 yesterday at 2.24 like me i said we'd get 2 approaching kickoff

everytime the big 6 play each other unders gets smashed in at kick off why is this?

you would usually expect it to be tight with even teams on display but that certainly hasnt been the case this year!!

Spot on with the unders prediction.

smithy that was useful, now if spurs are finding it hard to score get on 0-0 v stevanage at 30/1 - its overpriced

and look down to the barca thread leverkusen 24/1 for wednesday going down but still loads of value

and how do you do this pm stuff - I cant find it on the new format

cheers mate. al have a look at both those games. to pm someone i just go on my messages whilst i'm on the forum

From the comments at the beginning of the thread of laying and backing United, got them laid at 2.5 but Man U have gone no where near 2.8 to be backed!

hold out on game prices are wrong then trade out at 2.5

Well, I for one would be interested in any new strats. have tried the various sites and "experts" but to no avail.
Using a decent system at the moment but things have gone against me a bit this weekend. have'nt lost much but have'nt won either.
We all know you cannot buy money on Betfair but I could use any decent system that some one would care to share,
Cheers summerteeth, will be following with interest.

Cheers summerteeth, will be following with interest.

he hasnt posted since creating this thread lol

Good tip smithy re under 2.5. Didn't get on this one but have been following it with interest and it has come in style. I will keep an eye on unders in future .I Paper tested a couple of games this weekend and the odds have come in as I predicted so I am happy with that. One was the Inter v Catania game . They are getting tipped everywhere to end their awful run and they were at 1.81 last night .Now at 1.71 as everyone seems to be piling on them. Thanks for the inspiration guys .

nice one mate will try and keep up the good work

Any trades for this weekends games ?

i will be searching through the english leagues this afternoon for the perfect trade hopefully one as good as charlton last weekend will come up 2.66 into 2.24 at kick off.

Bit of help required. How do you set up a stop loss without getting matched straight away? Got matched ( backed ) on a game for the odds I wanted. Thought i'd put a lay in at higher odds as a safety net in case it drifts out quickly. However I just got layed straight away at the current lower odds which I didn't request . Ta

i'm not sure how to set a stop loss either but i havn't tried. rarely does the trade drift out to far if your trading the right matches

Easier said than done picking the right matches. I'm sure you've had trades go against you for no logical reason .Got my fingers burnt with the Middlesborough and Southend games this week . Both odds drifted out very fast and if i'd had a stop loss in place my loss would have been minimal as opposed to much more than i was comfortable with . I can't sit staring at a screen till 3 o clock so need to set up a stop loss in case trade goes opposite way of what I think. anyone?

yeh true on the southend game took me 30 mins in play to get out of that one good job game was terrible.

@scara_manga you can only set up a 'back' at higher odds or 'lay' at lower odds, not the other way around like what you did or else betfair just assumes you want to take the current "better" odds. only way to do what you are looking for, I believe, is to get some kind of program that links with betfair although i don't know the names of any.

ok thanks ring-a-ding .

Wheres todays value trades then
?

its to late for mine mate. i layed tottenham on thursday night at 2.6 they are now 2.7 plus and backed under 2.5 last night at 1.9 now its 1.8. so no point jumping on. fleetwood was a good call last night thanks to abu 1.98 into 1.9 at kickoff and won 2-0.

must say though much better for trades last week rather than this week. hardly found anything

agreed last week was v good as was last nite with fleetwood

evertons a funny one, went from 3 to 2.9 now back out to 3 - are spurs wobbling, & short on central defenders today, I would have everton faves here and the market tends to support spurs more at home than away, so I would take 3 everton now

I am always v nervous about laying utd at home but west broms last 3 performances (5-1 away at wolves, 4-0 v sunderland and 1 -0 v chelsea) have been v classy - as good as bilbao ? - so 12/1 looks high for wba

Good thread this chaps. Keep it up!

hey paul, great player, my childhood hero at home park, not so good as a manager

no dodgy in play trades this weekend.

trade 1: backed fleetwood at 1.98 layed at 1.9 fleetwood +£80 the draw +£0 kidderminster+0
trade 2: layed tottenham at 2.6 backed at 2.76 everton +£60 the draw+£60 tottenham+£60
trade 3: backed under 2.5 at 1.9 layed at 1.78 under 2.5=+£70 over 2.5 =+£50

off to celebrate the 2-0 win over wolves now GTFI

everton did us proud and I think could do so again leading up to tuesday's derby at 5.4 because:

liverpool are abject, lost 3 on the trot, only won 1 prem game this year and only 4 of 13 at home this season
only 2 points separate the teams
everton have recently beaten man city, chelsea & spurs (ok at home) and now have a goalscorer
liverpool are available at 1.8 which should equal everton at 5.1

Good day yesterday for me . Got Sheff Wednesday at 1.93 and traded at 1.83 which isn't bad for my first week of pre match trading . Once I get a bit more confidence in my own ability i'll post my thoughts on games pre-match. Out of 8 other games I paper tested this week all odds came in except one and that only went out a couple of ticks . Of the other 7 games they all came in between 4 to 10 ticks , not massive moves but its still moving the right way.

noticed that manutd are 1.36 after trading as low as 1.22

Im afraid I may have hoovered up all the value here ~(Ive had £500 at evens) but if you can get any get enough on at anything north of 1.95 then I reckon Rerading should be around 1.8 at Donnie on wednesday - why - cos Reading have won 8, yes 8 on the trot and donnie have only won 1 of last 9 - think Arsenal at Wigan, with Arsenal on the back of 8 consecutive wins and think 1.8 or less

great stuff green army i am having 1k at anything around 1.95 they wil be 1.8 at kickoff or possibly 1.75. this is the reason i was patient at weekend. thank you again for spotting it

I have taken a large chunk of 2.64- 2.68 on wba away to wigan next week

The thinking is wigan have won only once at home this season and only 1 of last 10, they were ok today but norwich were out of sorts and wigan are clearly poor, esp at home

for wba losing 2-0 at united today with 10 men means v little - the albion won the previous 3, sunderland, chelsea and putting 5 past wolves at molineaux, arguably a similar task to next week

the bare stats say albion near evens - I reckon 2.3, in any case at 2.6 now I think a reasonable profit v low risk trade

hi guys back to a weekend of trading some match odds. i waited on wigan game to strike and last night got matched at 2.84 lay on wigan. out to 3 already when i woke this morning. won £152 midweek from trading man utd on thursday as from sum reason up to 45 min before kickoff they were favourites.

check out my thread in general bettting theres guna be lots of pre off trades in next 5 days so get involved people.

I have been watching the Portsmouth v Bristol City game with interest.

Last night they were trading at 2.38 and this morning they are trading at 2.22
I guess its confirming what has already been mentioned about Portsmouth on here. I will be interested to see what they are trading at come 3pm .

have you not put money on any trades scara_manga?

Yes , but im not fully matched on the price I want so i'm keeping quiet for now . I think it will only come in 4 or 5 ticks so its a pretty safe trade i think .

Another one that interests me is MK Dons at Chesterfield .
Best you can get at bookies is evens but currently trading here at 2.12 . That's too high and I would expect it to come in back towards 2.02 2.04 . However nothing always goes to plan with trading .

gud luck mate seems like your getting the idea. i check odds comparison sites for my trades too definetly helps. there will be some under 2.5 trades next week as big teams in prem are playing each other. will be similar to the spurs vs utd game the other week 2.24 into 2 at kickoff can't wait

yes things fairly quiet, I had a good week with bilbao going my way

an interesting spot smithy with the unders going that way towards ko, Ive developed it a bit further with the 0-0 CS - ie if the match odds dont change too much the 0-0 bombs in the hour before ko - watch spurs today & utd tomorrow

today wba are still hugely overpriced at 2.6 - ie forget utd last week and think the 3 previous wins esp 5-1 at wolves, wigan have only 1 home win all season - whether the market will go this way not sure

wigan have not moved further out and i have a football match to play at 2 0 clock so trading out at 3 to leave me like this

wigan= +£0  the draw =+£80  west brom=+80  wigan's shambles of a home record leaves me with no option but to oppose them knowing my luck they will probably win today.

always throw profit away in the 3pm kickoffs on saturdays due to football commitments but i love playing too.

interesting spot with the correct scores  mate al be latching on to that. gd luck traders

why did we not keep this going was going well?

right suppose al get it up and running again £1500 at 2 on over 2.5 on germany vs greece for a pre off trade. germany are 1/3 shots so overs should be shorter and would be suprised if price didn't shorten before kickoff. if more money comes for germany then price will come in.

did any1 get on? layed overs at 1.91 with £500 this morning after laying unders at 2 last night. a low risk trade. price has gone back a bit now though need germany to get backed in more

layed unders again at 2.04 still to short in greece vs germany way out line with bookies prices.

i said it was to short

time to pile into italy's current odds now. 3.05.3.1 is big should be shorter come kickoff. when have england ever reached a semi **** me its not 1990

Hard to believe that England are being backed as favorites here, they've a poor record against the big teams in tournaments, let alone in the knockout stages. Last time being Argentina in 02' where they beat what you'd consider to be a favorite. Can't think off the top of my head, that in a game where they were considered underdogs they've prevailed in 90mins?

Think blind patriotism is driving the England price down, with them opening pretty even a pair at 3s. I do believe they'd got a great chance, but Italy have to be considered favorites.

What would your thinking be on the Spain France game tomorrow? I've got a couple of hundred waiting at 1.82 atm; won't be able to watch the match, so looking to tie up a few quid before gets underway. Pinnacle have Spain at 1.78 as I write this, but wom is favoring the lay side.

hi tom i'm not willing to pile in on spain at 1.82 as they were 1.9 yesterday that would of been a better time to get on. no trade for me but if you reckon spain  will come in could be worth a shout.

look at the odds for spain vs portugal. portugal trading at 4.7 whilst 4/1 with bookies. spain at evens and bigger i have 2k on spain already they will be 1.9 or lower at kickoff this is insane price.

crazy stuff 2.04 now being taken on spain pre off trade heaven

excellant arbing chance with stan james price of the draw and portugal bigger on there than here

stan james have cut the 13/5 offered on the draw and the 4/1 they were offering on portugal unsuprisingly

italy into 2.94 after being matched at 3.1 i got 3.05 but couldn't get matched at 3.1

full lot out at 2.94. quite a lot of bookies have england as faves so perhaps now is the best time to lock in profit. would like england to win so greening up italy. england =+£0 the draw=+£0  italy=+£72

lets hope we can do somrthing we never do and win a quarter final

should a waited a bit longer italy went into 2.86. not to worry spain will come steaming in

small world i already have the OP on twitter without realising

time to load up on spain  they can't be odds against at kickoff lets drive it in

Did the odds on Spain come in in the end? I saw they came in to about 1.96 and then last time I checked (about 5hrs before ko) they were back up to @ 2.

started around 1.99

Cheers!

Ger vs Italy tonight

Best Trades on this?

I was thinking that the over 2.5 is a wee bit high at 2.46/2.48 but after all the 0-0's recently I don't know if people will be too keen to back it!!

god can the new football season please hurry up my betfair account is becoming dormant. only three trades so far in july and one was on david haye. liverpool are playing a few games in next week or so hopefully will be worth a back to lay

brazil 1.25 vs egypt . 1.2 at kickoff thursday

"god can the new football season please hurry up my betfair account is becoming dormant"

Move into pretrading the horses, you can do what you do for a footy match (at your usual stakes) in about 5 minutes rather than 5 days: lay-to-back on smelly favourites.