Football
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Ok, i know there are guys out there who can trade the footy properly.
Why this forum is still living in 2006 i have no idea, seem far to many people Laying the sodding draw still, come on guys you can do better than that.
Crap day today so il open this thread up and have some proper football trading talk.
Im not talking about backing unders and then greening after 15 mins, THATS GAMBLING!!!
Melatone is gambling so do not mention that either please.
I have my own ideas and strats i am happy to share over the next few days and weeks.
Im sure the usual smart alecs will come on here flaming but theres an opportunity here to actually learn
Why this forum is still living in 2006 i have no idea, seem far to many people Laying the sodding draw still, come on guys you can do better than that.
Crap day today so il open this thread up and have some proper football trading talk.
Im not talking about backing unders and then greening after 15 mins, THATS GAMBLING!!!
Melatone is gambling so do not mention that either please.
I have my own ideas and strats i am happy to share over the next few days and weeks.
Im sure the usual smart alecs will come on here flaming but theres an opportunity here to actually learn
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Oooh, please don't discourage the draw laying. I make a lot from folk taking my value draw backing.
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im listening
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just think to see if a team will score. thts made me a few bob now
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do yo mean pre off football trading that's what i do. last night was good.
laid england @2.92 on monday night backed at 3.2 10 min before kickoff leaving me like this. holland £93 the draw £93 england £93 the one for this weekend is spurs vs man utd lay man u now @2.6 and trade out at around 2.8 near kickoff |
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god dint realise utd are now 2.5 excellent lay material. only city have won at the lane all season. and only beaten once at home the season before. teams just don't win here in prem. i could understand if barcelona or real madrid were playing here then 2.52 might look better but it's man utd. they needed a 90th min winner to scrape past norwich incredible stuff.get on now guys we'll get 2.8 at kickoff
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Im not talking about backing unders and then greening after 15 mins, THATS GAMBLING!!!
trading is a form of gambling |
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for beginners the key to trading at its most effective is to find markets where you can be 90%+ sure you are going with the market and where there may be more than a small % profit - eg this weekend well laying man utd not bad but look at the stats and you can find Reading at 2.5 (at Millwall - will be 2.3ish) Middlesboro 2.54 (at Pompey will be 2.35ish) and Charlton 2.64 (at Bournemouth again will bbe 2.35ish) - with say £1k on each you should trade out for £100 + on each before ko with v little exposure
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re:green army,have studied price movements for years now(with little success) but have mostly looked at the top division in each country.Are your threee predictions based on stats or just years of experience looking at away matches for good teams in the lower divisions?
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everything u do in betfair is gambling as smple as that
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i like it green army those three sound good to me. i've been putting 1k down on each lay and aim for around £100 on the three match outcomes
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bit of both, stats have to be starting point - eg Charlton have won 12/15 away games and bournemouth have lost 8/16 home games - the bare facts therefore indicate charlton should in fact be odds on - add into the equation the turmoil at bournemouth ( the new russian owners wife was reported to have given the half time team talk in pidgin english in the home defeat to md dons last week, and the the other crazy co owner swore on 5 live) plus charltons momentum (7 wins and no defeats in last 10) and you have a clear away win that even the armchair punters will latch on to by 3pm saturday - by which time you will have traded out - so yes it is gambling & now and again, but rarely the odds go the wrong way - but with the right research you can avoid most of the risk
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excellent green army i am now placing 1k on charlton to join the man utd bet nice 1
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henok i agree with him. i think charlton will be 2.3 at kick off. amateur punters will drive the price down backing charlton for their unbeaten run to continue 10 points clear at top of league and bournemouth have no form makes sense really
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henok of course you cant know this, but you can develop a reasonably informed picture of the direction the market will turn based on the information punters will rely on in the lead up to ko when the weight of money will drive the price
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green army that makes more sense
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Great post green. Although I do wonder who is laying Charlton at 2.64 and why don't they wait till nearer kick off?
I have learned on some markets you make money not from what you think will happen , but from what other punters think will happen. If you are trading correct scores on a game pre-off there is little point trying to work out what you think the score will be as if no-one else is thinking the same it will drift ( and .5 drifts hurt). |
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almost hit the nail completely on the head scara manga but you don't go far enough - in fact it is of absolutely zero percent importance what you think will happen in a football match and if you let your own opinions interfere in the slightest way in your trading, then well trading is not the game for you
I learnt v early on that constructing an argument into how a game may go no matter how well informed, can in many cases go against the market. Having said that, in my experience the market will in most instances and eventually, gravitate towards the correct outcome, sometimes relying on a huge leap of faith and defying the stats eg the market went with wba v sunderland last week when the stats clearly said otherwise - now when this happens just trade out early and try and figure out why this happened however again in most instances the market will in fact go with the stats, so unless there is a reason unknown at this stage to you or me why bournemouth or charlton will not play to form and / or assuming one single punter does not distort the market with a v big punt going against the grain (a russian at the seaside maybe) then the market should go your way tomorrow its playing the percentages but being armed with as much information as possible and thinking the same way as those putting on the money - but above all remember when trading your opinion counts for nothing |
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Subsequent team news can feck you badly when looking to trade like this. I reckon Man U price will actually shorten, think Reading and Charlton will also shorten but not Middlesboro.
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pompeys a funny one - some will back them on sentimental grounds of the dunkirk spirit, pompey roar etc but I think by ko tomorrow most will gravitate towards boro's form, that they have won over half their away games and that pompey have won only 1 of last 8 games - add in the fact that many pompey players are now actively considering their next club, and, as a plymouth fan I can tell you it will be no surprise tomorrow if certain pompey players in demand are not on the teamsheet and I can see a clear move for boro - tho maybe not til 2.30 tomorrow
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Depends on team news but Pompey don't lose often at home, Boro only won 1 of last 4 aways. Reckon lot of people will be wary of the draw, which will stop the price coming in much.
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while pompey's home record is ok they have lost 2 of the last 3, the other being last weeks 0-0 to leeds - agreed boro are not reliable but the win at milwall last time was comfortable, Hamill is debuting and as you say team news - ie pompeys - is the key
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hope people are counting their pennies coming in, all 3 bets moving nicely, esp boro ! - and dont forget correct scores, they tend to lag and give you a chance to join in if you miss the original move, tho you do need a strong market, so maybe not charlton
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i jumped on the charlton bandwagon at 2.66 so hoping to lay off 2.35 at kickoff was impressed with your write up on game in this thread green army so piled on
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cheers smithy, Ive laid £500 at 2.48 which is £100 green on charlton and will leave the rest for tomorrow
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Sorry to jump on board Guys but B/Muinch must be taken on at 1.85 for me G/Luck
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Thanks for all the tips guys. Green , Charlton one is coming in nicely , That is probably one of the best tips that have seen on here. Got middlesborough at 2.56 and looking at the money do you think it is one to bail out from or keep faith?
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still not sure scara - but as mentioned above its a no loser, because I cant see circumstances where boro will top 2.6ish and if 1 or more of pompeys better players aren't on the team sheet - for a variety of reasons - the price could tumble
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Thanks green will keep an eye on it. The Charlton trade will cover a small loss on it so not too bothered as long as the odds don't sky rocket up .
Once again I really appreciate you sharing advice . Pre match odd trading is not an area i've really tried but this thread has given me the inspiration to get stuck into it. Sad that all the people on here still think backing 1.01 will make them rich quick when a thread like this could open their eyes. |
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Great thread. Interesting stuff for a mug like me who'll pile into Charlton at half past 2.
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Really interesting thread green ... very insightful but the bit i still cant get clear is why you picked reading , midbrgh and charlton games in the first place ? Would these have been " good " selections whatever price they were at 3 days ago. relying on joe public to behave the same whatever, or was there something ( some value) in the actual odds that attracted you to them ?
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not being cynical, but people reading this who now jump on those three teams, would act to force the prices down anyway..job done
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this weeks pre off football trades so far.
tuesday- rochdale vs notts county layed rochdale @2.48 backed @2.78= £100 wednesday- england vs holland layed england @2.92 backed at 3.2= £93 saturday- bournemouth vs charlton backed charlton @2.66 currently trading at 2.4 sunday- tottenham vs man u layed man u @2.5 currently trading at 2.6 looking for 2.7 minimum. sunday- tottenham vs man u backed under 2.5 @2.26 looking for 2 around kickoff. i'd advise everyone on here who wants a pre off tip for tommorow to back under 2.5 in the tottenham game. a common theme when the big teams play each other is for under's to start off big only to get backed in around kickoff. an example of this is a bet i had last week at the emirates. arsenal vs tottenham backed under 2.5 at 2.32 layed at 2.1 on kickoff leaving me like this: under=£110 over =£110. should of left more on over but oh well. i owed the thread one after green army pulled off a stormer with charlton. gud luck ppl |
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well sweetchild, know what you're saying but you're not seriously suggesting Im ramping on the bf forum to help my trading on these 3 games - prices here are more than 90% dictated by the recycling of bookmakers money and to think anyone on here can result in a shift of odds of even .1% is utter nonsense
maverick, I price up the games early in the week from the stats,form etc and where the high street prices are significantly out of sync I read up, trawl club websites and talk to other people who do this and then get £500 - £2k on depending on confidence / potential profit margins I dont come on here too often tho I do watch the threads and flagging it up this week was mostly to see how many, if any did similar btw reading now 2.54 to 2.34 - charlton 2.65 to 2.38 as expected but boro have gone the other way as sometimes happens, this is no golden egg, but anyone on boro, hang on til 2.30 as may well go back the other way, there is uncertainty at pompey and the big puters dont like this |
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lay liverpool now.. when rvp is decalred fit major drift on pool as no gerrard.
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sounds good mate as long as rvp is definetly fit how sure are you that he is starting?
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wel he tweeted.. next stop liverpool, looking forward to it...
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rvp starts.
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liverpool aren't drifting mate. they always seem to get wel backed at home. i'd have them at 2.3 for this minimum but the market says otherwise
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