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Why do most punters lose ?
Why do most punters lose ?
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Replies: 286
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I've said many times gambling should be fun, and should never get you down for long when you lose. Betfair and Internet gambling probably has caused more people to gamble more often than they used to. Me included but if I ever looked at my p&l and couldn't justify the losses I'd either lower the stakes o give up. But if it ever got me own I'd give up.
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yes i do but my fallers when leading and shortheads beaten far outnumbers my winners when others fall and how my winners by shortheads
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then start laying off i-r, if your short heads get beat they'll prob trade 1.1 or even 1.01.
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one punter who loose believes that he is the most clever punter...and dont need advise ..and he thinks that all the others are mugs .....
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Boyce, if it's getting you down you should really give up or at least gamble with minimum stakes. Luck always evens out over the long run, but many punters do actually believe that they're unlucky, which reveals that they have a negative attitude and are unlikely to succeed. There is no logic in believing in luck. Luck shouldn't even come into your mindset, it plays a part on individual results but not over the long haul, and the long haul is what matters.
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Why do most punters lose ?
Gambling like kenilworth imo  |
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The myth of value is the downfall of many.
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Why do most punters lose ?
Gambling like kenilworth imo You cant lose if you never have a bet !! |
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You lose because you dont do your homework, Take yesterday for instance we all knew that Hamburg had not lost their 7 last away games and when Mgb scored and Hamburg went to 22.00, I backed it as Im sure others did and when they equalised sold cashed out at 5.6.
Now thats a profit and nearly everyone in the thread knew Hamburg had a chance, so a bit of homework can make you money. |
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Value is only a myth to those who can't see it or calculate it. Odds represent the probability of an event occurring. If your backing a 1.4 shot when its only a 1.2 shot, that is value and you will definitely make money over time doing that every day. I personally know a PC payer and he will only bet by value, that of course is why he is a PC payer and has a bank larger than mine.
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flatliner Joined: 08 Aug 05
Replies: 10398 25 Feb 12 03:08 Why do most punters lose ? Gambling like kenilworth imo flatliner, one of the few forum funnymen  |
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I've come to the conclusion that the main reasons are...
When they back winners, it's down to good judgement. When they back losers, it's down to carelessness,bad luck, misplaced confidence... Too many bets for no reason other reason than to have a bet. Greed (Trebles, accumulators etc) Greening up too often. Betting in the wrong markets (correct score, ist goal scorer etc) |
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Pretty much sums it up
will add...bets lose, thats a fact. Its how a punter reacts to losing that bet. If they see it as it is, the bet lost, bets do and I accept it. Rather than my bank is lower than what I started with today so I must finish the day in profit/up so I will bet on anything that will give me a chance of re-cooping that money then that is likely to be the profile that will determine a losing punter. |
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its all comes down to luck,,,as ive said before,,im on such a unbelievable run of bad luck ,day after day ,,to continuly so close ,,so far today ive had 1 race 1 2nd in s africa,,perth v brisbane over 3.5,ended 0-3,,akhisar v belediye over 2.5 ,its currently 1-0 but i bet it ends up 1-1,2-0 then people say"lay it then"then you lay and and its 2-1,2-2,,no matter what you do luck is the deciding factor which can never be conquered
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akhisar v belediye over 2.5,,,,,,,its a formality this will end 1-1
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3 one on ones in the last 10 mins,,,is that down to my bad judgement or confidence,,,no its just bad fecking luck
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boyce, two things I would say to you. Stop betting
on sports played in foreign countries you know very little about, secondly stop backing on 'overs', try some negative bets, like low goals, low corner counts, etc., in effect bet on things NOT happening... |
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X vs Y
after 60 mins it is 0-0 you are tempted to lay 0-0 but you think you may loose You did not bet score is 1-0 at 62nd min now you lay 1-0 score remains 1-0. This is how you loose  |
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kenilworth and dsmith....
I trade out during play, which means that i don't ever leave my draw lay to run to full time unless it's someone like Man U vs Wigan (a team who've never taken a point off Man U) and United go a goal up. Taking the mick out of me for finding the 'holy grail'. Nice. Jealousy? I win what i win, i don't need to come on a forum to make myself look big - i'm also here to learn. My total draw lay/trade out stats are: 74 wins trading for profit, 4 losses taking odds of 2, and 2 games where the odds didn't move once a goal went in and i felt really strongly that an equaliser would come before they did, so traded out for an even £0.00. |
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Also, the reason for not winning are a combo of all the above plus the fact that the odds are always stacked against us. Most people don't have an edge so won't win long term.
I also don't like straight gambling. If i couldn't trade out on here i wouldn't be using it. Football is too unpredictable to ever be totally sure what will happen. The only things that i can see which are near-certain is the number of times certain things happen over the course of a season, and this is just down to reading the stats. |
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pipunch, my comment about the 'holy grail' was a joking response to
another poster who mentioned the expression earlier! You mention jealousy. Don't flatter yourself, as I am not jealous of anyone, I assure you, nor am I interested in what you do. |
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I think as with poker a lot of people who could be breakeven or small winners lose due to bad bankroll management, putting too much of their bank on individual bets.
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I think as with poker a lot of people who could be breakeven or small winners lose due to bad bankroll management, putting too much of their bank on individual bets.
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Poker's just a mugs game. I've won a fair few tournaments on SkyPoker (same name if anyone smells BS and wants to check) but in cash games it's too hard to win consistently unless you're playing massive stakes because at low stakes people just don't care.
Playing poker like the pro's do in tournies i think most of us could do well, but when it's 2p here, 10p there people will go in with anything and then it's just down to luck. I once raised big with AA, got re-raised, raised again, got a call. 10 2 3 comes on flop. I raise all in for about £8, i'm called. Person shows 9 5 offsuit. Next two cards? 9 and 5. If someone with such rubbish is willing to go in then there's absolutely nothing you can do about it. Poker = MUGS game and is absolutely nothing like betting, although i do agree that bankroll management is essential. |
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Another reason i think is too many people not doing their own research and following what everyone else is doing.
Eg, the other day i see a game where the stats for each team to win is pretty even, and someone was saying that they were going to back team A. All the stats showed team A would walk it despite the close odds. The odds for team A then drifted, so the guy decided to back the other team because 'there's such a big drift it's not likely they're going to win....all in on team B for me'. Retarded moves like this are a common occurance believe it or not - most people seem to think odds represent chance when what they need to understand is it represents opinion. If everyone thought Chelsea would get beat today they'd be underdogs in the betting regardless of the fact that statistically they are going to win. |
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X vs Y
after 60 mins it is 0-0 you are tempted to lay 0-0 but you think you may loose You did not bet score is 1-0 at 62nd min now you lay 1-0 score remains 1-0. This is how you loose at 69' u realise that it will remain 1-0 at back with sure loss...then at 80 2-0 ..then u thought u was idiot and lay 2-0 ...score remains this is how u loose |
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To win long-term you must have
a) An positive expectation on returns (an edge). This could be a mathematical edge (modelling) or a skill edge (trading/knowledge). b) Good bankroll management. Most people lose in casinos not because of the house edge, but because the house plays 1000s bets per day, the punter plays a few. The house has a massive (almost limitless) bank, then punter has a tiny bank. If you kept the shrewdies away it would be possible to open a casino which had a NEGATIVE expectation, but would still win long-term because punters cannot control their urges. |
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Mr Angry, I thought the way to win, WAS by being selective plus 'gut feeling'
signals, yet you seem to refute that as regards casino betting, so what is the difference between casino betting and sports betting regards 'gut feeling'? |
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Gut feeling is my edge.
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How does your gut differentiate between sports and casino betting ?
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Since there is no skill in casino betting gut feelings are meaningless.
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I'm down (about £10) for the first time this season. My one bet for today was to lay West Brom. Who could have predicted that West Brom would win 4-0 given that prior to todays game West Brom had won two games at home in the league this season and Sunderlands recent good form - the only reason I could see for anyone backing West Brom at that price would be to think that maybe they are 'due' a win because there form has been so poor - and this is a nonsense.
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I always undersood 'gut feeling' bets did not have a skill
but defied logic, so whatever you do has nothing to do with 'gut feeling' and your experience in betting guiding you. You and I have been down this road before and I am not trying to wind you up, but your definition of 'gut feeling' is different from most other peoples. Perhaps instinct (opinion based on expereience) would be a better word. |
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You could probably talk yourself into any bet with a gut feeling, and after the event praise yourself, but conveniently forget the gut feelings that lose, I had a feeling forest would win today, discussed it yesterday with a friend, thought we would carry a bit of momentum from last weeks win, also ha brum could be a little tired and under motivated after and before the Chelsea game and replay to come. But like I said its very rare I get a gut feeling forest are going to lose. That's maybe a little different to what you mean I guess
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the most important quality you can have in gambling is a point strategy, never bet more than 5 points on any bet and never over 3 points over evens !!!!!!!!!!
what pro punters are looking for is a steady income stream...money in the bank pays about 3.5% globally, investment bankers are paid £££££ to beat the market by 2% over a year. Why some illiterate unemployable mug from nowheresville think they can double their money every month is the reason most punters lose. |
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I think I'm probably like a lot of punters (especially the BF type) in that I mix both good and bad habits, and have a bit of a constant battle to alter the balance of that.
But, when there is always an 'entertainment' factor in betting then it will lead to some bad habits. Unfortunately I have never managed to 100% eliminate my urge to enjoy my betting pursuits, so maybe I won't ever completely do it. But if I can at least keep my head above the water then I'm content enough I suppose, by maximizing the times when I am on form and being more disciplined. |
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Just to add, obviously I'm not earning my living doing this (thank God!)
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i'd say you would need about £600K in the bank to do this successfully and to have some sort of family life.
and that would mean specialising in one or two sports and perhaps paying someone for information on top. I honestly believe many younger people are deluding themselves into believing this is a way to make a living. Play poker or get a real job if you want to make real money!! |
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If you had 600k you wouldn't need to win on here, lol
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re "gut feeling".
Feelings originate in the brain. The brain is trained by our experiences throughout life. Call it what you want (let's not argue about terminology), we all make decisions based upon the intellect contained within our skulls. |