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wilson1
01 Feb 12 11:26
Joined:
Date Joined: 31 Mar 11
| Topic/replies: 897 | Blogger: wilson1's blog
Looking at this game cant see why over 2.5 is so long any thoughts anyone>>
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Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:09 PM GMT
Aw false, traded out of all my unders so another goal = extra trades.
Report csibee • February 1, 2012 2:10 PM GMT
fake susp.. :(
Report Ixel • February 1, 2012 2:10 PM GMT
Surely backing under 6.5 on matches where it's likely they'll score low goals or none at all is a fairly easy way to make money slowly, that is if you have a large balance and the market can accommodate the large back bet (e.g. 700+).
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:11 PM GMT
Ixel why do you need a large balance?  I think it's an easy way to make money slowly with any bank.
Report Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 2:11 PM GMT
Come on lads, 1 goal to get me out of this mess
Report Mental • February 1, 2012 2:11 PM GMT
same here..need 1 goal!!!
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:11 PM GMT
You've changed your tune biscuit Cry
Report csibee • February 1, 2012 2:11 PM GMT
+1
Report Ixel • February 1, 2012 2:12 PM GMT
well if you back amount of 10 on odds of 1.02 you only get 0.20 (without 5% comm on top)? or is my maths wrong?
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:13 PM GMT
Yes, 19p with comm
Report Ixel • February 1, 2012 2:14 PM GMT
I see, yeah, well in my view that's not worth backing, but to some I suppose it is, just to me it seems such a small return, though obviously better than the bank's interest rate.
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:14 PM GMT
under 6.5 hit 1.08 or something in this game though, under 5.5 was above 1.3 at one point.  just for the class can you please post what odds you took on under 3.5 then switched onto over 3.5 at please Bisscuit
Report Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 2:15 PM GMT
loadedgimp 01 Feb 12 14:11 
You've changed your tune biscuit



Confused
Report qwertyuiopasd • February 1, 2012 2:15 PM GMT
i want a goal NOW!!!
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:17 PM GMT
goal would be nice add £3 onto my overall profits.
Report Ixel • February 1, 2012 2:17 PM GMT
Well, I think I'm going to switch to trying backing under 5.5/6.5 on matches where it's likely teams aren't going to get many goals, less risky than under 3.5 for sure :P.
Report qwertyuiopasd • February 1, 2012 2:17 PM GMT
stats suggest the will be a goal in the next 2 shots on target.... there hasnt been a shot on target since the 50th minute
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:18 PM GMT
anyone got live stream link please ?
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:18 PM GMT
who would want to stream this? :D
Report qwertyuiopasd • February 1, 2012 2:19 PM GMT
they're probably doing the "lets cross in front of goal routine"...i wouldnt want to watch that
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:19 PM GMT
Biscuit I say you changed your tune because you were on unders and now you need a goal whereas if you were on unders still you wouldn't need anything.  I did warn people they might sit here wishing for a goal for 45 minutes.  I hope it comes but still believe it was bad value.  Please can you fill in the gaps:

Back under 3.5 at start of match odds:
Switch to back over 3.5 after 3 goals at odds:
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:22 PM GMT
im guessing hes locked in profits.
Report cayci06 • February 1, 2012 2:22 PM GMT
lay 4.5 under
come boyss we need goalssssssss
:)
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:23 PM GMT
that doesnt look good^^
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:24 PM GMT
They will never ever score another goal, i bet a million!!!
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:24 PM GMT
*waiting*
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:24 PM GMT
jinx jinx
Report Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 2:25 PM GMT
Loaded - backed it at 1.7, switched at half time when it was 1.33 i think.

A fine example this, in sticking with your intitial choice and trusting your original instinct.

Instead i'm now going to lose even more than i'd have lost had i kept my initial bet and we'd got a 4th goal, brilliant!! Sad

Oh well plenty more games left in the day
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:27 PM GMT
goal coming, trust me
Report bloomy08 • February 1, 2012 2:28 PM GMT
come on one goal...
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:28 PM GMT
probably 93rd
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:28 PM GMT
My point is unders doesn't lose until it loses, and overs will always be harder to land.  Stick a trade in for the odds you need and be patient.  Prele goal may come but you have lost out on 2.7 ticks while you are waiting.
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:29 PM GMT
i already won o1.5 and o2.5, if there is no o3.5 im still in plus
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:29 PM GMT
+o0.5
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:29 PM GMT
but id prefer to win this as well :)
Report wilson1 • February 1, 2012 2:29 PM GMT
just layed enppi for a laugh
Report qwertyuiopasd • February 1, 2012 2:30 PM GMT
2 goals for Bani (2nd Take) come on BANI!!!!!
Report amd1 • February 1, 2012 2:30 PM GMT
just made one of those stupid bets to back my talk on a draw.. let's see
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:30 PM GMT
loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:40 PM GMT
I hope you all learnt from the Libertad game last night, who sat there for 45 minutes after betting there would be another goal in the second half only to be saved in the last minute?  It's not a great value bet.  That said betting over 3.5 is different to laying CS

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:42 PM GMT
But if you do bet over 3.5 cover it with under 6.5 or 5.5 and if a goal comes back over 4.5 simples

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:45 PM GMT
Wilson how are you judging the 2nd half by the first?
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:30 PM GMT
but its ridiculous how often games with 3 or more goals 1st half have 1 or none in 2nd
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
the draw is 10/1 bani had 3 shots on target can't see if happening but you never know.
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
GOAL!!!!!!!!!!!
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
hope so
Report littledevil91 • February 1, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
no goal
Report csibee • February 1, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
no goal :(
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
but dont think so
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
MAYBE NOT ARGH...
Report henok • February 1, 2012 2:32 PM GMT

Feb 1, 2012 -- 2:31PM, prele wrote:


hope so


that is no good

Report Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 2:32 PM GMT
I can see your point loaded and if there hadn't been a 3rd goal with the last kick of the half i'd have left my bet as i'd have had a 2 goal cushion.

But with only the 1 goal cushion i'd rather be waiting for a goal than knowing a goal will kill my bet, just the way i prefer things i guess.
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:32 PM GMT
the next goal subspended before everything so i was like GET IN lol
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:32 PM GMT
1-3 be lovely :)
Report csibee • February 1, 2012 2:32 PM GMT
as usual ... this fooookers score 3 times before HT.. and they cannot shot one more on the whole second period!!!!!
Report qwertyuiopasd • February 1, 2012 2:32 PM GMT
no no no 3-2 would be lovely!!!
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:32 PM GMT
Is anyone paying attention to the point I am making, if not I will stop banging on about it.  Biscuit you really should have laid 1-1 at 1.07 as cover like I did.
Report littledevil91 • February 1, 2012 2:33 PM GMT
I could do with 2 goals, lmao not going to happen
Report csibee • February 1, 2012 2:33 PM GMT
last time.. there was no goal before HT.. and FT was 5-0 .. lol?
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:33 PM GMT
this time its the over way around
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:33 PM GMT
and ofc they are injured now all the time
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:33 PM GMT
csibee that is fine for betting, a goalless first half creates value on overs, a goalfest first half creates value on unders.
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:33 PM GMT
football is strange. same as horse racing horses fall, no ones expecting it.
Report wilson1 • February 1, 2012 2:34 PM GMT
loaded i stopped paying attention when i realised that i was sat with over £150 worth of green in this game decided i knew what i was doing thanks
Report Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 2:35 PM GMT
Oh well Turkey at 4pm
Report csibee • February 1, 2012 2:35 PM GMT
@loadedgimp : If i bet on overs it'll be unders .. if i bet on unders there will be goalfest. I'll make a statistic for that :D
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:36 PM GMT
just waiting for the goal in 93rd min
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:36 PM GMT
ANYONE WATCHING WILL THEY BE A GOAL?
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:36 PM GMT
not a goal, just regular bet365 closing the markets stuff
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:36 PM GMT
ok wilson, pure luck that it came in but well done if you consistently profit on overs.  I was merely trying to help people.  Good luck guys I leave this game, losing my over 3.5 bet if it stays like this, traded out of under 5.5 6.5 - csibee you have far more chance of making 100% of your stake if you go unders than overs.  I wish everyone the best.
Report wilson1 • February 1, 2012 2:36 PM GMT
is every bet that wins pure luck then?!
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:37 PM GMT
goal or full time?
Report wilson1 • February 1, 2012 2:37 PM GMT
goal?!
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:37 PM GMT
Yup you hit the nail on the head there wilson.
Report henok • February 1, 2012 2:37 PM GMT
suspend monkey teasing goal backers
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:38 PM GMT
Just clarify how you knew this game would be over 2.5 (a 50/50 shot that lands when it finishes with 3 goals)
Report Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 2:38 PM GMT
7 minutes injury time
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:38 PM GMT
7 MINUTE  WHAT IN THE WORLD I SMELL FIX LOL 7 MINUTES... WHY ? THEY IS NO REASON, BUT HEY...
Report wilson1 • February 1, 2012 2:39 PM GMT
i didnt know....if i knew i would have remorgated the house and put that on it...all betting is speculative one cant be certain of anything i betting however that doesnt mean its purely luck.
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:39 PM GMT
well, loads of (fake) injuries
Report Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 2:39 PM GMT
there could be 27 and these wouldn't score
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:40 PM GMT
im in profit anyways but 3-2 & 3-1 be nice for extra profits.
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:40 PM GMT
cash out options pop'd up i smell GOAL...
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:40 PM GMT
I didn't say its purely luck, I said it's lucky the over 2.5 landed.  But you disagree despite there only being a dodgy penalty that turned your losing bet into a winner?
Report Sabel • February 1, 2012 2:40 PM GMT
check your nose
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:41 PM GMT
which coincidentally made my lay at 1.07 a winner? (pure luck IMO but I only did it because I was covering my unders)
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:41 PM GMT
DRAW 50 SHINES WELL...
Report cayci06 • February 1, 2012 2:42 PM GMT
dear friends,

be carefull GALATASARAY because in istanbul snowing and so cold
Report Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 2:42 PM GMT
1-2 FT, what a fine example on how not to bet on a game
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:42 PM GMT
end
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:43 PM GMT
i wish i stayed with my £5 profit at h/t now i lost £25 lol
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:43 PM GMT
same as me, saying no o3.5 and then going in against my stomach feelinhg
Report prele • February 1, 2012 2:44 PM GMT
-h
Report wilson1 • February 1, 2012 2:44 PM GMT
of course its lucky the overs game in but im afraid they did and to me thats all i care about.....your a tough school if everytime a bet wins its lucky....give some credit to yourelf and others
Report meltdown • February 1, 2012 2:45 PM GMT
£5 profit h/t with horse race in thats £13 profit first game first horse race now -£5
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:51 PM GMT
loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 12:46 PM GMT
130 to lay over 6.5  think ill go with under 4.5

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:07 PM GMT
kirilkach I was on under 4.5 market and 1.07 disappeared from lay side before goal.  I normally think about jumping out at that point but over 50% of my stake was out so I left it.  On under 4.5 again at 1.13

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:16 PM GMT
0-1 0-2 or 1-1 FT I guess but I wouldn't put money on it.

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:19 PM GMT
Ixel I usually aim to have half my stake out before the first goal (the other half is queued up waiting for better odds) and if a goal comes before I am fully greened I buy in again confident in my under selection.

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:19 PM GMT
Under 4.5 is back to SP.

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:20 PM GMT
So mine is fully out, unfortunate if there is a goal for under 3.5 backers

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:28 PM GMT
Maybe wilson, depends how much you put on under 4.5 and 5.5, I got out of under 4.5 for little risk.  I won on over 1.5, on under 5.5 and 6.5 after the 2nd goal and put 50% of current profit on over 2.5

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:32 PM GMT
Oh wow more goals than I expect so far.  Qwerty very unlucky, but you could have laid 1-1 at 1.07

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:33 PM GMT
yes prele feel relatively safe on under 5.5 and 6.5 still.

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:36 PM GMT
Not for you Ixel, but for me I believe the bet wins, not if I was chasing my losses without any ideas of my own. Csibee I wouldn't be telling people to lay the worst value bet here. (refers to laying 1-2 FT at halftime)

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:40 PM GMT
I hope you all learnt from the Libertad game last night, who sat there for 45 minutes after betting there would be another goal in the second half only to be saved in the last minute?  It's not a great value bet.  That said betting over 3.5 is different to laying CS

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:42 PM GMT
But if you do bet over 3.5 cover it with under 6.5 or 5.5 and if a goal comes back over 4.5 simples

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:45 PM GMT
csibee I don't pretend I know anything about this game, I just bet as risk-free as possible.  I currently have 1.05 odds on under 5.5 and 1.02 odds on under 6.5 - I won over 1.5 over 2.5 1-1 lay at 1.07 HT and am now on over 3.5, under 4.5 traded successfully twice in and out before the 2 goals.

loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:45 PM GMT
Wilson how are you judging the 2nd half by the first?

wilson1 • February 1, 2012 1:47 PM GMT
the ease at which they scored not exactly loads of open chances and yet there have still been goals...home team has to go for it now which will lead to open spaces....

prele • February 1, 2012 1:48 PM GMT
So, will there be another goal? Vote YES or NO
Report•Quote prele • February 1, 2012 1:48 PM GMT
YES
Report•Quote loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:48 PM GMT
ok how about I say the lack of goals these two normally score, barely any chances...away team want to defend their lead...lucky pen to make the game seem more goalbound....
loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 1:49 PM GMT
or

Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 1:51 PM GMT
Right i HATE backing unders. I've switched bets, i'd rather hope and pray for another goal than sit here knowing a lucky deflection, mis-hit cross or dodgy pen will lose me my bet.

Come on the second half goal!!
Report•Quote Mental • February 1, 2012 1:51 PM GMT
i laed 1-2 CS... now wating...
Report•Quote prele • February 1, 2012 1:53 PM GMT
**** it, o3.5, here we go
Report henok • February 1, 2012 2:52 PM GMT
anyone on the next games
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:54 PM GMT
for those who don't bother reading a thread to see where they went wrong, sound advice every step of the way.  wilson I am not knocking your bet but you saying it won gives any ground to you knowing what you are doing and enabling you to ignore my advice is ridiculous.  If you can't see 3 first half goals does not make over 2.5 a good bet then I am obviously wasting my time. I kept banging on about it as I feel sorry for the ten or more times I kept quiet.  This is a valuable punting lesson.  Best of all it was free, and can save you from blowing your bank like I used to constantly.

Anyway peace out, hope someone learns something.
Report Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 2:55 PM GMT
that's a lot of copy and pasting to make yourself look even more of a smart arse when you already proved your point about half an hour ago Laugh
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 2:57 PM GMT
Yes Biscuit it may seem big headed but it saves people reading the whole thread which I doubt anyone was going to anyway, besides I won't be typing out that amount of advice again nor will I be trying to tell everyone what to do again. Like I said free advice, take it or leave it.  But don't think Wilson knows what he was doing
Report loadedgimp • February 1, 2012 3:00 PM GMT
This will soon fall off the bottom of the first page and be confined to forum history, but the lesson I learnt and detailed here has saved me countless times, I wish you all luck, from now on the only forum posting I do will be on my 'Nobody should lay this multi' thread and will only help with that.
Report Biscuit1979 • February 1, 2012 3:09 PM GMT
Loaded - sent you a PM instead. See what you think.
Report buzzer • February 1, 2012 3:10 PM GMT
Wilson thought, as he posted, that over 2.5 was priced too big so he bet. That's the correct thing to do as long as he was getting the best possible price by checking all available options his reasoning for his bet was sound and whether it won or lost was by the by. In gambling, over the long term, there's a fine line between winning and losing, even the extremely successful operate on tight margins it's the nature of the beast, so getting the best possible price is paramount even though many on here fail to see that and state a winner is a winner....you can't eat value........rather have a 1-2 winner than a 10-1 loser and many other mindless quotes.
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