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Backing 0-0 with a view to trade, new era update!
Backing 0-0 with a view to trade, new era update!
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Replies: 671
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Was that the fastest goal ever?
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stressful minutes is a good way to describe betfair trading!!!!
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was it a shot from kickoff lads what happened
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why bollox arthur?
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just tried it on the Vélez Sarsfield v Universidad Católica match there was a goal in the first minute[:(]
going back to horse racing. |
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its a frak goal and im not worried about losing on that one how often do you get a goal in the fitst minute of a game like that
i was thinking of trading the 0-1 now but deided against it |
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Unlucky if you got stung by Velez.
I would say though if your thinking of trading CS long term and making it pay, try to find more than 1 line to trade on. I divide all matches into snoozefest or goalfest(whether the match pans out as planned is largely irrelevant) and then trade certain lines accordingly, usually 3 or 4 lines but anything upto 10 lines, thus greatly increasing the chance of a decent green pre ko or at worst the chance to green seconds into the match. |
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what do you mean by lines ricki
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When you back 0 - 0, do you choose matches between teams who are generally low-scoring or do you prefer betting on matches where the odds for 0 - 0 Correct Score are high (where goals are expected) and hope for a slow start to the game?
Also, maybe it's an idea to consider keeping a record of the lay odds for First Goal Odds as well and comparing the two. I haven't done the maths (yet), but over time I can imagine that laying 0 - 10 minutes in that market might return more profit compared to backing 0 - 0 and laying off -- at least I assume that it often takes longer than 10 minutes for those odds to drop enough to make laying off worth the risk/effort over all possible outcomes? Anyway, if you compared these two markets for a great number of matches and wrote down the time of the first goal, the highest/lowest odds in them and/or what your relative return would've been, you might find that it gives you a better return overall. (Another advantage would be that the market settles immediately after the first goal has been scored, meaning you don't have to wait until the 90 minutes are up or one of the teams scores four goals.) |
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ive been stung 3 times today
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The possible scores=lines 0-0 1-0 1-1 etc
If Idve just been on 0-0 or it was earlier in the day, I might well have given it a few minutes and took a shafting with the rest, thankfully I was on 3 lines, did 8 ticks worth and took the green pre ko. |
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That seems a lot of work to me Quantsh, but each to their own, if you find it benificial why the hell not eh. The most I do for research these days is check on overs/unders2.5, thats usually a helpful guide.
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do you mean the over under/over betting as indicator of a slow game or fast game
i believe when you watch enough football you can tell the differences in pace the english game very fast and open souuth america slow execpt for chile |
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do you have to wait ten mins im getting confused i hear people saying wait ten mins i hear other people saying green up as soon as posssible even before the game starts
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I haven't tried it out, I was just 'thinking out loud' after reading some of the messages in this thread. It's just that in both cases you want the same scenario to happen: no early goal. In the First Goal Odds market, you know you have achieved your target if there has been no goal scored after 10 minutes. In the 0 - 0 Correct Score market, have the odds always dropped enough to achieve the same relative return? I can imagine that sometimes the expectancy of goals in a match works against you.
For example, the cup match Ajax Amsterdam -v- RKC Waalwijk (The Netherlands) today was expected to have many goals in it. It ended 5 - 1 to Ajax, but the first goal wasn't scored until the 13th minute. I wasn't home when the match was played, so I can't tell you the odds of each market pre-game and at the time the first goal was scored, but I can imagine that people were willing to lay 0 - 0 Correct Score at higher odds than they would in matches where goals are less expected because they 'knew', or at least expected, there to be an early goal. For someone backing 0 - 0 and looking for a quick get-out, that would have negatively affected the odds, as they may not have dropped significantly by the time the first goal was scored (which you needed them to in order to make a decent return (in relation to the risk you took)). I think I'll give this a try this weekend and post the results in this thread, if that's okay? |
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the odds were around 50 and dropped for a get out. the madrid game i was on at 36 before kick off and they rose to 40 before kick off but still managed to get out
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I use the 2.5 market more for an indication of how other scores might trade rather than 0-0, the clues in the market name really[;)].
Looks like Velez was the wrong pick for the 0-0 tactic, Gremio 30ish pre ko scored just before HT lowest trade 7.4  . No Liquidity Olimpia match, so back to Wta for me[smiley:crazy] |
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its up to you when you green up. it depends on how much you have on. i only use a small amount at the moment so take a bit of a risk.
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true mate you could just lay first goal 0-10 mins if your going to wait 10 mins imho
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feck that 0-10 mins crap you cant green up on that
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Im not touching english scotish irish or dutch or german football or scandavian football either
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just greened up on olimpia game before ko. 10% profit
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arthur i mean laying the 0-0 0-10 mins
anyway im on saprissa game |
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i've greened out on that already
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If this is profitable, then you should look at the results you would have got if you'd solely backed, or solely layed to find out which way the disproportionate price swing is motivated i.e. is the market consistently underestimating the significance of x minutes without a goal, or overestimating it, and then proceed by solely backing/ solely laying accordingly.
There's no way the market is arbitrarily underestimating and then overestimating to cause a disproportionate price swing. It's surely one or the other. |
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No you can't green out in the First Goal Odds market, and that's a risk. The question I would like an answer to is whether backing 0 - 0 pre-match and laying off before 10 minutes have been played is 'worth it'.
If you stake 25 pounds/euros at 40 and lay off at 35 for an equal profit all around, you'd make ~4.20 pounds/euros (or 16.8%). If you stake 25 pounds/euros at 15 and lay off at 13 for an equal profit all around, you'd make ~3.60 pounds/euros (or 14.4%). What you need to know is how long it would take for the odds to drop from 40 to 35 and 15 to 13, respectively. Obviously it's different for every game, but a general rule of thumb would be very helpful. Relatively speaking, those are all great results, but it would require great discipline and you should always get out after a predetermined number of 'ticks' (0.5 points, or 2.0 points, or ... depending on the odds you backed at). Not getting greedy and letting it ride for 'just one more minute' when you set yourself a target of laying off at 'those' odds is very important and not everyone can do it. To make more money, you'd need more time -- in such cases, laying 0 - 10 minutes might prove to be a more sensible/profitable bet over time. Even if the lay odds are around 7.5, you'd still make a profit of ~15.4% if there is no goal in the first 10 minutes. I am probably wrong, but I can't help but think that it will often take more than 10 minutes to achieve such relative profits in the Correct Score market? Only one way to find out, eh?  Starts in 10 minutes: LDU Quito -v- Independiente. First Goal Odds: 1 - 10 minutes @ 5.40 (LAY), which translates to 1.227 odds to back. Stake of 100 pounds/euros (liability), your profit after 5% commission will be 21.57 pounds/euros if it comes in. Correct Score 0 - 0 is currently at 14.0. If you stake 100 pounds/euros, you need the odds to drop to approximately 11.4 to achieve a similar result over all possible outcomes -- which means you need to get to 11.0 as only 11.5 or 11.0 are available. I'm not betting any money just yet, just curious to find out how long it takes for the 0 - 0 Correct Score odds to reach 11.0. (As I write this, odds are down to 13 already and the game hasn't started yet. Not sure if this is a good example anymore, but now that I've written it I'm also going to post it.  ) |
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12.5 now, even -- down 1.5 points even before a ball has been kicked. Nothing major, but it may ruin my 'theory' that laying 0 - 10 minutes is a better choice.
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two libertadores games coming up
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green on caracas game i win 10p if it has a goal and i win 5p if there is a 0-0
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green on ldu quito game
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i have green on ldu game aswell.
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i just green up even if its one tick on the geeks toy the green comes up i hit green
im going to avoid english irish scotish welsh dutch german belgisn scandanavia qatar uae chile leagues and i may avoid the japanese and koream leagues dont know what there like yet |
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Goal for LDU Quito came a bit early, unfortunately. Now I had a stopwatch running from the moment the market went in play and it said 10:25 had elapsed when the market was suspended for the goal, but Betfair Live Score says a goal was scored in the 10th minute. Not sure if anyone can verify that, but fact is that 11.0 hadn't traded on the 0 - 0 Correct Score market, either (lowest: 11.50 for 112 euros) so if Betfair are right (I'll have to assume they are as I am not watching), both bets would've lost in this case. (However, shortly before kick-off the odds for 1 - 10 minutes had also dropped to below 5.0, so theoretically there was a little more profit to be had there.)
Do you guys have a strict set of rules on when to trade out, i.e. back at odds 25.5 or higher, lay off after odds have dropped 5 points, back at odds 20.5 - 25.0, lay off after odds have dropped 3 points, etc. etc. or do you aim for a certain profit and only green out when it comes to that point? |
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Also, when you say "I make 5p if this way and 10p if that way," how much did you stake? Because if that's not at least 8% profit, you'd be better off putting it in a savings account.
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its called practicing you fecking numpty ok lets not practice and put a 1000 pound on you fool
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sorry for the remark i thought you were being offensive my mistake i stake 2 pound but i grren up as soon as possble i dont wait ten mins
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For those people holding out to ten mins you can get 10 min goal betting on bet365
william hill try and pull a sneaky one by only offering 15 mins |
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Again some good posts on this thread. Particularly interested in what Rickie said about being able to green up BEFORE kick off in some low scoring leagues. If we could all do that all the time, then we really would be onto a winner!
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b;ack cat - backed real madrid 0-0 at 38s, i had to small red out at 7pm as was going out. however, i expect 10 mins into the game it would have dropped to late 20s? first goal wasnt til 27th minute. not that my nerves wud have held that long!!
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Pity Paulol, but so far, I think that you would agree, a worthwhile experiment.
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