Why do Bookmakers get the lower league odds so wrong ?????

Is this some sort of joke?

No really? What possessed you to spend some of your time typing all that?

Im looking for an answer

Might help when you have the so called big three in the premiership..

But you know the answer already don't you?

nope

Maybe spend the evening pondering over the average price of a Premier League odds on chance and the average price of a League Two odds on shot then.

Crawley matched as low as 1.51 against Tamworth tonight! unreal

OK
Premiership
1.1
1.11
1.14
1.17
1.17
1.22
1.22
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.33
1.4
1.44
1.5
1.57
1.62
1.7
1.8
1.83
1.83
1.83
1.91
1.91

League 2

1.53
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.7
1.73
1.73
1.73
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.83
1.83
1.83
1.83
1.91
1.91
1.91
1.91
1.91
1.91
1.91
1.91

odds on on Tv are noticeable for going down, noticed that last season (from memory)

if you take it from 1.50 in the premier its still 60% 6/10

Not really sure if you are genuine Baker or you come from the Umar school of betfair betting..

Joey Bartons cell mate.
Both :)

if you lay every odds on game in league 2 you would show a profit this season not massive but still a profit

You would if you could lay bookmakers prices. Sadly you can't.

fair point Mick but some of the prices on here were lower believe it or not

cardiff 1.54 qpr 1.69 leeds 1.83 last night.

ill put the championship one up now give me 2 secs

32 odds on favs at home 17 winners (52%)

bookies make the majority of their football money on MUG bets,inc but not exclusively all accas,multis, yankees etc all the first scorer type nonsense and ALL  the "exotic" bet nonsense.."messi to hit the post" "rooney to score from a corner" etc etc etc

HTH

horseman Joined: 26 Feb 03
Replies: 298 29 Sep 10 17:26 
bookies make the majority of their football money on MUG bets,inc but not exclusively all accas,multis,

rubbish. i made a few quid off bookmakers the last few years and i didn't place a single single.

Why do Bookmakers get the lower league odds so wrong ?????

In your dreams.

horseman Joined: 26 Feb 03
Replies: 298 29 Sep 10 17:26
bookies make the majority of their football money on MUG bets,inc but not exclusively all accas,multis,

rubbish. i made a few quid off bookmakers the last few years and i didn't place a single single.

I dont doubt you did, but anyone who knows anything whatsoever how a modern day bookmakers runs its football book would know exactly what i meant.Of course an inteligent punter can occasionally cherry pick a handsome bet on these markets but those bets,like the FOBTs and virtual racing are there for MUGS only in the terms of a bookies profit.

horseman, I agree broadly with what you say, but I find it hard to believe
they take much money on the fun bets you mention 'Messi to hit the post' etc
I bet they wish they did !! I was in the betting shop business for a long time
but not anymore, and I imagine it has changed a lot since then, but in my time
the money was made on the correct score, h/t-f/t, 1st goal scorer, in fact
the sort of things they advertise in the press. They (we) didn't really like
single bets. No margin.

kenilworth     29 Sep 10 18:27 
Why do Bookmakers get the lower league odds so wrong ?????

In your dreams.

Facts:-
Premiership:-
Teams odds on at Home 151 winners 112 (75%)
League 2
Teams odds on at home 193 winners 101 (52%)

This season
Premiership
Teams odds on at Home 23 winners 17 (73%)
League 2
Teams odds on at home 28 winners 12 (42%)

Those figures do not prove anything about the validity of bookmakers prices though. Originally I thought you were fishing, now I assume you're just confused/don't really understand what you're talking about.

How can the bookies have the prices wrong when its the punters betting on them??

They prove odds on in league 2 get turned over more then the premier

you are probably right, MMFP.  I was going to enter into the discussion with the op, but I think it would be a waste of time

who sets the price first the Punter ????? theses are the starting prices if you like the odds that are first posted ;)

This thread

please give me your wise words

I could argue with you but l think l would end up going round in circles.

Have you taken into account the prices of Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal and how many times they lose.

If your fishing well done..

^

The newbies around here can't even fish properly. It's other people you're meant to make look silly, not yourself.

Ok, I'll bite.

Here is a table.  Look up the odds of the winning result for each game, and read off the number of points you get from it in the second column.  The more points given out over time, the worse for the bookie.

1.01	1
1.02	2
1.03	3
1.04	4
1.05	5
1.06	6
1.07	7
1.08	8
1.09	9
1.1	10
1.11	11
1.12	12
1.13	13
1.14	14
1.15	15
1.16	16
1.17	17
1.18	18
1.19	19
1.2	20
1.21	21
1.22	22
1.23	23
1.24	24
1.25	25
1.26	26
1.27	27
1.28	28
1.29	29
1.3	30
1.31	31
1.32	32
1.33	33
1.34	34
1.35	35
1.36	36
1.37	37
1.38	38
1.39	39
1.4	40
1.41	41
1.42	42
1.43	43
1.44	44
1.45	45
1.46	46
1.47	47
1.48	48
1.49	49
1.5	50
1.51	51
1.52	52
1.53	53
1.54	54
1.55	55
1.56	56
1.57	57
1.58	58
1.59	59
1.6	60
1.61	61
1.62	62
1.63	63
1.64	64
1.65	65
1.66	66
1.67	67
1.68	68
1.69	69
1.7	70
1.71	71
1.72	72
1.73	73
1.74	74
1.75	75
1.76	76
1.77	77
1.78	78
1.79	79
1.8	80
1.81	81
1.82	82
1.83	83
1.84	84
1.85	85
1.86	86
1.87	87
1.88	88
1.89	89
1.9	90
1.91	91
1.92	92
1.93	93
1.94	94
1.95	95
1.96	96
1.97	97
1.98	98
1.99	99
2	100
2.02	102
2.04	104
2.06	106
2.08	108
2.1	110
2.12	112
2.14	114
2.16	116
2.18	118
2.2	120
2.22	122
2.24	124
2.26	126
2.28	128
2.3	130
2.32	132
2.34	134
2.36	136
2.38	138
2.4	140
2.42	142
2.44	144
2.46	146
2.48	148
2.5	150
2.52	152
2.54	154
2.56	156
2.58	158
2.6	160
2.62	162
2.64	164
2.66	166
2.68	168
2.7	170
2.72	172
2.74	174
2.76	176
2.78	178
2.8	180
2.82	182
2.84	184
2.86	186
2.88	188
2.9	190
2.92	192
2.94	194
2.96	196
2.98	198
3	200
3.05	205
3.1	210
3.15	215
3.2	220
3.25	225
3.3	230
3.35	235
3.4	240
3.45	245
3.5	250
3.55	255
3.6	260
3.65	265
3.7	270
3.75	275
3.8	280
3.85	285
3.9	290
3.95	295
4	300
4.1	310
4.2	320
4.3	330
4.4	340
4.5	350
4.6	360
4.7	370
4.8	380
4.9	390
5	400
5.1	410
5.2	420
5.3	430
5.4	440
5.5	450
5.6	460
5.7	470
5.8	480
5.9	490
6	500
6.2	520
6.4	540
6.6	560
6.8	580
7	600
7.2	620
7.4	640
7.6	660
7.8	680
8	700
8.2	720
8.4	740
8.6	760
8.8	780
9	800
9.2	820
9.4	840
9.6	860
9.8	880
10	900
10.5	950
11	1000
11.5	1050
12	1100
12.5	1150
13	1200
13.5	1250
14	1300
14.5	1350
15	1400
15.5	1450
16	1500
16.5	1550
17	1600
17.5	1650
18	1700
18.5	1750
19	1800
19.5	1850
20	1900
21	2000
22	2100
23	2200
24	2300
25	2400
26	2500
27	2600
28	2700
29	2800
30	2900
32	3100
34	3300
36	3500
38	3700
40	3900
42	4100
44	4300
46	4500
48	4700
50	4900
55	5400
60	5900
65	6400
70	6900
75	7400
80	7900
85	8400
90	8900
95	9400
100	9900
110	10900
120	11900
130	12900
140	13900
150	14900
160	15900
170	16900
180	17900
190	18900
200	19900
210	20900
220	21900
230	22900
240	23900
250	24900
260	25900
270	26900
280	27900
290	28900
300	29900
310	30900
320	31900
330	32900
340	33900
350	34900
360	35900
370	36900
380	37900
390	38900
400	39900
410	40900
420	41900
430	42900
440	43900
450	44900
460	45900
470	46900
480	47900
490	48900
500	49900
510	50900
520	51900
530	52900
540	53900
550	54900
560	55900
570	56900
580	57900
590	58900
600	59900
610	60900
620	61900
630	62900
640	63900
650	64900
660	65900
670	66900
680	67900
690	68900
700	69900
710	70900
720	71900
730	72900
740	73900
750	74900
760	75900
770	76900
780	77900
790	78900
800	79900
810	80900
820	81900
830	82900
840	83900
850	84900
860	85900
870	86900
880	87900
890	88900
900	89900
910	90900
920	91900
930	92900
940	93900
950	94900
960	95900
970	96900
980	97900
990	98900
1000	99900

This is very rudimentary so don't base a system on it, but you should see an interesting pattern emerge.

Sometimes they're the best though Mick!

German league last year 62% odds on winners ;)

find a top league lower then 52%

Are you on crack?

if you find a top league lower then 52% then yes i am ;)

And does it make any difference to you what the average price of those odds on favourites is?

who you like me to tell you ??????

who you like me to tell you ??????

if in am you're not saying is who ever get

You spin me right round, baby, right round
like a record baby, right round round round.
You spin me right round, baby, right round
like a record baby, right round round round.


Repeat 356 times or until your bored..

no thanks

This thread is nonsense stats but anyway I'll bite: IPL3 group stages, the favourites won 28/56 times, there was 1 draw and the favourites lost 27 times.

That's a 50% strike rate, coin tossing would have been as effective for picking the favourite.

Odds on chances in the lower divisions fail more often than
the top division because their prices average higher. It's
as simple as that.

total joke of a thread , surely fishing

"Knowledge drops as you go down through the leagues. As the table becomes more important for the punter, so does the need for the bookmaker to reflect this in their odds to protect liabilites," is what someone might say.

[;)]