My value finding spreadsheet

There was also some value in Barcelona 3-0 but I won't really be doing correct scores just yet, just match odds and unders/overs.

so waht is on this spreadsheet then?

Don't expect to get a good reception.

This is what I don't get about the forum. Everyone seems to know what value is yet everyone also seems to think it will be discovered over one bet or a few bets.
It means you'll come out on top after many bets it doesn't mean that each bet you've found 'value' on will automatically win.

@tobermory  it works out the fair odds for match odds, all the overs/unders markets and correct scores.

@JOCI Club, i know mate, seen it all before just posting them coz i am bored and usually post my tennis stuff on my blog but the tennis is on hold til Jan so started this for a laugh.

@ Rocket to the FACE. I know what value is and how you make money from it. Most of the bets my spreadsheet pulls up are odds against and who doesnt love an odds against winner. [;)]

lets watch them all lose now.

@tobermory, just realised that wasnt too much info, i basically input some stats into it and it calculates the "true" odds.

I then check the markets and if its better odds then its value according to this. It's pretty close to be honest with most markets and those were the only bets from tonights matches although there were a few matches with "poor value" draw odds so could have been worth a lay.

if you do well with this you will be a legend and as JOCI Club says if you dont get at least 75% right then after a day you and your spreadsheet will be a MUG..

good luck anyway

especially based on anything to do with true odds.. most of the mongs on here havent a clue about true odds  or at least how to work them out lol

Rocket to the FACE     28 Sep 10 23:28 
This is what I don't get about the forum. Everyone seems to know what value is yet everyone also seems to think it will be discovered over one bet or a few bets.
It means you'll come out on top after many bets it doesn't mean that each bet you've found 'value' on will automatically win.

dunno if you see much of the drivel posted on nights mate but i was trying to explain this the other night to a few who think that a losing bet is automatically a bad bet in the long term even if you know the odds are wrong: ie in your favour. it was like banging my head against a brick wall.

i expect ill be a massive mug but its a bit of a laugh isnt it?  Some £2 bets on them will make the matches slightly more interesting to follow too.

ive been called a mug so many times im warming to the idea, even though it was bigger mugs doing the calling!

ive seen that so many times before morrissey, big time with schalke on his thread on gen betting. always spouting crap that winners are better than value but he ended up going bust...again.

just look at the night time threads mate.. all reckon they are massive winners etc but some didnt know the real winning chance of a 4/1 shot and then others said to me that i look too hard for the odds etc rather than what will happen in the match..

i told them all that madrid, bayern and arsenal were too short and should be laid to trade out later.. and yet even thuogh i obv had chances to lay out (late winners for madrid and bayern and arsenal 1-1 until the second half lol im a mug and lost all my money!! unbelievable.. they are decent enough lads though but do make me laugh

Well morrissey, i'll prepare for a conversation about value with some people then but if they can't take it in then there is no point banging my head against the wall like you did, I'll just let them think what they want.

You can't eat value

Just checked the Barcelona match again and there is another bet. I will give all the odds that this spreadsheet has come up with for this match.

Match Odds
Rubin Kazan 5.58 (i would look for at least 6.7 on outsider at these odds to back)
Draw 4.29 (like i said before some matches show as poor value to back the draw and could be worth laying but im starting by backing value)
Barcelona 1.73

Over 1.5gls - 1.36
Under 1.5gls - 3.74 (minimal value on under 1.5)

Over 2.5gls - 2.08 Value here now it's drifted to 2.22, yesterday it was around 2.08 so no bet then.
Under 2.5gls - 1.93 poor value

It does 3.5 and 4.5 goals too but you get my drift i hope.

Another bet for this evening then is now

Rubin Kazan v Barcelona - Back over 2.5gls - 2.22

*should read minimal value on OVER 1.5gls, not under 1.5gls.

Value won't put beans on your toast.

did you spell Red Bull wrongly when creating your user name and end up with rod hull

The Forum Breader Joined: 22 Feb 09
Replies: 1105 29 Sep 10 16:29 
Value won't put beans on your toast.

True but i can afford beans away from my betting so I'll manage.


Steveirll Joined: 05 Mar 08
Replies: 10130 29 Sep 10 16:31 
did you spell Red Bull wrongly when creating your user name and end up with rod hull

Yes.

best of luck with this - i do something similar so will follow your picks and see how your doing. Mind you to have thick skin to stick up anything on this forum, stand by for the insults.

im more than ready for it mate, im usually the one giving the idiots out to a few idiots on the tennis forum.

It's only to see how it does for a few weeks, it might find some nice picks it might be completely rubbish. we will have to wait and see.

4/8 tonight so 50% strike rate and the £2 bets made a loss of £1.18.

A loss of just over half a point isn't too bad considering one of the bets was @ odds of 7.2 which won't win all the time. Without that one it would have been a little profit.

I'll have a look at some of the Europa matches now and maybe put a few bets up should there be any.

JOCI Club     28 Sep 10 23:25 
Don't expect to get a good reception.



That's why I love this forum.  The funniest comment of the year, brilliantly delivered, and nobody notices

ttt




hold the ladder emu

im trying but it's wet out tonight.... ill put some gloves on.

few early looking value bets, i wont list them as proper yet until tomorrow as going to work shortly but Hadjuk Split, Getafe and Besiktas are selections. Im watching the odds of a few matches too.

Sampdoria are too short, should be 1.31 so could be worth a lay although i am only doing backs at the moment with £2 stakes to test it out so laying is to much hassle.

AEK are a bit of value but i am not backing anything above 10's as i start the testing, just doing the lower odds.

Current Total: -£1.18

Todays Bets

Odds posted are the odds I have bet at. Of the three I posted last night, two have changed odds a fair bit but i've posted the odds I got last night.

Back Dortmund - 2.04 (should be 1.93)
Back Hadjuk Split - 2.68 (should be 2.59 so more value now)
Back Besiktas - 2.7 (should be 2.57 so no value now)
Back Napoli - 2.66 (should be 2.51)
Back Getafe - 2.66 (should be 2.54 so more value now)
Back Leverkusen - 4.3 (should be 3.84)
Back Gent - 4 (should be 3.75)
Back Juventus - 6.4 (should be 5.27)
Back Under 2.5gls (City v Juventus) - 2.2 (should be 2.13)
Back PAOK - 2.16 (should be 2.07)
Back Over 2.5gls (sheriff v Dinamo Kiev) - 2.48 (should be 2.4)
Back Under 2.5gls (Villareal v Brugge) - 2.46 (should be 2.36)


That's the lot for tonight's matches.

Hello rod hull
Back Gent - 4 (should be 3.75) they were shorter then 3.75 this morning when i layed them. I cant see Gent winning tonight to be honest but good luck.

Well done mate, not the most confident about them winning but it's all about the price for this test. Laying at less than 3.75 is a solid shout too. Good luck. ( i hope i win tonight though [;)] )

tbh I almost left Gent tonight, I had a good think about it and was going to put a back in at around 4.2 but then I knew that if I didn't do it they would win so had to go for it.

I HAVE NOTICED THIS WEEK THAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LONG ODDS ON AT HOME, MOST GAMES HAVE UNDER 2.5 GOALS IN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE. The odds were generally odds agains for this to happen so i figuired value.

How many sets of stats do you base your findings on? League games, cup ames or all comps?

here's my opinion on the game Lille play in a high standard of football (in the french league) but not only this away from home can keep the ball very well infact they are the 3rd best at it in france with (52%) overall. Not only this but they also can create alot of chances away from home they have had the most shots this year at 57. as long as GERVINHO plays (there top scorer) i cant see Gent winning im not saying Lille are a great side just to strong for Gent. With me saying all this Gent will win now 3-0 lol

Rich W Joined: 03 Oct 07
Replies: 534 30 Sep 10 16:07 
I HAVE NOTICED THIS WEEK THAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LONG ODDS ON AT HOME, MOST GAMES HAVE UNDER 2.5 GOALS IN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE. The odds were generally odds agains for this to happen so i figuired value.

How many sets of stats do you base your findings on? League games, cup ames or all comps?

It uses algorithms after inputting info from spread betting sites. It uses the supremacy rating, total goals spread and from there (via my friends intelligence, not mine) works out what the true odds *should* be.

to be honest it gets most matches very very close, including the overs/unders markets.

some lower odds can represent value (imo) with a few ticks like spurs over 1.5 last night but with the outsiders like Juve tonight i would want a bigger gap (almost 1.2 higher tonight) for me to bet.

Basically the higher odds the more value i would want before backing it. If i have a solid opinion on the match then i will take a bit less value if i am happy with my opinion on the outcome.

I need to watch a bit more football as teams like lille i haven't seen much of for a while. I am usually a tennis man but follow the prem of course and spanish a fair bit but other european europa level teams i have not seen too much off so will just be going off price for a while.

stats or no stats , villareal will batter brugge ..defo overs imo

thats more likely yes but unders is a value price has to be worth a bet.

thanks Rod! Good Luck

-£5.10 from £2 stakes tonight. The three outsiders that were backed (all above 4's) all earned a draw so this testing could show up some other things to follow up on.

This could show that it gets value wrong on this spreadsheet and actually find a very good laying system during the following weeks.

Still weeks and weeks to post some picks up and see how they get on and see if any system can be found with in them. One of those outsiders could have won to make a profit so it's too early to see how I can use these selections properly.

hope you traded your gent bet mate ;)

no mate,i was out at football training. it's only £2 stakes to see how it gets on so not too worried about it. could have backed 1-1 in all three and been quids in!

If only it had told me that aswell.

im still all in (kind of :)) on oklahoma in the college football but they didnt start well.. still 0-0

"One of those outsiders could have won to make a profit"



An interesting thread, good luck with future results [:)]

convincing win for the oklahoma state lads.. 38-35 i think lol still they won :)

well done morrissey. had you twitching a bit then but came though.