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179/1 Pre-season bet!!! - Thank me next May!!! SERIOUS THREAD
179/1 Pre-season bet!!! - Thank me next May!!! SERIOUS THREAD
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Replies: 52
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this is a joke right?
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I think he's serious
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Well lets say - serious enough to invest £6 on him @ silly odds.
In previous years, yes, Theo has not been the player Wenger though he would be when he signed him from Southampton. But I've noticed 'signs' of improvement recently. And surely after being so dissapointed at not being picked for England in the World Cup I should imagine he will start 'all guns blazing' if Wenger shows faith in him. Like when I tipped Anelka (at high odds) saying he would come good there were doubters, but he did come good. Theo has the ability imo, he just needs to add a hungry, agressive touch to his game - rather like Anelka had to. Anyway I, like I'm sure many of you, have a mixture of larger sure-fire pre-season bets (my main one is Luton Town to win the Blue Square Prem @ 3.5 e/w). And some long shot high price ones - this is my long shot! [;)] |
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That Luton bet is very poor value in such a competitive division.
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So you're expecting him to score more than double this season compared to his last 3 seasons? Good luck.
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turtleshead, regarding the Luton bet, its not as bad as it looks, firstly I'm a Luton supporter (although have not just backed them patriotically!) so I know all the in's and out's of the club, and the price of 3.5 two months or so ago looked good. I have been proved right not to wait as the best price now on Luton is exactly 3.0 from just 2 or 3 bookies, with most others 2.75 or 2.88 ish. Also being over 3 means you get a fair cover by going each way. So if Luton, by some fluke, slip up and finish in a place position I get a big chunk of my 'to win' part back.
As for the 'win' chance, Luton have got together a very strong squad, adding to what was a very strong one the second half of last season, where Luton were scoring goals for fun. They have recruited Danny Crow (Cambridge) 19 last season, Dan Gleeson (Cambridge) , Andy Drury (Stevenage) and Adam Murray, the former Oxford captain. 3 is still value im humble)o and Luton's price probably wont go above this. Grimsby and Darlington have to get over their 'losing' mentality from division 2. Crawley are going mad recruiting players from everywhere (except Luton's!) and their players will take time to gel - maybe next season for them - if they dont make themselves bust! Imo Luton's main threat is York, so I have covered them at 12/1 tony - at 179/1 I will of course need some luck, ie Drogba and Rooney getting injured part the way though season, but if Theo can find himself then he could hit a run of form. And I wont lose much sleep if I lose my £6 ! [;)] |
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David Nggog is at 70's!! WHY?
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Like I said, you don't know how other sides have recruited, other than Crawley. Your comment "Grimsby and Darlington have to get over their 'losing' mentality from division 2" is just total guesswork - you have no idea whether or not this is correct. I'd never back that price in what is always a tough division in a million years. The fact that the price is now 3.0 does not mean that 3.5 was a good price, simply the fact that lots of people like lumping on a short price selection where there seem to be few alternatives. That approach is a short cut to the poor house. Is the fact that Man City are now 5/1 to win the Prem proof that the 7/1 a month or two ago was a good price? No, it just means that mugs and lemmings are jumping on a bandwagon with no concept of value.
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TheGoods, I would recon that David Nggog's price will go up further, some of the players near the bottom of a market can be a bit illiqid, ie the layers should be laying for alot more on him! Best way is to check with the bookies, you can get 100/1 on him so that shows that he's too low on here.
As with Theo, the best bookie price was also 100/1 so I was happy to take 180 on here! Welcome to Betfair by the way, I see you joined today! [;)] turtlehead, When Luton cam down to the Conference they found it hard to suddenly chalk up win after win, this isn't easy when you have been relegated and lost some confidence with losing so many (although in Luton's case it was also down to the minus 20 points they had). Rather than call something 'total guesswork' it is more a case of 'educational guessing'! - which afterall is what we all do to work out where to put our money! I'm sure even if Luton win the league at a canter some will still say their price was too low! We shall just have to agree to disagree then, and see what happens! |
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turtlec0ck give it a rest pal, u have no idea wot u r on about
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Ah, here comes the fantasist
 Got any more 1.3 "certs" which make you thousands win they win and only cost you a couple of hundred when they lose  Great stuff, monopoly money - have you bought some more recently to go alongside your imaginary bank  |
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biggest anti-climax since watching "Snatch"
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Glad i was at work and missed this no chance
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