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fggggggfg
09 Nov 09 21:33
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Date Joined: 14 Apr 09
| Topic/replies: 483 | Blogger: fggggggfg's blog
if so are you winning???
i've always thought if i pick more winners than losers you will be quids in (odds depending) but this is getting far to unpredictable to pick the winner, i was on any unquoted tonight :)

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Replies: 32
By:
The Betfairy
When: 09 Nov 09 21:34
Match Odds for pros, Overs for show.
By:
u want some
When: 09 Nov 09 21:35
I play the match odds and i do alright. Far from being a pro but i make a decent enough second income.
By:
delz
When: 09 Nov 09 21:36
Rarely touch them. Have to be very confident if so.
By:
fggggggfg
When: 09 Nov 09 21:37
i could predict results a few months back, but lately you've got no chance imo

unless you guess
By:
tobermory
When: 09 Nov 09 21:37
if it was predictable we might as well put the money in FOBTS
By:
fggggggfg
When: 09 Nov 09 21:39
followers of the form lately are getting stung quite a lot i think, maybe not tonight as much as liverpool are not exactly in form but battered them and drew, been a few like that in the last month
By:
ronnie rosenthal
When: 09 Nov 09 21:39
always go for value and you can profit
By:
fggggggfg
When: 09 Nov 09 21:40
Reading against leicester comes to mind, battered them lost 1-0
By:
u want some
When: 09 Nov 09 21:40
I actually backed Leicester DRAW NO BET in that game but i know what your saying mate.
By:
fggggggfg
When: 09 Nov 09 21:41
i like to follow the form and in most cases this team will be fav's, not saying you should back every fav but just lately teams dont play the same game twice in a row imo so very hard?
By:
jim smith
When: 09 Nov 09 21:42
issall abaart ve IMPLAY
By:
keliwah
When: 09 Nov 09 21:43

ronnie rosenthal 09 Nov 22:39
always go for value and you can profit


Good advice. :)

Care to expand, though? It's finding the value that's the tricky bit. How do you do it?
By:
The Betfairy
When: 09 Nov 09 21:44
Tarrot cards?
By:
fggggggfg
When: 09 Nov 09 21:45
everton lost 5-0, 0-2, west ham draw against arsenal 2-2 and win there first at home all season then what happens everton beat west ham at upton park, very hard thinking of not doing match betting until see some consistency
By:
The Betfairy
When: 09 Nov 09 21:46
Don't bet on it because it's predictable.
By:
fggggggfg
When: 09 Nov 09 21:46
just 1 of many in last few weeks^^^
By:
fggggggfg
When: 09 Nov 09 21:48
im just saying i used to bet on the winning team a lot more, due to the form teams turning up?
By:
jim smith
When: 09 Nov 09 21:49
were liverpool a form team?
By:
fggggggfg
When: 09 Nov 09 21:50
i said earlier not so much tonights match but they should of won so would of lost if played in play which i didnt :)
By:
keliwah
When: 09 Nov 09 21:51
People don't half talk a lot of rubbish on this forum. If anyone really thinks that the Prem matches coming up will bring more "unpredictable" outcomes, then you can make lots of money by laying the favourite teams and the favourite score lines. So why wait until it becomes more "predictable"?
By:
omg ref wtf!?!
When: 09 Nov 09 21:52
Match odds is the only market I play. It has been pretty tough this season compared to the last couple of years and I'm basically level pegging going from the start of the season (for comparision I had doubled my bank in the same period last year and ended the season with six times what I started).

I'm going to stick with it but my confidence has been affected a fair bit I think, my head was telling me to lay Liverpool tonight but I wimped out because of recent losses and was scared I was chasing.
By:
tobermory
When: 09 Nov 09 21:53
'Form' is a Myth

A team which keeps the same basic starting 11 can play well or badly at anytime . Overall they will play to the average performance level their abilty would indicate they are capable of .

Sometimes they will 'play above themselves' , other times they will perform well below par , wether they are 4 games unbeaten or have lost their last 4 gives no indication of wether they will play well or badly in the 5th match.
By:
keliwah
When: 09 Nov 09 21:56

tobermory 09 Nov 22:53
'Form' is a Myth

A team which keeps the same basic starting 11 can play well or badly at anytime . Overall they will play to the average performance level their abilty would indicate they are capable of .

Sometimes they will 'play above themselves' , other times they will perform well below par , wether they are 4 games unbeaten or have lost their last 4 gives no indication of wether they will play well or badly in the 5th match.


Erm, I understand your point, but how is is that we can gauge their "average performance level" and their "ability". Isn't it by their past form?
By:
fggggggfg
When: 09 Nov 09 21:56
would it be a guess then if i picked a team thats lost say 5 on the spin, would i just be hoping and praying they turn up a better team on the day?
By:
keliwah
When: 09 Nov 09 21:57
Basically, it becomes an argument about how far back we take the form we take into consideration.
By:
tobermory
When: 09 Nov 09 21:59
Yes keliwah.

But it is their 'form' over the last 30-50 games* which tells you how good they are.

I don't like the word Form as people who use it are ususally only thinking of the last few weeks, and as i said that is misleading as to abilty .I mean on that basis Fulham are better than Real Madrid.

*Obviously you adjust that to some ectent depending on how many players have left/joined the club , if the changes have made a difference to the abilty of the team.
By:
omg ref wtf!?!
When: 09 Nov 09 22:00
keliwah 09 Nov 22:56

Erm, I understand your point, but how is is that we can gauge their "average performance level" and their "ability". Isn't it by their past form?

Their past form as in their performances, too many people look at results alone. Chelsea beat United at the weekend but if you use let that result effect your betting selection regarding either of those teams then you are a fool as it was pure luck and poor officiating that decided the result.
By:
thankyoumugs
When: 09 Nov 09 22:03
knowing form on teams in europe and english leagues is vital, and its what gives you an edge, is your knowledge of current form, form is fleeting thing that comes and goes, thats why football is funny old game because games dont always go to form. exmaple ac milan bang in form now won on weekend 2-1 away, 2nd in league table in italy, bordeaux top of league in france, bordeaux sketchy form at moment.................. lost on weekend 2-0 away, bordeaux 13th in form table.
By:
Rocket to the FACE
When: 09 Nov 09 22:04
Hardly ever get involved in this market unless it's before kick off or one team is up by 2 goals +

Any other time I avoid and look at other markets.
By:
keliwah
When: 09 Nov 09 22:05
Yes, so true, which is why watching the matches is so important. Tonight's match result is a complete freak result given the run of play. Just because it finished a draw, it doesn't mean that the draw at 4.9 was good value.
By:
tobermory
When: 09 Nov 09 22:06
omg ref wtf!?!

I agree that some teams may be in a false position as they scrape several wins in games they played poorly in, and by watching them you can see the evidence for this.

eg West Ham finished 7th or 8th last year , but i thought they were dreadful most times i watched them , and only rated them slightly better than the sides who went down , so chose them for relegation this season.
By:
u want some
When: 09 Nov 09 22:08
95% of my bets are done before the game and as tobermory said we can read the form book and do the all the research we like but it doesn't mean were going to win. You can still make it pay on match betting though. It comes down to how good your judgement is and luck.
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