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vilify2
07 Nov 09 16:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 175 | Blogger: vilify2's blog
Atl Madrid v Real Madrid

Total corners this season (Atl at home / Real away)
14(11/3), 18(6/12), 14(7/7), 9(7/2) = 13.7
10(3/7), 20(14/6), 9(4/5), 10(4/6) = 12.2

Corner wins (Atl at home / Real away):
11, 6, 7, 7 = 7.75
7, 6, 5, 6 = 6
Total average: 13.75

Last seasons games ended in:
08/09: 14(10/4)
07/08: 22(7/8)

Lay of under 10:

Atl 1/4
Atl v Santander 9(7/2): Santander have a dire away corner record and average total corners = 8.8. They win on average 2.8 corners per away game (1, 7, 4, 0, 2) and 3/5 games have ended under 10. I would not blame Atl for this result of under 10 because they contributed 7 corners which is healthy.

Real 1/4
Villarreal v Real Madrid 9(4/5): Villa have a poor corner record, 4/5 home games have ended under 10 corners. Real Madrid got 5 corners and to be fair the game ended just 1 corner short anyway. I would not blame Madrid for this result based on Villarreals records.

So to conclude: Both teams have only had 1 result under 10, and these have both been against teams with poor home/away records as explained; you cant blame Atl / Real for these results. Atl win 7.75 corners per game and Real win 6 corners per away game which is a total average of 13.75; a healthy record. And for minor consideration the last two times these teams have played the result has ended 14 and 22 corners.

I do not see why 9 or less is FAVOURITE (at the time of writing).

A lay of 9 or less DOUBLE stakes 2.95
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Report simo7pne November 7, 2009 6:07 PM GMT
good work, was tempted to back overs myself
Report Ronaldinho's dentist November 7, 2009 6:26 PM GMT
good stuff villi, gone with you on this
Report vilify2 November 7, 2009 6:58 PM GMT
Shocked this is not 3.4 - 3.6 as I expected.
Report Tarjeta Amarilla November 7, 2009 7:05 PM GMT
:0
Report swanny1982 November 7, 2009 7:10 PM GMT
Good write up.
Report vilify2 November 7, 2009 7:43 PM GMT
On the drift! :p
Report vilify2 November 7, 2009 9:19 PM GMT
BET WON

THANK YOU, COME AGAIN!
Report swanny1982 November 7, 2009 9:19 PM GMT
Landed!
Report Ronaldinho's dentist November 7, 2009 9:23 PM GMT
WD vilify. were do yo get the info from if I might ask?
Report vilify2 November 7, 2009 9:33 PM GMT
SimpleSoccerStats.com

Which get their stats from http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php

Which get their stats from:
International Soccer Server - http://sunsite.tut.fi/rec/riku/soccer.html
European Football - http://www.eurofootball.be/
RSSSF Archive - http://www.rsssf.com/
Current results (full time, half time)
TBWSport - http://www.tbwsport.com
Livescore- http://www.livescore.com
Match statistics
Sportinglife, ESPN Soccer, Bundesliga.de, Gazzetta.it and Football.fr

But basically most of it is manual work. You just have to backtrack on corners and see if there are any reasons why X team had a result under 10 or over 12 (depending on if you are going to lay 9 or less or 13 or more) and make an assumption.
Report ur00001 November 7, 2009 10:09 PM GMT
well done vilify2 excellent analysis pre game. Looked like a losing bet in the beginning but the stats did good in the end. Well Done
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