A cracking back up card takes place at Newbury tomorrow, and the race that takes my eye for a bet is the Gerry Feilden, a 2 mile handicap hurdle.
. Age 4-6
. 11st Max
. Max 130 OR
. 0-1 Runs season
. 4-10 Runs hurdle
. 10+ runs total
. Not won this season
. Won 1-2 hurdles
. Not won a handicap hurdle
. 3+ wins total
. Best RPR over 2 miles
. 119-128 Best RPR over 2 miles
. Run very well at course if run there before
12 - Advisor, Praxitiles
11 - Dr Livingstone, Stormy Weather
10 - Kauto Relko, Rebel Dancer, Forty Thirty, The Betchworth Kid
Quite a tricky race to weigh up but there seems to be a bit of value around. Quickly I'll just list the reasons why I've disregarded a few of them;
Advisor - Nicholls says he won't be wound up.
Dr Livingstone, Kauto Relko and Forty Thirty - All don't look good enough.
Stormy Weather - Looks like he needs further and also doesn't look overally well handicapped.
Dotted up 2 of his last 3 starts and tongue tie seems to have made the world of difference and if he's still on the upward curve he'll take the world of beating. Bred out of the blue, being a full brother to Islington and Greek Dance, he was ultra impressive at Aintree with good form tieing in with Heron bay who's a solid yardstick. Also he's one of the few in the field who will be up there, and so might get the run of things in front and be able to outsprint them being flat bred. The one worry is the ground, which would stop me getting too involved but hopefully it won't be too soft.
The Betchworth Kid
Seems reasonably rated off 138 and his chance is there for everyone to see. Has form linking in with Kind Edmund, Quantitiveeasing and Tito Bustillo, which makes his mark off 138 look workable as does his flat form. His last run over jumps can be forgiven as he lost shoes and was struck into. He also had a good winter on the flat culminating in a 2nd in the November Handicap, and with the King string in better form than this time last year he should go close.
Seems very progressive since joining the Ian Williams yard. Would have run close to Nearby on his last run but for falling at the last, and that form has been franked no end since. From his action/ flat form there's no reason why he shouldn't handle slightly softer ground. The one worry is he's up 12lbs (combination of hike up in weights/out of handicap), but at 14/1 it's worth risking he can overcome it.
Rebel Dancer - 1pt E/W 14/1 Paddy Power (BOG)
The Betchworth Kid - 2pt Win 11/2 William Hill (BOG)
Praxitilies - 1pt Win SP