Exchange Games
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Are the bets made at Betfair Exchange games matched by other bettors or are you playing directly against the house? I am asking this because I always got my bets of any size matched immediately so it felt like it wasn't matched by other players. I lost 7000€ playing Turbo Exchange Blackjack and it felt like the odds were deliberately stacked against me especially when I increased my bet size.
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Replies: 14
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Now there's a familiar story.
BF put money in the market so BF will be matching your bets |
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If BF matches my bets it is no different that playing casino games against the house and they can manipulate the results in their favor. At least with punting against other players you can assume/hope you get fair outcomes. I guess I'll have to do a detailed analysis of my results and compare the expected odds to the results dealt.
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The biggest problem with exchange BJ is it employs an infinite deck where absolutely anything can and does happen.
I won't play it for this reason. |
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Statistically there is negligible difference between infinite deck and 8 decks so I don't think this is the reason for concern. Of course many decks increases the chances of those five-card charlies which one of the players always had when I was betting for the dealer to win/push.
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The biggest problem with ANY exchange games is that they are fixed, and ,hopefully will be fully exsposed for what they are.
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I've analysed some of my losses and I'm afraid the odds are highly unlikely to put it mildly. A 12\1 closely followed by a 10\1 followed by an 8\1 2 games later, followed by a 7\1 3 games later, and then a 13\1 the next game and so on until your cleaned out.
And it happens time after time after time. |
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I'll try again....but I'm sure this is a familiar story too many.
I've analysed some of my losses and I'm afraid the odds are highly unlikely to put it mildly. A 12to1 loser closely followed by a 10to1 followed by an 8to1 2 games later, followed by a 7to1 3 games later, and then a 13to1 the next game and so on until your cleaned out. And it happens time after time after time. |
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That's what I'm saying Jazza, anything can and does happen, due to the infinite deck. Betfair should redesign this game, a single deck version would be nice!! Fewer decks would give no advantage to card counters as the odds would be recalculated to compensate for cards drawn.
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Grunweld: I don't understand your statement that "everything can and does happen, due to the infinite deck". Infinite deck is not the issue here. The only thing that Infinite deck means is that regardless of the cards drawn already there is always a 4/13 chance to draw a Ten as next card, 1/13 chance to draw an Ace as next card etc. With infinite decks the game still follows the normal laws of probabilities so you can't say that "everything can and does happen".
I haven't yet analyzed my results but my playing strategy was simple: I always backed the dealer to win/push with 3.74x odds before any cards were drawn. I will check whether my win ratio was anywhere near the expected 1 in 3.74 ratio. |
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It will be just below what you should expect...
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Betfair win whatever happens because they take commission on every bet placed. Don't you see?
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No they don't ????
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if this game is **** it should be easy to uncover this by playing two accounts side by side. if bf tryes manipulate results, you should see different cards played at the same moment on different accounts, am i right?
i suppose they no need to manipulate those games, just odds are a bit short, on events like 50\50 chance odds here are like 1.98, thats all you need to loose those games long term |
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50% chance
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