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I have been testing an idea I had in poker, I have used time machine and played it through two months of games, and every day it either wins or makes a small loss never anything substantial, but week on week its shows a modest profit, nothing huge but a nice amount for me. So my question is at what point can one consider a system valid and successful.
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When the money is safely back in your bank account and not a moment before imo
Up to now I have only used test funds, I dont want to devote my hard earned stirling until I am sure it will make a profit, no matter how large or small that profit is.
Basically you can't beat the odds. You may navigate around them for a while, but eventually they will catch up and defeat you.
No system is valid or successful. You can create systems that will pay you a profit 99% of the time but there will be a disastrous loss the other 1%, or you can create systems that will give you a minor loss 99.999999% of the time with a wonder win 0.00000001% of the time but you can never beat the odds, you are making under-valued bets and no staking system will increase your expectation.
If you post your system here it will be possible to examine the potential outcomes after 100 or 1000 'trials' (deals if you prefer) and examine if it's a gamble you want to take. The expectation will be a loss but depending on the system it may be something you're willing to gamble on.
People confuse poor value for 'not worth doing'. This is actually often not true due to the relative value of money. If expected winnings was all that mattered no one would ever 'deal' or deal or no deal, but they so often do. (For example if I gave you a 0.001 chance at winning 500 quid from a quid bet you'd probably take it at the end of a night with a spare quid in your pocket, this is because even though it's a poor value bet, 500 quid on a night out is far more useful to you than having that quid at the end of 500 nights out. (or even 1000 nights out). So even though you're in theory turning that quid into 50p, you'll take the bet because the night it comes in is worth so much more to you.)
Basically, post your system and you can draw up the expected outcomes after 100 or 1000 spins (the more spins the worse your expectation will be worse by the way, but variance of outcomes will be reduced) and go from there.
There is no 'holy grail' for exchange game or arcade/casino betting, each system doesn't actually make a difference except change which odds you are chasing and change the distribution around the expected outcome.
Note that even if this is a system you're happy with the outcomes, just ride it out the once and then self excluse from x-games/arcade/casino. The worst thing you can do is take a system you were happy with and keep riding it, because the more you do the more you're reducing your variance and the more likely you will end up at a loss.
Put it this way, after 100,000 roulette bets, few systems could give a good chance of a profit. (Few that you could afford to bet on anyway).
On the other hand if you stick the bank on red for one spin you've got a 48% chance of making a profit.
If you post your system here it will be possible to examine the potential outcomes after 100 or 1000 'trials' (deals if you prefer) and examine if it's a gamble you want to take. The expectation will be a loss but depending on the system it may be something you're willing to gamble on.
People confuse poor value for 'not worth doing'. This is actually often not true due to the relative value of money. If expected winnings was all that mattered no one would ever 'deal' or deal or no deal, but they so often do. (For example if I gave you a 0.001 chance at winning 500 quid from a quid bet you'd probably take it at the end of a night with a spare quid in your pocket, this is because even though it's a poor value bet, 500 quid on a night out is far more useful to you than having that quid at the end of 500 nights out. (or even 1000 nights out). So even though you're in theory turning that quid into 50p, you'll take the bet because the night it comes in is worth so much more to you.)
Basically, post your system and you can draw up the expected outcomes after 100 or 1000 spins (the more spins the worse your expectation will be worse by the way, but variance of outcomes will be reduced) and go from there.
There is no 'holy grail' for exchange game or arcade/casino betting, each system doesn't actually make a difference except change which odds you are chasing and change the distribution around the expected outcome.
Note that even if this is a system you're happy with the outcomes, just ride it out the once and then self excluse from x-games/arcade/casino. The worst thing you can do is take a system you were happy with and keep riding it, because the more you do the more you're reducing your variance and the more likely you will end up at a loss.
Put it this way, after 100,000 roulette bets, few systems could give a good chance of a profit. (Few that you could afford to bet on anyway).
On the other hand if you stick the bank on red for one spin you've got a 48% chance of making a profit.
I understand that the card values in the game are randomly generated, but I have identified a trend in the game and up to now have successfully taken advantage of that without serious losses,(in test mode at least) But I am very reluctant to let it run with real funds until I can be sure this success will continue. If you are right about the odd's catching up and eventually defeating me then it seem like a pointless task, and only a short lived victory.
The honest answer is to simply say you've been lucky so far.
Take for example card derby where a horse needs at least the top 1 and 1 other from their suit to win, but otherwise are in-front. It's highly unlikely they'll win this round, so you could lay that horse with the view to trading it back for a profit. But the profit you get laying back will never be enough to offset the times the cards come in.
Consider it a 7-1 event priced at 8-1 (From a laying perspective).
If you did this 20 times you'd end up with:
chance of a
Take for example card derby where a horse needs at least the top 1 and 1 other from their suit to win, but otherwise are in-front. It's highly unlikely they'll win this round, so you could lay that horse with the view to trading it back for a profit. But the profit you get laying back will never be enough to offset the times the cards come in.
Consider it a 7-1 event priced at 8-1 (From a laying perspective).
If you did this 20 times you'd end up with:
chance of a
You are free to think whatever you choose to, I was simply asking a question. If i am indeed deluded, that is my problem and not one you should involve yourself in. The whole idea of the forum is to share thoughts, ideas and ask questions, Not to post deflamatory comments. (you can find the definition for that rather large word in the dictionary)
the kind of response i would expect,little boy hiding behind his mums laptop.......
i had couple occasions, when system run good for 2-3 days(1200-1500 picks, no chasing), then comes THE DAY, when everything goes titsup and you loose all profit and more in a half day
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