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31 Dec 09
15:57
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12 Mar 07
with a thread that has a basic theme of intelligence and honesty.
Let us at least try to be aware and fully dismissive of all those who come on here with claims of success that are either, in a best sense, pure pipedreams or, at worst, are a precursor to a scam.
The bottom line of trying to design a successful Xgames betting strategy is as follows.
A very successful system might achieve a return of 360 % pa, that is a net profit of 1 unit per day on a required capital base of 100 units.
A wildly successful system might just improve this target return on investment to ( say) around 700 % pa to 1,000 % pa, that is 2-3 units per day per 100 units of capital.
Anything else greater than that is just not feasible or believable, if claimed.
Any successful system is highly unlikely to be betting on more than 5-10 % of games played, inorder to have any chance of beating the commission trap.
Any system must have been successfully tested out over at least 1 years worth of back results, say 200,000 games.
Do not expect any system to work immediately within hours or even days of going live. If it has a tested capital requirement of x units then fully expect to be tested out on that requirement within a reasonably short period of going live.
Unlike some on here, do not be disappointed if your early live results seem to show an unreasonable and unfair lack of success. Do not quickly claim "**, but have faith and patience in your test results and let in run live witout adjustment for a reasonable period, say at least a couple of days if not weeks.
Any and all successful systems will be entirely flat betting. Any hint of chasing, no matter how small the amount, will inevitably end in disaster.
You will not get wildly rich playing X games, but you might get seriously comfortable.
If you can design a system to earn 1 unit on 100 units of capital, then you could reasonably expect to be able to scale it up to earn 500 pounds per day using 50,000 pounds of capital, that is playing with flat bets of 500 pounds, without affecting the lquidity or testing BF's commitment to keeping the games running. After all they will earn a lot more than that per day from all the other losing punters.
Do not reasonably expect ever to be able to push it higher than that earnings-wise, at least on a consistent winning basis. ONe off wins are an entirely different matter and will not last anyway.
So any and all who come on here with systems that claim to win 100+ points per day are either liars, dreamers or scammers,and/ or are using astronomical aounts of capital to do it ( and are most likely chasing.) Ignore or ridicule them when they come on here.
Best of luck and be honest with both yourselves and others on here.
Let us at least try to be aware and fully dismissive of all those who come on here with claims of success that are either, in a best sense, pure pipedreams or, at worst, are a precursor to a scam.
The bottom line of trying to design a successful Xgames betting strategy is as follows.
A very successful system might achieve a return of 360 % pa, that is a net profit of 1 unit per day on a required capital base of 100 units.
A wildly successful system might just improve this target return on investment to ( say) around 700 % pa to 1,000 % pa, that is 2-3 units per day per 100 units of capital.
Anything else greater than that is just not feasible or believable, if claimed.
Any successful system is highly unlikely to be betting on more than 5-10 % of games played, inorder to have any chance of beating the commission trap.
Any system must have been successfully tested out over at least 1 years worth of back results, say 200,000 games.
Do not expect any system to work immediately within hours or even days of going live. If it has a tested capital requirement of x units then fully expect to be tested out on that requirement within a reasonably short period of going live.
Unlike some on here, do not be disappointed if your early live results seem to show an unreasonable and unfair lack of success. Do not quickly claim "**, but have faith and patience in your test results and let in run live witout adjustment for a reasonable period, say at least a couple of days if not weeks.
Any and all successful systems will be entirely flat betting. Any hint of chasing, no matter how small the amount, will inevitably end in disaster.
You will not get wildly rich playing X games, but you might get seriously comfortable.
If you can design a system to earn 1 unit on 100 units of capital, then you could reasonably expect to be able to scale it up to earn 500 pounds per day using 50,000 pounds of capital, that is playing with flat bets of 500 pounds, without affecting the lquidity or testing BF's commitment to keeping the games running. After all they will earn a lot more than that per day from all the other losing punters.
Do not reasonably expect ever to be able to push it higher than that earnings-wise, at least on a consistent winning basis. ONe off wins are an entirely different matter and will not last anyway.
So any and all who come on here with systems that claim to win 100+ points per day are either liars, dreamers or scammers,and/ or are using astronomical aounts of capital to do it ( and are most likely chasing.) Ignore or ridicule them when they come on here.
Best of luck and be honest with both yourselves and others on here.
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Wow! and he calls me opinionated. Unbelievable.
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Ok. Here's my advice. Don't waste the next year trying to beat the games. You will lose money and a year of your life.
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Typical response Jazza.
I suggest you should perhaps not even get out of bed next year. Not really worth it for you is it ? |
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I won't be.....Cheers.
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So many contradictions in one Post.
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You will not get wildly rich playing X games, but you might get seriously comfortable.
If you can design a system to earn 1 unit on 100 units of capital, then you could reasonably expect to be able to scale it up to earn 500 pounds per day using 50,000 pounds of capital So if you can get 500 per day why not scale up more and get rich? As if 500 per day isn't getting rich...15K a month? |
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Btw I think that you most certainly should heed your own sage advice.
But not all of us have been so blindsided by the "** obsession, as to be totally inept at our system desing efforts. I would never have the temerity to say, as you do, that just because I can't do something that nobody can. But of course I'm not as intelligent as you. Just to try to progress matters a little bit more constructively though, perhaps you would care to elucidate further as to what you actually specifically disgree with in my opening post. Then perhaps we and others might be able to debate it usefully. Otherwise you know what. Happy New Year. |
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Any reply to my first point above?
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15 K is seriously comfortable, not seriously rich.
As I say in my post you could theoretically scale up more but not practically. You have to consider who is providing the money you might be winning. It is not a ottomless pit I would presume. |
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[b]Do not quickly claim "**/b]
I didn't. I played for about 5 years before coming to this opinion, to which I am entitled, whether you agree or not. |
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15K a month is comfortable? What does the PM earn?
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I would never have the temerity to say, as you do, that just because I can't do something that nobody can.
You said exactly that in your post. |
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Btw in case you haven't noticed in my opening post, all I am trying to do is establish some reasonable design targets.
And in doing so, try to warn others as to when totally unreasonable claims of success are being made on here. In other words I am trying to help people in achieving success, if such is at all possible on Xgames. I'm not actually claiming or saying that it is or is not possible. I cannot say how smart or dumb others are. |
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Anything else greater than that is just not feasible or believable, if claimed.
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Any successful system is highly unlikely to be betting on more than 5-10 % of games played, inorder to have any chance of beating the commission trap.
What? |
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I repeat Jazza, please be specific as to where you disagree with me in my opening post.
Forget about the level of money which is rich or not, focus on the real matters at hand. Potential ROI for example. Beating commission etc. |
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Our replies crossed.
In answer, you have to select more winners than losers to a reasonable degree of variance from the norm to win overall. You agree ? The more games you play the more commission will eat into your winnings, and the higher this variance will need to be. Less is best in these games. |
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I would never have the temerity to say, as you do, that just because I can't do something that nobody can.
You said exactly that in your post. AGAIN |
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So any and all who come on here with systems that claim to win 100+ points per day are either liars, dreamers or scammers
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If you have a winning system earning 15K a month then commission is peanuts
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Anyway.....out on the razz......Happy new year to you all and hope you have more luck? than me. Including you FAFH......we have differing opinions but that's ok. Nothing wrong with that.
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Also Jazza in reply your your entitled opinion on the ** subject.
I regularly run systems in live mode for weeks and even months where the live results fairly parallel with my paper test results. The fact that the systems might or might not then fail in the end is the result of them not being good enough, not the result of any targeted "**" by BF. What then am I doing that you're not doing apparently ? |
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So, this
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If you have to ask.
As they say " sarcasm is the lowest form ---- " Interesting though how specifically constructive the replies have been to date. Sure is hard to debate with you chappies. I'm open to disagreement, but I have to know what you're actually disagreeing with in the first place. Is it the ROI target assumptions for example ? Is it the negative impact that large trading volumes (in one direction at least) has on commission outtake?. Perhaps there could be a greening up approach that negates this ?. If so, let's hear about it and consider its merits ?. |
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I disagree with
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Well it's sure hard to debate that generalised answer.
I agree however that you are not likely to learn on here exactly how to win at the games, if it is possible. All you can hope to learn is perhaps how not to win. Currently I see this forum as being basically divided into 5 groupings Sad and disappointed - those who are blaming their failure on everybody but themselves. Sad and deluded - those who are believing they can achieve unreasonably profitable betting success. Sad and twisted - those who are here to scam people out of their hard earned Sad and hopeful - those who have not yet achieved success but are ploughing ahead in a constructive, realistic manner. Happy and successful - a mysterious group of people who apparently have cracked it for no obvious explainable reason. I'll let you all decide for yourselves where you think you fit in. All I'm trying to do in my opening post is to elicit some specific responses which I can then debate intelligently. Nothing has yet seemed to surface unfortunately. For example, to set the ball rolling, does anybody seriously believe that there are sustainable, consistent winning strategies out there that can generate returns on capital in excess of 1000 % pa and are scaleable into levels to produce serious levels of income, without affecting the viabllity of the games themselves ( note I am not talking about market making systems here ) ? If there are, then I'm sure your local wildly successful hedge manager would love to hear about them. . |
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FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: Let us at least try to be aware and fully dismissive of all those who come on here with claims of success that are either, in a best sense, pure pipedreams or, at worst, are a precursor to a scam.
I don't agree with you. OK, some might be dreamers or scammers. But some others might be truly successful. A suggestion: Everyone claiming to be successful here should post a list with results of his/her betting strategy (not the details of your strategy, only the results). This list should contain at least a few hundred bets including Ref.No., game ID, time, odds and stake (games betting history, download to spreadsheet, then copy to clipboard). FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: Let us at least try to be aware and fully dismissive of all those who come on here with claims of success ... FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: A very successful system might achieve a return of 360 % pa, that is a net profit of 1 unit per day on a required capital base of 100 units. According to what you have written above, you don't even believe, that it's possible to win here long term... and probably you have never created a winning system!? And if you have never created a winning system, how can you know this? FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: Anything else greater than that is just not feasible or believable, if claimed. FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: Any successful system is highly unlikely to be betting on more than 5-10 % of games played, inorder to have any chance of beating the commission trap. see above! FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: Any system must have been successfully tested out over at least 1 years worth of back results, say 200,000 games. Agree! Best thing you can do here is to test your strategy against all available game statistics data. You will have to create some kind of backtesting tool (I created my using MS Access and VBA, Excel could be of help too). FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: Do not expect any system to work immediately within hours or even days of going live. If it has a tested capital requirement of x units then fully expect to be tested out on that requirement within a reasonably short period of going live. Agree! FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: Unlike some on here, do not be disappointed if your early live results seem to show an unreasonable and unfair lack of success. Do not quickly claim "**, but have faith and patience in your test results and let in run live witout adjustment for a reasonable period, say at least a couple of days if not weeks. Good point, agree! FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: You will not get wildly rich playing X games, but you might get seriously comfortable. It depends on what you define as rich. Making 5 - 10,000 GBP every month is considered rich by some people, some others might consider this as comfortable at best. FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: So any and all who come on here with systems that claim to win 100+ points per day are either liars, dreamers or scammers,and/ or are using astronomical aounts of capital to do it ( and are most likely chasing.) Ignore or ridicule them when they come on here. Strongly disagree! How could you know this? |
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NZ Bot
First of all happy New Year. Tks. for your considered reply. I am dismissive of all systems that chase and thus I am only really questioning the claims of people making over 100 points a day on flat betting systems. The variance from the norm to achieve that in the space of 650 games or so would need to be so huge that it is just not credible. Note I am not saying people can't make 100 pounds or Euros a day, as you could at least conceivably if your unit bet size and back up capital are large enough. I'm just saying you cannot make 100 points per day flat betting. |
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Interesting points, Frog. What I, and I think most others on this forum dont appreciate is that you dont at any point express any of it as an opinion of yours but rather as some almighty, undisputable fact. Your OPINION on the games is logical and indicitive of your experiences thus far with the games but I dont agree that any system with any merit has to pass your criteria to cut the mustard. If you are that sure that a winning system has to play a certain (limited) amount of games or only aim realistically for a certain ROI then fine, make that your system criteria. It is a different approach to mine and something I cant and certainly wont dismiss. Thanks for sharing your thoughts but my opinion is that there are far too many variables and approaches to take with xgames to be able to draw up a little checklist to work to. Notice I dont disagree with what you say only the implication that anything different to your advice will fail. Happy new year, FAFH.
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That last statement, Frog, for what its worth, was a very good point, only in my opinion, of course, lol.
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FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote: I am dismissive of all systems that chase and thus I am only really questioning the claims of people making over 100 points a day on flat betting systems.
Agree on this! Chasing (Martingale) works only in theory, in practice it's the safest path to bankruptcy. Since you are betting here against randomness AND sub-value odds, you will need to implement some sort of less or more intelligent staking system WITHOUT progression. It has to be kind of Kelly staking system, this is at least what I'm doing. P.S.: Happy new year to all X-Gamers! |
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Slax
I agree it is not indisputable fact that I am writing However I do try to support my views with reasonably logical mathematical reasons. I am willing to accept that there are other approaches to playing the games. All I ask is that people who propose these other approaches back them up with some sort of mathematical logic. Sorry to have sounded so arrogant and inflexible to other opinions. I'm not all like that in reality and I am perfectly willing to listen and learn from others. But these other opinions must have some sort of logical mathematical base. Not too much to ask is it ? |
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Also another point which I originally failed to make about testing out a system on a large data bank, at least 200,000 games I mentioned.
If a system cuts the mustard ( as Slax says above), you should be able to cut and paste this data into a myriad of random combinations and the system should always pretty much perform the same. That is you are then effectively testing the system out over millions of games. If it works after all that then you are probably pretty much home and hosed. |
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Never a truer word spoken, Frog. That has to be the holy grail for all of us, to have any sort of system that can, in whatever way it operates, be subjected to a huge amount of games and not just be lucky and survive but deal with whatever it has thrown at it. It's an old saying but very true, 'If there is a chance of something happening, no matter how uncommon, it will happen at some point'. If that point equals a wiped out bankroll.....
I never have a problem finding a system to make money, it's trying to ensure that said system doesnt fall to pieces if it loses x number of games in a row or has x losses during a certain period. |
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NZ Bot
Note that stakng systems such as Kelly do not in themselves represent a betting strategy. They can in some cases improve the results of an underlying successful system that'all. Slaxon Yes that's right. A long term winning system has to be totally independent of what types of sequences are thrown at it. That is basically why any system that revolves around analysing what has already happened will never truly work forever. If not analysing the past, how about thinking outside the bax and try the converse of analysing various forward permutations before they actually happen or don't happen ? Would that be a viable technique ? |
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FAFH.
Just when I was going to go to bed you've got me thinking about forward trends.....What do you think about capped staking plans? Any advantage or just as ineffective longterm as an ordainary, to the death staking plan? For example, upon a loss, bet 2,4,8,16 and then accept 30 loss and reset to 2 instead of doubling ad infinitum. Interested in your opinion? I am going to bed now, though. Going to have a dream (hopefully) about a hairy frog that tells me how to predict forward trends....or the one with Kelly Brook and the case of redbull and viagra. Either would be better than the falling one I usually have...... |
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Capped staking plans are a mathematical no-no I'm afraid to say.
The capped losing sequences will eventually overtake the winning ones always Pleasant dreams. Not involving toads I hope.. |
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alas, no toads last night. Unfortunaley, kelly must have been busy also so another night of desperate falling. Damn insecurities. What sort of odds would be best to study when looking for mean diversion etc, Frog? Is it simply a matter of looking at a selections implied chance vs number of wins vs number of games wins/losses has/hasnt occured? I mean, is it easier to spot a higher odds selection that is noticeably up or down or is it just the same with an evens chance?
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Mean reversion doesn't work basically because reversion if and when it occurs doesn't necessarily happen quickly. This fact means that the commission and bad value odds destroy any profit potential long term.
The best and simplest way to understand this is to use the basic analogy that if you ( say) deliberately design a system that always loses eventually , then doing the opposite all the time will not result in you making a orofit. This the reverion philosophy in its simplest and most basic form. |