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newmugpunter
08 Nov 09 19:35
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Date Joined: 29 Jun 09
| Topic/replies: 302 | Blogger: newmugpunter's blog
everytime u raise the stakes and get**y with holdem, you lose !!!
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Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 8, 2009 8:36 PM GMT
Get**y in any type of betting and you will start to lose.
In answer to your question, no it's not coincidence.
You are obviously raising your stakes after you have had a few small stake winning bets on the trot and so statistically you are probably due for a loss.
Bleedin obvious to most of us I think.
Why don't you just for fun do the opposite ?.
That is lower your stakes after you have had a couple of higher stakes wins.
You'll find that you'll probably lose. Coincidence ?
Report newmugpunter November 8, 2009 8:48 PM GMT
thats the question and important word , coincidence, if you bet on average say 100-150 per throw then all of a sudden you say put £500+ on one game , its seems guaranteed to lose. I have literally never had a big winner so I dont do them now
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 8, 2009 9:06 PM GMT
May I ask why you would decide to up your stakes by 300% or so in the space of one game or so ?
That's always asking for trouble and is doomed for failure.
No betting strategy like that could ever work in any area of betting, unless you have some sort of inside info. on some sports event for example.
But that's an entirely different matter.
I think your problem is your betting style. Not really suited to Xgames imo.
Report newmugpunter November 8, 2009 11:02 PM GMT
will chat tomorrow , perhaps your advice will help me !!!
Report Jazza November 9, 2009 5:50 PM GMT
Flat bet level stakes. If a system is worth anything it should work without having to raise stakes.
Report Flutter_kid November 9, 2009 7:25 PM GMT
Jazza - i have a confession - I disagree!
Report Flutter_kid November 9, 2009 7:35 PM GMT
Ordinarily I think your opinions on this forum are pretty sound, and you speak a lot of sense - but I think with your flat betting idea you're off a bit.

It's an old idea, that if it doesn't work with flat betting, a staking system is only going to make things worse - however - I really think that this doesn't apply to the games.

With your sports betting, yeah, I totally agree. If you're great at the horses for example, your specialist knowledge means that you're spotting something that the masses haven't, and therefore something that is likely to you (with your brilliant knowledge) will be available at 'good' odds.
Or if you want to sit and study the form of referees and go and sit outside a ground at get them into a road rage incident before a game, then bet on there being a sending off - these are both examples of when you've got a discernible edge over the other punters.

With Exchange-Games it is my opinion that you can't have an edge in the same way. However, you do have the benefit of hundreds of possible outcomes and situations and opportunities.

I guess point being that I think a good staking system can cover for unpredictable results, and low value odds...

These are my thoughts - whadaya reckon?
Report Grunweld November 9, 2009 7:39 PM GMT
Negative progressions will never make a strategy that loses flat betting into a winning one.

Positive progressions may turn a break even strategy into a winning one, but since x-games can never break even due to undervalue odds and commission, they probably won't work here either.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 9, 2009 7:50 PM GMT
Grunweld is basically right.
A good staking system could improve an edge, but it wil not create one by itself.
You have to start first to design a system that wins slightly or breaks even on a flat bet basis, and then go on from there with any creative staking system.
As Grunweld says, is that at all possible on Xgames ?
Report Flutter_kid November 9, 2009 7:52 PM GMT
Hmmm, concisely put Grunny, and I agree with you.
Report Jazza November 9, 2009 10:32 PM GMT
Bye all means try it, but it's just too dangerous and you will eventually be hit. If you can win enough to cover the hit then maybe, but you have to have massive gonads to stay the distance and nerves of steel. NOT for me.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 10, 2009 12:34 AM GMT
Massive gonads and nerves of steel.
Sounds like we need superman.
Report JUGADOR MEJOR November 10, 2009 5:31 PM GMT
Or Dangerfrog!!!
Report JUGADOR MEJOR November 10, 2009 5:32 PM GMT
Mightyjazza!!
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 10, 2009 6:14 PM GMT
Simon Cowell ?
Report JUGADOR MEJOR November 10, 2009 11:34 PM GMT
Titter
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