davio

Three bets for us this weekend, so let’s get cracking.

First up we have the +2.5 bet:

19/01/2013 - 5pm    Real Sociedad vs FC Barcelona +4 3-2
19/01/2013 - 5pm    Besiktas v Istanbul +7.5 2-2
20/01/2013 - 1pm    Bastia v Rennes +7.5 0-2 (B'stard bastia missed a pen with 5 to go, Rennes had one cleared off the line with 2 to go)
   
   
The Sociedad and Barcelona match doesn’t really fit into the criteria for an over 2.5 bet with a +4 rating. However, I’m letting that slide seeing as every Barcelona away game this season has seen over 2.5 goals. Add that to the fact that Barça have only kept two clean sheets in 10 away matches and the +2.5 looks a solid.

Besiktas host Istanbul on Saturday evening with goals expected at the İnönü Stadium. Of the nine games played there, seven have seen over 2.5 goals and you have to go back to October to find the last time that didn’t happen. Whilst Istanbul’s away record isn’t so great, three of their last four away games have ended up over 2.5 Goals.

It’s unusual for a French game to feature in the overs category but that’s definitely the call as Bastia entertains Rennes on Sunday Afternoon. Rather surprisingly every Bastia home game this season (10) has seen over 2.5 goals whilst Rennes away record stands at 60%.

The treble pays just over 7/2 with Paddypower and Bet365.

Goals Galore:

5/8 - 8/9    19/01/2013 - 2.30pm    Werder Bremen vs Dortmund +8 0-5
10/13 - 8/13    19/01/2013 - 3pm    Peterborough  v Hull City +7 1-1
9/13 - 11/13    19/01/2013 - 3pm    Crystal Palace vs Bolton +6 0-0
7/9 - 6/9    19/01/2013 - 5.30pm    Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach +8 0-0

Die Borussen travel to Die Werderaner in the first league game after the winters break and given their respective records, one expects both teams to bag in this match. Stat Attack time: Werder Bremen has scored at least one goal in each of their last 11 matches. Werder Bremen has conceded at least one goal in each of their last 9 matches. Dortmund has scored at least one goal in each of their last 7 matches. Dortmund has conceded at least one goal in each of their last 7 matches. Dortmund has scored at least one goal in 100% of their away matches. Both teams to score bitte.

Peterborough are regulars in the BTTS bet having featured thrice and winning for us twice. Their record needs no explanation. Hull are eight from 13 in BTTS stats. Whilst their last game ended 0-0, you have to go back till October and some seven games prior to find the last time that didn’t happen.

Bolton score and concede for fun, ditto Palace. I can’t see no reason why that won’t be the case at Selhurst Park this Saturday.

Finally we have Hoffenheim vs Mönchengladbach. Stat attack time: Hoffenheim has conceded at least one goal in each of their last 11 matches. Hoffenheim has conceded at least one goal in 89% of their home matches. Mönchengladbach has scored at least one goal in each of their last 9 matches and have conceded in eight of their 9 away matches.

The four fold pays 6/1+ with StanJames.

Score/Win Treble.

League leaders Lyon play relegation battlers Evian TG on Friday night and should be a shoe in for the win. They have conceded nine goals in their last three away games and are up against Lyon who has scored an average of 2.3 goals per home match. With Gomis in fine onion bagging form and their main penalty taker, he is the pick for the score/win.

Third plays fifth in The Championship as Leicester host Middlesbrough. ‘Boro are in poor form on their travels at the moment with just one win in six and that was against Peterborough.  Leicester, after the signing of Chris Wood, has been banging them in for fun and has scored an impressive 10 goals in their last 3 matches, with Wood claiming six of them. With Wood in such fine form it pays to side with him.

Finally we have Watford vs Huddersfield. The terriers are in terrible form on their travels with just 1 away win in their last 8 games and just one win in their last 13. Watford can blow hot or cold at home but given the opposition I expect them to blow hot and blowing hotter to be Czech striker Matěj Vydra. With six goals in his last four starts, he knows the way to put the ball into the onion bag and against a team that has conceded six goals last time out, I except him to bag at least one.

The score/treble pays just under 15/1 with PaddyPower.

Africa Cup of Nations.

Algeria has been given a tough group but at 14/1 they can be risked. They won’t play favourites Ivory Coast until their last group game so hopefully will have qualification already wrapped up. As they are in the sane group as Ivory Coast they wouldn’t then meet them until the finals. With the each way terms being ½ of the odds, we’d get 7/1 for just reaching the final.

They have two strikers in Islam Slimani and El Arbi Hillel Soudani who have seemingly taken to international football and they are 40/1 and 66/1 respectively to be top onion bagger. Where normally 3/4 goals will do, and if they go far, it gives us a run for our money.

A more speculative bet is 250/1 double with Ladbrokes on Algeria winning the tournament and the two above players being top onion baggers.

Small stakes on the above is advised.