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happyhibee
11 Dec 13 18:16
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 33,262 | Blogger: happyhibee's blog
It's the first day of my favourite tournament of the year starting this Friday and I am exceptionally excited. Taylor looks a strong favourite for this but can Lewis win his 3rd or will mighty Mike get his hands on the trophy??? Lots of twists and turns to come and hopefully we get the usual banter and opinions on here for the duration Grin

First bet that took my eye is Lewis most tournament 180's at 2/1 (Or 21/10 in a place). Last 2 tournaments on tv has seen him hit them for fun and for this type of bet you really need a prolific hitter who is likely to go deep in the tournament. Could be wrong but it's 2/1 each of two between Adie and MVG and I cannot see anybody else bar this pair winning it. Will probably be one of them in the final if the draw pans out as expected and I fancy it might be Adie. Think I'm right in saying he had most maxes in both years he won the trophy and I fancy he won't be far away from a 3rd in which case he's likely to be banging in a lot of maximums along the way.

Second thing is looking back over the previous years I seemed to do my dough a lot in R1 matches so I will be having a lot less bets in the early stages. Not sure if its the underdogs missing doubles to land handicap bets or runaway wins in matches I pegged as close but I never seem to do well until R2. So based on that I doubt I'll be having more than 1 or 2 bets per day till the last 32

So onto the day 1 action on Friday night Happy

John Part v Mareno Michels:

Opening match sees 3 time champ John Part take on dutchman Mareno Michels who is making his PDC world championship debut. Part is a forum legend and a PDC mainstay but is showing definite signs of regressing. His last match on tv saw him miss 18 match doubles which gave him an unwanted record and it could be that he is nearing the end of the playing career and following Mardle into the media which he excels at. Michels is here as a result of qualifying through the european order of merit and I remember him playing in 2 or 3 BDO world championships at Lakeside a few years ago. His form hasn't been sparkling on the floor this year and it remains to be seen how he copes with the big stage which can take players by surprise. Not got a real opinion on this match but if Part doubles even averagely he should probably have enough to go through to R2.

Recommendation: No Bet

Ian Moss v Rob Szabo:

1st qualifying match and I can say hand on heart I could probably count on 1 hand bets I've had in these best of 7 legs. Not going to start throwing it away on a whim now either so very much a watching brief to see who gets beat 3v0 from Phil later in the evening.

Recommendation: No Bet

Peter Wright v Joe Cullen:

Wright is probably one of the most in form players on tour and has been for 12-18 months now. His outright odds are an insult and obviously factored into them is a likely meeting with Taylor in the last 16. He's a very solid scorer, doubles well and has a great attitude and I am a big fan (But not as big as Lori!). Cullen on the other hand is one of a lot of young PDC players who never actually seem to have kicked on and made any impact in a major tournament on tv. I think Wright will win this comfortably but unfortunately the match odds and handicap prices don't do much for me. 6/4 the whitewash looks a fair price if he has the darts but won't know that for 2 days so hard to advise based on that.

Recommendation: No Bet

Phil Taylor v Qualifier:

Taylor wins in a canter probably without losing a leg. We'll leave it at that Happy

Recommendation: No Bet

Dean Winstanley v Richie Burnett:

Last game of the evening sees Winstanley take on the mad welshman in what looks the best game of the evening (Or certainly the closest). Winstanley is a player who I really like but he's had a dreadful 2013 and really needs a big tournament here to try and get his career back on track. Burnett on the other hand has had a bit of a comeback in the past year or two and is chucking some decent darts on occasion. Last time he was on tv though his throwing action seemed to be getting more wild but he does actually seem to be able to control it. Before I looked at the betting I made Burnett marginal fav here so given he's the Evs outsider with most bookies I have to have a small bet on him as I think he might just edge a very close match.

Recommendation: 0.5pts win Richie Burnett @ Evs (general)

Summary: Only 1 minimum bet for the opening day on the crazy taff but still looking forward to the night immensely and getting the tournament off and running. all views and bets are as welcome as ever and hopefully I get as many laughs in the next 17 days as I have in the past few years doing this.

HH Happy

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Replies: 985
By:
a bitofinterest
When: 11 Dec 13 18:20
hopefully king john will be sober...ish Crazy
By:
Brian_Ookiebasher
When: 11 Dec 13 19:19
Christmas is finally here now that HH has posted.
Good luck to all over the next 3 weeks.

Some nights on here are priceless and I can't wait.
I'm all over MVG and lewis... One of them will win it I think
By:
happyhibee
When: 11 Dec 13 19:35
KJP should be as sober as a judge at 7.10pm

By 11pm probably not so much
By:
King Cally
When: 11 Dec 13 19:56
You are far too conservative HH. There are bets to be had on 95% of TV darts matches. Push the boat out a bit!
By:
happyhibee
When: 11 Dec 13 20:02
Theres bets to be had everywhere mate my problem is too many of them lose
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 11 Dec 13 20:15
Excellent write-up as usual HH and I can't disagree with anything you've posted.
As you suggest...the first round is an itchy-arse time and round two is the time to have more confidence in your bets though as ever, I can't resist having a dabble (to go with the copious drinks) to get into the swing.

Party is an insulting 7/10 (Bóylesports) to nail just THREE maxes - I can't see that failing and only a 9-0 leg whitewash can scupper that.
Wright is 8/13 to hit 4 180's and that's an easy 7/4 double for me that looks nailed on.

The main concern with such bets is that the opponent gets a hiding and there might not be enough legs if you start sweating...that's why there are some better propositions (Saturday & Sunday - Nico & Caven matches) as they won't be whitewashes.

Also, players like Chisnall & Baxter seem to prefer to do things the hard way so there should be plenty of missed doubles to gift their opponents a set or two.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 11 Dec 13 20:17
KC - round one is a minefield sometimes...HH is probably right to go easy on the stakes.
By:
the silverback
When: 11 Dec 13 20:24
I'll venture two opinions for day one. Szabo is better than Dave Harrington. And Szabo is a nice price.
By:
King Cally
When: 11 Dec 13 20:24
That's why I love it. It's a minefield for the odds compilers many of whom I wouldn't employ to make the tea let alone assess the chances of two darts players they cant be ar5ed to research!
By:
deansthemann
When: 11 Dec 13 20:29
I'll join in with you happyhibee

£50 - £1,000 STAKES

DAY ONE

ONLY BET £800 PETER WRIGHT TO BEAT JOE CULLEN @ 1/4 (LAD,COR)
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 11 Dec 13 20:40
HH - what's the record for a player hitting 180's in a tournament?
Is it Lewis' 61 (I think) from about three years ago?

If he gets to the final, I can see him absolutely smashing that record with around 80 if he continues in the same form he's been in recently...he's been outstanding.

I bet you can't get a decent price about that record going though it should be long odds against as he's likely to get tangled up with MVG in the semi.
By:
happyhibee
When: 11 Dec 13 20:41
Yeah think it is 61 he hit the first year he won it mate
By:
charwell.
When: 11 Dec 13 23:57
HH - your write up is as traditional as the xmas turkey but a lot more tasty!

I can see some good value prices in players outside the top 3 as everyone focuses on them. IMHO Anderson, Whitlock, Chizzy, Thornton, Huybrechts, Newton - all of these are good enough (of mentally fragile) to win and I fancy one of them will run far enough you can back them all from 50-1 to 250-1 to trade back for a tidy profit at the semi stage.

May sound fanciful but Van Gerwen has not won it so nerves on top of all the expectation could at some point get to him. Taylor is not getting any younger and is not invincible anymore in the WC. Lewis may have fitness issues in a succession of tough matches in the heat onstage. With a small ? over each of them I am taking them on this year.
By:
treble
When: 12 Dec 13 14:51
Good write up HH.

My opinions is that if Part plays anything like he did on the Players, then he could be crashing out first round. Unfortunately, the bookies appear to have realised this and Michels is a rather unattractive 2/1.

Cullen has two chances against Wright. Fat chance and no chance. The match odds are too poor, but the 4/6 on most 180's looks very tempting.

In the last match, I think you do Winstanley a slight disservice. I'm expecting a win for Deano here. He looks to be getting back on his feet slightly after a poor year.

I will be putting him in with my Wright 180's bet for a 2/1 double.

Any guesses yet on what price the 3-0 scoreline in Taylor's match will be?
By:
deansthemann
When: 12 Dec 13 14:52
Taylor, MVG and Lewis all come here on top of their respective games and are miles clear of the rest of the field, group performers taking on handicappers imo
taylor/mvg or taylor/lewis final with taylor showing his still the daddy
since he has got back with his wife yvonne the master is in the best place mentality he has been for years
By:
pauliow
When: 12 Dec 13 21:48
Great write up HH. Whilst the darts is on, the first thing I do when I log on is to look for your write ups. Had such a laugh on here last year I forgot to bet most of the timeLaugh. Easily the best forum there is. I'm away until the first Wednesday but will join you all when I get back. Good luck everyone, really looking forward to it.
By:
a bitofinterest
When: 12 Dec 13 21:57
will we still be upholding the darts forum xmas tradition of only posting while naked ?
By:
itfcbloke
When: 13 Dec 13 07:36
Another World Championship starts today, it wouldn't be Xmas without it and of course your top write ups HH keep them coming for some of us who don't get a chance to follow the tour week in and week out they are very informative.

Good luck with your bets everyone I've got a feeling that Jackpot could go close again this year.
By:
onehundredandeighty
When: 13 Dec 13 09:30
Here we go here we go here we go Cool
By:
Danno
When: 13 Dec 13 10:33
Always look forward to HH's summaries every year. Not sure I could cope with Xmas without the darts & cricket to follow.

Hard to see past a Taylor v MVG/Crackpot final.  About time Wade stepped up.
By:
harry2.1
When: 13 Dec 13 12:06
Most 180s in a tournament (individual): Adrian Lewis 60 (2011).
By:
johnwark
When: 13 Dec 13 16:41
This Michels got some decent scalps lately (Huybrechts and VDV) ,generally a mid 80s thrower but can easily do 90+, suspect that might be enough to beat Part. 11/4 looks pretty decent

Done Szabo small just because he's the bigger price and the market always under estimates the foreign qualifiers, hopefully get out for a free bet at Evens

Got to fancy Wright although Cullen beat him very recently, longer format should favour Wright surely

I think Winstanley has had just as good/bad year as Burnett, certainly averaging higher over the year. If it comes to a battle there's only one winner and might top up again if Burnett starts fast
By:
Lori
When: 13 Dec 13 17:06
Thanks as always HH.
With you on the Wright train (or you're with me, not sure which ;) )  and this year I've added Kellett to my stable of no hopers Laugh
I'm more excited this year than I have been for a while, which means it'll be shocking most likely.

Spread on how many times we get told the Huybrechts guys are brothers even before they play is about 15-17 and during the match about 33-35
By:
DartsnBooze
When: 13 Dec 13 17:37
Hibee, I agree with you about keeping things to a minimum in the first round.

However, i cant help but get sucked into some mug trebles/acca's early doors as some bets cream out at mighty cramped odds like Taylor @ 1/9 to beat szabo or moss 3-0 sets Laugh
I'll catch up on the thread as the night goes on...The chinese has arrived!
By:
happyhibee
When: 13 Dec 13 18:58
Is it sad that I'm excited at the prospect of John Part v Marino Michels as it kicks off the greatest tournament in the calendar??
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 13 Dec 13 19:00
Here we go
By:
DartsnBooze
When: 13 Dec 13 19:00
Part opening the worlds is the bollocks! Shame i cant find one bet for this match. Maybe some small stakes in-play
By:
loserschaselosers
When: 13 Dec 13 19:01
thanks for write ups happyhibee. top stuff.
By:
Lori
When: 13 Dec 13 19:02
You know it's a big event when Step's in from day one
By:
happyhibee
When: 13 Dec 13 19:02
No worries mate wouldn't be christmas without me rambling a load of pish on here Grin
By:
happyhibee
When: 13 Dec 13 19:03
If Taylor loses tonight I think we could all agree it would be the greatest shock ever in darts yes? Wonder if there will be any 1.01 available
By:
Lori
When: 13 Dec 13 19:03
I agree, although JWD probably knows the whole list of biggest ever upsets.
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 13 Dec 13 19:03
Cant be missing opening night lori.

Hope yer doing ok.
By:
Lori
When: 13 Dec 13 19:04
Good cheers, same to you.  That runout cost me a few quid though.
By:
happyhibee
When: 13 Dec 13 19:05
Any idea who the Post tipped up today gents?

I was honestly thinking today what the biggest upset I can remember in the worlds is and I was a bit stumped
By:
Nilsson Schmilsson
When: 13 Dec 13 19:05
poor dave not looking good today dave Sad
By:
Lori
When: 13 Dec 13 19:06
Didn't Barny get beat by an unknown a year or two ago? or did he escape?
By:
the silverback
When: 13 Dec 13 19:07
james richardson.
By:
happyhibee
When: 13 Dec 13 19:07
yeah he did lost 3v0 to a heavy chap Richardson I believe?
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