Darts
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Well happy 2013 to one and all on the darts forum and hopefully the hangovers aren't too bad by the time 8pm comes around. One game to go which is the culmination of a very entertaining 2 weeks on this forum and hopefully we can sign off on a winning note 
Michael Van Gerwen v Phil Taylor:
SF - Van Gerwen bt James Wade 6-4
Ave: 97.87
180's: 14
HC: 144
CO%: 38%
Taylor bt Raymond Van Barneveld 6-4
Ave: 98.98
180's: 4
HC: 141
CO%: 41%
The final is probably the one we all wanted to see between the old master and the young apprentice. It all went off in the semi's what with 9 darters, almost another 9 darter and then Taylor almost coming to fisticuffs with Barney on stage. I love watching Van Gerwen play as hes so entertaining and in full flow he is like nothing I've seen in 20 years watching darts. The way he came back from 2 or 3 iffy legs to almost hit back to back 9 darters was incredible and I'm sure I wasnt the only one screaming go on at the tv when it was on! Its obviously his first final and it remains to be seen whether the nerves will get to him but I just think he loves playing darts and hopefully treats it as just another match. Taylor on the other hand has obviously been over the course a few times given its his 19th final. He's won 19 from 19 semi finals but he has proved vulnerable in the past in finals losing 3 of them. He's played well in his QF and SF but has showed some fragility on doubles especially when it got tight v Barney. He's also talking very negatively claiming illness and thinking about retiring etc and I dont think thats what you need going into this match. The bet I fancy for this final is just a straight up back of Van Gerwen to win the title. I think his heavy scoring will be too much for Taylor and even though he may miss some doubles I think overall he will be too strong and will win his first of probably many world titles. The Evs is all gone unfortunately but at a shade of odds on I still think he represents value.
Recommendation: 3pts win Michael Van Gerwen @ 10/11 (General)
Summary: I've had a thoroughly enjoyable fortnight with putting these up and sharing in some great laughs along the way will all the old faces and some new ones on the darts forum. Its easily the best forum on here I think and all I can say is best of luck to all tonight and may the best man win. Oh and Roll on the BDO
HH
Michael Van Gerwen v Phil Taylor:
SF - Van Gerwen bt James Wade 6-4
Ave: 97.87
180's: 14
HC: 144
CO%: 38%
Taylor bt Raymond Van Barneveld 6-4
Ave: 98.98
180's: 4
HC: 141
CO%: 41%
The final is probably the one we all wanted to see between the old master and the young apprentice. It all went off in the semi's what with 9 darters, almost another 9 darter and then Taylor almost coming to fisticuffs with Barney on stage. I love watching Van Gerwen play as hes so entertaining and in full flow he is like nothing I've seen in 20 years watching darts. The way he came back from 2 or 3 iffy legs to almost hit back to back 9 darters was incredible and I'm sure I wasnt the only one screaming go on at the tv when it was on! Its obviously his first final and it remains to be seen whether the nerves will get to him but I just think he loves playing darts and hopefully treats it as just another match. Taylor on the other hand has obviously been over the course a few times given its his 19th final. He's won 19 from 19 semi finals but he has proved vulnerable in the past in finals losing 3 of them. He's played well in his QF and SF but has showed some fragility on doubles especially when it got tight v Barney. He's also talking very negatively claiming illness and thinking about retiring etc and I dont think thats what you need going into this match. The bet I fancy for this final is just a straight up back of Van Gerwen to win the title. I think his heavy scoring will be too much for Taylor and even though he may miss some doubles I think overall he will be too strong and will win his first of probably many world titles. The Evs is all gone unfortunately but at a shade of odds on I still think he represents value.
Recommendation: 3pts win Michael Van Gerwen @ 10/11 (General)
Summary: I've had a thoroughly enjoyable fortnight with putting these up and sharing in some great laughs along the way will all the old faces and some new ones on the darts forum. Its easily the best forum on here I think and all I can say is best of luck to all tonight and may the best man win. Oh and Roll on the BDO
HH
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hi hh i would be all over phil to win this but with doubts about his health,he had a bad cold at best the other night i thought.also the possible negative effect the crowd could have on him if they boo,disrespect him to much,and his claimed disallusion with the game there are to many variables for me.wadey won 4 sets and averaged 10 less than mvg,phil you would think will match him average wise and pick up the pieces when mvg misses doubles.hence i am going to say no bet for me.i will probably just try to trade a few quid on some of the markets pre of,gl all.
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Thanks for your analysis and comments HH, first class. I also fancy MVG, but thought the price would have been better. Still unsure if it's worth a bet at the price. I think MVG has shown great composure and when the doubling has deserted him, his attitude has been excellent, in sharp contrast to the Barney head shaking routine. I think he knows he's good enough to beat Taylor, if he hits the doubles, you would fancy him strongly to outscore Taylor, the great imponderable is the finishing...will it hold up over a gruelling 7 sets and under the utmost pressure given how strong Taylor is in this department? It's a great clash in prospect and I hope to witness a changing of the guard, to the quicker, much more likable Mighty Mike.
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Happy New Year HH. C'mon MVG!!
I'm interested to see the crowds reaction to Taylor tonight, think it could have a huge bearing on the outcome. |
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Very reluctantly I think Feel has to be backed at the price on offer but am very wary for the reasons scarecrow mentioned plus others. But I'm still struggling to make it anything other than big value.
I've adjusted my outright position accordingly but there's little enough in it that I'm happy to cheer on MVG even if it means a few quid less in the bank. Taylor hasn't hit a lot of maxes this tournament but even so I think a couple of the books have given a fairly generous price on his overs (5-6 or so over 7.5). This match would be expected to go something like 45 legs which has him in for less than 7.5 on his rate this tournament. But his rate last tournament was much better and would convert to closer to 12. I think market makers have taken too short-term a view on this one, you can't just work off figures from his last 5 matches. Some value on match overs too for the same reason. |
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i dont understand the MVG bandwagon at all.
dont anticipate the illness being a problem and 2mm lower on one of the darts at double 20 to beat Barney 6-1 and i reckon Taylor would have been 4/7ish |
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Thanks for all the write-ups HH, required reading throughout the championship. No bet for me at this stage, but I'll probably have a nibble in-play.
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feel
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Phil's just getting the excuses ready with his "illness" and also trying to shift pressure to MVG. We don't see MVG moaning about his legs.
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Its a good point Zazu. I think Feel was something like 1.70 at 5-1 up. Strong reaction to dropping three sets - the first of which he should have won like you say.
Suspect his price will drop as we get nearer the off. |
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Thanks hh for a great read for what seems to have lasted months not weeks. Really want mvg to win this so much and think he will although if the smug one hits his doubles he could be in for a tough night.
Hh don't disapear when the bdo starts this year'''' |
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"i dont understand the MVG bandwagon at all.
dont anticipate the illness being a problem and 2mm lower on one of the darts at double 20 to beat Barney 6-1 and i reckon Taylor would have been 4/7ish" He'd have been 4/6 to 8/11 on here imo but then he didn't win 6-1, he wobbled over the line 6-4, and then showed signs of further mental fragility with his brush off with Barnet, his on air excuses, and the following day realisation that he'd acted foolishly. That only represents a 10% swing in his chances which is fair enough. |
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yes silverback zazu's point is my reading of why i would want to be on phil without all the things that have happened since the 5-1 tipping point in the barney game,if it finished 6-1 i think he would have been 4/6ish just pre off myself,before the final.we may all end up with egg on our faces but even at what i consider generous odds on phil(feel)
i cannot bring myself to back him because of the doubts about him now. |
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Thanks hh for your excelent daily previews, the Christmas break wouldn't be the same without them. I'm taking Phil's comments about retirement with a pinch of salt, he'll be up for it at 8:15 tonight. I backed Phil pre-tournement but would love to see MVG beat him. After calling RVB a bad loser the other night Phil's reaction would be very interesting. Finally happy new year to all the darts forum regulars.
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thanks HH, always love the right ups!
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As much as I despise the man, I'm backing Phil.
MVG coughed up match darts to Lewis and 4 sets to a very average James Wade. Think Phil will temper an early storm and win relatively comfortably. |
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this is a quite tough 1 to call. i wasnt impressed with mvg finishing v wade. his scoring shud have seen him win 6-1 r 2 easily yet wade really cud have won it had he scored better.But also felt taylor became very nervous wen barny started to play after being 5-1 down. If u handed me a tener and said back 1 id pick mvg but i wudnt be risking alot of doe on either, perhaps just best to kick back and enjoy it
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The government should have stepped in and insisted this match be screened live on terestrial tv for all to see. Has the makings of an all time classic. A tough tough match to predict with serious money. My gut feeling wont arrive til after the walk on and seeing who throws first plus the crowd reaction. Taylors cold....Mvgs feet....the experience....the world final novice....Lets hope mvg doesnt suffer barney trapped in the headlights syndrome.
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The government should have stepped in and insisted this match be screened live on terestrial tv for all to see. Has the makings of an all time classic. A tough tough match to predict with serious money. My gut feeling wont arrive til after the walk on and seeing who throws first plus the crowd reaction. Taylors cold....Mvgs feet....the experience....the world final novice....Lets hope mvg doesnt suffer barney trapped in the headlights syndrome.
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Thanks for all the write-ups, happyhibbee...very enjoyable.
Hard to call tonight, I think the illness is a red herring and I don't think I would back against Taylor. |
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Do you guys reckon Taylor under 8.5 180's is worth a bet? He hasn't even hit more than 5 in a match so far
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Likewise thanks to HH for all your input mate.
I've a bit of a shocker on the darting front as I'm just about to leave for a short trip to Norway. Anyone got any idea as to whether the Norwegians are into darts or if I'm likely to see the game tonight. A bar recommendation in Oslo would be useful too |
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I see one bookmaker going the same odds of the outright winner and which player will finish with the highest average.
Just wondering if MVG is better value to win or finish with the highest average. |
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Good question Paddletoe, I havn't checked the stats, but I'd guess MVG been ahead each round leading up to the semi vs. Taylor but I'd recommend you check that stat before having any money on. If that proves to be true, you'd have to say there's a case for a bet if it's near even money.
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he probably is, given all taylors opponents have been **** and have not helped phils average at all
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Taylor could easily have the better average tonight and still get beat.
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I think Taylor will be steamrollered on the scoring by MVG, and the entire match depends on MVG's doubles...if he misses like he did against Wade he WILL be seriously punished.
As HH suggests...MVG could possibly be slightly over-awed going for the 'Holy Grail' for the first time, as maybe that was a problem against King initially at Dublin (the biggest match of his career at the time) and then against Barney, he may well have had 'the legend' of RVB in his head at the GSOD, when he under-performed. His temperament is solid but he may be out-psyched by the wily old Taylor. I think it's a 'sit this one out' and enjoy without a bet because the guarantee of MVG hitting more maxes has no mileage in it at the prices. |
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Happy New Year HH. Love your write-ups. Your threads are one of the few constructive and informative ones on the whole forum. fwiw i've sold 180's on the spreads at about 24. I don't think Taylor will contribute that many.
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Well done HH great 3 weeks work made me a few quid covered 2 weddings 4 me. Hope ur around 4 the BDO. I bet I like the look of 4 the neutrals is over 45 legs 5/6. Interest 4 the whole game reguardsless of result. Happy new year folks.
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just 1 question. is nicola and sarah the 2 blondes back tonight
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Just how deadly has Taylor been in 2012?
Without checking stats, from memory I'd say there haven't been that many games where he's been excellent - he was superb in the Premier League draw against Lewis, against Ovens in the SF before Thornton beat him at the Reebok and for the last five legs against Hamilton. There have been many shabby performances and defeats on TV over the last 12 months and that beating he got from MVG in the GSOD had him fuming like a spoilt kid, as he was totally outplayed! The 'big-balled' comments before the match against RVB even had me convinced he was going to do something really special but he didn't...maybe finally, it's not in his locker any more? He was only so c0cky because he know's he's got Raymond in his pocket (head-wise) and that was evident in the first set the other night! Can he find his best against MVG tonight? I'm not so sure and I'm convinced Michael's to lose. Any more Taylor classics from 2012 you can remember? Is there a list of his TV performances over the last 12 months online? |
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THE POWER,HIS RECORD WILL STAND FOREVER,IT CANT BE MATCHED.
 .GL WITH YOUR DUTCHMAN. |
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im getting on mvg now. reckon he will be thumped into 1.9 before play
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Has the clogmaker ever won the world title?
I know geof hall about darts but anything above evens is just plain silly a bout a multiple world champion like Taylor. He could literally wipe the floor with this kid in this sort of environment. |
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Taylor at +5 at 6/4 in the 180s handicap seems a fair price.
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does that mean he has 5 180`s a start on cloggs & is priced 6/4 to do it?
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Harry - I think the most 180's handicap is worth steering clear of as it SHOULD be a walkover for MVG but Taylor's got 'form' for showing the big hitters who's boss...he seemed to be making a point against Anderson a couple of years ago and stuffed him!
If Taylor gets ahead and settles (and MVG looks nervous) he's that arrogant he might try showboating, as I've a hunch he doesn't really like MVG. I've given up second-guessing this geezer over the years as he's cost me plenty of cash  |
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The Forum once more owes a big 'thank you' to HH for his daily previews. The Forum's thankfully had a bit of a recovery this last month, and it's good to see a few new regulars emerging.
Down to business.... I think Phil's had the worst possible preparation for this Final, what with him clearly being full of a cold, and seeing his depressing antics that followed the SF win. If he'd hit double-top at 5-1 we'd probably be looking at an entirely different situation I suspect. It's possible the jealous Darting Gods have finally caught up with him after his unparalleled 20plus years at the apex of the sport, and now they intend to make him suffer. Very rarely do sportsmen aged 50 and over become World Champions, and even rarer still do 52 year olds get to go out right on top at a time of their choosing after such a lengthy reign. In any other year I'd have expected Phil to beat MVG fairly handily, with a head to head record of something like 16-4, with 15 wins in a row in there along the way. MVG has, significantly I think, taken the last 2, including an overwhelming televised win in Dublin, where doubles are even more important than here. I just hope it's not a bloodbath and that the underpowered Phil can push the new star to a hard-fought game. In the circumstances I make MVG a favourite, unless his bottle goes completely, and he doesn't seem to be in that mould. |
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fear for the forum regulars tonight, footy mongs already making their way over
 don't think i'll be around |