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20 Jul 17
09:21
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11 Jul 11
The queen stage.
When you have a summit finish, let alone a summit finish on the queen stage, the GC riders not only know what to expect but what is expected of them and today it is all about attacking riding over 14.1kms of road @ 7.3% in order to make their mark on the race. Glory or defeat. There will be attacks. There will be fireworks!
This is the first time in the Tour's past three editions where the Col d'Izoard has been used in the finale. Both in the 2014 177km stage 14 edition, and the 200km 2011 stage 18 edition, the Izoard had been used in the middle of the three categorized climbs, not at its conclusion.
In 2014 Majka won what was regarded as the queen stage, when he attacked the remaining riders of the early 17-man breakaway with some 10kms to-go. The race for 4th-place was won by Pinot when he came home stronger than Bardet after a tough fight between the two FRA riders.
In 2011 Andy Schleck attacked on the Izoard out of the select peloton and with some 60kms to-go, to solo to victory, using satellite teammates up the road. It was a magnificent tactical move by Leopard Trek, and in fact it was a dream day with brother Frank finishing in 2nd-place.
I believe that SKY now know there is not enough firepower from rival teams to warrant hard riding, and that if ALM are not forming a move for Bardet, there will be no real requirement for them to drill the pace throughout the stage. This suggests that they are confident in Froome's condition that he will withstand any attacks on the final climb. Nevertheless, I think stage glory is very important for Froome and giving the appearance of riding in a lazy manner is not the SKY way, so I cannot see them allowing the breakaway much leeway, today.
Froome is unlikely to animate the GC race. He will cover attacks and defend, and he will have Landa for a long way. Landa has stated he will not do anything to jeopardize Froome's chances and I believe him. Froome will only launch an attack if when approaching the summit he feels that all the attacks against him have been nullified and he has enough stores to reach out and go "bury-mode".
Make no mistake, a stage win for Froome is very important to him. He is a racer and a student of history. In every edition of his three Tour titles he has won at least one stage (won one also in his 2012 ride with Wiggins) and he has won summit-finish stages in two of the three Tours he has won. There is an understanding that the way he trains, summit finishes is where the race is for him nowadays, and he is so scientific in that training that he will know his moment on the final climb today and I would expect that whirling, ungainly cadence to take him away from his pursuers and into an emphatic stage win. Froome knows he needs the stage win to make a statement about his legitimacy as a 3-peat winner. He has dreamed of winning it like this, and to win it SKY need to control the break which I think they will do. The pace will be high, and Froome will defend or counter attack once on the final climb to win.
Bardet looks lively and he will go bury-mode at some point on the final climb. He can and he has to. Froome has his measure and will take Bardet's attack to roll over the top of him and go for home. Uran will attempt to pinch some secs toward the line, but to do that he has to reproduce the form which saw him win the summit finish to Altopiano Del Montasio in the 2013 Giro stage 10, when he took out 30secs from Nibali and Evans. There is no evidence for a destructive attack from him but he does look fresh, so if Froome falters and the others have nothing left he might benefit; he has done no work whatsoever, but I think he needs Froome and Bardet to falter, and I don't think Froome will make any mistakes here. Uran is close, but he needs it to be closer, he can beat Froome in the ITT, but to beat him there he needs to beat him here first.
SKY dominance. Froome dominance. Froome stage win.
Froome was 3/1 at SP into 13/5, and I would expect more support to follow for him and his price to go into as low as 5/2.
Good luck to all.
When you have a summit finish, let alone a summit finish on the queen stage, the GC riders not only know what to expect but what is expected of them and today it is all about attacking riding over 14.1kms of road @ 7.3% in order to make their mark on the race. Glory or defeat. There will be attacks. There will be fireworks!
This is the first time in the Tour's past three editions where the Col d'Izoard has been used in the finale. Both in the 2014 177km stage 14 edition, and the 200km 2011 stage 18 edition, the Izoard had been used in the middle of the three categorized climbs, not at its conclusion.
In 2014 Majka won what was regarded as the queen stage, when he attacked the remaining riders of the early 17-man breakaway with some 10kms to-go. The race for 4th-place was won by Pinot when he came home stronger than Bardet after a tough fight between the two FRA riders.
In 2011 Andy Schleck attacked on the Izoard out of the select peloton and with some 60kms to-go, to solo to victory, using satellite teammates up the road. It was a magnificent tactical move by Leopard Trek, and in fact it was a dream day with brother Frank finishing in 2nd-place.
I believe that SKY now know there is not enough firepower from rival teams to warrant hard riding, and that if ALM are not forming a move for Bardet, there will be no real requirement for them to drill the pace throughout the stage. This suggests that they are confident in Froome's condition that he will withstand any attacks on the final climb. Nevertheless, I think stage glory is very important for Froome and giving the appearance of riding in a lazy manner is not the SKY way, so I cannot see them allowing the breakaway much leeway, today.
Froome is unlikely to animate the GC race. He will cover attacks and defend, and he will have Landa for a long way. Landa has stated he will not do anything to jeopardize Froome's chances and I believe him. Froome will only launch an attack if when approaching the summit he feels that all the attacks against him have been nullified and he has enough stores to reach out and go "bury-mode".
Make no mistake, a stage win for Froome is very important to him. He is a racer and a student of history. In every edition of his three Tour titles he has won at least one stage (won one also in his 2012 ride with Wiggins) and he has won summit-finish stages in two of the three Tours he has won. There is an understanding that the way he trains, summit finishes is where the race is for him nowadays, and he is so scientific in that training that he will know his moment on the final climb today and I would expect that whirling, ungainly cadence to take him away from his pursuers and into an emphatic stage win. Froome knows he needs the stage win to make a statement about his legitimacy as a 3-peat winner. He has dreamed of winning it like this, and to win it SKY need to control the break which I think they will do. The pace will be high, and Froome will defend or counter attack once on the final climb to win.
Bardet looks lively and he will go bury-mode at some point on the final climb. He can and he has to. Froome has his measure and will take Bardet's attack to roll over the top of him and go for home. Uran will attempt to pinch some secs toward the line, but to do that he has to reproduce the form which saw him win the summit finish to Altopiano Del Montasio in the 2013 Giro stage 10, when he took out 30secs from Nibali and Evans. There is no evidence for a destructive attack from him but he does look fresh, so if Froome falters and the others have nothing left he might benefit; he has done no work whatsoever, but I think he needs Froome and Bardet to falter, and I don't think Froome will make any mistakes here. Uran is close, but he needs it to be closer, he can beat Froome in the ITT, but to beat him there he needs to beat him here first.
SKY dominance. Froome dominance. Froome stage win.
Froome was 3/1 at SP into 13/5, and I would expect more support to follow for him and his price to go into as low as 5/2.
Good luck to all.
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70 Nairo, unbeleivable the Demise of perhaps one of the Most promising riders a couple of Years back ,the loss of valverde is one Thing ,but he has hardly taken part
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I think this Tour has been an afterthought for Quintana, he rode (and expected to win) the Giro. But having failed there perhaps saw this as a recovery mission.
But there's a reason TdF contenders don't ride the Giro.... I wonder if Barguil might try and cap an excellent Tour by jumping off the front of the GC group today on the final climb. He has shown himself perfectly capable of riding with them and then attacking for mountain points and has a clear appetite for stages. The downside is that having secured the polka dots by then that he might rest on those laurels. He's a fair each way price, in my view, as even if not winning, he could easily pick up the pieces behind a dominant performance if other protagonists have exploded. |
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Morning gents. On the Quintana issue:
I believe the original plan was to do the Giro/Tour Double with Quintana. Quintana came into the Giro entirely ready for a top performance after a solid if not as comprehensive a season as we would have expected from him. Nevertheless, the plan was to win the Giro and then the Tour. People may argue it was all bluster in order to dominate his rivals in the Giro and possibly scare the Tour contenders if the performance was there. Something went wrong in the Giro for Quintana. I haven't as yet put a finger on the diagnosis, but it was unexpected and subtle and it needs much more inquiry. After essentially failing to win the Giro, MOV were committed to have him in the Tour as Valverde's super-domestique and alternative podium chance. MOV would have put a lot of faith in Quintana to do the Double and when he failed they needed a return on their "faith investment". That it has unravelled for MOV due to unfortunate circumstances seeing Valverde abandon after sustaining injuries in the crash in TT opener. Even if Quintana had won the Giro he would have struggled with his legs, and so I am echoing the understanding of how difficult it is to achieve. |
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There is no peloton on this stage so far -- there are two groups.
The SKY group. And a group represented by nearly all the teams, containing some 51 riders. I didn't expect such a big group, at all. |
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The next biggest group we saw form a breakaway was 50 riders on stage 8 when Calmejane won.
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33mins behind Froome on the GC is best in the breakaway Feillu. No alarm for SKY but they wouldn't want this to get out of hand.
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Sky on the front, now.
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SKY, BOH, and TLJ -- not represented in the breakaway.
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SKY will look to control the break at no more than 5mins.
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They will, but given the size of the group that will mean burning matches faster than they would've hoped.
I can see Froome isolated (or with only Landa for support) a long way from home, Nieve seems burnt out and surely Kwia can't keep banging out these monstrous efforts? The other GC boys will be licking their lips at the chance to soften Froome up with multiple attacks on Izoard. |
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It could even suit Sky to change plan and let them go to concentrate on GC, rather than risk Yellow in Paris for glory on one stage.
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Froome needs a stage win to defend the inevitable accusations, should he not win a stage, that he didn't really dominate and his win can be regarded as soft.
It is a big group and it is combining very well, and there are multiple riders involved as domestiques to drive the break for their climber in the break, but it hasn't once gone over 5mins. |
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Break splitting up on the first cat.3, a big group never stays big.
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Calmejane was the one to attack, De Gendt came across, and then Edet.
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By attacking they have injected the speed necessary to increase the gap -- now at 5:30.
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6mins -- stable after the injection from break attack -- now together again is the break.
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That's actually a bridging with four other riders making it across -- that's seven out in front.
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6mins -- not enough.
7mins -- could be okay. 8mins -- alarm bells -- break can make it. |
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Brambilla
Chavanel Pauwels Tulik Clarke Vachon Swift With no De Gendt and Calmejane it was actually a counter attack when the breakaway rejoined. |
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Chavanel-of-old could go hard for long. Brambilla can have his day, but this looks too tough, Pauwels has been in the break on multiple occasions and will suffer, but he is probably the best chance of these. Cannot get excited by any of them, and I think others from the intial break group might still make it across.
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7mins, however still resisting them on account of weak quality of climbers.
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58.5kms to-go looks like the "magic" marker today.
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They're easing up, waiting for the big break group to make it up behind them.
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8mins -- I think that's a decent gap for a breakaway rider to win the stage. Not sure who, though.
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Obviously a climber, or a warrior like Cummings.
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Talansky won that epic Mt.Baldy stage in California, earlier in the season.
If he can rediscover that form on this stage and is on good sensations, he will be very hard to beat. He was CDT's GC man here, and things haven't worked out. Teammate Rolland and Clarke are with him. Clarke was here to drive the pace of the breakaway, only. Rolland is their stage hunter, and he has been saving himself after riding the Giro, but they would have more faith in Talansky, but it will be a call to be made on the road between them according to who feels better. The market likes Rolland more. Talansky really needs it though, in order to continue to rebuild his GC credentials. He was involved in the breakaway on the other massive breakaway stage 8 and could not go with the accelerations. They'll soon be attacking on the Vars, probably half-way up where it is really steep, so it will be interesting to see if he makes the selection, first. |
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No, they haven't even hit the base of the climb and they are already hitting each other.
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The market says Mollema, but I don't think this stage suits him. He won well on stage 15, but he looked vulnerable climbing and only really won it by digging and going deep on the flats when in TT mode.
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BOH assisting is bringing the gap down, and the cohesion is missing very early.
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Not sure why, though. They had two in no-man's land for a while...
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The breakaway has split, but they need cohesion.
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Poljanski might need a rest, he has taken some time out of the gap, but it's stabilising at 7:20.
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Attempting to get matched on Benoot in the 20s might make sense, he is developing, has shown some great form by being involved in the breaks on stages 9/15 and the market will respect him if he can go with teh accelerations on the steeper portions.
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Good signs that Roelandts has driven it on the flats, next LTS confirmation it's for Benoot, is if Gallopin comes to the front on the steep climb portions.
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7mins on the climb proper to the break, another selection of climbers which inspires cohesion on the descent and flats, and they are in with a fair chance. Wouldn't want it much less than 7mins though, as it might complicate things again.
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Still think 20s is where the value is, that he is young is both a positive and negative, lack of experience might see him get into a rope-a-dope situation, and he just needs to ride his own race and allow his talent and development to dictate terms.
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And if he does that than it becomes a positive since he doesn't know what should hurt and what shouldn't, and he will justpush himself and turn himself inside out.
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Next "magic" number is 50kms to-go -- that's at the bottom of the Vars.
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Steep stuff climbing...
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