Cycling
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Post rest day we have a stage that looks for all the world like a sprint. We're now into the third week of a Grand Tour though, and despite the rest day pit stops some guys have had (see the Froome and Aru long sleeve pics on another fred) accumulated fatigue is going to play a part. The first half of this stage would look to be suitable for a breakaway. They're on false flat right from the start and soon into a long drag of a Cat 3 climb. After that the road is lumpy and even though there's only one more categorised climb, and that's only a 2.8km Cat 4, this looks like the sort of terrain that would suit a break. The problem is that the lumpy terrain runs out with still 95km to go. After more or less 50km of descending the last 50km are more or less flat. Perfect terrain for bringing back a break.
So how will it pan out, break or sprint? There's several things crucial to how this stage will pan out. Bling and Kittel are still contesting the green jersey. It's unlikely Matthews will be allowed in the break today so the late positioning of the intermediate sprint may not be a factor but certainly the sprinters teams will be eyeing the stage win. However, of the 7 sprint finishes only Kittel (5) has a win to his name from those who are still here. I can't see Katusha, both Lottos and Cofidis working AGAIN just to hand another stage to Kittel. There's one surefire way to avoid having to do any work in the chase down today, and that's to get a man up in the break. Teams without stage wins (BMC, Bahrain) may see this as one of the last opportunities to salvage something from this race and we can expect them to target this. Of interest will be whether Etixx try and get a man up in the break (Gilbert or possibly Stybar?) They are the only team who definitely want this to end in a bunch sprint. If they get a man up there the break surely won't come back? There is a slight but remote chance of crosswinds and if it does come back together the finish is relatively straightforward, albeit with the usual selection of roundabouts and corners.
So, I'm leaning towards a break escaping today. The climbing at the start should enable a sizeable break to get away. I'm looking primarily to men who've already shown an inclination to get involved in breaks and if there is any lack of co-ordination in the chase behind they could well ride to stage glory.
King Kung was my original idea of the winner today (33/1), but I've added Gilbert (33/1), Van Baarle (66/1), Van Rensburg (150/1) and Seneschal (500/1).
So how will it pan out, break or sprint? There's several things crucial to how this stage will pan out. Bling and Kittel are still contesting the green jersey. It's unlikely Matthews will be allowed in the break today so the late positioning of the intermediate sprint may not be a factor but certainly the sprinters teams will be eyeing the stage win. However, of the 7 sprint finishes only Kittel (5) has a win to his name from those who are still here. I can't see Katusha, both Lottos and Cofidis working AGAIN just to hand another stage to Kittel. There's one surefire way to avoid having to do any work in the chase down today, and that's to get a man up in the break. Teams without stage wins (BMC, Bahrain) may see this as one of the last opportunities to salvage something from this race and we can expect them to target this. Of interest will be whether Etixx try and get a man up in the break (Gilbert or possibly Stybar?) They are the only team who definitely want this to end in a bunch sprint. If they get a man up there the break surely won't come back? There is a slight but remote chance of crosswinds and if it does come back together the finish is relatively straightforward, albeit with the usual selection of roundabouts and corners.
So, I'm leaning towards a break escaping today. The climbing at the start should enable a sizeable break to get away. I'm looking primarily to men who've already shown an inclination to get involved in breaks and if there is any lack of co-ordination in the chase behind they could well ride to stage glory.
King Kung was my original idea of the winner today (33/1), but I've added Gilbert (33/1), Van Baarle (66/1), Van Rensburg (150/1) and Seneschal (500/1).
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 103
|
By:
 |
|
By:
Gilbert out!
|
|
By:
I pick my stages..
 What do Sunweb do today is the question? The only tactic I can see them having is drilling it over the first two climbs to get rid of Kittel and the other specialist sprinters. Can they make it back on the downhill/flat/false flat? Possibly, but the only chance for Matthews is to have a go. So on that basis I suggest that we'll struggle to get a clear breakaway. Not betting as I don't think the prices will change that much, but I'm looking at EBH and Degenkolb for today. Both in decent/good form so far and if they can get rid of or tire the likes of Kittel/Greipel I think they can do well. Good luck all. |
|
By:
What's your sauce MC?
I've checked the LeTour site and he's not listed as a WD. I thought the price was too good to be true, £2 I'll never see again  I fancy GVA today, he's been looking strong - rode with the GC group until the final climb on Saturday - and no-one will be looking to shut him down. But he's a bit skinny at 16/1, so will wait and see the composition of the break before playing. |
|
By:
Gilbert wrote on Twitter that he's gone home because of sickness.
|
|
By:
Cheers for putting the thread up MC, actually wasn't ready with anything worthy of publishing for this one.
I agree that a break is a decent chance to win, today. I use the stage 10 in the 2016 edition over 197kms as evidence that stages precisely like this suit the breakaway to some extent, and that the breakaway has a good chance of winning today. In that particular race in 2016, the breakaway were out for some 130kms after an early climb albeit a much harder one than the cat.3 here, so the 100kms left remaining after the sprinters finish their slow plod over the climbs, is not beyond the capabilities of the breakaway, especially since they have that long descent and they are likely to be combining together nicely. In 2016, the sprinters' teams busted it out also along the flats since they wanted a bunch sprint, which I agree is going to be the case here, however that will take hard riding and concentration and possibly even cooperation from other teams. The sprinters are going out the back on the first climb -- no doubt -- 4.5kms @ 6.3% will hurt them and they will not cope. Even though Kittel has been climbing relatively well for a sprinter, the tempo on the front by SKY are going hurt Kittel and the other sprinters, and that could become a gap of some 4-5mins with 100kms to-go. Obviously not enough, but the composition will have a big influence and I agree that the other sprinters teams might just sit back and let QST do all the work, which would mean essentially Vermote against at least 6 riders, but more like 12 or more. Since the breakaway are in with a chance, I like Stephen Cummings on account of the Rest Day allowing him the time to recover from his stage 12 heroics. Cummings was 50/1 at SP and has enojyed heavy support to be now half that price at 25/1. Most of the value has now gone, and he is not guaranteed to get into the break, but this looks like a suitable stage for him so have included him at ante-post. Will look at the likely composition of the breakaway and the all-important time gaps after the climbing portion shows the sprinters throw out the saddlebags and get distanced. Good luck to all. |
|
By:
Cheers CJ. Shame, that said, I think he missed his chance on Saturday when going from far too far out, I really fancied him on that finish.
|
|
By:
TV talking about crosswinds. An ideal time to target Aru for the strong GC teams I'd suggest. Ifthe peleton pushes it from the start there's a chance he'll only have Zeits and Valgren with him if we get the wind.
|
|
By:
Speaking of Gilbert, I actually thought that finish might not have been explosive-enough for Gilbert, so did not consider him beyond the short list, but the way he capitulated on the climb when going with De Marchi and Chavanel in that lead 3-man group on stage 13 suggested his form was questionable, too.
Wind definitely a factor, might be a nice cross/tailwind for the breakaway and as such an advantage. |
|
By:
QST are on the ball here with Dan Martin, neautralizing the break by being involved, SKY will have to ramp it up, do all the work for QST and Kittel.
|
|
By:
Bling has dropped back it would appear so this istill okay, I think. Waiting on the second group to make it across. Bling cannot get into the break or else he will wreck the breakaway -- QST are alert to SUN tactics.
|
|
By:
Kittel dropping and Matthews out in front again.
|
|
By:
And so there goes Bling! See if Dan Martin responds?
|
|
By:
The stream is so much slower than live TV pics here CJ, but the idiots are in a commericla break, so have to stay with stream for now.
|
|
By:
I'm watching Eurosport Player, so I'm about a minute or two behind as well
|
|
By:
Difference between stream and TV is a minimum of 500 metres, was 1km earlier.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Kittel saddlebags...
|
|
By:
Surprised Barguil is not attempting to get in. De Gendt closes the gap in the KOM comp, but only by 2 points, so perhaps that's why Barguil isn't bothering, he has plenty in-hand.
|
|
By:
Pace not fast enough to drop Kittel completely, SUN need to smash it here, or esle he is sticking on.
|
|
By:
Finally, that looked like Barguil stringing it out off the front, they need to ride!
|
|
By:
SUN could be putting Kittel into deep trouble here, they are missing the opportunity, so I question their tactics actually. Not smart. Good to know they're not the sharpest knife in the cutlery draw.
 |
|
By:
They're doing it now -- bloody how long did it take for them to wake up to it?? Do they want to race against Kittel or launch Bling into Green?
|
|
By:
This is still the peloton, not a big group, Kittel and sprinters are getting a tough ride today -- break at least have some chance, now.
|
|
By:
...Break in terms of late attacks too, not only the actual breakaway involving Chavanel and De Marchi.
|
|
By:
SUN TTT...
 |
|
By:
Actually there will probably be counter attacks from the SUN-led peloton -- more splits to come -- everything set for chaos and breaks and hurting the chances of a bunch sprint. However, the bunch sprint is not completely off as yet -- still a long way to-go, obviously. But the moves are in place and that's what counts for now.
|
|
By:
BMC and DD riding with Sunweb.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Esier for them to ride and then launch their men late, then to have a bunch sprint and give it to Kittel.
|
|
By:
Still another climb to come and the SUN-led peloton are hammering it -- bunch sprint situation under pressure!
|
|
By:
They are bloody scooters -- smashing it -- the tailwind a major advantage indeed!
|
|
By:
Have you seen Griepel? I think he could have made it into the yellow jersey group?
Matthews, GVA, EBH are all there. Bouhanni, Kittel, Groenewegen behind. Where are Griepel, Colbrelli, Swift & Degenkolb? |
|
By:
Gorilla is in -- Kittel moving closer...
|
|
By:
Thhis next climb cannot come soon enough -- but Kittel looking bad here...
|
|
By:
1min behind for Kittel...
|
|
By:
Oh-oh -- SUN-led peloton losing cohesion -- this won't help the situation...
|
|
By:
Sorry -- that was the group behind!
|
|
By:
Not such a bad day to watch after all
Stybar and the other QST rider surely can't last much longer and then it's all over for that group as we come to the cat.4 |