TdF 2017 Stage 13

The distance: 101kms.

Nearly half of the stage will be downhill.

I have never seen a stage of this short distance at the GT level before, however I think it is possible to know what to expect. The 2016 Vuelta stage 15 was only 119kms long, and the closest distance in the Tour to this stage was in stage 20 of the 2015 edition, which was just 111kms long.

In terms of the amount of climbs, the Vuelta stage appears to be the most similar to this stage with three categorised ascents, however unlike the Vuelta stage which ended in a summit finish, this stage ends with a long descent into a power-descent into the finish, and also the climbs are much harder here than in the Vuelta stage. Nevertheless, in that stage Contador attacked early and formed a 14-man breakaway which included Quintana and caught-out Froome, his teammates scrambling somewhere in back. MOV realised SKY's problem and took advantage by keeping the pace high and isolating Froome from his team, even though Quintana had a teammate with him. Brambilla won from Quintana, and Quintana held a gap of about 2mins to the GC riders.

In the 2015 Tour stage a 4-man breakaway were allowed to go up the road with a gap of up to 8mins, and Pinot eventually went solo to win. A second group went on the main middle climb, but they were brought back by ALM. Again, like the Vuelta stage, this stage ended with a summit finish on Alpe d'Huez, though. Pinot held about a 1:30 gap to the GC riders.

What both stages have in common is the explosive nature of the racing and the substantial gap which can be held by a successful breakaway/attacking rider, and that is very-much what we should expect for this stage, too. This suggests that much like the attacks we see from the start of the stage by those riders looking to get into the day's breakaway, the GC riders are likely to attack each other from the very start of the stage as they look to find vulnerabilities (inattention and fatigue) in their rivals.

This is likely to be a hard stage in terms of a battle-of-attrition, especially amongst the GC men, but I think the descents and particularly the long descent to the finish will have a major influence on the tactics and strategy of the riders involved and therefore the outcome for both stage honours and GC movements.

With Aru in Yellow and essentially unable to defend the jersey with a strong team performance, and ALM signalling their intentions for the win in Paris with Bardet as far back as stage 9 but only getting the result they were seeking on yesterday's stage with Bardet's win, it can be the case that the way to understand the situation on GC (cheers bb66 for your inspiration) is that ALM will effectively ride like they are already in Yellow with Bardet, which will in a way inadvertently boost AST's hold on Yellow with Aru, at least against SKY. My analysis therefore suggests that it is like ALM and AST are in a situation where they have unintentionally united against SKY in an alliance, simply by sharing a common interest in the GC win and being within reach of it. They won't necessarily ride as one, but they will ride against the SKY and that is their common rival because of Froome's strength in the ITT, still to come on the penultimate stage and where Froome will have approximately 30-50secs on Bardet/Aru.     

ALM have shown they have the team to throw flooding numbers at the problem which is SKY, and as we saw they nearly pulled it off with Bardet on stage 9, when the talented FRA rider attacked Froome on the dodgy descent, extended along the flats to easily catch and pass Barguil in the lead, and just fail with 5kms remaining.

Finally, I think ALM have shown that they have what it takes to not only formulate and employ a grand stratagem against their chief rivals in SKY, but that they also have the riders to make it work. They will therefore be looking to launch Bardet off the summit of the final climb, the Mur de Peguere, since Bardet is an excellent descender and will find it easier to hold a race-winning gap along what then becomes a power-descent. To do that, and fitting with the aggressive nature to the start of the race we are likely to witness, I would expect ALM to throw large number into/at the breakaway whilst committing Bardet to sit in and around Froome's wheel. In addition, this stage comes at a perfect time for Aru, and I think that whilst he is being discounted in both the market and with the Books (25/1 SP out to 33/1 and 50s on here) there is no valid reason why he should be seen as inferior. Yes, he has a weak team in comparison to his two main rivals, however Aru is climbing beautifully, can descend very well and has an equal chance to win this stage to Bardet.

In conclusion; unless a really hard rider like Cummings can go out with a committed effort from the break, (Cummings won't because he'll still be recovering from yesterday's stage) and I mean burying himself with some 75kms remaining of the stage, then I think the more likely outcome is fisticuffs from the GC men from the outset and them fighting for the stage win and positions on the GC. I don't think we will get two races, this stage is too short and much too-hyped to expect that the status-quo will ensue and the peloton will sit back by allowing the break a big gap. Plus, the weakness of AST will be seen as a vulnerability worthy of being exploited by multiple attacks from their rivals, and that will have to happen early, and that is consistent with these short stages as those mentioned above.

Having said all that, I think Calmejane (25/2 SP into 20/1) and Benoot (11/1 SP into 14/1) will both be salivating over another opportunity over a stage they would ordinarily consume over morning training, so am looking to keep those two riders safe, but I cannot go past the value of Aru, and another strong ride by Bardet.