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11 Jul 17 09:17
Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,589 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
178km flat stage for the sprinters with two cat.4 climbs to break it up a bit. The 2.1km climb @ 5.6% coming at km 138.5 is some 40kms from the finish and the breakaway would require favourable conditions to hold it or keep it close over such a distance. Unlikely, but not out of the question since we see it on a regular basis in the cobbled classics.
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Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 9:56 AM BST
Kittel has been improving from a ridiculously short 57/100 at SP with the Books, into 83/100 throughout the Rest Day, but much better on here at 6/5. He continues to get pushed out, and I think he might finish on or around 5/4 for the start of the stage. He was 5/4 at SP on the first sprint stage 2, so unlikely to be better than that at the start for here.

Kristoff has enjoyed some support, 10/1 at SP into 13/2, although he is much better on here.

Bling has also attracted some interest, 18/1 at SP into 14/1, and whilst much better on here he is not as popular as with the Books.
Report Desmond Orchard July 11, 2017 10:45 AM BST
I quite fancy EBH today. Showed good form when unluckily touched off by Kittel on S7. He was left in front far too early and showed great strength not to get swamped.
I know we are coming off the back of a rest day, but the weekend must've taken it out of the really big guys like Kittel, Gorilla and Kristoff - brutal stages - whereas EBH is more of an all-rounder. Significant negative is Renshaw being out, a lot will fall on Bernie to ensure that he doesn't get dropped off too soon again. Still EW at the prices, it's not too expensive to find out.
Obviously Kittel is a worthy favourite, but if he's going to get beaten, I think today might be the day.
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 1:01 PM BST
Majka is a non-starter on account of sustaining heavy injuries in stage 9. He didn't have a good Rest Day and the team pulled him out. 

Meanwhile, out on the road here, this two-man breakaway have opened a nie gap already and they look very smooth, however it is very early in the day and they cannot be taken seriously. Offredo is a 30yo rider from FRA with just the one win at PCT level, and Gesbert is a 22yo PCT rider with no wins at the pro level.

Whoever was pushing out Kittel gave up at the start and he never eached the predicted price, only got 57/50, and then immediately found support in the market on here, going odds-on.

Looks like a bit of a boring stage...
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 1:03 PM BST
Good to get your thoughts Des, don't disagree with the promise of your selection, however Kittel was climbing in outstadning fashion, and I think he is in very good condition. Very hard for me to see him get beat.
Report Desmond Orchard July 11, 2017 1:14 PM BST
Oh yeah, clearly the strongest. My concern is that when we've seen utterly dominant sprinters in the recent past, it has been as much to do with the train being efficient as it has the individual.
Kittel has been winning in spite of EQS's train, who seem to be at sixes and sevens in the last 5km of most stages. It came home to roost on the stage Demare won and very nearly did so again on S7.
It could be that with Cav and Demare now absent that he just has too much for the rest, but I couldn't get involved at odds on and think he's making the market for EW players. I've added Bouhanni EW to small stakes to back up my EBH ew bet.
You're right btw SP, do something constructive and come back in three hours for the denoument, nothing else to see here.
Report padlock July 11, 2017 4:09 PM BST
Tricky sharp left turn near the finish could be kittels only problem if his team mess it up again ?
Report padlock July 11, 2017 4:10 PM BST
Sharp left turn near the finish could throw up a suprise sprinter winning ?
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 4:14 PM BST
Okay, break gone, bunch sprint on the cards.
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 4:16 PM BST
Long 500m straight will give a sprinter out of position time to reclaim.
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 4:20 PM BST
I think the Gorilla or kristoff are the only two who look like they might be capable of getting close to Kittel if he gets his position wrong again. Bouhani is hiding an illness from some reports I've come across, so would be a surprise if he wins. Talk about Groenewegen taking a big win, but I think he doesn't have the zip. Kristoff the best value, but best value is a winning price and my coin is on Kittel. Good luck to all, SP.
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 4:26 PM BST
Kittel with only two teammates -- QST still performing like amateurs!
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 4:27 PM BST
Good position at least...
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Report johnnythebull July 11, 2017 4:29 PM BST
that was a frigging demo of strength & superiority
Report padlock July 11, 2017 4:30 PM BST
Report Desmond Orchard July 11, 2017 4:32 PM BST
Shout SP. Hard to see him not winning any flat stage from here. Utterly dominant.
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 4:34 PM BST
When Kittel is in some relative good position, and he came from 10th into the stright, and has expansive road conditions to carve out his personal space, he just ramps up the speed and is simply unstoppable. Made them look second-rate, in the end, no one even close.
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 4:41 PM BST
Cheers Des, the only thing since his second win on stage 6 has been getting his price right in forthcoming sprint stages.

I hate to say it but the Books are going to go 53/100 for tomorrow, or something just as crazy, however that may backfire given the right conditions for a breakaway and the other sprinters' teams deciding to put the burden of controlling the front of the race for the entire day. Unlikely though.
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 4:43 PM BST
...burden on QST, that is, since they are riding for 2nd-place. Cool
Report SwingingPick July 11, 2017 4:44 PM BST
Anyway good night all, Pau tomorrow, gateway to the Pyrenees.
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