TJVG too good a rider not to win races. Agree with SP that he has lacked confidence, and he isn't going to be a serious GC contender. Hopefully he can find some direction for the rest of his career now.
Quintana and Nibali now must be hoping that three weeks of racing will finally crack Dumoulin because he looked stronger than them on the last climb. They have winning form over the distance, he doesn't yet.

It's all kicking off, GC teams attacking when Dumoulin returning to the back of the peleton from a natural break. Looks like the Dutch riders against the rest.

if that's true they used a natural break again, it looks ver unsportmanlike

Now saying there was a split on a descent & Dumoulin was caught out.

gap closed

Break forms on the ascent as the rejoined peloton sits up, a bit.

Peloton not really slowing, but the break looks quality.

...plus a couple of others, was mentioning the quality riders.

If the break are given a bit of ground by the super-reduced peloton, they'll come home, I believe.

See how the break are combining once at the bottom, looks like it might be 6 (in the break) versus one QST rider (on front of peloton). The break so far look comfortable together, and the quality outweighs.

Two breaks come together and it's there's, I believe, they have 7mins and will have at least 3mins by final climb.

Some good Spaniards to choose from, but I cannot consider Landa after his tactically-deficient efforts so far.

*suit

Rui Costa attacks and suddenly looks like he'll open a gap. Lol.

are you watching, monarch?

Yep. But only the last 40 mins or so.

Back to what i said yesterday. Can't begrudge him a stage win

Dumoulin looks to be limiting his losses.

imagine how close this Giro would have been without the fall of Thomas and Landa

I think Quintana requires a minimum of 22 secs on Dumoulin on tomorrow's stage. That will only give Quintana a mere 60 secs lead into the final ITT. However, since Quintana doesn't look very strong, I think he requires more like 1:40 to 2:00 minutes lead, coming out of tomorrow. Even if he gains a minute, that gives him a 1:38 lead. I believe that Dumoulin going hard in the ITT can pull that out, without even needing Quintana to have a bad day as he had in the earlier ITT. However, if Quintana does experience a bad day and Dumoulin goes ordinarily, it'll be an extra minute for Dumoulin against Quintana like earlier, and he wins the Giro by a minute, I believe.

As previously stated, Nibali is still in this, but the question comes back to Dumoulin. Will he drift off the back of tomorrow's peloton, like he did today? Much of why he struggled today was because of having to chase back on for a long way, which cost his legs, which he has said he didn't even have at the start of the race. He did maintain his losses on the final climb and in total he lost 1:09. He can again be put into difficulty tomorrow since the Monte Grappa looms early, and there is a lot of riding and the climb to Foza remaining. The descent will allow him some rest and recuperation and if MOV don't begin to inflict some damage on him on Grappa than his prospects improve.

There is a school of thought that Dumoulin's wheels are looking to come off and psychologically the Vuelta is coming back to haunt him. He did look tired today, but there is no way he cracked, I simply cannot agree with such an observation. He was just tired, just didn't have the legs, but limited losses and again comes back to fight another day. Is it getting too much for him, though? Yes, it might be getting too much for Dumoulin, but he will be hoping that MOV don't strike out early on the Grappa, and even if they do, he just has to repeat his limiting losses ride of today on the climb to Foza. Grappa is not an overly tough climb, and he does get a long descent.

On the other hand, if he is given a tough climb on the Grappa, the final climb is tough-enough to crack him, if he again has poor legs. If he cracks he is out, a broken GC GT aspirant, perhaps.

In conclusion, and taking into account that I have bigger green on Dumoulin than on Nibali and Quintana (Pinot is a loss): I still think we are seeing a developing Dumoulin, who is showing us that he can limit losses and stay in the GC race, like never before. Unless he panics or more than two factors combine to conspire against him tomorrow, such as poor legs and a tough ride on the Grappa by MOV, he should lose no more than another minute on the final climb which might be a little harder than today, but is similar in distance and if Quintana leaves his attack late, he won't gain enough.

+1:38 is good for Dumoulin on Quintana going into the ITT, I believe. Nibali and Pinot are different narratives, and since this race is all about Dumoulin, he is who I am concentrating on, but those two are still in it, particularly Nibali.

Finally, Dumoulin to maybe lose contact if MOV ramp things up toward the top of the Grappa, but rejoin on the descent and keep his legs for the final climb in order to limit losses by losing no more than a minute and being 1:38 going into the ITT.

The ultimate question being asked of Dumoulin is: Who is Dumoulin? Is he a fighter with a big heart, or a man previously psychologically-scarred by the Vuelta? After the stage today when surrounded by a crowd of reporters, whilst on the rollers and answering questions, he still looked and sounded confident to me, but his trash-talking before today's stage is not the way he should be approaching his racing, much better to show he has the heart and courage to fight like a lion, and secure his place as a worthy GT contender.