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Another long stage with a hard climb right at the end and then another very steep wall that hardly even shows on the profile! Looks like another breakaway. You'd think we'd be looking for a powerful rider who can escape on the flat but also a good enough climber to drop his rivals on the late lumps. Astana might fancy getting a couple of Nibali's super domestiques in the break here to see if they can salvage something from a disastrous GT. Otherwise Ulissi is probably a decent shout here.
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Okay, so a massive 24 rider break on the road -- they've got the stage as the peloton is not interested -- and it consists of multiple riders from multiple teams:
Pavel Brutt TKS Jay McCarthy TKS Ivan Rovny TKS Moreno Moser CAN Ramunas Navardauskas CAN Sacha Modolo LAM Matej Mohoric LAM Stefan "King" Kung BMC Daniel Oss BMC Gianfranco Zilioli NIP Genki Yamamoto NIP Gianluca Brambilla EQS Matteo Trentin EQS Nikias Arndt TGA Albert Timmer TGA Axel Domont ALM Davide Malacarne AST Olivier Le Gac FDJ Andrey Solomennikov GAZ Roger Kluge IAM Pim Ligthart LTS Christian Knees SKY Julen Amezqueta Moreno STH |
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Matteo Busato is the 24-rider, which would give STH two riders also, but waiting on confirmation...
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The Pramartino climb 20kms from the finish looks to be the staging grounds. Looks quite punchy, however the descent might also give a daredevil descender an opportunity to get back on as will the downhill portion to the line give the TT specialist an opportunity to work to get back on also. I think we're looking at another selection by the climbers and classics riders on the climb, but there looks to be enough road for more to get involved.
Brambilla and Moser the two favourites is correct, but Moser is too short taking into account the likelihood he will have company. Ligthart is one who is under-valued at 28/1 on here. He might be capable of rejoining if in the right company and can be very strong in the style of Tom Jelte Slagter, so not to be discounted. |
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A chasing group of Oss, Kung, Navardauskas, Ligthart, Kluge, Trentin and Rovny would be capable of chasing down Brambilla and Moser and maybe one or two other riders on good sensations on the climb, in fact Ligthart being one.
Going to have a look at them closer and see who looks to want to fight. |
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Brambilla certainly ticks all the boxes in that he will be capable of getting over the climb with an attack, then descend fast and be strong to the line -- looks like a genuine hardman, however I'm thinking it might come back together in the final 6-9kms in a group which is about halved to 10 riders.
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Don't forget as mc1 alludes to in his post, with 2.5km to go the road kicks up at about 13% for 500m (including 250m @ 16%!) then a short descent and flat final km.
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Moser is going to be good up this climb so he is likely to be trading much shorter than the 7s and 5s being matched, with the view of laying some back after he goes over the top in first position.
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Yes nugg, that definitely brings back the likes of Moser, meaning the others will have to attack him prior, which is why 4/1 or better is good value on Moser, I believe. Should be trading much shorter, later.
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So, essentially Moser and Brambilla have two bites of the cherry here.
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Moser did look short initially, but I think the market might panic when he attacks on the Pramartino climb, on closer inspection, and if the market doesn't than he has that second bite where the market will eventually want him covered, so one or another -- all things being equal --he should be going Evens at some point from 4/1, presently.
The danger is Brambilla getting a gap on the climb, consolidating on the descent, and going "hardman" solo, where he will fatigue on the climb 2kms from the finish. |
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Kung down...
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Mohoric off the front of the break, 21yo with good results as a Junior including WC in 2012 and 2013, but he isn't capable of climbing from what I can see.
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Moser not a bad descender from what I remember, so he should be capable of preventing Brambilla from extending the gap on the descent.
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Hopefully McCarthy has a go and isn't working for Rovny here.
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Le Gac and Brutt off the front -- no concerns after opening a gap quickly.
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Rovny came in well on stage 10 nugg, McCarthy couldn't cope on Willunga Hill at TDU earlier in the season, would want him over McCarthy.
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Brutt killing himself!
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Funny how Tinkoff had a man in the break yesterday and 3 in the break today but had no one there on stage 16 to chase when Majka was caught in the Chaves group behind the leaders.
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Was that Arndt or Timmer giving it a go?
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...Is kapoot for the stage.
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TKS had given up on Majka by then, protecting their men for stage wins.
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lol, 2 local bookies didn't have Moser listed today after being listed every other stage
lucky there is always the bf exchange |
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Majka a massive disappointment here, big questions being asked about his GC credentials going forward. As I think you alluded to earlier?
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That's what you call ancient cobbles…
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No, just bad from his team or they dont really care about his gc race. Majka did come 3rd in the last grand tour.
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Navardauskas doing solid work for Moser that has confirmed his good sensations.
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They don't care, they've laid down the law for Majka for stages 19/20 to be competitive or get a stage win and that's all. And that was a while ago.
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Anyway, double feature coming up, stage win and GC fun.
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McCarthy getting the nod today by TKS it looks like, I don't like him, though.
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Moser 4/1 into 51/20 -- nice move, but I'm waiting for Evens to pay for Ligthart and Brambilla as a saver.
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Very even climbing so far...
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Brambilla looks as strong as when he won, needs to be covered, I believe.
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Moser and Brambilla are the only tw left on the climb. Brambilla driving, Moser struggling a bit.
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All green thanks to Moser.
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Even if I went a bit early, which was a tad silly, he'll stick with Brambilla or get back on on the descent. 2/1 presently, he will go Evens, I believe.
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Even if I went a bit early, which was a tad silly, he'll stick with Brambilla or get back on on the descent. 2/1 presently, he will go Evens, I believe.
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Not much liquidity though.
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Back to the leaders please...
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Thank you! Moser trying things -- can't believe this 2/1 is still available.
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