*Giro d'Italia - Stage 13*

PALMANOVA > CIVIDALE DEL FRIULI Friday 20 May 2016 (170 km)

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The phoney was is over, the sprinters have gone home and now we will start to examine the character of the leading contenders.  There are 4 tough categorised climbs on this 170km long stage, 2 x Cat 2 and 2 x Cat 1s. This is a remarkably tough mountain stage and we are sure to see people crack today. They start off in Palmanova, an amazing old Venetian fort. The peloton head North towards the Julian Alps, with the first 40km being pretty flat and containing the first intermediate sprint. Once they get to the hills the perform a giant sideways figure of 8. First they head out towards the Slovenian border where they hit the first two climbs, before coming round South then back West and towards Udine, before turning north again, hitting the third and fourth climbs of the day as they come back round East and then South towards their starting point again.

The first climb is the Cat 1 Montemaggiore. This is a absolute killer! 8.3km at 9.3% will really take its toll. Even though they will take this relatively slowly this will be very hard. What makes this harder is that the first 2.5km are only 6.6% and then the remaining 6km average over 10%. The steepest slopes come at the very end where there is a section at 15%. There is a steep descent after the climb and then they hit the uncategorised Passo San Martino. This is 2.5km at 7.5% before another long and very fast descent down into  the valley at Clodig.

There's another very steep section on the Crai, which takes them right up to the border with Slovenia. The first 4km of this Cat 2 climb average 9.7% and although the gradient eases of considerably towards the top this will again cause a lot of hurt. They get over the Crai with 90km to go, but there is a rare period of respite here. There's a descent, much easier this time, and then about 25km of flat terrain before the next challenge.

The Cima Porzus is another tough cat 1 climb! 8.75km long with an average gradient of 8.2% is hard enough but the first 1500m are not much more than false flat, and then the rest of the climb is over 9%, with steepest sections hitting 16% about 2km from the top. There's just over 30km to go at the top of the Cima Porzus, the descent is again tricky and technical with a large number of switchbacks, and we still have the final climb to go.

There's no doubt that taken in isolation, Valle is the easiest climb of the four. At 6.2km with an average gradient of 7.8% it is still a significant challenge in the context of the first 13 days of this Giro and more importantly, after three very hard climbs this could one lump too many for some. Again, the ramps at the start of the climb are easier and the upper slopes harder. There is 6km at 8.5% towards the top. From the top of the final climb there is just under 14km to go. The descent is fast on the whole, and not as technical as some of the others. The descent flattens out with about 7km to go and the final run in to Cividale Del Friuli is flat. There are a few turns on the run in and the run in is wide enough for a decent bunch finish, although the chance of getting a bunch home together on this stage is minimal.

With some horrendous looking descents the weather could play a massive part here, some of them will be treacherous if its wet. Yesterday the weather sites seemed to all agree it was going to chuck it down...and it didn't. Tomorrow looks dicey, but probably ok. That probably means it will lash it down. So we could see a real GC day tomorrow, or it could be another breakaway day. Again, it depends on the composition of the break. The break might not get going early if the sprinters want to contest the early intermediate sprint. And there's a chance that if a break does go the GC guys could let it go. None of the big teams have really exerted, yet, although there were signs that Astana were starting to get their act together on Stage 10. If one of the contenders is struggling we can expect to see them hit the afterburners and that is much more likely to see the break caught. However, I suspect that the break might make it again. Finding a contender means finding a climber who is already well down on GC. The man I had my eye on for this stage was Alessandro De Marchi. This is his training roads and it's a stage he's had his eye on since the route was announced but he's as short as 11/1 in places which is a lot less than I expected and even the 18/1 best price is not that attractive. Adam Hansen did a superb leadout for Greipel yesterday, but he was climbing brilliantly in Turkey so if he's recovered he could be a factor in a stage like this now his sprinter has gone home.