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marychain1
15 May 16 01:07
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 28,704 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
CHIANTI > CHIANTI Sunday 15 MAY 2016 (40.5 km)

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Absolutely delighted by yesterday and Brambilla in pink! What a brilliant ride. There is nothing better than a faithful domestique stepping up and proving he is ready to lead. Will he keep the jersey? A huge day awaits in the context of this tour. This windy 40.5km trek through the Chianti vinyards isn't as flat as was originally announced but this still suits the powerful time trial specialists. Despite a climb or three there's a net loss of about 200 metres on this stage and Tom Dumoulin should expect to make some serious time back after his troubles on the Strade Bianche yesterday. Whether he's in the shape to win this, or really give himself enough of a buffer over the big big favourites is another question. And we don't know what the weather will do with thunderstorms forecast.

40km is a long time trial. This is enough to create gaps of minutes between the fastest and the also rans. There are three intermediate checkpoints in this ITT. The day starts in Radda in Chianti with a slight descent before about 6km of false flat. This first sections is the flattest of the four and pacing will be extremely important in this early section. After 6km the road heads slightly downhill for the next few kilometres, almost to the first checkpoint which comes at 11.6km at Castellina in Chianti. There's a flat section after the checkpoint and then a shortish climb before a long descent of almost 10km that goes beyond the second checkpoint at Madonna Di Pietracupa. There's a 2km long climb before a similar descent before they get on to the longest climb of the day. As far as I can work out this is 4.9km at 3.7%, but the slopes towards the top are more like 5-6% as they hit the final checkpoint at Panzano in Chainti.
[img]http://images.onesite.com/community.betfair.com/user/marychain1/24cf9aada6fa8a8307e71dec3543e639.jpg?v=239400[/img
The final section of this TT will be very fast, it is all downhill to the line with few turns. They finish in Greve in Chianti and they will all be well entitled to a glass of the local plonk but who will be spraying around the fizzy stuff, and as importantly, who will be wearing pink and spraying around the fizzy pink stuff? I don't expect the climbs to make a massive difference here, they certainly aren't as steep as some we've seen and this will be won by the big engines. Cancellara has not been at full pace so far. He was in the bus yesterday for a stage that would potentially have suited him down to the ground but that was surely him saving himself for this. Dumoulin has looked amazing so far during this Grand Tour but then lost loads of time on Saturday. Did he crack? He must have, surely he wasn't saving himself for this? He said that now he reverts to plan A, but that if he is only in the form of Saturday he won't win this time trial. He may have struggled yesterday but this is his tome turf. He's favourite for the stage here and he should also regain the jersey in my eyes. Who else can feature? We saw Roglic come second to Dumoulin only by fractions of seconds in the prologue. he's untested over these sort of distances but I wouldn't be quick to rule him out here. Andrey Amador looks in the form of his life and at 40/1 he is very attractive after his 3rd place finish in the prologue. Bob Jungels is about as strong as any rider in the race so far but this is a long test and he's still very young. Personally, I'd want a bigger price than 12/1 to be backing him here, and the same goes for King Kung,  who looked super strong in the prologue and had a beautiful warm up on stage 7 riding for 20km solo out of the break in front of the sprint trains. What are the key GC battles to keep an eye on? Realistically, it's going to be almost impossible for Dumoulin to win this Giro now, even if he regains pink today. Nibali and Landa are the key guys for the jersey. Nibali will be looking to take big time v Landa here. It's a toss up between those two in the mountains but a big lead surely tilts it in Nibali's direction. His lead is currently 18 seconds. He'll be looking for at least a minute after today and if he gets it that will be tough to make back. Nibali v Zakarin. Zakarin is a superb time triallist. I honestly do not know whether Zakarin can be as effective over a TT over this sort of distance but he keeps being asked questions and keeps answering them. He's second now. If he answers the questions tomorrow he is suddenly a huge contender going into week 2 and 3. For Valverde, Chaves, Uran and Majka it's a question of limiting losses to Nibali, Zakarin and Dumoulin.

All things considered I'd have Dumoulin as a strong favourite for this stage but what worried me yesterday was he didn't just get distanced on the steep slopes but his power seemed dimmed on the smaller slopes towards the finish and even his group companions seemed to ride away from him. Based on this he's very close to Fabian Cancellara who is also below his peak based on what we have seen. However, I think it is perfectly reasonable that Cancellara saved himself on Saturday and rode in the bus to enable him to direct all his energy at this stage. He's the best TTer of this generation and he managed 8th in the prologue despite having an arse like the flag of Japan. Moreover, we're forecast storms tomorrow from 1pm onwards. He's 10th out and could miss the rain. At the prices he's worth a poke at 9/2, and it's worth a small go on the very decent time trial riders around him like Bobridge and Brandle at 3 figure prices. Those two are out in the first three. Also reckon Brambilla will surprise tomorrow, he's ridden decent time trials on these sort of up and down stages in the past. He'll lose the jersey tomorrow surely but it won't be the end of his race.
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Report marychain1 May 15, 2016 1:09 AM BST
Hmmm...here it is just in case you're interested in what Panzano in Chianti looks like
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 11:31 AM BST
I think you're on to something with Spartacus, MC. The weather however is doing a lot, there is in addition to the afternoon thunderstorms, one brewing for the morning also according to the earliest forecast, so it's going to come down to first-hand, on-the-ground information for confident wagers, however 4/1 for Spartacus at ante-post, who I agree was yesterday saving himself for today, and actually has been just parked on the back of the peloton most days in order to recover from illness -- is a fair price. If the morning shower comes down harder than the afternoon, the advantage may be lost, obviously.

I'm willing to oppose Dumoulin without laying him, I just don't think yesterday was just the white roads, it was him cracking like I have never seen before from him, and I think it'll be very hard for him to back-up here with a strong ride. He may win, however the big gaps, in this case the regaining of yesterday's losses is going to be too difficult. I don't think he can regain Pink, and whilst there is an argument for him getting back to the bus yesterday and then decompressing from what went wrong, I think he has been found out by not going to altitude prior to coming here, and may struggle.

Good luck to all,
SP
Report marychain1 May 15, 2016 12:47 PM BST
I've done Brandle, Bobridge and Spartacus
Report dom888 May 15, 2016 1:00 PM BST
@ marychain
What odds did You back brändle?
Hope there is heavy rain for you
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 1:53 PM BST
Shower lottery...Plain
Report marychain1 May 15, 2016 1:57 PM BST
Backed Brandle at 125/1 and 40s top 3.
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 2:03 PM BST
Who has a rain radar link?
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 2:09 PM BST
Is that it then? Between Roglic who went out on dry roads and Dumoulin who may go out on roads that have either 1.) dried out enough, or 2.) another passing shower hits him and the roads get wet again?
Report marychain1 May 15, 2016 2:11 PM BST
That's how I see it. As long as Dumoulin is the only other rider who goes faster than Brandle I'll be happy.
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 2:17 PM BST
I see that mate, good luck.
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 2:34 PM BST
Here is a bet I'd like to take: Ludvigsson to get booted from the race for drafting at Evens -- crazy bastard has been there for 10kms. Laugh
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 2:48 PM BST
You know a trader has a local rain radar, so following the money might be the smart move. Cool
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 2:58 PM BST
That was Tsatevich not Ludvigsson drafting, not wise to be following the graphic, and it was 25kms more like.
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 3:25 PM BST
I always thought nugget actually had a role to play on this forum, he was pretty good on occasion finding things for us off the net, at least it felt like that, a local rain radar was sorely required for this stage, however it was sound analysis by MC on account of the weather as confirmed by Roglic, you'd think Spartacus having recovered better would have nailed this course with that dry roads advantage of going out earlier.

Landa at some serious potential for cracking over this course, has gone out very hard, I believe.
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 3:33 PM BST
At least the conditions on the road are consistent for the GC contenders.
Report nugget May 15, 2016 3:34 PM BST
favourable conditions for early starters
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 3:40 PM BST
Yes, correct, MC advanced as much nearly 24 hours ago, would've been nice if you had a local rain radar link ready to-go to assist us to make some more coin. Grin
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 3:44 PM BST
Fair play to Landa, didn't look like he cracked, rode it out evenly and looks like that time will hold up quite well.
Report nugget May 15, 2016 4:15 PM BST
Brambilla gets the massive tow
Report nugget May 15, 2016 4:15 PM BST
a couple of nice gifts for him in the last two stages
Report nugget May 15, 2016 4:18 PM BST
Good to see Landa put everyone to the sword today.  He could of done with some more time-trialing km's in this race.
Report SwingingPick May 15, 2016 4:44 PM BST
Yes, well done, perfect review nugget. Silly
Report nugget May 15, 2016 5:03 PM BST
Jungels started 1'21 down on Brambilla before the stage.  At just after the half way split (22km) Jungels had already pulled back 1'06.  He only needed to beat Brambilla by 15 seconds in the final 18.2km to take the pink jersey but missed by a second.  Still can't find a split time for Jungels at the last intermediate.
Report nugget May 15, 2016 5:15 PM BST
From the last intermediate time check to the finish (6.8km)

Brambilla was faster than Nibali by 16 secs, Valverde by 15 secs and Dumoulin by 25 secs in the final 6.8km!
Report nugget May 15, 2016 5:26 PM BST
In the 11km between the 2nd and 3rd time checks (which contained all the climbing on the stage)

Brambilla was 30 secs faster than Valverde, 15 secs faster than Nibali and 12 secs faster than Landa.
Report marychain1 May 15, 2016 6:58 PM BST
Had an absolute result there. Would have been better if Brandle had come second to Cancellara but will take that!
Report marychain1 May 15, 2016 6:58 PM BST
Spartacus now abandoned, shame that such a legend of the sport is seemingly going to go into retirement with such a whimper.
Report SwingingPick May 16, 2016 8:07 PM BST
Congrats MC, 40s for a place is a highly impressive return mate.
Report SwingingPick May 17, 2016 2:55 PM BST
Here is a bet I'd like to take: Ludvigsson to get booted from the race for drafting at Evens -- crazy bastard has been there for 10kms.

That was Tsatevich not Ludvigsson drafting, not wise to be following the graphic, and it was 25kms more like.

'Katusha pulled [Tsatevich] from the race following "excessive time trial drafting" on stage 9.'

...Okay, who is paying out on that bet? Laugh
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