*Giro d'Italia - Stage 9*

CHIANTI > CHIANTI Sunday 15 MAY 2016 (40.5 km)

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Absolutely delighted by yesterday and Brambilla in pink! What a brilliant ride. There is nothing better than a faithful domestique stepping up and proving he is ready to lead. Will he keep the jersey? A huge day awaits in the context of this tour. This windy 40.5km trek through the Chianti vinyards isn't as flat as was originally announced but this still suits the powerful time trial specialists. Despite a climb or three there's a net loss of about 200 metres on this stage and Tom Dumoulin should expect to make some serious time back after his troubles on the Strade Bianche yesterday. Whether he's in the shape to win this, or really give himself enough of a buffer over the big big favourites is another question. And we don't know what the weather will do with thunderstorms forecast.

40km is a long time trial. This is enough to create gaps of minutes between the fastest and the also rans. There are three intermediate checkpoints in this ITT. The day starts in Radda in Chianti with a slight descent before about 6km of false flat. This first sections is the flattest of the four and pacing will be extremely important in this early section. After 6km the road heads slightly downhill for the next few kilometres, almost to the first checkpoint which comes at 11.6km at Castellina in Chianti. There's a flat section after the checkpoint and then a shortish climb before a long descent of almost 10km that goes beyond the second checkpoint at Madonna Di Pietracupa. There's a 2km long climb before a similar descent before they get on to the longest climb of the day. As far as I can work out this is 4.9km at 3.7%, but the slopes towards the top are more like 5-6% as they hit the final checkpoint at Panzano in Chainti.
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The final section of this TT will be very fast, it is all downhill to the line with few turns. They finish in Greve in Chianti and they will all be well entitled to a glass of the local plonk but who will be spraying around the fizzy stuff, and as importantly, who will be wearing pink and spraying around the fizzy pink stuff? I don't expect the climbs to make a massive difference here, they certainly aren't as steep as some we've seen and this will be won by the big engines. Cancellara has not been at full pace so far. He was in the bus yesterday for a stage that would potentially have suited him down to the ground but that was surely him saving himself for this. Dumoulin has looked amazing so far during this Grand Tour but then lost loads of time on Saturday. Did he crack? He must have, surely he wasn't saving himself for this? He said that now he reverts to plan A, but that if he is only in the form of Saturday he won't win this time trial. He may have struggled yesterday but this is his tome turf. He's favourite for the stage here and he should also regain the jersey in my eyes. Who else can feature? We saw Roglic come second to Dumoulin only by fractions of seconds in the prologue. he's untested over these sort of distances but I wouldn't be quick to rule him out here. Andrey Amador looks in the form of his life and at 40/1 he is very attractive after his 3rd place finish in the prologue. Bob Jungels is about as strong as any rider in the race so far but this is a long test and he's still very young. Personally, I'd want a bigger price than 12/1 to be backing him here, and the same goes for King Kung,  who looked super strong in the prologue and had a beautiful warm up on stage 7 riding for 20km solo out of the break in front of the sprint trains. What are the key GC battles to keep an eye on? Realistically, it's going to be almost impossible for Dumoulin to win this Giro now, even if he regains pink today. Nibali and Landa are the key guys for the jersey. Nibali will be looking to take big time v Landa here. It's a toss up between those two in the mountains but a big lead surely tilts it in Nibali's direction. His lead is currently 18 seconds. He'll be looking for at least a minute after today and if he gets it that will be tough to make back. Nibali v Zakarin. Zakarin is a superb time triallist. I honestly do not know whether Zakarin can be as effective over a TT over this sort of distance but he keeps being asked questions and keeps answering them. He's second now. If he answers the questions tomorrow he is suddenly a huge contender going into week 2 and 3. For Valverde, Chaves, Uran and Majka it's a question of limiting losses to Nibali, Zakarin and Dumoulin.

All things considered I'd have Dumoulin as a strong favourite for this stage but what worried me yesterday was he didn't just get distanced on the steep slopes but his power seemed dimmed on the smaller slopes towards the finish and even his group companions seemed to ride away from him. Based on this he's very close to Fabian Cancellara who is also below his peak based on what we have seen. However, I think it is perfectly reasonable that Cancellara saved himself on Saturday and rode in the bus to enable him to direct all his energy at this stage. He's the best TTer of this generation and he managed 8th in the prologue despite having an arse like the flag of Japan. Moreover, we're forecast storms tomorrow from 1pm onwards. He's 10th out and could miss the rain. At the prices he's worth a poke at 9/2, and it's worth a small go on the very decent time trial riders around him like Bobridge and Brandle at 3 figure prices. Those two are out in the first three. Also reckon Brambilla will surprise tomorrow, he's ridden decent time trials on these sort of up and down stages in the past. He'll lose the jersey tomorrow surely but it won't be the end of his race.