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17 Mar 16
15:57
Joined:
Date Joined:
11 Jul 11
At 291 kms it is the shortest edition since 2013 when over a wet course the peloton covered 245kms. Last two editions have followed a similar script with a 20+ bunch of riders involving themselves in a proper barroom brawl (straining/fracturing bunch sprint). With ideal conditions forecast for race day, I don't see why that should change this year.
**** Alex Kristoff Has followed an identical season calendar to last season with similar results albeit his no-show performance in OHN. Won this race in 2014 when teammate Paolini delivered him into a perfect position. Won't have him on this occasion, but he is a proven performer over staying distance, when just pipped by Degenkolb last season, who then franked his performance when winning Roubaix.
Very good signs most recently in Paris-Nice however, when working hard, he got brought back into the peloton with the assistance of a KAT train, on a fast climbing stage, and still held out Bling for 2nd place, easily. Went 23 months without abandoning a race before the finish, until his DNS for stage 7 at Paris-Nice.
Opened as a solid favourite at 7/2, although has eased a little. WIN ONLY.
Looks to be ticking over nicely. Packs ample staying power. The one to beat.
*** Fabian Cancellara Won this in 2008. Picked up a string of four consecutive podium results from 2011-2014. Has been winning from the start of the season in Spain, but his most impressive result came on the white gravel roads in Strade Bianche when beating Stybar in the finale after holding court with Stybar, Brambilla and Sagan in the race-winning breakaway, and actually looked like he could motor away at one point early on in the break if not for Stybar's attentiveness. Has made assurances that he is not here for a farewell ride in his final season as a pro rider, but rather he is going out to win a race he holds dearly in his career. Is fit, hungry, and has a good team. Can be counted on to fight with every last bit of strength if involved in the finale.
Opened at 20/1 and continues to shorten, now into as low as 10/1, but still available at 14/1. Likely to trade much shorter IR on here, should he find himself in a chase group or involved in a barroom brawl pack. Can win in a breakaway or in a bunch sprint. E/W.
There is a sense that he has some luck surrounding him this season after that win SB. Difficult to discount on present form and experience. Worthy of very close consideration. One of the main contenders.
** Sep Vanmarcke Surprisingly, this is his first ever start here, so will need to repeat the Manx Missile's first start over the course victory of 2009. Opened his season in the Algarve but you wouldn't know it given his uninspired performance there.
Nevertheless, next up in Paris-Nice was showing his improving condition throughout the WT stage race. Firstly, in the opening day prologue, where he held the best time for a short while. Then stage 1, where he had his nose pointed into the cross winds on the front of the peloton, before launching an attack on the uphill hellingen-like gravel road climb, and finishing off the stage well for 7th. Was then driving a three-man breakaway (mainly with S Chavanel as Delio Cruz was a passenger) for some 20kms of stage 4 before being picked up by the peloton when in sight of the finish line.
Should handle the distance with no problem whatsoever. Confirmed by the team that he will be the team's principal. Has the hardman credentials required to be involved in a barroom brawl in the finale. Opened at 150/1 and has found very good support, shortening into as low as 66//1. E/W.
May surprise with a strong showing. Handy type. Keep safe.
* Ben Swift Targeted this race last year after his 3rd place finish when on debut in 2014 showed his staying potential, and in fact got solid support from SKY throughout the day, however their combined push on the descent of the Capo Berta, whilst igniting the race some 40kms out from the finish, was premature and needless. Nevertheless, still having good legs and involved in the barroom brawl finale with the principals, his 13th place finish came as a result of being blocked for a run by choosing the wrong side to look for a gap to launch his attack.
Has got good kms in his legs and looks to have a solid condition after beginning his season on a vastly different calendar to that of last season, albeit not having won a race to date, however he was looking impressive in Paris-Nice, last start. Looks to be a back-up for SKY after Viviani. Opened 66/1 and has found support into as low as 33/1. E/W.
Solid prospects. Treat warily.
--- --- ---
Good luck to all,
SP
**** Alex Kristoff Has followed an identical season calendar to last season with similar results albeit his no-show performance in OHN. Won this race in 2014 when teammate Paolini delivered him into a perfect position. Won't have him on this occasion, but he is a proven performer over staying distance, when just pipped by Degenkolb last season, who then franked his performance when winning Roubaix.
Very good signs most recently in Paris-Nice however, when working hard, he got brought back into the peloton with the assistance of a KAT train, on a fast climbing stage, and still held out Bling for 2nd place, easily. Went 23 months without abandoning a race before the finish, until his DNS for stage 7 at Paris-Nice.
Opened as a solid favourite at 7/2, although has eased a little. WIN ONLY.
Looks to be ticking over nicely. Packs ample staying power. The one to beat.
*** Fabian Cancellara Won this in 2008. Picked up a string of four consecutive podium results from 2011-2014. Has been winning from the start of the season in Spain, but his most impressive result came on the white gravel roads in Strade Bianche when beating Stybar in the finale after holding court with Stybar, Brambilla and Sagan in the race-winning breakaway, and actually looked like he could motor away at one point early on in the break if not for Stybar's attentiveness. Has made assurances that he is not here for a farewell ride in his final season as a pro rider, but rather he is going out to win a race he holds dearly in his career. Is fit, hungry, and has a good team. Can be counted on to fight with every last bit of strength if involved in the finale.
Opened at 20/1 and continues to shorten, now into as low as 10/1, but still available at 14/1. Likely to trade much shorter IR on here, should he find himself in a chase group or involved in a barroom brawl pack. Can win in a breakaway or in a bunch sprint. E/W.
There is a sense that he has some luck surrounding him this season after that win SB. Difficult to discount on present form and experience. Worthy of very close consideration. One of the main contenders.
** Sep Vanmarcke Surprisingly, this is his first ever start here, so will need to repeat the Manx Missile's first start over the course victory of 2009. Opened his season in the Algarve but you wouldn't know it given his uninspired performance there.
Nevertheless, next up in Paris-Nice was showing his improving condition throughout the WT stage race. Firstly, in the opening day prologue, where he held the best time for a short while. Then stage 1, where he had his nose pointed into the cross winds on the front of the peloton, before launching an attack on the uphill hellingen-like gravel road climb, and finishing off the stage well for 7th. Was then driving a three-man breakaway (mainly with S Chavanel as Delio Cruz was a passenger) for some 20kms of stage 4 before being picked up by the peloton when in sight of the finish line.
Should handle the distance with no problem whatsoever. Confirmed by the team that he will be the team's principal. Has the hardman credentials required to be involved in a barroom brawl in the finale. Opened at 150/1 and has found very good support, shortening into as low as 66//1. E/W.
May surprise with a strong showing. Handy type. Keep safe.
* Ben Swift Targeted this race last year after his 3rd place finish when on debut in 2014 showed his staying potential, and in fact got solid support from SKY throughout the day, however their combined push on the descent of the Capo Berta, whilst igniting the race some 40kms out from the finish, was premature and needless. Nevertheless, still having good legs and involved in the barroom brawl finale with the principals, his 13th place finish came as a result of being blocked for a run by choosing the wrong side to look for a gap to launch his attack.
Has got good kms in his legs and looks to have a solid condition after beginning his season on a vastly different calendar to that of last season, albeit not having won a race to date, however he was looking impressive in Paris-Nice, last start. Looks to be a back-up for SKY after Viviani. Opened 66/1 and has found support into as low as 33/1. E/W.
Solid prospects. Treat warily.
--- --- ---
Good luck to all,
SP
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Morning. Hoping to catch this one live, so I'll be busying myself with the in-play prices.
Taken one pre-off bet and it's *shock horror* Arnaud Demare e/w. I did fancy Navardauskas, but it's been tipped by so many people that the price has been crushed. If he rolls in I will cry, but I can't justify taking him at the current price.
Other thoughts were Bonifazio & Oss but I'd rather take them in play.
Good luck all.
Taken one pre-off bet and it's *shock horror* Arnaud Demare e/w. I did fancy Navardauskas, but it's been tipped by so many people that the price has been crushed. If he rolls in I will cry, but I can't justify taking him at the current price.
Other thoughts were Bonifazio & Oss but I'd rather take them in play.
Good luck all.
Moreno Hofland is a non-starter.
Fabian Cancellara is my Late Mail Special. Outright E/W, and to trade on exchange.
Fabian Cancellara is my Late Mail Special. Outright E/W, and to trade on exchange.
Mar 19, 2016 -- 4:21PM, CJ70 wrote:
Matthews, Demare & Thomas down.
Anyone find it strange Demare went down in the same crash as Matthews and Thomas and out of those three riders he was the only one to get back to the front and contest the finish.
Amazing effort by Demare to get back to the front of the race let alone win. He must of been on a real good day.
Mar 20, 2016 -- 11:12AM, nugget wrote:
Mar 19, 2016 -- 3:21PM, CJ70 wrote:Matthews, Demare & Thomas down.Anyone find it strange Demare went down in the same crash as Matthews and Thomas and out of those three riders he was the only one to get back to the front and contest the finish. Amazing effort by Demare to get back to the front of the race let alone win. He must of been on a real good day.
Matthews & Thomas looked to have come down harder and into the wall via the shots we got.
Swift was caught up in the Roux crash as well, so I guess those two sprinted to get to the front while the leaders sat up and looked at each other.
Thomas rolled in 14 mins down. Surely abandon would have been easier there.
Crash happened with about 25km to go, on the approach to the 2nd last climb (the cipressa). At that point the race was really heating up as the peleton would of been going at full speed with teams trying
to get their riders to the front for the start of the climb. Any riders who were caught out in the crash were going to have to expend a lot of energy getting back to a flying peleton. Even if
they did make it back to the peleton surely the extra effort spent in the chase would cost them against some of the relatively fresher riders still in the peleton.
After the crash Demare and Matthews were shown in a small group of 4 riders trying to catch back up with the peleton. They hadn't caught the peleton before the finish of the cipressa either so
they wouldn't have got the benefit of the slipstream from the peleton on the climb. Anyway, big effort from Demare in what to me looked an improbale win. I guess with an impressive performance like that
he must be right in the mix for Roubaix.
to get their riders to the front for the start of the climb. Any riders who were caught out in the crash were going to have to expend a lot of energy getting back to a flying peleton. Even if
they did make it back to the peleton surely the extra effort spent in the chase would cost them against some of the relatively fresher riders still in the peleton.
After the crash Demare and Matthews were shown in a small group of 4 riders trying to catch back up with the peleton. They hadn't caught the peleton before the finish of the cipressa either so
they wouldn't have got the benefit of the slipstream from the peleton on the climb. Anyway, big effort from Demare in what to me looked an improbale win. I guess with an impressive performance like that
he must be right in the mix for Roubaix.
It would be interesting to see Demare's power data for the race, or even just for the Cipressa climb 
Also if Gaviria didn't crash 500m from the line (after 300km) I think the podium would of consisted of 3 of Gaviria, Sagan, Cancellara and Swift. Would of just been a very solid top-10 for Demare without much fuss.
“Demare passed us at 80km/h on the climb. I’ve never seen anything like that before. I was on Tosatto’s wheel and saw it very clearly. Demare was hanging onto the right of the team car. It’s disgusting!”
If Demare didn't get held up in the first crash he would of attacked on the poggio and soloed away for a glorius win.
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