*Milan-San Remo* Saturday 19th March

At 291 kms it is the shortest edition since 2013 when over a wet course the peloton covered 245kms. Last two editions have followed a similar script with a 20+ bunch of riders involving themselves in a proper barroom brawl (straining/fracturing bunch sprint). With ideal conditions forecast for race day, I don't see why that should change this year.   

****  Alex Kristoff Has followed an identical season calendar to last season with similar results albeit his no-show performance in OHN. Won this race in 2014 when teammate Paolini delivered him into a perfect position. Won't have him on this occasion, but he is a proven performer over staying distance, when just pipped by Degenkolb last season, who then franked his performance when winning Roubaix.

Very good signs most recently in Paris-Nice however, when working hard, he got brought back into the peloton with the assistance of a  KAT train, on a fast climbing stage, and still held out Bling for 2nd place, easily. Went 23 months without abandoning a race before the finish, until his DNS for stage 7 at Paris-Nice.

Opened as a solid favourite at 7/2, although has eased a little. WIN ONLY.

Looks to be ticking over nicely. Packs ample staying power. The one to beat.

*** Fabian Cancellara Won this in 2008. Picked up a string of four consecutive podium results from 2011-2014. Has been winning from the start of the season in Spain, but his most impressive result came on the white gravel roads in Strade Bianche when beating Stybar in the finale after holding court with Stybar, Brambilla and Sagan in the race-winning breakaway, and actually looked like he could motor away at one point early on in the break if not for Stybar's attentiveness. Has made assurances that he is not here for a farewell ride in his final season as a pro rider, but rather he is going out to win a race he holds dearly in his career. Is fit, hungry, and has a good team. Can be counted on to fight with every last bit of strength if involved in the finale.

Opened at 20/1 and continues to shorten, now into as low as 10/1, but still available at 14/1. Likely to trade much shorter IR on here, should he find himself in a chase group or involved in a barroom brawl pack. Can win in a breakaway or in a bunch sprint. E/W.

There is a sense that he has some luck surrounding him this season after that win SB. Difficult to discount on present form and experience. Worthy of very close consideration. One of the main contenders.

** Sep Vanmarcke Surprisingly, this is his first ever start here, so will need to repeat the Manx Missile's first start over the course victory of 2009. Opened his season in the Algarve but you wouldn't know it given his uninspired performance there.

Nevertheless, next up in Paris-Nice was showing his improving condition throughout the WT stage race. Firstly, in the opening day prologue, where he held the best time for a short while. Then stage 1, where he had his nose pointed into the cross winds on the front of the peloton, before launching an attack on the uphill hellingen-like gravel road climb, and finishing off the stage well for 7th. Was then driving a three-man breakaway (mainly with S Chavanel as Delio Cruz was a passenger) for some 20kms of stage 4 before being picked up by the peloton when in sight of the finish line.

Should handle the distance with no problem whatsoever. Confirmed by the team that he will be the team's principal. Has the hardman credentials required to be involved in a barroom brawl in the finale. Opened at 150/1 and has found very good support, shortening into as low as 66//1. E/W.

May surprise with a strong showing. Handy type. Keep safe.

* Ben Swift Targeted this race last year after his 3rd place finish when on debut in 2014 showed his staying potential, and in fact got solid support from SKY throughout the day, however their combined push on the descent of the Capo Berta, whilst igniting the race some 40kms out from the finish, was premature and needless. Nevertheless, still having good legs and involved in the barroom brawl finale with the principals, his 13th place finish came as a result of being blocked for a run by choosing the wrong side to look for a gap to launch his attack.

Has got good kms in his legs and looks to have a solid condition after beginning his season on a vastly different calendar to that of last season, albeit not having won a race to date, however he was looking impressive in Paris-Nice, last start. Looks to be a back-up for SKY after Viviani. Opened 66/1 and has found support into as low as 33/1. E/W.

Solid prospects. Treat warily.

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Good luck to all,
SP