Stage 20 » San Lorenzo de El Escorial › Cercedilla (175.8k)
Map
Profile
Here we go then - it all comes down to the might of Team Astana versus one man, in possibly the most exciting looking stage of a Grand Tour in living memory. However, although the overall profile looks very tough and Astana will drive a fearsome pace, I just don't see how Aru can put time in Dumoulin on this stage.
It's the last chance to make time today, the grand finale. And what a stage this is. We have four category 1 climbs in the Sierra de Guadarrama mountains North of Madrid. We start in San Lorenzo de El Escorial, North West of Madrid, and quickly head North into the hills. The route roughly comprises an out and home run over two Cat 1 climbs and a short loop, making 4 climbs in total. These climbs are long but maybe not so hard. Astana will attack like crazy, but Tom Dumoulin could not have picked 4 more suitable Cat 1 climbs if he had chosen them himself.
They head North and although the first few kms are flat they soon start to climb once they hit the town of Guadarramaafter only 7.5km. There is a short descent at Cercedilla and then they are onto the first climb, the Cat 1 Puerto de Navacerrada. It is the descent of this climb in 135km that will be the final chance to distance rivals, but this time it will probably decide only the makeup of the morning breakaway. Like in recent days, it is likely that this break will be strong and numerous. The climb itself is 9.4km with an average gradient of 6.6% and a maximum gradient of 11.25%. There is a plateau on the top before a long descent into Rascafría. There is very little flat before they hit the second Cat 1 climb, the Puerto de la Morcuera. This is a longer but shallower climb, 11.4km at 5.4%, and this one has a maximum gradient of 8.5%. Astana will surely try and maintain a decent pace over these two climbs to try and drop Dumoulin's team mates, but it is difficult to see Aru trying something this far out. There is then a tricky descent, which the riders will have to take on the way home as the penultimate climb. They then have a loop round and they take the same two climbs from the other side.
Puerto de la Morcuera on the return is hard, and we can expect the pace already to be high at this stage. This is 10.4km @ 6.6% average with the steepest slopes of any of the 4 climbs today, with maximum gradients of 9.5% and another patch of nearly 10% near the top. This is a fairly steady climb overall though and it will be tough for Dumoulin to drop Aru here. The descent will be quickly taken and there is a bit of rough and rugged terrain before the final climb. The final climb is the Puerto de Cotos, which they descended after taking the first climb of the day, the Puerto de Navacerrada. Although this is the 4th Cat 1 climb of the day, none of them have been that hard and this will be no different. It has a length of 11km with an average gradient of 5.3%. The climb starts fairly easily, not getting above 7% for the first 5km, but then gets slightly harder. Having said that, it is never anything more than steady. Even if this was a summit finish it is doubtful whether Astana and Aru would have a serious chance of making time on this climb given the nature of the lack of severe gradients, and if they are going to beat Dumoulin it will be due to the overall profile of this stage rather than the last climb. Moreover, there is still 11km to go at the summit of the Cotos for Dumoulin to get back on if he is dropped, and the rest is all downhill.
Any time gained over the red jersey on the final km of the Cotos will have to be defended on the descent. To get an idea of this descent have another look at the climb of the Puerto de Navacerrada, it starts off fairly steep, with an initial gradient of 11% followed by 4km with an average of 8.5%. After this it eases right off, and the finale is just a modest descent. There is then a very short uphill ramp at the line. The descending finishes at 800m to go, then there is about 500-600m of false flat before the last 200m ramp up at about 7-8%. Unless Dumoulin completely bonks on the climb or crashes on the descent, it is very hard for Aru to gain the time needed today, and ramp at the end is too short to be of consequence.
I see another breakaway taking down the stage. Again, this will suit Dumoulin down to the ground as all the time bonuses will be gone. Astana will have to attack, but with only 7 men it will be difficult for them to drive a hard pace and Dumoulin can always rely on other teams protecting their GC places to ride. Realistically, there may only be two places Aru can make the necessary time today. The first is by going long on the penultimate climb, the second pass of Puerto de la Morcuera with its consistent ramps of around 9% near the top. This will be very hard. If Astana can get men in the break, then drive a fierce pace and Aru can bridge to it that could cause problems but with men in the break it will be even harder for Astana to drive a fast pace. The second chance for Aru is the final descent, but in reality it is not steep enough in the final few kilometres for Aru to get away and stay away unless Dumoulin has a mechanical or crash. Dumoulin should be able to cover all moves, and retain the jersey moving into the final stage. In terms of winners, look again for breakaway riders.
I'm going to miss this unfortunately so will watch on sunday morning. I think the seconds Aru lost today were huge. Giant stronger than Astana when they really needed to be. That plus his crash means he's Aru is really up against it. He needs to forget everything else and just try to win the stage. IF that happens and Dumoulin finishes close enough to keep the jersey then TD deserves to win
I'm going to miss this unfortunately so will watch on sunday morning. I think the seconds Aru lost today were huge. Giant stronger than Astana when they really needed to be. That plus his crash means he's Aru is really up against it. He needs to f
Hard for Aru to win the stage here, would be easier if Astana had a full team. Be interesting to see how the points battle between Valverde and Rodriguez influences the outcome too.
Hard for Aru to win the stage here, would be easier if Astana had a full team. Be interesting to see how the points battle between Valverde and Rodriguez influences the outcome too.
Hoping to be here for this. I've taken Landa and Dumoulin.
Astana need to keep the break at a minimum but may well send Landa up as a bridging point. I think they'll need to keep the bonus seconds alive if they are to keep all their options open. As for Dumoulin, I think if it comes to a shoot out that final ramp suits him more than Landa.
Good luck all.
Hoping to be here for this. I've taken Landa and Dumoulin.Astana need to keep the break at a minimum but may well send Landa up as a bridging point. I think they'll need to keep the bonus seconds alive if they are to keep all their options open. As f
Break of 10 out front --- Huge group of 25 chasers including Zeits and LL Sanchez @ 46 seconds --- Giant-led peloton @ 6 mins 32
So it looks like Aru's tactics will be for Landa to attack with Aru in the wheel on the steep ramps of the second climb of the Morcuera then bridge over to Zeits and Sanchez in the break/chasing group. This could be a decent plan they've hatched here.
They've already done the first climb and we have:Break of 10 out front ---Huge group of 25 chasers including Zeits and LL Sanchez @ 46 seconds---Giant-led peloton @ 6 mins 32So it looks like Aru's tactics will be for Landa to attack with Aru in the w
Ruben Plaza (LAM) Andrey Amador + Fran Ventoso + José Joaquín Rojas + Giovanni Visconti (MOV) Pello Bilbao + David Arroyo + José Gonçalves (CJR) Moreno Moser + Alex Howes + Joe Dombrowski (TCG) Jasper De Buyst + Adam Hansen + Jelle Vanendert (LTS) Nelson Oliveira + Valerio Conti (LAM) Eduard Vorganov + Alberto Losada (KAT) Yukiya Arashiro + Romain Sicard (EUC) Kevin Reza + Kenny Elissonde (FDJ) Sergio Henao + Nicolas Roche (SKY) Carlos Quintero + Alex Cano (COL) Luis León Sánchez + Andrey Zeits (AST) Alessandro de Marchi + Amael Moinard (BMC) Haimar Zubeldia (TFR) Matteo Montaguti (ALM) George Bennett (TLJ) Carlos Verona (EQS) Jaco Venter (MTN) Lawrance Warbasse (IAM) Dani Navarro (COF) Jay McCarthy (TCS)
Got one too many -- who is he?
Ruben Plaza (LAM) Andrey Amador + Fran Ventoso + José Joaquín Rojas + Giovanni Visconti (MOV)Pello Bilbao + David Arroyo + José Gonçalves (CJR) Moreno Moser + Alex Howes + Joe Dombrowski (TCG) Jasper De Buyst + Adam Hansen + Jelle Vanendert (LTS)
Out of that group I'd be looking at Sicard, Novarro, De Marchi, Dombrowski, Ellisonde, Roche & Henao to try and do something on the climb. Peak form that is, whether they are capable of that.
Out of that group I'd be looking at Sicard, Novarro, De Marchi, Dombrowski, Ellisonde, Roche & Henao to try and do something on the climb. Peak form that is, whether they are capable of that.
Yes, I think that was the better way to go for AST -- this satellite business which whilst looks imposing, hardly ever works. AST -- control the break by riding hard, therefore giving Dumoulin a test, and then have bonus secs in hand should they go for it -- much stronger tactic.
Yes, I think that was the better way to go for AST -- this satellite business which whilst looks imposing, hardly ever works. AST -- control the break by riding hard, therefore giving Dumoulin a test, and then have bonus secs in hand should they go f
Out of all that group the last one you'd want to help you on a descent is probably Nieve. Needs to get back on the descent or it's going to be all over here.
Out of all that group the last one you'd want to help you on a descent is probably Nieve. Needs to get back on the descent or it's going to be all over here.
It hardly ever works, but when it does it looks so masterful, now AST even have an anchor on the back of Dumoulin -- just to show their dominance -- fair play -- poetry!
It hardly ever works, but when it does it looks so masterful, now AST even have an anchor on the back of Dumoulin -- just to show their dominance -- fair play -- poetry!
My favourite moment of this Vuelta was when Nibali held on to the Astana team car going 100km/h, crouching down low like he thought no one would see him. Gotta love Astana.
My favourite moment of this Vuelta was when Nibali held on to the Astana team car going 100km/h, crouching down low like he thought no one would see him. Gotta love Astana.
When they say it was a team effort, it's normally so second-hand -- but today it was a team effort with an exclamation mark for AST -- dominant effort -- went perfectly to plan!
When they say it was a team effort, it's normally so second-hand -- but today it was a team effort with an exclamation mark for AST -- dominant effort -- went perfectly to plan!
nugget • September 11, 2015 5:03 PM BST Dumoulin looks convincing but it will be all hands on deck tomorrow for Astana. Not many teammates for Dumoulin tomorrow.
nugget • September 11, 2015 5:03 PM BSTDumoulin looks convincing but it will be all hands on deck tomorrow for Astana. Not many teammates for Dumoulin tomorrow.
Dumoulin had deserved a better team, with 1 teammate assisting he would have closed the gap of 12", not sure what would have happened on the last climb, but at least he would have defended top 3 I suppose.
I hope Landa can win a GT with SKY doing better than Porte.
Dumoulin had deserved a better team, with 1 teammate assisting he would have closed the gap of 12", not sure what would have happened on the last climb, but at least he would have defended top 3 I suppose. I hope Landa can win a GT with SKY doing bet
marychain1 12 Sep 15 12:56 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 27,677 | Blogger: marychain1's blog They've already done the first climb and we have:
Break of 10 out front --- Huge group of 25 chasers including Zeits and LL Sanchez @ 46 seconds --- Giant-led peloton @ 6 mins 32
So it looks like Aru's tactics will be for Landa to attack with Aru in the wheel on the steep ramps of the second climb of the Morcuera then bridge over to Zeits and Sanchez in the break/chasing group. This could be a decent plan they've hatched here.
Just watched it. Didn't find out result in advance but feel totally gutted for TD. Astana handed Giant a lesson in tactics there. And TD just didn't quite have enough.
marychain1 12 Sep 15 12:56 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 27,677 | Blogger: marychain1's blogThey've already done the first climb and we have:Break of 10 out front ---Huge group of 25 chasers including Zeits and LL Sanchez @ 46 seconds---Giant-le