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marychain1
11 Sep 15 17:04
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
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Stage 20  »  San Lorenzo de El Escorial  ›  Cercedilla   (175.8k)

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Here we go then - it all comes down to the might of Team Astana versus one man, in possibly the most exciting looking stage of a Grand Tour in living memory. However, although the overall profile looks very tough and Astana will drive a fearsome pace, I just don't see how Aru can put time in Dumoulin on this stage.

It's the last chance to make time today, the grand finale. And what a stage this is. We have four category 1 climbs in the Sierra de Guadarrama mountains North of Madrid. We start in San Lorenzo de El Escorial, North West of Madrid, and quickly head North into the hills. The route roughly comprises an out and home run over two Cat 1 climbs and a short loop, making 4 climbs in total. These climbs are long but maybe not so hard. Astana will attack like crazy, but Tom Dumoulin could not have picked 4 more suitable Cat 1 climbs if he had chosen them himself.


They head North and although the first few kms are flat they soon start to climb once they hit the town of Guadarramaafter only 7.5km. There is a short descent at Cercedilla and then they are onto the first climb, the Cat 1 Puerto de Navacerrada. It is the descent of this climb in 135km that will be the final chance to distance rivals, but this time it will probably decide only the makeup of the morning breakaway. Like in recent days, it is likely that this break will be strong and numerous. The climb itself is 9.4km with an average gradient of 6.6% and a maximum gradient of 11.25%. There is a plateau on the top before a long descent into Rascafría. There is very little flat before they hit the second Cat 1 climb, the Puerto de la Morcuera. This is a longer but shallower climb, 11.4km at 5.4%, and this one has a maximum gradient of 8.5%. Astana will surely try and maintain a decent pace over these two climbs to try and drop Dumoulin's team mates, but it is difficult to see Aru trying something this far out. There is then a tricky descent, which the riders will have to take on the way home as the penultimate climb. They then have a loop round and they take the same two climbs from the other side.


Puerto de la Morcuera on the return is hard, and we can expect the pace already to be high at this stage. This is 10.4km @ 6.6% average with the steepest slopes of any of the 4 climbs today, with maximum gradients of 9.5% and another patch of nearly 10% near the top. This is a fairly steady climb overall though and it will be tough for Dumoulin to drop Aru here. The descent will be quickly taken and there is a bit of rough and rugged terrain before the final climb. The final climb is the Puerto de Cotos, which they descended after taking the first climb of the day, the Puerto de Navacerrada. Although this is the 4th Cat 1 climb of the day, none of them have been that hard and this will be no different. It has a length of 11km with an average gradient of 5.3%. The climb starts fairly easily, not getting above 7% for the first 5km, but then gets slightly harder. Having said that, it is never anything more than steady. Even if this was a summit finish it is doubtful whether Astana and Aru would have a serious chance of making time on this climb given the nature of the lack of severe gradients, and if they are going to beat Dumoulin it will be due to the overall profile of this stage rather than the last climb. Moreover, there is still 11km to go at the summit of the Cotos for Dumoulin to get back on if he is dropped, and the rest is all downhill.


Any time gained over the red jersey on the final km of the Cotos will have to be defended on the descent. To get an idea of this descent have another look at the climb of the Puerto de Navacerrada, it starts off fairly steep, with an initial gradient of 11% followed by 4km with an average of 8.5%. After this it eases right off, and the finale is just a modest descent. There is then a very short uphill ramp at the line. The descending finishes at 800m to go, then there is about 500-600m of false flat before the last 200m ramp up at about 7-8%. Unless Dumoulin completely bonks on the climb or crashes on the descent, it is very hard for Aru to gain the time needed today, and ramp at the end is too short to be of consequence.

I see another breakaway taking down the stage. Again, this will suit Dumoulin down to the ground as all the time bonuses will be gone. Astana will have to attack, but with only 7 men it will be difficult for them to drive a hard pace and Dumoulin can always rely on other teams protecting their GC places to ride. Realistically, there may only be two places Aru can make the necessary time today. The first is by going long on the penultimate climb, the second pass of Puerto de la Morcuera with its consistent ramps of around 9% near the top. This will be very hard. If Astana can get men in the break, then drive a fierce pace and Aru can bridge to it that could cause problems but with men in the break it will be even harder for Astana to drive a fast pace. The second chance for Aru is the final descent, but in reality it is not steep enough in the final few kilometres for Aru to get away and stay away unless Dumoulin has a mechanical or crash. Dumoulin should be able to cover all moves, and retain the jersey moving into the final stage. In terms of winners, look again for breakaway riders.
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Report GoBallistic September 12, 2015 1:46 AM BST
I'm going to miss this unfortunately so will watch on sunday morning. I think the seconds Aru lost today were huge.  Giant stronger than Astana when they really needed to be.  That plus his crash means he's Aru is really up against it.  He needs to forget everything else and just try to win the stage.  IF that happens and Dumoulin finishes close enough to keep the jersey then TD deserves to win
Report marychain1 September 12, 2015 9:28 AM BST
Hard for Aru to win the stage here, would be easier if Astana had a full team. Be interesting to see how the points battle between Valverde and Rodriguez influences the outcome too.
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 9:48 AM BST
Hoping to be here for this. I've taken Landa and Dumoulin.

Astana need to keep the break at a minimum but may well send Landa up as a bridging point. I think they'll need to keep the bonus seconds alive if they are to keep all their options open. As for Dumoulin, I think if it comes to a shoot out that final ramp suits him more than Landa.

Good luck all.
Report marychain1 September 12, 2015 12:56 PM BST
They've already done the first climb and we have:

Break of 10 out front
---
Huge group of 25 chasers including Zeits and LL Sanchez @ 46 seconds
---
Giant-led peloton @ 6 mins 32

So it looks like Aru's tactics will be for Landa to attack with Aru in the wheel on the steep ramps of the second climb of the Morcuera then bridge over to Zeits and Sanchez in the break/chasing group. This could be a decent plan they've hatched here.
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 2:10 PM BST
Break have this 11:32.

Fancy Roche but I'm not sure I fancy the price.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 2:21 PM BST
I agree -- break are in!
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 2:58 PM BST
Ruben Plaza (LAM)
Andrey Amador + Fran Ventoso + José Joaquín Rojas + Giovanni Visconti (MOV)
Pello Bilbao + David Arroyo + José Gonçalves (CJR)
Moreno Moser + Alex Howes + Joe Dombrowski (TCG)
Jasper De Buyst + Adam Hansen + Jelle Vanendert (LTS)
Nelson Oliveira + Valerio Conti (LAM)
Eduard Vorganov + Alberto Losada (KAT)
Yukiya Arashiro + Romain Sicard (EUC)
Kevin Reza + Kenny Elissonde (FDJ)
Sergio Henao + Nicolas Roche (SKY)
Carlos Quintero + Alex Cano (COL)
Luis León Sánchez + Andrey Zeits (AST)
Alessandro de Marchi + Amael Moinard (BMC)
Haimar Zubeldia (TFR)
Matteo Montaguti (ALM)
George Bennett (TLJ)
Carlos Verona (EQS)
Jaco Venter (MTN)
Lawrance Warbasse (IAM)
Dani Navarro (COF)
Jay McCarthy (TCS)

Got one too many -- who is he? Plain
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:01 PM BST
Big chainring for Plaza -- not slowing down!
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 3:03 PM BST
Out of that group I'd be looking at Sicard, Novarro, De Marchi, Dombrowski, Ellisonde, Roche & Henao to try and do something on the climb. Peak form that is, whether they are capable of that.
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 3:04 PM BST
Astana now on the front. Can't help feel they've missed a trick by ruling out the bonus seconds.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:08 PM BST
Yes, I think that was the better way to go for AST -- this satellite business which whilst looks imposing, hardly ever works. AST -- control the break by riding hard, therefore giving Dumoulin a test, and then have bonus secs in hand should they go for it -- much stronger tactic.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:08 PM BST
118 kms solo so far for Plaza -- 50 kms remaining -- starting to crack, now!
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 3:13 PM BST
Wow. Aru has a gap
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:13 PM BST
Dumoulin no panic on the toughest test for him today!
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 3:17 PM BST
No Meintjes or Valverde? Rest of the GC boys together.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:17 PM BST
9.8 kms at 6.7% -- if they couldn't drop Dumoulin there, unlikely to drop him on the easier 10kms at 5.6% final climb of the day, imo.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:18 PM BST
Yes, significant selection there in that GC group.
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 3:18 PM BST
Wonder if that first gap was Dumoulin being taken by surprise by the attack.
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 3:20 PM BST
Gah. Ad break just as Landa pulls off.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:21 PM BST
Dumoulin distanced, but no panic and Aru going hard...
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:22 PM BST
Dumoulin now in panic as Landa sets off the GC group and Dumoulin left by himself!
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 3:22 PM BST
Timing Cry
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:23 PM BST
20 secs to Dumoulin -- body language not very good but a long descent to come...
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 3:28 PM BST
Out of all that group the last one you'd want to help you on a descent is probably Nieve. Needs to get back on the descent or it's going to be all over here.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:35 PM BST
AST now with 2 teammates for Aru -- looks like their tactic at the start of the day is working...
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:35 PM BST
+3
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 3:39 PM BST
So close to getting back but now gone. How much has Aru taken out of himself in those attacks?

Looks all over, but it's the Vuelta so you never know.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:41 PM BST
Aru put in a lot, but it's all psychological now -- he has teammates and a great gap -- Game Over!
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:44 PM BST
Purito to attack AST and Aru on the final climb! Cool
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 3:47 PM BST
With all that excitement I forgot about Plaza up front on his own.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:50 PM BST
I haven't! Grin
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 3:56 PM BST
Nieve sticks the boot in! Plain
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 4:02 PM BST
It hardly ever works, but when it does it looks so masterful, now AST even have an anchor on the back of Dumoulin -- just to show their dominance -- fair play -- poetry!
Report nugget September 12, 2015 4:02 PM BST
My favourite moment of this Vuelta was when Nibali held on to the Astana team car going 100km/h, crouching down low like he thought no one would see him. Gotta love Astana.
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 4:03 PM BST
Quintana off with Majka following. Wonder if J-Rod can do anything.

Agree on Astana tactics, I thought they were mad, but they've worked.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 4:05 PM BST
Purito missing some motivation today looks like.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 4:13 PM BST
Where was this group when Dumoulin needed them?
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 4:13 PM BST
Bizarre tactics by Katusha. I guess J-Rod just doesn't have it, so happy to sit and race for second.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 4:14 PM BST
KAT helping AST for Purito with Majka up the road potentially stealing his podium place...
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 4:16 PM BST
* 2nd step, that is.
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 4:16 PM BST
Not sure why he didn't try going with them. Try to win instead of try to protect 2nd.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 4:17 PM BST
Fair point -- no legs or inattention -- now it just looks desperate.
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 4:24 PM BST
Well done to Plaza never thought he'd get anywhere near the finish on his own.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 4:28 PM BST
180 kms solo for Plaza is a massive effort -- there have been a few long-range wins with Oliveira on stage 13 and yesterday on stage 19 Gougeard.
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 4:30 PM BST
When they say it was a team effort, it's normally so second-hand -- but today it was a team effort with an exclamation mark for AST -- dominant effort -- went perfectly to plan!
Report nugget September 12, 2015 4:32 PM BST
nugget • September 11, 2015 5:03 PM BST
Dumoulin looks convincing but it will be all hands on deck tomorrow for Astana.  Not many teammates for Dumoulin tomorrow.
Report nugget September 12, 2015 4:37 PM BST
I think if Majka would of contributed a bit more in his group he could of got 2nd...
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 4:41 PM BST
118 kms to go for Plaza, that was, my apologies.
Report CJ70 September 12, 2015 4:46 PM BST
Slight tear in the eye watching Dumoulin i/view I have to say.
Report bb66 September 12, 2015 5:19 PM BST
Dumoulin had deserved a better team, with 1 teammate assisting he would have closed the gap of 12", not sure what would have happened on the last climb, but at least he would have defended top 3 I suppose.

I hope Landa can win a GT with SKY doing better than Porte.
Report geoff m September 12, 2015 6:59 PM BST
I do hope ex pro Dan Lloyd managed to cash out/ lay off as he had £20 e/way on Betfair Sportsbook Domoulin @ 500s!
Report marychain1 September 13, 2015 1:43 AM BST
marychain1 12 Sep 15 12:56 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 27,677 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
They've already done the first climb and we have:

Break of 10 out front
---
Huge group of 25 chasers including Zeits and LL Sanchez @ 46 seconds
---
Giant-led peloton @ 6 mins 32

So it looks like Aru's tactics will be for Landa to attack with Aru in the wheel on the steep ramps of the second climb of the Morcuera then bridge over to Zeits and Sanchez in the break/chasing group. This could be a decent plan they've hatched here.


Just watched it. Didn't find out result in advance but feel totally gutted for TD. Astana handed Giant a lesson in tactics there. And TD just didn't quite have enough.
Report marychain1 September 13, 2015 9:58 AM BST
Starting to really dislike Astana. And Tinkoff.
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