*Vuelta a España - Stage 20* Saturday 12th September

Stage 20  »  San Lorenzo de El Escorial  ›  Cercedilla   (175.8k)

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Here we go then - it all comes down to the might of Team Astana versus one man, in possibly the most exciting looking stage of a Grand Tour in living memory. However, although the overall profile looks very tough and Astana will drive a fearsome pace, I just don't see how Aru can put time in Dumoulin on this stage.

It's the last chance to make time today, the grand finale. And what a stage this is. We have four category 1 climbs in the Sierra de Guadarrama mountains North of Madrid. We start in San Lorenzo de El Escorial, North West of Madrid, and quickly head North into the hills. The route roughly comprises an out and home run over two Cat 1 climbs and a short loop, making 4 climbs in total. These climbs are long but maybe not so hard. Astana will attack like crazy, but Tom Dumoulin could not have picked 4 more suitable Cat 1 climbs if he had chosen them himself.


They head North and although the first few kms are flat they soon start to climb once they hit the town of Guadarramaafter only 7.5km. There is a short descent at Cercedilla and then they are onto the first climb, the Cat 1 Puerto de Navacerrada. It is the descent of this climb in 135km that will be the final chance to distance rivals, but this time it will probably decide only the makeup of the morning breakaway. Like in recent days, it is likely that this break will be strong and numerous. The climb itself is 9.4km with an average gradient of 6.6% and a maximum gradient of 11.25%. There is a plateau on the top before a long descent into Rascafría. There is very little flat before they hit the second Cat 1 climb, the Puerto de la Morcuera. This is a longer but shallower climb, 11.4km at 5.4%, and this one has a maximum gradient of 8.5%. Astana will surely try and maintain a decent pace over these two climbs to try and drop Dumoulin's team mates, but it is difficult to see Aru trying something this far out. There is then a tricky descent, which the riders will have to take on the way home as the penultimate climb. They then have a loop round and they take the same two climbs from the other side.


Puerto de la Morcuera on the return is hard, and we can expect the pace already to be high at this stage. This is 10.4km @ 6.6% average with the steepest slopes of any of the 4 climbs today, with maximum gradients of 9.5% and another patch of nearly 10% near the top. This is a fairly steady climb overall though and it will be tough for Dumoulin to drop Aru here. The descent will be quickly taken and there is a bit of rough and rugged terrain before the final climb. The final climb is the Puerto de Cotos, which they descended after taking the first climb of the day, the Puerto de Navacerrada. Although this is the 4th Cat 1 climb of the day, none of them have been that hard and this will be no different. It has a length of 11km with an average gradient of 5.3%. The climb starts fairly easily, not getting above 7% for the first 5km, but then gets slightly harder. Having said that, it is never anything more than steady. Even if this was a summit finish it is doubtful whether Astana and Aru would have a serious chance of making time on this climb given the nature of the lack of severe gradients, and if they are going to beat Dumoulin it will be due to the overall profile of this stage rather than the last climb. Moreover, there is still 11km to go at the summit of the Cotos for Dumoulin to get back on if he is dropped, and the rest is all downhill.


Any time gained over the red jersey on the final km of the Cotos will have to be defended on the descent. To get an idea of this descent have another look at the climb of the Puerto de Navacerrada, it starts off fairly steep, with an initial gradient of 11% followed by 4km with an average of 8.5%. After this it eases right off, and the finale is just a modest descent. There is then a very short uphill ramp at the line. The descending finishes at 800m to go, then there is about 500-600m of false flat before the last 200m ramp up at about 7-8%. Unless Dumoulin completely bonks on the climb or crashes on the descent, it is very hard for Aru to gain the time needed today, and ramp at the end is too short to be of consequence.

I see another breakaway taking down the stage. Again, this will suit Dumoulin down to the ground as all the time bonuses will be gone. Astana will have to attack, but with only 7 men it will be difficult for them to drive a hard pace and Dumoulin can always rely on other teams protecting their GC places to ride. Realistically, there may only be two places Aru can make the necessary time today. The first is by going long on the penultimate climb, the second pass of Puerto de la Morcuera with its consistent ramps of around 9% near the top. This will be very hard. If Astana can get men in the break, then drive a fierce pace and Aru can bridge to it that could cause problems but with men in the break it will be even harder for Astana to drive a fast pace. The second chance for Aru is the final descent, but in reality it is not steep enough in the final few kilometres for Aru to get away and stay away unless Dumoulin has a mechanical or crash. Dumoulin should be able to cover all moves, and retain the jersey moving into the final stage. In terms of winners, look again for breakaway riders.