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marychain1
07 Sep 15 21:44
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
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Stage 17 (ITT)  »  Burgos  ›  Burgos   (38.7k)

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A mostly flat TT that will go a long, long way towards deciding the GC of the 2015 Vuelta. This route is largely flat and will suit the rouleurs and TT specialists. They head South at first and then do a large anti-clockwise loop. After a flat 5km, there is a slight upward gradient for the next 5km or so. Other than a climb at roughly 32km, this is the only upwards section on the course. There is then a short descent and then the next 20km are very flat, and relatively straightforward. This will allow the powerful riders to make time over the climbers. The riders come back through Burgos, before heading out to the West and right round in a clockwise loop and come back through Burgos again from the North East. The climb is at 32km, and is roughly 1km at 10%. This will help the climbers, but being such a short climb it won't allow them to pull back much time over the rouleurs.

Following this climb they go under the 5km kite and then there is a sharp descent. During this descent there are 2 very sharp turns where the riders will have to keep their wits about them. The last few kms have plenty of corners and pinch points and it will be more difficult on this section to maintain a high speed compared to the earlier sections. Overall though, despite the technical nature of the latter part, and the late climb and descent, this suits the TT specialists rather than the GC riders. In the context of the GC, this is all about how much time Dumoulin can put in to his rivals.
The GC is
Rodriguez
Aru +0.01
Majka +1.35
Dumoulin +1.51
Tom Dumoulin has done absolutely magnificently to restrict his losses over the last three stages and to be under two minutes away from the red jersey gives him an absolutely marvellous opportunity to win this Vuelta. But can he make up enough time to put him in the leader's jersey? The Tour de Suisse had a very similar time trial to this test, being 38.4km. Dumoulin won that stage, and put 1m 26 into Majka. Climbers like Thibault Pinot and Sergio Henao were 1.50 and 2.00 back respectively. That test had long flat sections but had 3 or 4 shortish, steep climbs. If anything, this track probably suits Dumoulin more, with longer flat sections and only the one serious climb. Based on that, he could easily put more than 2 minutes into Aru and Rodriguez, possibly slightly less against Majka. Dumoulin will be tired after the amazing feats he has achieved during this Grand Tour but so will his rivals. I will put my neck on the block and say that Tom Dumoulin will win this time trial, and be in red. It will be interesting to see the margins though. I think he can take a lead of about 20 seconds or so over his rivals. Majka should also be able to make time on Aru and Purito. Whether he can make enough to get into second place in the classification is highly doubtful. I would also expect Aru to make some time over Purito here, who I think is the weakest of the 4 on a TT bike. I'd love to see Purito win this Vuelta, he looks in brilliant form as well, but I fear he may be in 3rd or even 4th place after this time trial. The great thing is that this Vuelta is not over and almost whatever happens here, there should be 3 or 4 riders still in contention for the outright win and going into several intruiging stages it is all to play for and Saturday's stage should be absolutely brilliant.

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Report Happybacker September 8, 2015 9:50 PM BST
Agree with your likely time gaps MC, but I personally think Kiryienka should win the stage tomorrow.

There was only 7 seconds between Dumoulin and Kiryienka at the worlds last year, and the Sky rider should be much the fresher of the two here so I would  fancy him to reverse those placings.There is no doubt Dumoulin has been awesome here and will be super motivated tomorrow but how much is really left in his legs? Kiriyienka has been strong all year in TT's and would be close to Dumoulin if this was in the first week, but with the Dutch man having such a hard second week, surely Kiryienka should be able to get the better of him here?? Was hoping I might get bigger but 2/1 seems fair enough. It should also be said that Sky are determined to to win the team comp so every second here will be valuable for them, with that in mind will also be adding a  small ew on Thomas hopefully about 150/1.
Report Janthefish September 9, 2015 9:48 AM BST
Have to agree, Domoulin has been incredible, I was waiting for his legs to give out but how much more has he got left? I decided not to bet on this stage.
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 10:10 AM BST
I've not bet on this stage either. I'd quite like to have a couple of small each way bets on Terpstra and Van Den Broeck but the each way terms are pathetic. Most books are 1/3 1,2 and its almost definite that Kiriyenka and Dumoulin will fill the first two places and LL Sanchez is the only other real contender for the win. I think Dumoulin will probably win and I actually think 8/11 is ok but I've got Dumoulin nicely covered in the outright and I don't see the need to get more exposed. The key thing here is not the stage win it's the GC picture and if Dumoulin comes second to Kiriyenka but puts 2 minutes into Aru and Rodriguez I think he'd be delighted with that.
Report nugget September 9, 2015 2:21 PM BST
^still cant believe Froome (60/1) didn't win that stage. #nightmares

I think Oliveira, LL Sanchez and Van Den Broek will do good rides.  The rest day should help Dumoulin but I agree that others will be fresher increasing their chances of an upset.  I've had a small bet on the field v Dumoulin.
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 2:49 PM BST
Kiriyenka beaten by Bodnar
Report Happybacker September 9, 2015 2:53 PM BST
Shocked with that Kiryienka finishing 27sec down on Bodnar! Must have been some ride from the Pole, could be a good pointer for Majka!
Report nugget September 9, 2015 2:55 PM BST
Looks as if Bodnar took a shortcut in the second sector
Report nugget September 9, 2015 3:28 PM BST
Oliveira fastest time at the first check, 17sec faster than Bodnar. 
Oliveira 52sec down on Bodnar at the 2nd check.
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 3:28 PM BST
Proximity of Coppel not a good sign for Bodnar and Kiryienka
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 3:29 PM BST
Looks like Oliveira U-bended his efforts
Report bb66 September 9, 2015 3:29 PM BST
maybe more headwind in section 2 now
Report the swede September 9, 2015 3:31 PM BST
small rain at finish
Report nugget September 9, 2015 3:39 PM BST
Bodnar, nothing special in the 1st and 3rd sector.  2nd sector he went way quicker than the others.
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 3:40 PM BST
Maybe Bodnar had the timer from the Tour of Poland measuring his effort
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 3:43 PM BST
Here goes Tommy
Report bb66 September 9, 2015 3:43 PM BST
Coppel and Oliveira made up time on Bodnar in the last sector again, which makes me think of wind influencing it
Report nugget September 9, 2015 3:44 PM BST
I think you're right, Tour of Poland officials doing the time keeping here
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 3:45 PM BST
The woman on the start ramp is the least convincing Spaniard ever. She looks a bit like the woman the works in the Bureau de Change in the Thomas Cook near ours.
Report nugget September 9, 2015 3:59 PM BST
Dumoulin's gonna smash this
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 3:59 PM BST
Why has Dumoulin suddenly dropped to 1.4 for the stage?
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:01 PM BST
Looked like he was going to be outside the time at CP1 unless it was right after the camera went off?
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:01 PM BST
It must have been - 9 seconds inside the time
Report nugget September 9, 2015 4:03 PM BST
26sec up on Bodnar at the 1st check
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:03 PM BST
Dumoulin did the first section 1m 37 faster than Nieve which means he is about to catch Nieve already Laugh
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:05 PM BST
Valverde putting in a brilliant time here Shocked
Report bb66 September 9, 2015 4:06 PM BST
taken 2' out of Nieve before halfpointShocked
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:06 PM BST
Aru + 44 at first check.
Report CJ70 September 9, 2015 4:07 PM BST
Dumoulin absolutely bossing this.
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:08 PM BST
Wonder if Dumoulin can catch Chaves?
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:09 PM BST
The first sector should suit Aru and Rodriguez. The second and third checkpoint should suit Dumoulin.
Report nugget September 9, 2015 4:09 PM BST
Took Valverde paying 3.0 vs Majka in head to head
and Quintana vs Aru at the same price
Report CJ70 September 9, 2015 4:10 PM BST
Aru +30 on Rodriguez?
Report nugget September 9, 2015 4:11 PM BST
Dumoulin 1.5 to win the Vuelta.
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:19 PM BST
Dumoulin ahead by miles at CP2
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:21 PM BST
Aru +1.44 at CP2
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:23 PM BST
Valverde and Quintana always seem so much better during time trials in Spain
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:23 PM BST
Rodriguez +2.38 @ CP2
Report CJ70 September 9, 2015 4:25 PM BST
..and Rodriguez doesn't.

Going to be all out attacks on stage.20 if this continues.
Report bb66 September 9, 2015 4:27 PM BST
with only Aru still in contention I think Dumoulin will defend the lead
Report nugget September 9, 2015 4:28 PM BST
Stage 20 actually suits Indurain
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:28 PM BST
DUMOULIN IN RED

Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:29 PM BST
Wow. Just wow!!!
Report sixtwosix September 9, 2015 4:33 PM BST
The climbers needed to attack 5k out on Monday , but were not willing to come out of their comfort zone and take a risk , instead they rode together until the last K.

Today they are getting their comeuppance for their timidness.
Report the swede September 9, 2015 4:35 PM BST
nice from aru
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:35 PM BST
Wow good performance by Aru at the end. Only 4 seconds off Dumoulin in GC.
Report nugget September 9, 2015 4:35 PM BST
Not as impressive as his performance on stage 16. 
That's where the others lost it.
Report CJ70 September 9, 2015 4:36 PM BST
Wow. Didn't think Aru would end up so close. Time bonuses could play a big part in that.
Report bb66 September 9, 2015 4:36 PM BST
Aru only 3" behind, that should be possible, thought he would lose more today
Report CJ70 September 9, 2015 4:40 PM BST
Aru only lost 13 seconds on Dumoulin in the third timecheck. Seriously impressive.
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:42 PM BST
Think the late climb helped Aru and the other climbers
Report nugget September 9, 2015 4:43 PM BST
Quintana only 1:33 down on Dumoulin.  Only lost 5 seconds in the last sector.  What could of been if he didn't get sick I wonder.
Report bb66 September 9, 2015 4:43 PM BST
Valverde and Quintana also not far behind Tom in the last section, he probably ran out of gas in the ascent
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:44 PM BST
Dumoulin was matched as low as 1.36 for the GC during that stage. What a race this Vuelta has been...
Report nugget September 9, 2015 4:45 PM BST

Sep 9, 2015 -- 10:28AM, nugget wrote:


Stage 20 actually suits Indurain


*Dumoulin

Report nugget September 9, 2015 4:50 PM BST
Looks like the late starters had favourable conditions.  The other contenders appeared to have done alright compared to Dumoulin.
Report nugget September 9, 2015 5:13 PM BST
If it wasn't for his teammate Landa winning stage 11, Aru would be in the leaders jersey.
Report CJ70 September 9, 2015 6:01 PM BST

Sep 9, 2015 -- 11:13AM, nugget wrote:


If it wasn't for his teammate Landa winning stage 11, Aru would be in the leaders jersey.


That'll please Vino!

Report SwingingPick September 9, 2015 7:26 PM BST
Only saw bits and pieces, but it looks like whilst it was a strong ride by Dumoulin, it wasn't the WC ride many were anticipating. Certainly what the Panzerwagon would have pulled-out, so top quality ride.

Quintana -- wow -- close! Might do well to remember that for the Tour, next year, if they decide to go ITT heavy.
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