*Vuelta a España - Stage 17* Wednesday 9th September

Stage 17 (ITT)  »  Burgos  ›  Burgos   (38.7k)

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A mostly flat TT that will go a long, long way towards deciding the GC of the 2015 Vuelta. This route is largely flat and will suit the rouleurs and TT specialists. They head South at first and then do a large anti-clockwise loop. After a flat 5km, there is a slight upward gradient for the next 5km or so. Other than a climb at roughly 32km, this is the only upwards section on the course. There is then a short descent and then the next 20km are very flat, and relatively straightforward. This will allow the powerful riders to make time over the climbers. The riders come back through Burgos, before heading out to the West and right round in a clockwise loop and come back through Burgos again from the North East. The climb is at 32km, and is roughly 1km at 10%. This will help the climbers, but being such a short climb it won't allow them to pull back much time over the rouleurs.

Following this climb they go under the 5km kite and then there is a sharp descent. During this descent there are 2 very sharp turns where the riders will have to keep their wits about them. The last few kms have plenty of corners and pinch points and it will be more difficult on this section to maintain a high speed compared to the earlier sections. Overall though, despite the technical nature of the latter part, and the late climb and descent, this suits the TT specialists rather than the GC riders. In the context of the GC, this is all about how much time Dumoulin can put in to his rivals.
The GC is
Rodriguez
Aru +0.01
Majka +1.35
Dumoulin +1.51
Tom Dumoulin has done absolutely magnificently to restrict his losses over the last three stages and to be under two minutes away from the red jersey gives him an absolutely marvellous opportunity to win this Vuelta. But can he make up enough time to put him in the leader's jersey? The Tour de Suisse had a very similar time trial to this test, being 38.4km. Dumoulin won that stage, and put 1m 26 into Majka. Climbers like Thibault Pinot and Sergio Henao were 1.50 and 2.00 back respectively. That test had long flat sections but had 3 or 4 shortish, steep climbs. If anything, this track probably suits Dumoulin more, with longer flat sections and only the one serious climb. Based on that, he could easily put more than 2 minutes into Aru and Rodriguez, possibly slightly less against Majka. Dumoulin will be tired after the amazing feats he has achieved during this Grand Tour but so will his rivals. I will put my neck on the block and say that Tom Dumoulin will win this time trial, and be in red. It will be interesting to see the margins though. I think he can take a lead of about 20 seconds or so over his rivals. Majka should also be able to make time on Aru and Purito. Whether he can make enough to get into second place in the classification is highly doubtful. I would also expect Aru to make some time over Purito here, who I think is the weakest of the 4 on a TT bike. I'd love to see Purito win this Vuelta, he looks in brilliant form as well, but I fear he may be in 3rd or even 4th place after this time trial. The great thing is that this Vuelta is not over and almost whatever happens here, there should be 3 or 4 riders still in contention for the outright win and going into several intruiging stages it is all to play for and Saturday's stage should be absolutely brilliant.