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Stage 16 » Luarca › Ermita de Alba. Quiros (185k)
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Stage 11 in Andorra was the stage everyone wanted to see but this is just as hard and with the levels of fatigue we could see some big changes to the GC on this last summit finish of the Vuelta. There are 7 categorised climbs in total today, with over 5,000 metres of vertical climbing.
Luarca is the start town for this 185km long and very difficult looking stage. Luarca is the principal town in the municipality of Valdes, in Asturias, a bit further West from Oviedo and Gijon. The climbing starts immediately with the Cat 3 Alto de Aristébano, which is 14km long and 3.4%. This should enable an early break to get away and there will be plenty of riders willing to roll the dice today. They take this climb from the easier side so there is a sharp and technical descent before two more uncategorised climbs and then the Cat 2 Alto de Piedratecha which is 10.6km @ 4.6%. The next 100km or so will be fairly straightforward, with only the Cat 3 Alto de cabruñana at 86km (4.8km @ 6.7%) and the Cat 2 Alto del Tenebredo at 120km (3.7% @ 8.9%) to worry about. The last 44km are where the really tough climbing miles will be done.
First they hit the Cat 2 Alto Del Cordal. This is 8.5km at 5.7% and will further weaken the legs and thin the bunch but its a pretty steady climb. They then have a fast and difficult 6km descent before the penultimate climb of the day, the Cat 1 Alto de la Cobertoria. This is a very tough climb, and if there are serious attacks amongst the GC group on here the race could blow to pieces. The Corbertoria has almost 5km in the middle at double digit gradients. It does even out but having a climb of this magnitude before the final climb could serious damage the chances of anyone except the specialist climbers.
The Alto Ermita de Alba is another new climb for the Vuelta, and it is a ripper! This is an Especial climb, despite being only 6.8km long. How can that be? Well the entire climb is averages 11.1% and this has several sections upto 15% and a maximum gradient of 21%. With a rest day following this stage and then the flat almost 40km TT the main point of interest is how much time can the climbers amongst the GC contenders like Aru and Rodriguez put into Tom Dumoulin? He is 1'25 down on those two, and would normally make 3 minutes or so on a TT of that length. Whether he can create that sort of time gap in the third week of a Grand Tour remains to be seen, but the next two stages will go a long way towards answering the questions that remain in trying to work out who will wear the red jersey in Paris.
I think the breakaway will take this. I expect to see a big break get up the road, and with Aru (just) in red, Astana will have to control the race again, even with 7 men. With three tough climbs in the finale the GC teams will have their numbers reduced and this could make it tough to bring back a break if its strong and there are decent climbers in it. This is quite likely due to the early climb. When the leaders hit the climb Rodriguez will be keen to make more time on Aru. He needs to because he is the weakest of the GC contenders in the TT and there is little chance of making time after the TT. This is developing into one of the most exciting and fascinating Grand Tours in years. It should also be one of the most interesting Grand Tour TTs. Aru should beat Rodriguez in the TT, but Majka should beat them both. Then Dumoulin should beat the three of them. I'm dreaming of a GC of something like Rodriguez, Aru (+30), Majka (+1.30), Dumoulin (2.45) going into that TT so this should be an absolutely fascinating stage.
In terms of winners, top climbers who are out of the GC picture must be the way to go here. Mikel Landa, Kenny Elissonde both have previous for winning this sort of stage. Henao, De Clerq and Duarte are also likely types. Each way bets on Pierre Rolland at 150/1 and Andrew Talansky 250/1 for me.
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Stage 11 in Andorra was the stage everyone wanted to see but this is just as hard and with the levels of fatigue we could see some big changes to the GC on this last summit finish of the Vuelta. There are 7 categorised climbs in total today, with over 5,000 metres of vertical climbing.
Luarca is the start town for this 185km long and very difficult looking stage. Luarca is the principal town in the municipality of Valdes, in Asturias, a bit further West from Oviedo and Gijon. The climbing starts immediately with the Cat 3 Alto de Aristébano, which is 14km long and 3.4%. This should enable an early break to get away and there will be plenty of riders willing to roll the dice today. They take this climb from the easier side so there is a sharp and technical descent before two more uncategorised climbs and then the Cat 2 Alto de Piedratecha which is 10.6km @ 4.6%. The next 100km or so will be fairly straightforward, with only the Cat 3 Alto de cabruñana at 86km (4.8km @ 6.7%) and the Cat 2 Alto del Tenebredo at 120km (3.7% @ 8.9%) to worry about. The last 44km are where the really tough climbing miles will be done.
First they hit the Cat 2 Alto Del Cordal. This is 8.5km at 5.7% and will further weaken the legs and thin the bunch but its a pretty steady climb. They then have a fast and difficult 6km descent before the penultimate climb of the day, the Cat 1 Alto de la Cobertoria. This is a very tough climb, and if there are serious attacks amongst the GC group on here the race could blow to pieces. The Corbertoria has almost 5km in the middle at double digit gradients. It does even out but having a climb of this magnitude before the final climb could serious damage the chances of anyone except the specialist climbers.
The Alto Ermita de Alba is another new climb for the Vuelta, and it is a ripper! This is an Especial climb, despite being only 6.8km long. How can that be? Well the entire climb is averages 11.1% and this has several sections upto 15% and a maximum gradient of 21%. With a rest day following this stage and then the flat almost 40km TT the main point of interest is how much time can the climbers amongst the GC contenders like Aru and Rodriguez put into Tom Dumoulin? He is 1'25 down on those two, and would normally make 3 minutes or so on a TT of that length. Whether he can create that sort of time gap in the third week of a Grand Tour remains to be seen, but the next two stages will go a long way towards answering the questions that remain in trying to work out who will wear the red jersey in Paris.
I think the breakaway will take this. I expect to see a big break get up the road, and with Aru (just) in red, Astana will have to control the race again, even with 7 men. With three tough climbs in the finale the GC teams will have their numbers reduced and this could make it tough to bring back a break if its strong and there are decent climbers in it. This is quite likely due to the early climb. When the leaders hit the climb Rodriguez will be keen to make more time on Aru. He needs to because he is the weakest of the GC contenders in the TT and there is little chance of making time after the TT. This is developing into one of the most exciting and fascinating Grand Tours in years. It should also be one of the most interesting Grand Tour TTs. Aru should beat Rodriguez in the TT, but Majka should beat them both. Then Dumoulin should beat the three of them. I'm dreaming of a GC of something like Rodriguez, Aru (+30), Majka (+1.30), Dumoulin (2.45) going into that TT so this should be an absolutely fascinating stage.
In terms of winners, top climbers who are out of the GC picture must be the way to go here. Mikel Landa, Kenny Elissonde both have previous for winning this sort of stage. Henao, De Clerq and Duarte are also likely types. Each way bets on Pierre Rolland at 150/1 and Andrew Talansky 250/1 for me.
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Plaza not in the break, Fraile being in the break should secure KOM for him.
The break has some strong climbers but is a small one. Go Torres.
The break has some strong climbers but is a small one. Go Torres.
Plaza hasn't made the break but good news for MC is that Rolland has! So looks a good shout for this one though only five in the break with another five chasing, think they will need the 10 together to make it work. Still not sure the break will win the day as the gc riders are really going to attack the final climb knowing it could be the last chance to put serious time in to Dumoulin.
I wonder if Quintana will think of doing a long attack like his race winning move at the giro last year?? He seems to be getting stronger now and a big attack would be his only chance of overall victory. At the giro he attacked on the descent before the final climb, if he is in shape it could be a good place for him and Valverde to launch a move here? backed Quintana 11/2. May add a rider or two from the break later.
I wonder if Quintana will think of doing a long attack like his race winning move at the giro last year?? He seems to be getting stronger now and a big attack would be his only chance of overall victory. At the giro he attacked on the descent before the final climb, if he is in shape it could be a good place for him and Valverde to launch a move here? backed Quintana 11/2. May add a rider or two from the break later.
I have a feeling Quintana will rise from the ashes today.
Movistar did most of the work yesterday in controlling the break before the final climb. He will probably need to rely on other teams helping to chase the break today if he wants to win the stage.
10 riders in the break. They already have 8:30 after 20km.
And Pierre Rolland is in there for MC.... 150/1 looks a good investment now !
Indeed, Chapeau mc!
Long way to go still but the hard work of getting a 150/1 shot in the break is done.
Long way to go still but the hard work of getting a 150/1 shot in the break is done.
This could be handy, 19 mins up with 82km left. Torres and Schleck probably the main dangers in this group?
At 150/1 Rolland would represent the biggest priced tip on this forum should he do the business for MC, certainly the biggest price since we've formed this loose association of forum regulars from the old forum. I think MC, you had a 200/1 pop landed on place terms in the Tour?
Rolland is essentially riding against inferior opposition, he is the class rider, but there are some plucky climbers with him so it's not assured. Not having any bets at ante-post, I'm more than happy to sit back and cheer on MC's hope, but there may be some other options which might be interesting IR.
Rolland is essentially riding against inferior opposition, he is the class rider, but there are some plucky climbers with him so it's not assured. Not having any bets at ante-post, I'm more than happy to sit back and cheer on MC's hope, but there may be some other options which might be interesting IR.
The bookies are making Rolland 3rd faav in this group behind Torres and Schleck!! Personally i'd have him as fav here so good luck MC.
Schleck -- hasn't had a win since his Nationals RR in 2014. He was building some form in his last start before the Vuelta, the Tour of Utah, but he could only manage a 4th place, with Berhane beating him but Schleck beating Horner. Even if he is on good sensations, I don't think he can still take multiple hits and have a kick.
Torres -- even though he is 28yo and approaching his prime as a rider, he doesn't have much experience in the pro ranks, and I think he might struggle in the pressure-cooker atmosphere of a big climb in a GT. Can't believe he is the favourite presently, but not laying.
Rolland -- is better than Pinot, imo. Was in the breakaway yesterday, which is about all he has done in this race, but it shows he is feeling strong and motivated for a stage win. Multiple Tour stage winner, top 10 performer in multiple GTs. 2nd favourite at better than 3/1 looks very inviting, on here. Taking some of that for a trade and outright.
Fraile -- has two pro wins, however neither of those two wins have been on gradient such as this. I think the combination of gradient and distance will hurt him.
Torres -- even though he is 28yo and approaching his prime as a rider, he doesn't have much experience in the pro ranks, and I think he might struggle in the pressure-cooker atmosphere of a big climb in a GT. Can't believe he is the favourite presently, but not laying.
Rolland -- is better than Pinot, imo. Was in the breakaway yesterday, which is about all he has done in this race, but it shows he is feeling strong and motivated for a stage win. Multiple Tour stage winner, top 10 performer in multiple GTs. 2nd favourite at better than 3/1 looks very inviting, on here. Taking some of that for a trade and outright.
Fraile -- has two pro wins, however neither of those two wins have been on gradient such as this. I think the combination of gradient and distance will hurt him.
Yes, I agree HB, Rolland should be the clear favourite here -- can't work out why he isn't, though?
I'd have Moser better than Schleck, Torres, and Fraile.
Moser -- showed his climbing credentials when he placed 3rd on the Alp d'Huez stage in the 2013 Tour, and whilst he hasn't done much since then, he is only a 24yo, so he might be coming back into it and therefore is a rider with more promise than the three aforementioned.
KAT riding like they have the Virtual Leader in Purito!
Love it! 
Moser -- showed his climbing credentials when he placed 3rd on the Alp d'Huez stage in the 2013 Tour, and whilst he hasn't done much since then, he is only a 24yo, so he might be coming back into it and therefore is a rider with more promise than the three aforementioned.
KAT riding like they have the Virtual Leader in Purito!
Love it!
SwingingPick • September 7, 2015 3:18 PM BST
Rolland -- is better than Pinot, imo.
lol. I remember your posts from the tour about Pinot. You must of posted "Pinot is a bum" about five or six times. Then he won stage 20 to alp d'huez holding off a charging Quintana.
Rolland -- is better than Pinot, imo.
lol. I remember your posts from the tour about Pinot. You must of posted "Pinot is a bum
" about five or six times. Then he won stage 20 to alp d'huez holding off a charging Quintana.
Moser finished 3rd on the Alp d'Huez stage (where they climbed it twice) albeit from a 3 man break. He hasn't really gone on with it after getting some good results a few years back including winning the tour of Poland beating Kwiatkowski. He has shown a few good signs recently but still is an unknown quantity on long steep climbs. He bridged across to the initial break today so he may be keen to do something so I'm happy to have him onboard.
This is TCS going ALL IN -- desperate stuff -- but how is it going to work exactly, if Majka doesn't take it up at the bottom of the final climb? 
I think Tinkoff have got it right really laying it down here and surprised Katusha/ Astana/ Movistar aren't helping more, as this is the way to really hurt Dumoulin by putting the pace on now with the 3 very hard climbs to tackle in quick succession.
I would've thought this final climb is difficult enough for Dumoulin to come unstuck today, but if he is gone today completely than no nice trades in the ITT as he lights up the course. Anyway, as I suspected TCS have retreated back into the fold, so it was just a bit of nonsense, but it did reveal to us that he is on good sensations, so they are pretty helpful in letting us know that. 
Looks like definitely not Rollands day unlucky MC. Frank Schleck looking strong here.
Found something about Torres -- 2nd in San Luis at the start of the year, on a summit finish, with 13 secs on Quintana in 4th -- average of that 16kms climb at 7.8%. Schleck looking like the Frank of old who never reached his brother's success -- second vintage?
Does Schleck still have bury-mode ability? Torres just sitting there, but he is not at all that comfortable, while Schleck is up for some real suffering, and has been on the front since making the selection. Until now...
Looks like the books had it right between Torres and Schleck!
There goes my Island in the sea.
I think the market likes Torres for the 21% with 3 kms to go -- suggesting he likes the mountain-goat gradient. That'll do me -- I'm on Torres!
Schleck was doing all the work for most of the way when he created the breakaway selection, and Torres is a class down, and instead of going with the evidence on display, I speculate on a performance I did not witness with Torres in San Luis -- doesn't even look like a mountain goat! 
Rides like Jan Ullrich, does Torres! Well done Frank Schleck backers!
Well done Frank Schleck backers!
Holy **** what a stage that was. Absolutely amazing scenes everywhere!!!
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I thought it was pretty disappointing from the gc riders, no one seems to have the legs or the desire to put in any attacks! Had Froome stayed fit he would have destroyed them on these climbs.
Maybe Katusha should of rode on the front and pushed the pace to give Rodriguez a chance to maximize gains on another suitable finish for him?
They gave Dumoulin an easier ride than even he expected I think
I agree, there weren't that many attacks on this stage, they stayed together for the most part and whilst there was a more subtle race out there today, in terms of pure thrills some of the other stages like 11, 14, and 15 were much more enjoyable.
I thought that was brilliant, Schleck turning back the clock, the closeness of the battle between Aru & Purito with the jersey swinging from Aru to Purito, then the battle to put time into Dumoulin and the absolutely astonishing ride he did to keep that gap down. Amazing drama.
I thought that was brilliant, Schleck turning back the clock, the closeness of the battle between Aru & Purito with the jersey swinging from Aru to Purito, then the battle to put time into Dumoulin and the absolutely astonishing ride he did to keep that gap down. Amazing drama.
It was exciting no doubt and looks like it will be exciting right up until sunday, and will go down as one of the most exciting GT's ever but that does't mean the standard has been great.
I'm just a little disappointed that no one here is climbing well and able to launch any really meaningful attacks.
Look at today Landa could have put minutes in to everyone on that final climb no one could keep his wheel but he was just riding for Aru so never even tried, looked like he was having a sunday afternoon ride he was barely out of breath! If he hadn't had that mysterious bad day I still think he would have been able to beat this field easily?? Quintana is obviously a shadow of himself because of illness, Purito is not as good as he was but is hanging in there doggedly, I have never been a massive Aru fan just think he has too many bad days in the real big mountains (luckily we have not had too many real mountain finishes here). When it comes to the TDF next year no one here is going to be even close to peak form Froome, Quintana, Nibali or Contador and I know that doesn't matter because they are not here. But all those riders try long range attacks at some point they light up races, no one here is doing that or capable of that (Quintana just isn't anywhere near 100%), thats all I'm disappointed about.
The great thing about this tour is that there are 6 or 7 very well matched riders and that does make for a very exciting spectacle as you say. There is a good chance there could be 30 secs between 4 or 5 riders after the TT and that is unheard of going in to the last few stages so there will definitely be excitement right until the end..
I'm just a little disappointed that no one here is climbing well and able to launch any really meaningful attacks.
Look at today Landa could have put minutes in to everyone on that final climb no one could keep his wheel but he was just riding for Aru so never even tried, looked like he was having a sunday afternoon ride he was barely out of breath! If he hadn't had that mysterious bad day I still think he would have been able to beat this field easily?? Quintana is obviously a shadow of himself because of illness, Purito is not as good as he was but is hanging in there doggedly, I have never been a massive Aru fan just think he has too many bad days in the real big mountains (luckily we have not had too many real mountain finishes here). When it comes to the TDF next year no one here is going to be even close to peak form Froome, Quintana, Nibali or Contador and I know that doesn't matter because they are not here. But all those riders try long range attacks at some point they light up races, no one here is doing that or capable of that (Quintana just isn't anywhere near 100%), thats all I'm disappointed about.
The great thing about this tour is that there are 6 or 7 very well matched riders and that does make for a very exciting spectacle as you say. There is a good chance there could be 30 secs between 4 or 5 riders after the TT and that is unheard of going in to the last few stages so there will definitely be excitement right until the end..
Surprised the climbers made little attempt to break Dumoulin earlier.
Might have failed , but if you are not a good time trialist it is the only option .....play safe and you won't win the race.
Landa again looked like a superstar in waiting when he goes to SKY.
As mentioned he could have left them for dead , he set the pace and his team leader was only able to hang on for grim death.
Full credit for Dumoulin , he will deserve the win m presuming he gets the time back.
Might have failed , but if you are not a good time trialist it is the only option .....play safe and you won't win the race.
Landa again looked like a superstar in waiting when he goes to SKY.
As mentioned he could have left them for dead , he set the pace and his team leader was only able to hang on for grim death.
Full credit for Dumoulin , he will deserve the win m presuming he gets the time back.
Dumoulin's to lose now ain't it? Presuming he can negotiate stage 20 ok (no reason why not he's climbed exceptionally well so far) nobody is attacking from range
Should eat them up in the time trial.
Should eat them up in the time trial.
Don't get me wrong, and perhaps being from Australia where we like our cyclists' to be hard men, I gravitate toward a more brutal form of bicycle racing where the riders really smash each other up until there is only one left standing -- this stage was more subtle and as such I shared the drama you have identified, but perhaps I greedily wanted or expected more.
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