*Vuelta a España - Stage 16* Monday 7th September

Stage 16  »  Luarca  ›  Ermita de Alba. Quiros   (185k)

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Stage 11 in Andorra was the stage everyone wanted to see but this is just as hard and with the levels of fatigue we could see some big changes to the GC on this last summit finish of the Vuelta. There are 7 categorised climbs in total today, with over 5,000 metres of vertical climbing.

Luarca is the start town for this 185km long and very difficult looking stage. Luarca is the principal town in the municipality of Valdes, in Asturias, a bit further West from Oviedo and Gijon. The climbing starts immediately with the Cat 3 Alto de Aristébano, which is 14km long and 3.4%. This should enable an early break to get away and there will be plenty of riders willing to roll the dice today. They take this climb from the easier side so there is a sharp and technical descent before two more uncategorised climbs and then the Cat 2 Alto de Piedratecha which is 10.6km @ 4.6%. The next 100km or so will be fairly straightforward, with only the Cat 3 Alto de cabruñana at 86km (4.8km @ 6.7%) and the Cat 2 Alto del Tenebredo at 120km (3.7% @ 8.9%) to worry about. The last 44km are where the really tough climbing miles will be done.

First they hit the Cat 2 Alto Del Cordal. This is 8.5km at 5.7% and will further weaken the legs and thin the bunch but its a pretty steady climb. They then have a fast and difficult  6km descent before the penultimate climb of the day, the Cat 1 Alto de la Cobertoria. This is a very tough climb, and if there are serious attacks amongst the GC group on here the race could blow to pieces. The Corbertoria has almost 5km in the middle at double digit gradients. It does even out but having a climb of this magnitude before the final climb could serious damage the chances of anyone except the specialist climbers.

The Alto Ermita de Alba is another new climb for the Vuelta, and it is a ripper! This is an Especial climb, despite being only 6.8km long. How can that be? Well the entire climb is averages 11.1% and this has several sections upto 15% and a maximum gradient of 21%. With a rest day following this stage and then the flat almost 40km TT the main point of interest is how much time can the climbers amongst the GC contenders like Aru and Rodriguez put into Tom Dumoulin? He is 1'25 down on those two, and would normally make 3 minutes or so on a TT of that length. Whether he can create that sort of time gap in the third week of a Grand Tour remains to be seen, but the next two stages will go a long way towards answering the questions that remain in trying to work out who will wear the red jersey in Paris.


I think the breakaway will take this. I expect to see a big break get up the road, and with Aru (just) in red, Astana will have to control the race again, even with 7 men. With three tough climbs in the finale the GC teams will have their numbers reduced and this could make it tough to bring back a break if its strong and there are decent climbers in it. This is quite likely due to the early climb. When the leaders hit the climb Rodriguez will be keen to make more time on Aru. He needs to because he is the weakest of the GC contenders in the TT and there is little chance of making time after the TT. This is developing into one of the most exciting and fascinating Grand Tours in years. It should also be one of the most interesting Grand Tour TTs. Aru should beat Rodriguez in the TT, but Majka should beat them both. Then Dumoulin should beat the three of them. I'm dreaming of a GC of something like Rodriguez, Aru (+30), Majka (+1.30), Dumoulin (2.45) going into that TT so this should be an absolutely fascinating stage.
In terms of winners, top climbers who are out of the GC picture must be the way to go here. Mikel Landa, Kenny Elissonde both have previous for winning this sort of stage. Henao, De Clerq and Duarte are also likely types. Each way bets on Pierre Rolland at 150/1 and Andrew Talansky 250/1 for me.