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Stage 15 » Comillas › Sotres. Cabrales (175.8k)
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Apologies in advance for what is going to be a very weak preview of what looks a cracking stage, albeit in a very Vuelta way. This is all about the final climb but I'll stick the profiles up and let you lot discuss it as I'm away for the weekend after a busy week at work and I'm not back until Sunday night. Here's the final climb and the last kms.
Last kms
Sotres
Good luck all.
Map
Profile
Apologies in advance for what is going to be a very weak preview of what looks a cracking stage, albeit in a very Vuelta way. This is all about the final climb but I'll stick the profiles up and let you lot discuss it as I'm away for the weekend after a busy week at work and I'm not back until Sunday night. Here's the final climb and the last kms.
Last kms
Sotres
Good luck all.
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No worries MC -- much appreciated that you found the time to get us started.
Well, the second of these trio of tough summit finish stages looks particularly difficult on account of the final 3 kms to the finish of the Alto de Sotres, angling up to 13%. The only other cat climb, the cat.2 some 60 kms from the finish has got three peaks, and this climb sits in between two uncategorised climbs which are sure to add difficulty to the stage.
On the one hand, should the breakaway form without any dangerous riders to Aru on GC, it may be permitted to go as AST look to give themselves another friendly ride, prior to the assaults on the final climb. On the other hand, and even if the breakaway's gap is kept in some order, unless there are some handy climbers, it will be difficult for the breakaway riders to hold on as the climbing starts earlier with the uncat climb right before, and finishes with real suffering as the final climb angles up.
We saw yesterday how quickly the select peloton was coming up the final climb, and De Marchi only had a 3.30 gap on the line to the best of the peloton in Quintana, from what was, conservatively, an 8 min lead by the start of the climb.
I think this stage might be with the GC contenders, the climbing is just too hard on today's stage for the breakaway to hold a nice gap up the final climb, and the GC riders must be motivated to go hard and early in order to test Aru.
Clearly AST are going to control the race, and again I think their best option is to ride hard and give Dumoulin a stern test on a hard stage, particularly the final portion of the final climb, which may trouble him enough to lose a bigger chunk of time to Aru than he did yesterday. However, if yesterday was anything to go by, then AST are willing to ride tempo in order to have enough riders surrounding Aru by the final climb. This type of scenario appears to make Aru somewhat nervous, for whilst AST keep the pace high on the final climb in order to discourage attacks by the GC contenders, once they peel away Aru thinks he has to launch his own attack.
When HB tipped up Quintana for yesterday's stage I thought he was mad, however Quintana's attack saw him finish best of the GC riders and as he now targets the podium, he is certainly a legitimate favourite, and is likely to make his presence felt again. Purito might leave it for tomorrow. Majka isn't going very well. It's too difficult for Dumoulin and Chaves. Valverde is slow. Moreno will be with Purito. Nieve may lift, although he doesn't appear motivated to take the opportunity in both hands in the absence of Froome and lift his profile as a potential GC rider. Pozzovivo is making excuses.
That leaves Aru, however he looked nervous on yesterday's stage and looked to be in difficulty when breathing hard. Young riders tend to recover easier and well, and often quickly learn from their mistakes, however there is a chink in the armour of his leader's jersey from yesterday, and it might just be so confusing for him today that he misses his opportunity for the stage victory.
No bets at ante-post for me.
Good luck to all,
SP
Well, the second of these trio of tough summit finish stages looks particularly difficult on account of the final 3 kms to the finish of the Alto de Sotres, angling up to 13%. The only other cat climb, the cat.2 some 60 kms from the finish has got three peaks, and this climb sits in between two uncategorised climbs which are sure to add difficulty to the stage.
On the one hand, should the breakaway form without any dangerous riders to Aru on GC, it may be permitted to go as AST look to give themselves another friendly ride, prior to the assaults on the final climb. On the other hand, and even if the breakaway's gap is kept in some order, unless there are some handy climbers, it will be difficult for the breakaway riders to hold on as the climbing starts earlier with the uncat climb right before, and finishes with real suffering as the final climb angles up.
We saw yesterday how quickly the select peloton was coming up the final climb, and De Marchi only had a 3.30 gap on the line to the best of the peloton in Quintana, from what was, conservatively, an 8 min lead by the start of the climb.
I think this stage might be with the GC contenders, the climbing is just too hard on today's stage for the breakaway to hold a nice gap up the final climb, and the GC riders must be motivated to go hard and early in order to test Aru.
Clearly AST are going to control the race, and again I think their best option is to ride hard and give Dumoulin a stern test on a hard stage, particularly the final portion of the final climb, which may trouble him enough to lose a bigger chunk of time to Aru than he did yesterday. However, if yesterday was anything to go by, then AST are willing to ride tempo in order to have enough riders surrounding Aru by the final climb. This type of scenario appears to make Aru somewhat nervous, for whilst AST keep the pace high on the final climb in order to discourage attacks by the GC contenders, once they peel away Aru thinks he has to launch his own attack.
When HB tipped up Quintana for yesterday's stage I thought he was mad, however Quintana's attack saw him finish best of the GC riders and as he now targets the podium, he is certainly a legitimate favourite, and is likely to make his presence felt again. Purito might leave it for tomorrow. Majka isn't going very well. It's too difficult for Dumoulin and Chaves. Valverde is slow. Moreno will be with Purito. Nieve may lift, although he doesn't appear motivated to take the opportunity in both hands in the absence of Froome and lift his profile as a potential GC rider. Pozzovivo is making excuses.
That leaves Aru, however he looked nervous on yesterday's stage and looked to be in difficulty when breathing hard. Young riders tend to recover easier and well, and often quickly learn from their mistakes, however there is a chink in the armour of his leader's jersey from yesterday, and it might just be so confusing for him today that he misses his opportunity for the stage victory.
No bets at ante-post for me.
Good luck to all,
SP
Yes SP tipping Quintana yesterday may have looked a bit mad but he was widely reported as suffering with a cold last weekend so I think it was just a matter of when he started feeling stronger, not if. I actually now think Quintana has a major shot at winning this and tempted to put in a bet at 16/1 though have already played the outright martket enough?? I mean Quintana nearly made up 3 mins on a peak form Froome in the last week oof the tdf so is definitely capable of doing it here.
Anyway back to today and this looks a tough finish with those last few kms being really hard, but with tomorrows finish being even tougher with the 3 hard climbs in quick succession at the end, I have a feeling the gc teams maybe content to let a break go again today with an eye on tomorrow as the stage where they can really take serious time. Maybe wrong and it could come down to a gc tear up on the final climb but for now i will play the break.
Have backed LANDA 28/1 as we saw the other day he is one of the very best climbers out there right now and it may suit Astana to have him away so they don't have to ride so hard on the front of the peleton??
Also backed THOMAS 66/1. As with the last couple of days Sky are sure to want to be in the break again and so maybe it will be G's turn today?? has been climbing well all year and would be a very strong man to have driving a break.
Anyway back to today and this looks a tough finish with those last few kms being really hard, but with tomorrows finish being even tougher with the 3 hard climbs in quick succession at the end, I have a feeling the gc teams maybe content to let a break go again today with an eye on tomorrow as the stage where they can really take serious time. Maybe wrong and it could come down to a gc tear up on the final climb but for now i will play the break.
Have backed LANDA 28/1 as we saw the other day he is one of the very best climbers out there right now and it may suit Astana to have him away so they don't have to ride so hard on the front of the peleton??
Also backed THOMAS 66/1. As with the last couple of days Sky are sure to want to be in the break again and so maybe it will be G's turn today?? has been climbing well all year and would be a very strong man to have driving a break.
Well just checking oddschecker and everyone (bar 365) is bigger than 66/1 on G!! He is available at 150/1 with lads so that will do for me!!
Blel Kadri (ALM),
Ricardo Vilela (CJR),
Dominique Rollin (COF),
Brayan Ramirez (COL),
Nikolas Maes (EQS),
Natnael Berhane (MTN),
Pierre Rolland (EUC),
Maarten Tjallingii (TLJ),
Haimar Zubeldia (TFR).
9 rider break with a gap of about 3 mins.
Ricardo Vilela (CJR),
Dominique Rollin (COF),
Brayan Ramirez (COL),
Nikolas Maes (EQS),
Natnael Berhane (MTN),
Pierre Rolland (EUC),
Maarten Tjallingii (TLJ),
Haimar Zubeldia (TFR).
9 rider break with a gap of about 3 mins.
This finish is really steep, looks like the gc riders will battle it out for the win. I think we'll get some big time gaps.
I've laid Quintana today because I thought the break had a decent chance. Think I could be in big trouble here.
Kadri, whilst in his prime has no form this season nor this race, however he won on a summit finish by 2 mins from Contador and co in 2014 stage 8 Tour.
Rolland, appeared to be improving in the last week of the Tour, where he had a good 2nd-place finish behind Bardet on stage 18. Has done nothing in the Vuelta, thus far.
Vilela, might want to repeat his fellow countryman Oliveira's win the other day as he is from Portugal, also. He has been spotted in places, attempting to get into the break, and he can climb but is at the maiden class.
Ramirez is the selection from COL today, and he should be capable of climbing, but is below this class level.
Berhane, won a summit finish in Turkey from a bunch of second-rate riders, so whilst he can obviously climb, he looks like a class down on the best here. Won his national RR.
Zubeldia is 38yo, but we've seen some old timers win this season, so he might be in with a shout.
Tjallingi is 37 yo, and he is on good sensations today given his poor results this race, but he also loves getting into the break and never winning.
Rollin, and Maes are unlikely to handle the climb in the finale.
Rolland, appeared to be improving in the last week of the Tour, where he had a good 2nd-place finish behind Bardet on stage 18. Has done nothing in the Vuelta, thus far.
Vilela, might want to repeat his fellow countryman Oliveira's win the other day as he is from Portugal, also. He has been spotted in places, attempting to get into the break, and he can climb but is at the maiden class.
Ramirez is the selection from COL today, and he should be capable of climbing, but is below this class level.
Berhane, won a summit finish in Turkey from a bunch of second-rate riders, so whilst he can obviously climb, he looks like a class down on the best here. Won his national RR.
Zubeldia is 38yo, but we've seen some old timers win this season, so he might be in with a shout.
Tjallingi is 37 yo, and he is on good sensations today given his poor results this race, but he also loves getting into the break and never winning.
Rollin, and Maes are unlikely to handle the climb in the finale.
I backed Kadri yesterday at 400/1 so it would be absolutely no surprise at all for me to see him win 
Moving in the direction of the peloton and therefore the GC contenders, at this point.
I remember that MC, looked to be even bigger today, I thought you wouldn't be happy, but it's good you can laugh about it.
Have been laying Quintana IR on the understanding that riders recovering from illness who have a strong ride the day before another tough stage usually come up a little flat. The big expectation of Quintana to ride forwardly and aggressively, may take the pressure off Aru also, and that will only help him to stick with the Colombian long enough to attack on that steep stuff near the top.
I remember that MC, looked to be even bigger today, I thought you wouldn't be happy, but it's good you can laugh about it.
Have been laying Quintana IR on the understanding that riders recovering from illness who have a strong ride the day before another tough stage usually come up a little flat. The big expectation of Quintana to ride forwardly and aggressively, may take the pressure off Aru also, and that will only help him to stick with the Colombian long enough to attack on that steep stuff near the top.
checking in for the main event here. should be a fun finalé. I would go Aru on the basis of some stronger allies in his team
Aru is a decent price on here for a trade. 4s into laying 2s is not the worst bet as the market gets nervous when he attacks, and should do so again if he attacks this time around.
Quintana showing his inexperience with that attack, imo. 10 kms out is foolhardy!
Dumoulin is right at the back of that GC group he is going to crack here
He will come back into it in the flat middle section, but it may also be where he pushes too hard and therefore cracks on the steep stuff thereafter.
Yep, that's not hurting him, must have been the acceleration after the Quintana attack, he can do this all day, it'll be the steep stuff that hurts him.
Crowds have been a bit of a disappointment for this Vuelta, imo.
LL Sanchez looks so similar to Fuglsang, I have to remind myself he is not in this race for AST. 
My book is
Quintana = very red
Rodriguez = very green
field = green
Quintana = very red
Rodriguez = very green
field = green
Rodriguez has to win this stage if he wants to win the race imo
I've got an Aru hedge, but need some significant movement and therefore an attack by him to green the entire field.
Aru needs to park himself on Quintana's wheel here -- a little out of position!
...on GC, I mean of course -- looking old my foot!
Best kilometre of cycling I have seen in years . Magnificent by Rodriquez , seeing all those uber climbers on the limit was sport at it's best.
Tomorrow should be a cracker with Aru & Rodriquez trying to put Dumoulin out of the race and yet having to watch each other ......can't wait.
Tomorrow should be a cracker with Aru & Rodriquez trying to put Dumoulin out of the race and yet having to watch each other ......can't wait.
Quintana probably needed to go on with it 10 kms out in order to regain the kind of time he requires, but it was always a kind of fiction, and he obviously didn't have the legs in any case, which in-turn cost him in the end.
Might leave the GC talk for the GC thread.
Might leave the GC talk for the GC thread.
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