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Stage 8 » Puebla de Don Fadrique › Murcia (182.5k)
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At first this looks like an easy stage to work out with a flat run-in, but there are two kickers in the finale that will play a massive part. There is a flat finish following a predominantly downhill route and then a twice-taken late circuit, including a short and very steep Cat 3 climb that could well prevent this from being a sprint finish with all the topline sprinters. Starting in Puebla de Don Fadrique in Granada, in Andalusia, they head almost directly East for pretty much the whole stage. Over the course of the first 100km the riders come down out of the mountains. The peloton will drop from 1200km down to almost sea level. At 134km they come into Murcia, and start a circuit round the town that includes the Cat 3 Alto de la Cresta del Gallo. This is a 4.2km climb that averages 7.5%. The first km is not too bad, but after that there are some very steep gradients and in places it gets up to 19%. The road is very narrow as well and then the descent is very fast and technical so it will be very hard for riders to get back on once distanced. The second go at the climb comes only 10km after the finish of the descent first time round.
The run-in is completely flat, and relatively straightforward. There is a small roundabout at 3km and a 90degree left hander at 2km. There is a 90degree right hander at 1km. Then its pretty straight for the last 900m so this should be a fast finish. Murcia is Valverde's hometown and he will of course be desperate to win this stage. It looks like it should be perfect for him because the sprinters should get dropped and he should be able to win a sprint from a select bunch. However, Movistar will probably have to do the majority of the work bringing back the breakaway, then they will have to work hard on the climbs to drop Sagan and Degenkolb. This will mean that they may be short of numbers on the flat run-in and this could provide an opportunity for anyone that takes a chance and goes solo. I like the look of Tom Dumoulin tomorrow at 40/1. He's shown he is in superb form on the climbs and has the power to win on the flat or from a small group. I've also chanced a bit on Adam Hansen at 100/1 and Luis Leon Sanchez at 40/1 all with Lads.
Map
Profile
At first this looks like an easy stage to work out with a flat run-in, but there are two kickers in the finale that will play a massive part. There is a flat finish following a predominantly downhill route and then a twice-taken late circuit, including a short and very steep Cat 3 climb that could well prevent this from being a sprint finish with all the topline sprinters. Starting in Puebla de Don Fadrique in Granada, in Andalusia, they head almost directly East for pretty much the whole stage. Over the course of the first 100km the riders come down out of the mountains. The peloton will drop from 1200km down to almost sea level. At 134km they come into Murcia, and start a circuit round the town that includes the Cat 3 Alto de la Cresta del Gallo. This is a 4.2km climb that averages 7.5%. The first km is not too bad, but after that there are some very steep gradients and in places it gets up to 19%. The road is very narrow as well and then the descent is very fast and technical so it will be very hard for riders to get back on once distanced. The second go at the climb comes only 10km after the finish of the descent first time round.
The run-in is completely flat, and relatively straightforward. There is a small roundabout at 3km and a 90degree left hander at 2km. There is a 90degree right hander at 1km. Then its pretty straight for the last 900m so this should be a fast finish. Murcia is Valverde's hometown and he will of course be desperate to win this stage. It looks like it should be perfect for him because the sprinters should get dropped and he should be able to win a sprint from a select bunch. However, Movistar will probably have to do the majority of the work bringing back the breakaway, then they will have to work hard on the climbs to drop Sagan and Degenkolb. This will mean that they may be short of numbers on the flat run-in and this could provide an opportunity for anyone that takes a chance and goes solo. I like the look of Tom Dumoulin tomorrow at 40/1. He's shown he is in superb form on the climbs and has the power to win on the flat or from a small group. I've also chanced a bit on Adam Hansen at 100/1 and Luis Leon Sanchez at 40/1 all with Lads.
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I have thrown a few quid on Simon Gerrans today.....he won here a few years back
Looks like a late breakaway or solo attack scenario since that second circuit cat.3 comes less than 20 kms from the finish and about 5 kms of that is the tricky descent MC speaks about. Expect an attack nearing the top the final time they take the climb, and a daredevil descent to gain an easy gap before a TT to the finish as a possible scenario. Even more likely if the peloton bring back the long-range breakaway prematurely. No bets at ante-post.
Good luck to all,
SP
Good luck to all,
SP
Another scenario is for MOV to drive the pace the final time up the cat.3, causing a selection which gaps the sprinters, and then setting it up for a Valverde win in his home town of Murcia. This long-range break look like they're gone.
Sagan shuffled back a bit up that climb, jersey zipped down the middle, he hasn't been coping very well with the heat, and I've laid him a little here, at least for a trade.
think any gap Sagan might give up on the climb he could make it back on the decent. Unless someone like Sanchez or Valverde is out front leading everyone down
from the crash Dan Martin. Teeejay VG. Bouhani and Boeckmans out
Sagan still in main group after the crest of the climb but not really to the fore
Another close finish, some nice impetus in the breakaway, though. MOV draw out Sagan -- smart!
Don't like to win like that, but he was being played!
Now to double up by finding the winner -- break of three aren't clear here as yet, but the peloton are marking each other.
Sagan would've won that or got really close, however the dynamics might have changed if he was in the peloton.
Biggest win of his career -- breakthrough win for him. He looks like a classics rider so a developing hardman characteristic, and such a splintering bunch sprint finish is usually for the hard riders.
Bloody tough boy too -- won with a fractured scaphoid. Out of the race, now.
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