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marychain1
17 Aug 15 17:07
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
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2015  »  70th Vuelta a España (2.UWT)

Sat 22nd August - Stage 1 (TTT) - Puerto Banús › Marbella (7.4k)
Sun 23rd August - Stage 2 - Alhaurín de la Torre › Caminito del Rey (165k)
Mon 24th August - Stage 3 - Mijas › Málaga (164.6k)
Tues 25th August - Stage 4 - Estepona › Vejer de la Frontera (203k)
Weds 26th August - Stage 5 - Rota › Ronda (182k)
Thurs 27th August - Stage 6 - Córdoba › Sierra de Cazorla (204k)
Fri 28th August - Stage 7 - Jódar › La Alpujarra (188.3k)
Sat 29th August - Stage 8 - Puebla de Don Fadrique › Murcia (188.6k)
Sun 30th August - Stage 9 - Torrevieja › Cumbre del Sol. Benitachell (168.3k)
Mon 31st August - Stage 10 - Valencia › Borja (152k)
Rest day
Weds 2nd September - Stage 11 - Andorra la Vella › Cortals d´Encamp (138k)
Thurs 3rd September - Stage 12 - Escaldes › Engordany. Andorra - Lleida (172.5k)
Fri 4th September - Stage 13 - Calatayud › Tarazona (168k)
Sat 5th September - Stage 14 - Vitoria › Alto Campoo. Fuente del Chivo (213k)
Sun 6th September - Stage 15 - Comillas › Sotres. Cabrales (175k)
Mon 7th September - Stage 16 - Luarca › Ermita de Alba. Quiros (184k)
Rest day
Weds 9th September - Stage 17 (TT) - Burgos › Burgos (39k)
Thurs 10th September - Stage 18 - Roa › Riaza (204k)
Fri 11th September - Stage 19 - Medina del Campo › Ávila (185k)
Sat 12th September - Stage 20 - San Lorenzo de El Escorial › Cercedilla (181k)
Sun 13th September - Stage 21 - Alcalá Alcalá de Henares › Madrid (93k)

The Vuelta a España is often seen as the poorer cousin of the other two Grand Tours, the Tour de France and the Giro d'Italia. Quite often when someone has an inferiority complex, they act hard to make up for it...and that's exactly what the Vuelta does. In recent years we have seen some of the hardest stages of the year in the Vuelta, and this years edition certainly won't let us down. The Vuelta is often characterised by extreme heat and punishing mountain stages. This year the organisers have been a bit more strategic about their placement of some of the climbs, but they have also not been shy about throwing in the odd devilishly difficult stage. The organisers have not been shy about including some of Spain's more popular and interesting tourist destinations on this year's parcours either, so this should also throw up a few visual treats for viewers along the way.

The route is a mixed bag. There is an opening TTT, albeit of a distance that should hardly see any time gaps forming. There is also a near 40km TT which comes on Stage 17. This will be significant following several tough stages then a rest day. We should see large time gaps here with little climbing left to make time back. Talking of climbing, eyes will be drawn to Stage 11 which starts in Andorra in the Pyrenees. This is about as tough a stage of climbing I can ever remember in a Grand Tour. Other than that, Stages 14 and 15 feature tough summit finishes, although the stages themselves don't look too tough. Stage 16 looks hard with 7 categorised climbs in all and finishing with a Cat 1 then an ESP climb. Stage 20 features 4 Cat 1 climbs but with no summit finish any time won might have to come on the final descent. So the four stages with obvious potential to have a big effect on the outcome are Stages 11, 16, 17(TT) and 20.

We have a whole host of top names competing for the win here. Last year's winner Alberto Contador isn't here. After winning the Giro and riding the Tour he has finished for the season. But we have two previous winners in Nibali (2010) and Valverde (2009). We have Froome who has two Vuelta seconds to his name (2014 and 2011). Fabio Aru was 5th last year, won a stage and has twice podiumed in the Giro. Purito Rodriguez has won 8 Vuelta stages and had 4 x top 4 finishes in GC. And then we have bookies favourite Nairo Quintana, second in the Tour and winner of the 2014 Giro. If he can bring his form Tour he will be hard to beat. Other possibles/probables are Pozzovivo, Landa and Van Garderen, so it should be an exciting race for the red jersey. The one disappointment from the lineup has to be the lack of out-and-out sprinters. There aren't that many stages that seem to suit, but only Bouhanni and Degenkolb look likely to turn up.

Vuelta a España Previous Winners
2014 | CONTADOR Alberto
2013 | HORNER Chris
2012 | CONTADOR Alberto
2011 | COBO Juan Jose
2010 | NIBALI Vincenzo
2009 | VALVERDE Alejandro
2008 | CONTADOR Alberto
2007 | MENCHOV Denis
2006 | VINOKOUROV Alexandre
2005 | HERAS Roberto

2014 Vuelta a España
1.CONTADOR Alberto 81:25:05
2.FROOME Christopher 1:10
3.VALVERDE Alejandro 1:50
4.RODRíGUEZ Joaquim 3:25
5.ARU Fabio 4:48
6.SáNCHEZ Samuel 9:30
7.MARTIN Daniel 10:38
8.BARGUIL Warren 11:50
9.CARUSO Damiano 12:50
10.NAVARRO Daniel 13:02

Startlist http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2015-startlist

Market http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/vuelta-a-espana/winner

Although he would be right to be slightly anxious about losing time on a flat 40km time trial, Nairo Quintana only has one other rival on the very steep mountains and Chris Froome has said he is here to maintain fitness only, rather than coming to challenge for the GC. Whether Froome can hold himself back once the racing start remains to be seen, but Quintana finished the Tour far stronger anyway, and he should be capable of putting a fair amount of time into his rivals if he has maintained anything like the form and motivation he showed on Alpe d'Huez. Rumours abound though that the Vuelta was never the plan and that he has been persuaded to race by his team. If he is not fully wound up this Vuelta could be wide open. One person I don't see challenging is his teammate. Valverde's 3rd place in the Tour de France was a fantastic result but you'd expect he'd have to improve further to win this, and that cannot be expected from any rider riding the Vuelta after the Tour and certainly not a 35 year old. Nibali and Rodriguez are too more that come here on the back of riding the Tour, and we know how difficult that is. Somewhat like Quintana though, they both seemed to get stronger as the Tour went on, and they would be able to challenge here if they have maintained form and shape. Two riders who did not ride the Tour are Astana's dual Giro podiums Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa. Their team is super strong and of the two you'd have to suspect Aru would be more likely to keep team support as Landa is supposedly moving on at the end of the season, with Sky rumoured to be his next destination. Landa does have the advantage of this being his home Tour though. You suspect that they will both be kept in reserve if Vincenzo Nibali is up for this though.
Pause Switch to Standard View *Vuelta a España* Sat 22 August - Sun...
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Report CJ70 August 17, 2015 8:21 PM BST
The wild west GC. I've taken Arroyo, Duarte, Majka at big prices so far. Astana are going to go mental here, but with a three-pronged attack where are you going to go?

J-Rod a little short for me at the moment but I want him on side. Laying Froome.
Report marychain1 August 18, 2015 11:47 AM BST
Majka & Nibali are my greens
Report virtuoso August 18, 2015 11:24 PM BST
my initial thoughts are with the Astana train and Nibali. Cant understand why they have Aru shorter than Nibali currently. Possible interest on Pozzovivo for top3
Report GoBallistic August 19, 2015 5:44 PM BST
Normally Vuelta routes are rubbish because every stage is ________/ but this one actually looks half decent.  It's even got a proper downhill finish which is unheard of. 

Of the leading contenders,
For:  Aru, Majka;  Not Sure: Valv, Nibali, Rodriguez, Pozzovivo;  Against: Quintana, Froome, Landa, TJVG
Report sixtwosix August 19, 2015 9:30 PM BST
Landa could have easily taken Contador out in the Giro , but in the Froome / Wiggins , Lemond / Hinault mode he was not given opportunity with his stable star riding at home ..... and failing to win I add .
He looks destined for the top .

I like the Vuelta , the battle between Contador & Froome was terrific last year unlike the walkovers in the other 2 Grand Tours.
Report marychain1 August 21, 2015 10:59 AM BST


Points Clasification
25 points for stage win down to 1 point. No difference in points allocated between a mountain stage and a flat stage, which means a fast-finishing climber or puncher has an advantage. In the intermediate sprints only 4 points are allocated to the winner so they will be relatively unimportant compared to the Tour or Giro.

Mountains Classification
Alberto Fernandez Climb (Alto Ermita de Alba on Stage 16) Top 6 get points - 25, 15, 10, 6, 4 & 2
ESP climb - 15, 10, 6, 4 & 2
Cat 1 - 10, 6, 4, 2 & 1
Cat 2 - 5, 3 & 1
Cat 3 - 3, 2 & 1
Report marychain1 August 21, 2015 6:12 PM BST
Stage 1 times neutralised - racing for jersey and stage win only
Report SwingingPick August 22, 2015 6:16 AM BST
**** Chris Froome
          The 30yo comes into this as the highest-rated rider in the peloton, after winning the Tour one month ago. Suited by the parcours. Advantaged by a strong team. There is some speculation that he is here to lay a foundation for 2016 in a similar fashion to last year, when after crashing out of the Tour he required a ride in the Vuelta for a substantial test, however whilst he has ridden the Vuelta previously as such and more than once, subscribing to such an idea overlooks 1.) the strength of his 2nd place finish to Contador in 2014, and 2.) his ambition to make his mark in cycling’s record books by becoming only the third rider in history to achieve the Tour + Vuelta double, but more importantly the first ever rider to do so since 1995 when the Vuelta was repositioned after the Tour.
          In 2012, he finished 2nd in the Tour and then finished a poor 4th in the Vuelta one month later, when he gave away a big chunk of time to Contador, Valverde and Purito, respectively. Nevertheless, when considered in context, that was just his second start in the Vuelta after debuting with a 2nd place finish the year before when essentially riding as a domestique for teammate Wiggins. In fact, in his seven GT starts since that 2011 breakthrough he has gone: 2/2/4/1/DNF/2/1/. Carlos Sastre is the best performer of the current Tour/Vuelta order, when in 2008 he finished 3rd in the Vuelta after winning the Tour. Sastre’s Tour win that year however, was only his first GT win of his career, whilst Froome has already won the Tour twice, and narrowly lost that debut Vuelta to JJ Cobo in 2011 by only 13 secs.
          Froome is a far superior rider to Sastre, and whilst an argument might be advanced that in the Tour Froome began to show some signs of weakening in the final two stages of the Alps (19 and 20), when losing time to Quintana in finishing 3rd and then 5th, I would counter this by suggesting that he still had Quintana covered by over 60 secs into Paris. In fact, in 2013 when he won by 4 mins over Quintana he gave away time to Quintana in much the same way (stages 18 and 20). So, even if it was freely accepted that Froome was fading in the Tour this year -- which I’m not convinced entirely -- he would’ve been fading against the fine balance of timing his “weakening” to still win comfortably. That is to say that it shows more how well he measured his performance throughout the race, in not going out too hard too early, that he would be swallowed up by the conclusion. Indeed his Tour ride was very even and patient and focused, he never appeared like he was panicking and the lights never looked like they were going out. Of course he will tire here at some point, but so will most of his main rivals as they also rode the Tour. And for those that didn’t, they are below his class level, and probably won’t get far enough that they won’t be brought back in the ITT.
          Froome is already the biggest name in cycling and his whole approach in wanting to bring a new light onto the sport whilst dominating it -- marks him as the primary candidate to make such thrilling new records become reality. 2nd favourite. Has drifted out into 3/1 with PP recently, which is very good value. Racing against inferior opposition. The one to beat. 

** Nairo Quintana
          At 25yo he has raced the Vuelta only twice before for a 36th place finish when on GT debut in 2012, and a DNF in 2014. Already a GT winner when he was set on a low-key approach to the 2014 season by riding and winning the Giro. Later, he crashed once and then crashed a second time to crash out of the Vuelta. Has been handled with cotton gloves by MOV throughout his young career, and this attempt at back-to-back GT rides looks to be a patiently timed plan by Unzue. One month ago in the Tour, Quintana appeared to be increasing in strength in the Alps at the end of the third week, and ultimately finished in 2nd place. Is presenting as a dour type of rider and therefore looks like he may benefit from hard riding into the third week, where he might strike with an attack which opens a sizeable gap. Whilst this can be understood as a step-up in class for him, he is the most natural climber in the peloton and thus has the ability to rise to the challenge. Opened as the favourite and continues to attract solid interest. 9/4 is very short and little in the way of value, especially as he likes to start conservatively. Dangerous proposition. Can finish strongly. Treat warily.

* Purito Rodriguez
          36yo veteran of the Vuelta with a staggering eleven starts. Best performance was in 2012 when he finished in 3rd place. Has no GT wins to his palmares. Finished well back in 29th place in the Tour earlier, although he did jag two good stage wins. He has ridden the Vuelta after riding the Tour on three occasions in his career, and what looks most appealing is his massive improvement (which is what will be required here again) in 2014, when he finished in 54th place in the Tour to then be quite competitive in the Vuelta with a 4th place finish.
Even though this Vuelta has eight summit finishes which have never been used in any previous editions, Purito knows this race better than any other rider in the peloton and will find an advantage where he can. Not much strength in his team is not that significant as he often rides best when sitting off his rivals or getting into a breakaway. Will need some luck in-running, but he does appear to be some value on here when hitting 40s. Is as low as 9/1 with the BV. Experienced campaigner. Has some prospects. Not to be discounted lightly. May pay to follow.

Alejandro Valverde
          He is pushing 35yo, however he won this race in 2009 and has a total of nine career starts around Spain. When observing his Tour/Vuelta performances in the same year, he has improved on his Tour ride on each occasion, going: 8/5 in 2008; 20/2 in 2012; 8/3 in 2013; and 4/3 in 2014. Clearly, he has no difficulty in regaining form one month after the Tour, and after finishing 3rd in the Tour earlier and then 3rd in San Sebastian last start, he is making strong suggestions of another improvement on his Tour ride, which puts him firmly on the podium.
          There was some speculation initially that he would be riding for Quintana, however the team has since come out and made strong statements that both riders will be leading the team, and indeed this is consistent with what was witnessed in the Tour to some extent. In very good form and with a proven pattern of improving results. 4th favourite with the Books and has shortened into 3/1 with some Books, but may still be available at 7/1 with bwin. Double that can be found on the exchange here with some patience. Experienced campaigner. Must be respected.

Vincenzo Nibali
          30yo. 3 starts in the Vuelta. Won it in 2010 as a 25yo. Has won all three GTs. 4th place finish in the Tour one month ago was a disappointing defence of his title, although he made some suggestions he was finding form after an impressive win on stage 19. This is the first time in his career that he tackles the Vuelta after riding the Tour, and there is some speculation that this is a result of his poor performance in the Tour, and that his motivation for a top performance is not secured. Obviously he has the ability to win here. Advantaged by a strong team, and will be further advantaged should he gain the benefit of having both Landa and Aru working in his favour. For that to occur it appears as if he will have to come out strong as presently there are too many question marks to form an opinion with some confidence one way or the other, about his intentions here. 5th favourite. 7/1 low; 12/1 high. Higher on here. Take on trust, initially. Watch closely if he sounds his intentions. 50/50 proposition.

Fabio Aru
          25yo. Finished in 5th place when on debut here in 2014, nearly 5 mins behind. Finished 2nd in the Giro earlier in the season when signalling his potential. Has only raced the Tour of Poland since that Giro ride and will come here fresh, however he was ordinary in Poland when having clear opportunities to make attempts for the outright on suitable ground, and he can appear fragile after hard riding. 3rd favourite. 7/1 solid. Little value. This is a major step-up in class. May require more riding. Consider.

Tejay van Garderen
          27yo. Pushed Froome in the Criterium Dauphine earlier in the season, and then abandoned the Tour in stage 17. Made his GT debut in the Vuelta in 2010 as a 22yo, when he finished in 35th place. He appears to lack some class, however going on last year’s results in the Vuelta where the top two riders did not finish the Tour, something may click with his condition and he may perform to the expectations many have of him as a GT winner. 50s still around in places looks like good E/W value. Podium prospects best. Take on trust.

Mikel Landa
          25yo. Comes into this on the back of a surprising if solid 3rd place finish in the Giro earlier in the season. Previous three starts in the Vuelta are as follows: 69/39/28. Last start in the Burgos appears to have been a training ride. As low as 9/1 with BV. Should be 90/1. This may be beyond his ability. Podium prospects best. Later.

Rafal Majka
          25yo. Had an impressive 2014 season. Jagged another stage win in the Tour, earlier. Has three Vuelta starts with a 19th place finish being his best in 2013. No top-5 GC results in GT races. In the absence of his high-profile teammate Contador, he gets his chance to signal his ambitions as a genuine GC contender. 33/1 (E/W) best with PP is still short. Little value. Improving type. Worthy of some consideration. Take on trust.

Domenico Pozzovivo
          32yo. Only the one start in the Vuelta in 2013 for a 6th place finish. Has never achieved a GC podium in 10 GT attempts. Was involved in a very serious crash in the Giro earlier this season. Since then, rode the Tour de Suisse for a 5th place finish, a forgettable 6th place finish in his RR Nationals, and a 10th in the Tour de l’Ain. As low as 13/1 with BV. Should be 100/1. Has good climbing ability. Prefer others. Discount. 

Good luck to all,
SP
Report Happybacker August 22, 2015 11:44 AM BST
I agree with SP i think Froome is the one to beat, and I don't think anyone can beat him if he is at the top of his game bar maybe a top form contador who is not here.
The question is whether Froome is in top form after the TDF, well I don't think he would be here if he didn't beliebve he was. From the outset during the TDF he said it was appealing to go for the 2 grand tour wins in a year and really put himself down as a legend, but he was unsure of how  he would feel coming out of the tdf. The fact he is here, and he and the team are speaking very confidently makes me think that he is feeling very good. I also believe he has a very strong team around him, maybe even stronger than at the tour??
The 3/1 is very appealing to me, I think if anything the route here suits him even better than the TDF did. Yes Quintana took time off him on the final two mountain stages in france but though Froome made no excuses and no mention of it, Braislford did say that Froome was on medication for a chest infection on the final week and they were slightly concerned he could blow up altogether on Alpe D'Huez. If this is correct and I am inclined to believe so as he had blew Quintana away in the pyrennees then i can't see how anyone would beat him here?? He would have to be below par in my view not to win and I just don't think he would be here if he or the team felt that is  going to be the case.

Have also backed Landa at 5/1 to podium. I have a feeling he could be the only one able to live with Froome and Quintana in the mountains. I was so impressed with him in the Giro, have  always felt he is a natural climber and he is now turning in to a real tour rider, and could well have won the giro had astana done things differently. While I accept he is probably number 3 in the team at the start, and with him leaving soon he will be asked to ride a supporting role, I think this being his home tour he will be determined to ride well and once it becomes obvious Nibali and Aru can't go with the big 2 he will have to become the team leader.
Report broomo83 August 28, 2015 5:12 PM BST
At the start of the tour Froome said if he wasn't feeling good then he'd happily sit in and help others in the team if they had a chance to win. Reckon there's any chance of him doing this now, after looking extremely vulnerable today and actually helping Nick Roach to try and win this? I'm loaded up on Roach at massive odds each way and ideally I'd love Froome to stick to his word :)
Report broomo83 August 28, 2015 5:14 PM BST
Obviously I meant N Roche.... Stupid auto correct.
Report sykes10 August 28, 2015 7:49 PM BST
Froome's goose looks to be cooked for this tour...
Report SwingingPick August 29, 2015 2:05 PM BST
Time to assess the GC situation since the stage 7 outcomes were noteworthy.

Froome is now 33 secs behind the Virtual Leader Valverde, but only 25-26 secs behind his main rivals. He is not at all far behind and the gaps are really nothing substantial in the greater scheme of things. For instance, Froome has those gaps covered and then some just in the ITT, however what worried me was his physical shape. He looked very poor to me, gaunt and almost sickly, the hot weather seems to be a major factor for him and he doesn't appear to be coping very well with it.

It was said that in the month between the end of the Tour and the start of the Vuelta he had stacked on a few extra kilos -- which is not that surprising -- and I thought that this might be a good thing in the long run as he would work off that weight in the process of getting stronger.

Now, Froome is a class rider and he has one bad day occasionally. Roche, speaking for the team about Froome's crack-up after yesterday's stage admitted as much when he stated, "We've seen him many times have a bad day but not lose too much time and take it day by day and recover".

My contention is not that he lost a little time, that's not an issue since it is time he can recover just in the ITT, however I don't see how he can get stronger as the race continues in this heat and looking so thin, especially when SKY make silly decisions like when yesterday they came to the front to ride tempo on occasion -- it was not necessary and it suggests they think they can ride this race like they rode the Tour.

Essentially, since I cannot identify any long-term reserves in Froome's shape, quite the opposite in fact, I cannot have confidence in his strength going into the third week, especially when Quintana is a dour type of rider who is likely to get stronger, and Aru is fresh from not having ridden the Tour and may be strong, too.

Also, another suggestion that the heat is hurting Froome is evidenced by him instructing Nieve and Roche to ride up the road without him, yesterday. No way would a hungry Froome make such a feeble decision in the Tour at any point, even if he was feeling bad on a stage, he would expect his teammates to stay with him as he recovers, but there was no recovery because it would appear that the heat has been a contributing and accelerating factor of him losing what little condition he had coming into this race.

Yesterday, it was not about him having a bad day, as much as warning signs that as this race progresses he looks like he might become physically weaker, and perhaps even become sick as his immune system breaks down. That's enough reason for me to discount his chances now -- I have lost confidence in him against still very strong opposition. Valverde and Purito have done this successfully in the past, that is riding the Tour and then riding a better Vuelta, Aru is a developing type so he can do anything coming in fresh as he has, and Quintana is a dour type who is used to the high temps and elevation -- but I think the race might be with the Spaniards at this early point.

I thought that I might at least give Froome the benefit of the doubt by laying him to saver, and then starting again with him if he recovers or shows signs of recovery, but his shape and the team's tactics are so questionable that I have gone to half of field red.

Good luck to all,
SP
Report marychain1 August 30, 2015 9:28 AM BST
My book is looking ok at the moment but that's mainly because my bet on Nibali has already settled as a loser. The other two and a bit riders I've got in my book (Aru @ 8, Majka @ 70 & pennies on Dumoulin @ 1000) have all shortened considerably.
Report Happybacker August 30, 2015 7:05 PM BST
I think Froome should be odds on now?? He has had his slightly dodgyy stage and come out the other side. Who beats him from here? Dumoulin will be gone on stage 11. Movistar don't know whether they are behind Valverde or Quintana?
Report marychain1 August 31, 2015 12:10 AM BST
I am surprised how big Froome still is. I guess people are still expecting Quintana to deliver the goods.
Report marychain1 August 31, 2015 9:35 AM BST
An even wiser cycling voice said this on 17th August "Talking of climbing, eyes will be drawn to Stage 11 which starts in Andorra in the Pyrenees. This is about as tough a stage of climbing I can ever remember in a Grand Tour" although modesty forbids me from saying who that sage was.
Report Happybacker August 31, 2015 10:45 AM BST
You are definitely right MC stage 11 looks as hard as any stage i have ever seen, and we should really have a clear idea of who is really in the shape to win this after that stage. The gc is sure to have a massive shake up on wednesday, and should start to resemble the real order of things here.
Report SwingingPick August 31, 2015 11:59 AM BST
Thanks for the question HB -- always appreciate your considered opinions -- this place only works when we have proper deliberations. Unless we get involved in a real debate there is little benefit of this forum. Some of us will stick by our opinions, others will switch, however by the conclusion of the race things that cannot be foreseen may very-well decide this race. In most cases however, it is the evidence of previous performances which will show the most likely conclusion. Sometimes not, though.

Froome has had his dodgy stage, that’s true, I thought it was bigger than just a dodgy performance, but I accept that the description that stage 7 was dodgy and he came back into it on stage 9. However, it is important for me to determine the manner in which Froome came back into it on stage 9.

The way in which he did so was by the yo-yoing tactic he recently used in Romandie to stick-on on the mountain climbs, but where he ultimately failed in the ITT when he could no longer hide by this form of "hiding" tactic.

Froome is only an odds-on proposition at this point if his condition has room to improve. Unlike in Romandie, where he came in with no form whatsoever but was looking to build a foundation into the Criterium Dauphine going into the Tour, here he has plenty of time to rebuild his strength after that poor-looking performance
Report SwingingPick August 31, 2015 12:25 PM BST
Thanks for the question HB -- always appreciate your considered opinions -- this place only works when we have proper deliberations. Unless we get involved in a real debate there is little benefit of this forum. Some of us will stick by our opinions, others will switch, however by the conclusion of the race things that cannot be foreseen may very-well decide this race. In most cases however, it is the evidence of previous performances which will show the most likely conclusion. Sometimes not, though.

Froome has had his dodgy stage, that’s true, I thought it was bigger than just a dodgy performance, but I accept the description that stage 7 was dodgy, and he certainly came back into it on stage 9. However, it is important for me to determine the manner in which Froome came back into it on stage 9.

The way in which he did so was by the yo-yoing tactic he recently used in Romandie to stick-on on the mountain climbs, but where he ultimately failed in the ITT when he could no longer hide his absence of form.

Froome is only an odds-on proposition at this point if his condition has room to improve. Unlike in Romandie, where he came in with no form whatsoever but was looking to build a foundation into the Criterium Dauphine going into the Tour, here he has plenty of time to rebuild his strength after that poor-looking performance on stage 7. But again, it was a scenario which is not what I found convincing. And if he just maintains this condition and doesn't continue to improve than he might blow-up in the ITT similarly to Romandie.

Just for that reason, I'm still willing to resist Froome winning. However, what confirms this belief is the performances of his rivals. Valverde and Quintana were the first two to attack yesterday on stage 9 and they finished together. That's important. Aru put in a blistering attack and he finished amongst those two, also. That's important, too. But what's also compelling, is that Purito effectively did nothing and he had no trouble finishing with Froome. He was doing it very easily, indeed. I mean, if these form lines continue than Froome still requires lots of improvement, and I am not sure his strength is there for that, but am willing to concede that he has enough time to find that improvement. That's what worries me and that's the reason I am not willing to lay him any more. 

In conclusion; stage 11 is going to be its own stage race and as many thought at the start of the race it may very-well decide the GC or show how it is most likely going to look going into the third week, so I am willing to resist Froome until then. Quintana's long-term outlook hasn't really changed, yes he has failed twice now, but he has the strength to fail and come back stronger the longer this race goes on, Aru is going along evenly with that fresh factor, Valverde is fading a little and I think that makes it easier for MOV to back Quintana going into the third week, however his fellow countryman Purito looks highly impressive but is disadvantaged by the ITT.

Would I wish to have not laid Froome after stage 7? Yes. But only because the lay would be cheaper now.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:36 PM BST
Going to have to make GC threads a bit easier to find. Might have to put GC at the start of the fred title. Anyhow, I think Chaves and Dumoulin are both now legitimate GC threats.

In my eyes, Aru, Dumoulin & Chaves are all in the picture. Froome is out the window. Quintana is not quite out the window but he is on the window sill. Pozzovivo is too far back. Valverde and Rodriguez are looking very tired. Be interesting to see if Moreno and Nieve are let off the leash now, Nieve should be but Rodriguez bound to still be team leader for Katusha for now imo.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:41 PM BST
I have an all-green book in the GC race. I have just laid all my green on Aru down to £1.20 green at 1.55-1.65.
Report SwingingPick September 2, 2015 5:51 PM BST
I'm going to look closer at 14, 15, and 16 again, whilst allowing this stage 11 to sink in, before making any long-term analysis suggestions.

There's like another completely separate race within this race throughout those three very tough stages, and then the rest day prior to the ITT throws up its own difficult questions; so whilst I don't necessarily disagree with your thoughts MC, I am not going to commit my opinions until I give longer thought to the existing questions remaining in this long and tough race. Definitely we've seen a lot today, but in my view it requires more study.
Report marychain1 September 2, 2015 5:55 PM BST
Is it too early to say this is Dumoulin v Aru?

The next time we should see a shake-up in GC is the three summit finishes on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, so plenty of time to recover for GC boys before then. The first two days have very steep final climbs but only the stage on Monday is an epic climbing stage in general, so I see Stage 16 as Aru's best chance of making time on Dumoulin.

Then, we have a rest day and then the flat TT (17) on the Wednesday. Dumoulin should put big time into Aru (and everyone else) on that stage so if he has got through stages 14-16 he could make what here, 2 mins? 3 mins?

After the time trial there is only one stage where it looks possible to gain time and that is stage 20 - 4 x Cat 1 climbs but with a downhill finish. That stage could be absolute fireworks if it is close on GC.

Let's speculate that Aru makes 20 seconds (total) over Dumoulin on Stages 14 and 15 then say 1 minute 10 seconds on Stage 16 which seems reasonable as he made 1 min 30 on Stage 11 which had a harder overall profile.

This gives Aru a speculative lead of 2 minutes over Dumoulin ahead of the time trial. In my eyes this should be overturned and more by Dumoulin. Then whatever deficit is left has to be won by ambush tactics (difficult but possible) on stages 18/19 or on Stage 20.
Report GoBallistic September 2, 2015 5:55 PM BST
GC working out well for me too.  All lays pretty much out of it, Aru odds on and fancy prices on Chaves and Dumoulin.  Good job something is working (major reverse today with Landa doing a Lazarus)
Report nugget September 2, 2015 6:11 PM BST
marychain1 • September 2, 2015 5:55 PM BST
Is it too early to say this is Dumoulin v Aru?


My initial thoughts are no. 

Maybe Purito has a chance though.  Stage 14 should come down to the final 2km where he could gain a few seconds.  He can win stage 15 which looks suitable for him.  Then he would need to not lose any time on 16 which does look unlikely.  Usually I would say Rodriguez could overturn a deficit of around 30secs to Aru in this 39km time trial.
Rodriguez rode the tour but didn't ride for the general classification so shouldn't be as tired as the other riders who did.
Report Happybacker September 2, 2015 7:52 PM BST
I personally think it is Aru v Purito not Dumoulin.
Without a doubt Dumoulin has surprised me and I didn't think he could stay in touch today but he did lose 1m 30 to Aru on the first real mountain stage of the tour and so I would expect him to lose similar amounts on 14 - 16, and I don't think he will be as dominant in the TT as normal after flogging himself in the mountains. In hindsight todays stage was so frighteningly hard that they just rode a really steady slow tempo until the final climb, that it probably wasn't so difficult for him to stay in touch (after all Froome stayed in touch for 3 climbs with a broken foot and badly gashed shoulder). I don't think that will be the case at all on say stage 16 where I would expect it to be a much faster stage with a very difficult finale with 3 very hard climbs coming in quick succession, and thats where i would expect Dumoulin to struggle more than today.
Report marychain1 September 3, 2015 4:51 PM BST
We might have bemoaned the lack of topline sprinters at this race but I do think it's good to see some of the next generation of sprinters in this Vuelta. Van Poppel and Sbaragli getting their maiden GT wins in the last few days - about time we had some new faces on the sprinters' block.
Report marychain1 September 3, 2015 4:52 PM BST
Cancellara out of Worlds. This means Dumoulin has a serious chance of a World TT Title. Decision time for Dumoulin and Giant - what means more, a crack at the Vuelta or a crack at the Worlds?
Report SwingingPick September 3, 2015 4:54 PM BST
Still putting it all together...
Report marychain1 September 3, 2015 5:10 PM BST
Aru 1.5 that has to be a lay?! The other good thing here is that with 7 men within 2 mins we should see teams going for the win here rather than just playing for places in the top 10 and letting the team with the red jersey off the hook like we've seen in the Tour in recent years.
Report GoBallistic September 3, 2015 8:16 PM BST
My main worry with Aru would be getting sick.  The weather has changed and that can be a problem for riders who are susceptible to colds and bugs.  I think he was sick in the 2nd week of the Giro
Report nugget September 4, 2015 4:31 PM BST
1.65 was a gift.  1.5 is still alright and I think he'll win a stage too.
Report SwingingPick September 5, 2015 7:42 AM BST
Good job to MC and HB putting up their thoughts -- provides me an interesting entry into the discussion. Unlike with my previews I can pick up on their points. I think it is definitely between the tope three: Aru, Purito and Dumoulin.

Firstly, this race is looking like a battle of attrition to me. Apart from Aru’s destructive solo attack with 8 kms to go on stage 11, no one has really dominated the race or looked particularly strong. Even with Aru on stage 9 when he laid down a strong attack to bridge across to Dumoulin with some 2 kms to go, it wasn’t a sustained effort because he couldn’t pull away, nor even get back on Dumoulin’s wheel once Dumoulin went again. Nevertheless, we cannot ignore the fact, which MC advanced earlier, the apparent freshness of riders who haven’t ridden the Tour and therefore the fresh and increasing strength of Aru.

Stage 9 laid down a marker for Aru which suggested he was willing to be aggressive in the GC group, and he confirmed that aspect in stage 11 when he went solo, long. In the Giro, Aru showed he can have a bad day, but moreover showed he can be inattentive, when on stage 18 he lost time to Contador on a stage which should have been plain and normal. He did also have a bad day in the mountains, however as the raced progressed the main observation is that he got stronger.

I therefore think that Aru has gained some experience since the Giro, is likely to get stronger as the race progresses, and whilst he might have a bad day over these three main climbing stages, he is more likely to hold and improve his lead than fail and let some of it slip. He has a particularly strong team, also.

Meanwhile, Purito has been doing absolutely nothing and finds himself in second place less than 30 secs behind. Stage 9, there is activity all over the race and he is happy to just stick on gamely. Stage 11, and when Aru attacks, it is Purito who answers and sticks on until Aru goes clear with a second attack. But Purito doesn’t panic or put himself into difficulty; perhaps knowing this race is long and tough, and knowing he can’t or won’t answer, he is happy to lose time to Aru, and he just sticks on with Moreno setting the pace, controlling the gaps to his rivals behind. After stage 11, he confirmed the patience he displayed by saying, “When Aru attacked I had no answer to him but tried to keep my own rhythm as high as possible. In the end we lost some time to one guy, but gained time to many others. Let's see now day by day.

It therefore appears that Purito is in this race for the duration, and is willing to do the bare minimum until the right moment for an attack as he is within striking range of Aru, perhaps in the form of a late ambush. Having said that, he still has to have a big day on one of the remaining climbing stages whilst continuing to stick on should more attacks come from Aru as they likely will. I think he knows he won’t ever have a better chance to win his home GT, any GT for that matter, and is going along very nicely with a particularly strong teammate in Moreno. Purito is a cunning rider and knows that whilst Aru might be the stronger rider, it is he who knows this race much better and has much more experience. That makes him a strong threat to Aru, but it appears that Aru needs too have a bad day for Purito to pull out a chunk of time over him.

Dumoulin and Purito should be the other way around in the market, imo. What we have discovered in this race is that Dumoulin may very-well be the next Wiggins, and that whilst he is still missing a destructive and sustained attack on steep gradient, he has a steady and strong ability on the climbs which allows him to limit his losses. Only losing 97 secs to Aru on the hardest stage in the mountains in a GT, was a very good effort and it surprised everyone.

I accept HB’s point that the select peloton didn’t go hard but just rode a steady tempo and that it helped Dumoulin stick on, however they still did a heap of climbing in total, and if he was weak he might have blown up on the final climb. Instead, he showed he can limit his losses by riding within his rhythm and since the ITT will be in his advantage he is still in this race, imo. I just don’t think he will blow up, but rather that the race might be taken away from his grasp by his mental approach and/or by an attack so strong by either Aru or Purito, that Dumoulin will just have too much to do in the ITT and fail by a small margin.

So, the ITT: MC suggests that Dumoulin finds 2-3 mins, that is 2-3 mins on Aru, and I think it is 3 mins quite easily, and perhaps more like 3.30 mins. If he gets through the three climbing stages before the rest day in fair order than it may even be more than 3.30 mins.

Since, 14, 15, and 16 all finish with a climb to the summit, the tactics should be clear. The select peloton are likely to ride tempo until the final climb, whereupon Aru and or Purito go out on the attack to put time into Dumoulin. They know his strength in the individual discipline and must establish a substantial buffer by then. I tend to agree with MC again, in that I think the gaps might be more of a conservative margin on stages 14 and 15, and more likely to be of a similar gap on stage 16 to that of stage 11.

Whilst Dumoulin only has the one stage where he can gain a large chunk of time, Aru and particularly Purito have opportunities for gaining time on each other and Dumoulin right up until stage 20, and that is the reason why I think a fresh and increasing in strength Aru, and a cunning and motivated Purito have the best chances to win this race. Dumoulin may look like the winner, but when it gets really steep and after all the climbing he is likely to fall back on the satisfaction he described on the day after stage 11, when he said the following; "I'm tired this morning but I think everybody is. I didn't surprise myself yesterday the way I did when I won my stage. But it's great to still be there in third place overall. For sure we're now starting to think about the GC even though I'm prepared to have a bad day and lose a lot of time. But this Vuelta has already been a great success for me." When a rider talks like that it is more than likely he has found a satisfaction within himself which makes it easier to give up when the going gets tough, and the going will certainly still get very tough.

In conclusion; Dumoulin may very-well get close and his price may get shorter at some point during or after the ITT, however Purito is too close to his maiden GT win to let this slip by riding foolishly or lazily, and Aru, whilst he may put in a bad day, is just too strong and fresh to not go out again solo with a strong attack, and simply take this race for himself. Indeed, he appears to be relishing the opportunity and is deserving of the short-priced favourite status at this point of the race. I therefore think this race is ultimately between Aru and Purito, and think the value may be with Purito since he looks to be in this race for a long way.

Good luck to all,
SP
Report Happybacker September 5, 2015 8:23 AM BST
Great to read your thoughts SP, and do agree with much of what you say and Purito looks stonking value at 14/1 (365) have added a bet on him with my Froome bet now gone!

My worry with Purito is has age finally started to catch up with him?? I love him as a rider, has always been willing to attack and has been so close to the big win (GT's and Worlds) on so many occassions, he deserves his big one but it doesn't always work out  that way. I just worry that the legs aren't quite as willing as they used to be, he has seemed just a bit below his best all year. Even in the last week of the tdf when i thought he would come on strong he just didn't really. Then on stage 11 the other day he had a great opportunity to really take a grip of this race when he and Moreno went clear with Aru, a  two on one. but when Aru attacked he had nothing left and in the end in the final 2km he was struggling to hold Moreno's wheel. For all that he will no doubt be ecstatic with his position right now, will probably make some time on Aru in the TT, and he does usually have a very strong 3rd week, so things are looking good for him if he does still have one more big week left in his legs.

It would be so good to see Aru, Purito, Dumoulin and others still all in contention going in to stage 20! Lets hope that happens and we can look back and say it's been one of the greatest GT's ever! I do still have the feeling though that Dumoulin will have a real bad day sooner or later, maybe today stage 14 or maybe monday stage 16???
Report marychain1 September 5, 2015 11:31 AM BST
Some very interesting and compelling thoughts on here. Personally I think Rodriguez looks tired and I can't see him making enough time over Dumoulin or Aru and at this point I am willing to discount him from my thoughts. I do have field green so Rodriguez would not be a bad result currently and I don't feel strongly enough to lay him at this stage. I have it between Aru and Dumoulin, mainly because Aru looks strong enough to increase his time gap on the field before the TT and Dumoulin should make up considerable time as SP says on the TT.
Report SwingingPick September 7, 2015 8:41 AM BST
Well, Purito has done the job as expected, and the 14/1 has quickly become 9/2. However, the job is not done until he rides into Madrid in the Leader's Jersey, and there may still be some corners in this race until then.

What may actually be a blessing in disguise for Purito, is that he didn't get into the Leader's Jersey yesterday on stage 15, and therefore he doesn't have the responsibility of having to defend it throughout the remaining stages, which might just be stage 16, since he is so close and Aru suddenly looks so nervous and stretched. It might be crucial to just not have that responsibility for that one extra day on stage 16, as it means he can just proceed with the patient and even riding he has displayed throughout this GT. Conversely, the pressure the young Aru is feeling will be immense.

I continue to think Purito wins this Vuelta on the basis of my earlier thoughts, but also because of his TT ability. Dumoulin is sticking on, however stage 16 might be curtains for him, given my earlier thoughts on the subject, and as such I think Purito has a minimum of 15-20 secs on Aru in the ITT, and it could be up to 30 secs given the little amount of work the Little Cigar has done on the previous climbing stages, and the form/fresh factors in his favour. Yes, Aru hasn't ridden the Tour, but he is beginning to look fragile and more than that, he knows it. It's a big advantage for such an experienced rider as Purito to be so close to Aru, especially when looking so dour, and Aru might falter again given his mental approach showing signs of weakness.

Of course laying off some Purito makes sense, however keeping faith with the Little Cigar is based on sound logic and strong evidence, and imo he remains the most likely winner, for not only does he have the advantage of the ITT, but he has the experienced ambush tactics which present him as the most likely rider to scramble onto the top step. 

Cheers,
SP
Report marychain1 September 7, 2015 9:17 AM BST
I would expect Purito to lose time to all the other GC contenders in the TT. I would expect it to be Dumoulin>Majka>Aru>Rodriguez. This will make it very interesting if the GC is Rodriguez>Aru>Majka>Dumoulin. I've been adding to my green on Majka as he is slowly getting stronger, seems to have strong team support, is flying under the radar and has a decent TT in him. Majka now my best result, followed by Dumoulin then the field with Aru my worst result at £2.00 green.
Report marychain1 September 7, 2015 6:30 PM BST
Dumoulin is going to be odds on after the time trial, he is an absolute no brainer of a trade currently. In fact, I think he should be odds on now. I expect him to put 2-30 to 3-30 into the other GC candidates and I don't see any way that the other guys can get the time back.
Report marychain1 September 7, 2015 10:22 PM BST
He's moved from 2.9 to 2.4 this evening, reckon he'll be shorter before they start tomorrow. Maybe I was being a bit optimistic with 2.30 to 3.30 but he should get at least 2 mins 10 giving him 20 seconds
Report marychain1 September 7, 2015 10:27 PM BST
*day after tomorrow
Report SwingingPick September 8, 2015 4:05 PM BST
I think Dumoulin can gain time over the Race Leader, Purito, from a conservative to optimistic margin of:
101 - 114 -- 127 secs. That's 1.41 -- 2.07. Initially, I thought it could be up to 3 mins, however this is the third week of a GT and whilst his condition is good, it is not the kind of shape he would have going into the ITT of a WC. Fitness=wise it might be argued to be, however it wouldn't be as good as the training-specific shape he would have with the WC as a specific target. Therefore, I have set a parameter within this understanding. Having said that, he is a developing rider and might just wake-up on the day with good sensations and have a WC ride, in which case he should be in green.

GC after ITT with a Dumoulin conservative performance:

Purito        Race Leader
Dumoulin  + 0.10 secs
Aru            + 0.15         
Majka        + 0.49         


GC after ITT with a Dumoulin optimistic performance:

Dumoulin Race Leader
Purito        + 0.16 secs
Aru            + 0.31       
Majka        + 1.12         


I think at about 30 secs back on Dumoulin, the race is still somewhat within reach for Purito and Aru. At 15 secs back on Dumoulin, the race is very-much open for Purito, and would have him installed as favourite. With Purito taking any sort of lead out of the ITT over his rivals, then I think it's over.

Okay, so there’s two ways to look at this: 1.) The way the market is anticipating a strong performance by Dumoulin, and therefore the inherent pattern of a shortening Dumoulin price. As MC has correctly observed, the appetite for Dumoulin has been strong and his price has shortened from 2.9 after the stage 16 finish to 2.4 soon after, and currently approaching 2.3. In which case, the question to ask is how low will his GC price likely go during the ITT? 2.) What is the likely GC price for Dumoulin, if the GC reforms according to the potential margins expected in the ITT?
Report marychain1 September 8, 2015 4:35 PM BST
Would you expect Rodriguez to be ahead of Aru after this TT? I'm not sure he will be.
Report SwingingPick September 8, 2015 6:28 PM BST
Absolutely MC, 5 - 28 secs better, but firstly please accept my apologies for not picking up on your earlier point regarding this question.

Purito is in his home tour, riding in the Leader's Jersey after a Rest Day, and he is arguably the closest he has ever been or will be to his first ever GT win in his long career, so whilst I accept the possibility that I may be a little biased after having tipped him at ante-post, I have nevertheless looked into it objectively and the data I've used is validated, over what might be considered a power course. I think maybe Aru might be closer and, given the small margin, even better than Purito over a climber's course since he showed he does that quite well, even on stage 11 here, when he went bury-mode 8 kms out. On that type of course he is better than Purito, however on this course, I have Purito in front. Nevertheless, considering the developing nature of Aru and therefore the idea that he might be improving in this discipline, they are pretty-much even and somewhat consistent with both of them being behind Dumoulin and Majka according to your earlier opinion; but even should Aru finish better than Purito on this occasion, it doesn't really answer the more important questions of the prices surrounding Dumoulin and the expected movements his performance is likely to create.

I mean, this race is between Dumoulin and Purito/Aru, isn't it, since either Purito or Aru can still pull out a race-winning climbing performance on stages 18, 19, 20 -- over Dumoulin? Will they be behind so far after the ITT that it will beyond them, or will they be ahead or close enough that it is possible? Discussing Aru and Purito doesn't get us far, imo. Plus that's not really where the money is -- the money is with Dumoulin, and the questions are whether to 1.) lay him off, 2.) how much, 3.) at what price; and, 4.) since the best movements are likely to come in the ITT, what are the factors which will affect those movements best or most profitable?

I think either of those two are a little too far back at 30+ secs on Dumoulin, but 15-20 secs is very-much doable to get back over those unofficially final three stages.
Report bb66 September 9, 2015 12:56 PM BST
no way will Dumoulin have the win secured with 30" advantageafter the ITT, hopefully we'll see fireworks in the the last cat 1 climbs on Thu and Sat and into Avila, Dumoulin being isolated could lose it every day, so I hope it will be exciting
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:37 PM BST
Dumoulin v Aru it is then
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 4:38 PM BST
marychain1 02 Sep 15 17:55 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 27,624 | Blogger: marychain1's blog

Is it too early to say this is Dumoulin v Aru?
Report marychain1 September 9, 2015 5:13 PM BST
What do we see from here then? None of the stages look that hard. There are late climbs on all three though and Stage 20 is 4x Cat 1s. Could see long range attacks from Purito, Majka etc? Those two and others forcing Dumoulin to chase allowing Aru to sit on and make his move when Dumoulin is cooked? Will be difficult for Dumoulin to keep the jersey.
Report SwingingPick September 9, 2015 7:15 PM BST
Well, quite disappointed with Purito's performance in the ITT, although the foundation of the analysis was there in terms of the money being with Dumoulin. He was matched as low as 1.36 and a big chunk was matched at 1.47, before he then went back out, and is presently pretty much where he was soon after the big demand began for him after stage 16.

I think in the end bundling Purito and Aru into the same boat for the ITT would have been advisable, in terms of drawing out two alternative GC-based outcomes, but admittedly I failed on that count by concentrating only on Purito, who was easier to work with since he was in the leader's jersey and time could be started from zero.

I certainly agree it is now strictly the case of -- Dumoulin v Aru. Even if Purito was to go into a different combative level of riding, and that it actually worked for him, the Little Cigar would have to take out 25 secs per stage for the remaining three stages (18, 19, 20), which effectively means him winning each stage and opening up 15 secs time gaps on the line to regain his 75 secs. If we look at such a gap in the context of the race, for instance Aru's big ride on stage 11 to pull out 37 secs on the best of the GC principals in Purito, it is just not consistent with the evidence that Purito might do that twice, nor even repeat Landa's huge ride on that same stage when he won from his fellow teammate by a margin of 72 secs when attacking the breakaway. Not impossible, but highly unlikely, I'm sure we can agree.

I think a hungry shark-style Nibali would be salivating over the potential of the remaining stages, for whilst they are not that difficult as MC suggests, they do involve the discipline of descending, and if 25 secs might be found with a brutal or committed attack on the climbing portion of the concluding part of the stage, that gap might easily be doubled to become 50 secs on the descent, at least for stages 18 and 20, although primarily the latter.

The question might therefore be: How well does Dumoulin descend? As a dutchman he should be quite special, as a TT specialist he knows speed and aero-style also, so if he decides to take chances than he is in the distinct advantage of regaining any potential gaps formed on the climb by going daredevil descending, and/or even sticking-on on the climb and attacking on the descent and opening up a gap for himself. Stage 19 might look like the perfect platform for his characteristics to shine in fact, especially if he were to be in a position to go in this descent-attack manner.

Next question: How hard can AST hit Dumoulin on the cat.1 on stage 18, tomorrow? I might advance the argument that AST can hit him very hard, they have shown consistently that they are very strong after all, but Dumoulin has been hit over and over, on much tougher climbs than the Quesera, which is only 8km at 5.3%, and Dumoulin has survived very well, amazingly so, and so repetitively that we can now be confident he is indeed the next Wiggins. The road surface on the descent of tomorrow's stage 18 is very poor, so the riders will have to be careful -- hopefully nothing like mechanicals or crashes will affect the outcome of the best GT this year!

In conclusion; I am tending to favour Dumoulin for the win, which at 1000/1 at SP, would make him the biggest upset in a GT since I can remember. He will be facing a lot of pressure from AST, but the climbs are not that hard and he has proven his climbing ability over harder, however we need to work out his descending ability. Nevertheless, I think the value is with him at 6/4.
Report marychain1 September 11, 2015 1:43 AM BST
Looking at the remaining two stages I cannot see for the life of me how Aru makes up time. The climbs aren't steep enough, and even if he could make time there are descents afterwards where Dumoulin gets back on. Dumoulin should be 1.2 now.
Report marychain1 September 11, 2015 1:44 AM BST
*3 if you count the procession on Sunday
Report GoBallistic September 11, 2015 12:40 PM BST
Assuming nothing changes beforehand, Astana will chase down the break on saturday so it will be a finish between the GC guys.  It's an uphill sprint - maybe hard enough to get a gap but that might not be needed.  Aru is quite punchy in those type of finishes as we saw in the Giro.  Permutations with the bonuses: if he wins the stage or (more likely) if he makes the top 3 and Dumoulin doesn't then he takes red.  Bottom line - if he's strong enough to win the Vuelta then he should be in red on sunday.  Keeping it would be no formality though if it's just a second or two
Report marychain1 September 11, 2015 2:59 PM BST
It isn't an uphill finish on Saturday
Report GoBallistic September 11, 2015 3:40 PM BST
Wanna bet ? Grin
Report nugget September 11, 2015 3:41 PM BST
Downhill until about 1.4k from the finish, then

600m at 6%, then 400m flat, then 200m 6.5%, then 100m flat to the finish. Or something close to that.

I think Aru will need to drop Dumoulin before the final 1.3km if he wants to take the red jersey.
Report marychain1 September 11, 2015 4:54 PM BST
Looks to me like they stop descending with about 800m to go, then there is a bit of false flat and then the last 200 yards go up at about 7.5%. Don't think anyone is getting dropped on that little bump.
Report nugget September 11, 2015 5:03 PM BST
Dumoulin looks convincing but it will be all hands on deck tomorrow for Astana.  Not many teammates for Dumoulin tomorrow.

2nd last climb's final 8km's average gradient are 7%,7%,7%,7%,9%,6%,7%,7%
last climbs final 7km's are 5%,6%,7%,6%,6%,7%,6%   

16km mostly downhill to the finish from the top of the last climb
Report SwingingPick September 11, 2015 5:03 PM BST
The only real concern tomorrow for Dumoulin is the second pass of the Morcuera, which from the east side is shorter than the first pass from the north, but much steeper, in total -- 9.8 kms at 6.7%. What I like about Dumoulin in this third week is that he appears to be developing before our eyes on the climbs, in so far as what might normally have been a troublesome climb for him in the second week, looks to be within his ability to handle in the third week. He is really quite remarkable with what he is doing here, and whilst that middle portion would perhaps have pinched him uncomfortably earlier, he should be comfortable on it tomorrow.
Report marychain1 September 11, 2015 9:00 PM BST
Guys, I'm in Budapest for a week or so and only get back the day before the Worlds start. I might be able to chip in a bit off my phone but I won't be able to do a full on fred. Anyone want to do a preview, or should I get it up before I go?
Report SwingingPick September 12, 2015 6:42 PM BST
I am certainly looking into it, but the confidence is pretty low at this point tbh -- haven't had an ante-post stage win in what feels like yonks, and the Stage Book is looking decidedly fatigued, so would put my vote towards you getting us going again, MC. If you can't than I'll put something up, but it'll probably be bare, I feel.
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