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*Vuelta a España* Sat 22 August - Sun 13 September
*Vuelta a España* Sat 22 August - Sun 13 September
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He's moved from 2.9 to 2.4 this evening, reckon he'll be shorter before they start tomorrow. Maybe I was being a bit optimistic with 2.30 to 3.30 but he should get at least 2 mins 10 giving him 20 seconds
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*day after tomorrow
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I think Dumoulin can gain time over the Race Leader, Purito, from a conservative to optimistic margin of:
101 - 114 -- 127 secs. That's 1.41 -- 2.07. Initially, I thought it could be up to 3 mins, however this is the third week of a GT and whilst his condition is good, it is not the kind of shape he would have going into the ITT of a WC. Fitness=wise it might be argued to be, however it wouldn't be as good as the training-specific shape he would have with the WC as a specific target. Therefore, I have set a parameter within this understanding. Having said that, he is a developing rider and might just wake-up on the day with good sensations and have a WC ride, in which case he should be in green. GC after ITT with a Dumoulin conservative performance:
GC after ITT with a Dumoulin optimistic performance:
I think at about 30 secs back on Dumoulin, the race is still somewhat within reach for Purito and Aru. At 15 secs back on Dumoulin, the race is very-much open for Purito, and would have him installed as favourite. With Purito taking any sort of lead out of the ITT over his rivals, then I think it's over. Okay, so there’s two ways to look at this: 1.) The way the market is anticipating a strong performance by Dumoulin, and therefore the inherent pattern of a shortening Dumoulin price. As MC has correctly observed, the appetite for Dumoulin has been strong and his price has shortened from 2.9 after the stage 16 finish to 2.4 soon after, and currently approaching 2.3. In which case, the question to ask is how low will his GC price likely go during the ITT? 2.) What is the likely GC price for Dumoulin, if the GC reforms according to the potential margins expected in the ITT? | ||||||||||||||||
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Would you expect Rodriguez to be ahead of Aru after this TT? I'm not sure he will be.
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Absolutely MC, 5 - 28 secs better, but firstly please accept my apologies for not picking up on your earlier point regarding this question.
Purito is in his home tour, riding in the Leader's Jersey after a Rest Day, and he is arguably the closest he has ever been or will be to his first ever GT win in his long career, so whilst I accept the possibility that I may be a little biased after having tipped him at ante-post, I have nevertheless looked into it objectively and the data I've used is validated, over what might be considered a power course. I think maybe Aru might be closer and, given the small margin, even better than Purito over a climber's course since he showed he does that quite well, even on stage 11 here, when he went bury-mode 8 kms out. On that type of course he is better than Purito, however on this course, I have Purito in front. Nevertheless, considering the developing nature of Aru and therefore the idea that he might be improving in this discipline, they are pretty-much even and somewhat consistent with both of them being behind Dumoulin and Majka according to your earlier opinion; but even should Aru finish better than Purito on this occasion, it doesn't really answer the more important questions of the prices surrounding Dumoulin and the expected movements his performance is likely to create. I mean, this race is between Dumoulin and Purito/Aru, isn't it, since either Purito or Aru can still pull out a race-winning climbing performance on stages 18, 19, 20 -- over Dumoulin? Will they be behind so far after the ITT that it will beyond them, or will they be ahead or close enough that it is possible? Discussing Aru and Purito doesn't get us far, imo. Plus that's not really where the money is -- the money is with Dumoulin, and the questions are whether to 1.) lay him off, 2.) how much, 3.) at what price; and, 4.) since the best movements are likely to come in the ITT, what are the factors which will affect those movements best or most profitable? I think either of those two are a little too far back at 30+ secs on Dumoulin, but 15-20 secs is very-much doable to get back over those unofficially final three stages. | ||||||||||||||||
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no way will Dumoulin have the win secured with 30" advantageafter the ITT, hopefully we'll see fireworks in the the last cat 1 climbs on Thu and Sat and into Avila, Dumoulin being isolated could lose it every day, so I hope it will be exciting
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Dumoulin v Aru it is then
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marychain1 02 Sep 15 17:55 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 27,624 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Is it too early to say this is Dumoulin v Aru? | ||||||||||||||||
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What do we see from here then? None of the stages look that hard. There are late climbs on all three though and Stage 20 is 4x Cat 1s. Could see long range attacks from Purito, Majka etc? Those two and others forcing Dumoulin to chase allowing Aru to sit on and make his move when Dumoulin is cooked? Will be difficult for Dumoulin to keep the jersey.
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Well, quite disappointed with Purito's performance in the ITT, although the foundation of the analysis was there in terms of the money being with Dumoulin. He was matched as low as 1.36 and a big chunk was matched at 1.47, before he then went back out, and is presently pretty much where he was soon after the big demand began for him after stage 16.
I think in the end bundling Purito and Aru into the same boat for the ITT would have been advisable, in terms of drawing out two alternative GC-based outcomes, but admittedly I failed on that count by concentrating only on Purito, who was easier to work with since he was in the leader's jersey and time could be started from zero. I certainly agree it is now strictly the case of -- Dumoulin v Aru. Even if Purito was to go into a different combative level of riding, and that it actually worked for him, the Little Cigar would have to take out 25 secs per stage for the remaining three stages (18, 19, 20), which effectively means him winning each stage and opening up 15 secs time gaps on the line to regain his 75 secs. If we look at such a gap in the context of the race, for instance Aru's big ride on stage 11 to pull out 37 secs on the best of the GC principals in Purito, it is just not consistent with the evidence that Purito might do that twice, nor even repeat Landa's huge ride on that same stage when he won from his fellow teammate by a margin of 72 secs when attacking the breakaway. Not impossible, but highly unlikely, I'm sure we can agree. I think a hungry shark-style Nibali would be salivating over the potential of the remaining stages, for whilst they are not that difficult as MC suggests, they do involve the discipline of descending, and if 25 secs might be found with a brutal or committed attack on the climbing portion of the concluding part of the stage, that gap might easily be doubled to become 50 secs on the descent, at least for stages 18 and 20, although primarily the latter. The question might therefore be: How well does Dumoulin descend? As a dutchman he should be quite special, as a TT specialist he knows speed and aero-style also, so if he decides to take chances than he is in the distinct advantage of regaining any potential gaps formed on the climb by going daredevil descending, and/or even sticking-on on the climb and attacking on the descent and opening up a gap for himself. Stage 19 might look like the perfect platform for his characteristics to shine in fact, especially if he were to be in a position to go in this descent-attack manner. Next question: How hard can AST hit Dumoulin on the cat.1 on stage 18, tomorrow? I might advance the argument that AST can hit him very hard, they have shown consistently that they are very strong after all, but Dumoulin has been hit over and over, on much tougher climbs than the Quesera, which is only 8km at 5.3%, and Dumoulin has survived very well, amazingly so, and so repetitively that we can now be confident he is indeed the next Wiggins. The road surface on the descent of tomorrow's stage 18 is very poor, so the riders will have to be careful -- hopefully nothing like mechanicals or crashes will affect the outcome of the best GT this year! In conclusion; I am tending to favour Dumoulin for the win, which at 1000/1 at SP, would make him the biggest upset in a GT since I can remember. He will be facing a lot of pressure from AST, but the climbs are not that hard and he has proven his climbing ability over harder, however we need to work out his descending ability. Nevertheless, I think the value is with him at 6/4. | ||||||||||||||||
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Looking at the remaining two stages I cannot see for the life of me how Aru makes up time. The climbs aren't steep enough, and even if he could make time there are descents afterwards where Dumoulin gets back on. Dumoulin should be 1.2 now.
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*3 if you count the procession on Sunday
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Assuming nothing changes beforehand, Astana will chase down the break on saturday so it will be a finish between the GC guys. It's an uphill sprint - maybe hard enough to get a gap but that might not be needed. Aru is quite punchy in those type of finishes as we saw in the Giro. Permutations with the bonuses: if he wins the stage or (more likely) if he makes the top 3 and Dumoulin doesn't then he takes red. Bottom line - if he's strong enough to win the Vuelta then he should be in red on sunday. Keeping it would be no formality though if it's just a second or two
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It isn't an uphill finish on Saturday
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Wanna bet ?
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Downhill until about 1.4k from the finish, then
600m at 6%, then 400m flat, then 200m 6.5%, then 100m flat to the finish. Or something close to that. I think Aru will need to drop Dumoulin before the final 1.3km if he wants to take the red jersey. | ||||||||||||||||
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Looks to me like they stop descending with about 800m to go, then there is a bit of false flat and then the last 200 yards go up at about 7.5%. Don't think anyone is getting dropped on that little bump.
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Dumoulin looks convincing but it will be all hands on deck tomorrow for Astana. Not many teammates for Dumoulin tomorrow.
2nd last climb's final 8km's average gradient are 7%,7%,7%,7%,9%,6%,7%,7% last climbs final 7km's are 5%,6%,7%,6%,6%,7%,6% 16km mostly downhill to the finish from the top of the last climb | ||||||||||||||||
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The only real concern tomorrow for Dumoulin is the second pass of the Morcuera, which from the east side is shorter than the first pass from the north, but much steeper, in total -- 9.8 kms at 6.7%. What I like about Dumoulin in this third week is that he appears to be developing before our eyes on the climbs, in so far as what might normally have been a troublesome climb for him in the second week, looks to be within his ability to handle in the third week. He is really quite remarkable with what he is doing here, and whilst that middle portion would perhaps have pinched him uncomfortably earlier, he should be comfortable on it tomorrow.
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Guys, I'm in Budapest for a week or so and only get back the day before the Worlds start. I might be able to chip in a bit off my phone but I won't be able to do a full on fred. Anyone want to do a preview, or should I get it up before I go?
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I am certainly looking into it, but the confidence is pretty low at this point tbh -- haven't had an ante-post stage win in what feels like yonks, and the Stage Book is looking decidedly fatigued, so would put my vote towards you getting us going again, MC. If you can't than I'll put something up, but it'll probably be bare, I feel.
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