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*Eneco Tour* Monday 10th August to Sunday 16th August

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Replies: 72
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:13
Wellens and Benoot have to be a good chance here with TLS doing all this work, primarily with the Gorilla.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:15
Breakaway ready to blow, I think!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:16
Boom attacks, gets up the road, and then immediately looks back inviting the close! Confused
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:20
Epic stage thanks to the conditions, but still wanting some more attacks!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:24
Might get an attack on this climb coming out of the select peloton.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:25
WTFConfused the Gorilla gaping the main men?
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:27
The Gorilla gapped the select peloton on the climb, and drew out a teammate with a few others -- amazing!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:28
Kelderman -- provide assistance mate!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:31
About time -- Kelderman!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:32
Fantastic stage!!!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:32
Breakaway dying...
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:33
Le Bon getting right up on the camera bike! Laugh
By:
nugget
When: 14 Aug 15 15:38
Gilbert and GVA sprinting for seconds on the golden kilometer. lol
By:
nugget
When: 14 Aug 15 15:42
...then they get gaped by Greipel
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 15:44
Le Bon -- gets it -- great ride -- displayed excellent strength to attack and gap his breakaway compatriot Van Baarle! Absolutely amazing ride by the Gorilla -- we saw this in Flanders this year when he got a roll up on the Hellingen, but to hold on and essentially make the selection for the second group was quite breathtaking, really! Kelderman did well -- no complaints with adding him at 6/1 -- the Books were right to keep him safe.
By:
nugget
When: 14 Aug 15 15:44
Kelderman smart not to work too much too early and risk wasting energy when he already has a lead on the other contenders.  Much harder day tomorrow.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 19:59
Just reviewing the stage 5 tactics by BMC with both GVA and Gilbert involved in the Golden Km sprints, where they got 1 sec and 2 secs, respectively. Unless they were going to use that attack as a springboard to bridge to the two man breakaway it was clearly a waste of effort, given the understanding of how much time was available by being more attentive on the climb where the Gorilla made the second group selection, and then working with LTS to spread out the GC. Yes it would be a big call to springboard some 35 kms out, but clearly given their no-show on the Weg Langs Stammen climb it took some stuffing out of them for little return compared to what Wellens and especially Kelderman got out of the stage, by just riding attentively.

Stage 7 looks like an absolute cracker, also because this race is so finely balanced -- the longest stage of the tour and at over 200 kms it is a true top-class test.

Kelderman, who only had some Under23 form previously, actually finished with Gilbert in the +1:41 secs group at this year's LBL won by Valverde, so he should handle the conditions fine. Alaphilippe finished in 2nd place, so it will be interesting to see if EQS put all their chips into the one basket and work for him, given he is their best-placed rider at +54 secs back and still within reach of Kelderman.

The Malmedyerstraße will soften up the peloton and that's where the long-range breakaway will probably form, but the up and down all-day-long will make for selective racing and there's still a lot of riders in this race within the lead, however I hope we get a genuine free-for-all bar-room brawl at some point, most likely from approaching the Golden Km standing at a manageable 20kms out from the finish for a bruising encounter.

The Books have gone short with Kelderman and I am not complaining, but I think odds on is not a legitimate position given the split-second decision essentially deciding a critical, race-winning move within the race. Wellens at second favourite and 6/1 best with two is also questionable. If you look at his sign-in photos for the first stage of the TdF he appeared decidedly pudgy, and is now stripping down and finding form, but if it's a bruising encounter it will still be tough for him, I think. Boom looks ready for a spell, but I wouldn't want to be laying him. Which leaves the BMC duo of GVA and Gilbert as the obvious main dangers to Kelderman, still. If they work together one of them will likely win, but DS has to be smarter than on the previous stage. Alaphilippe is an interesting proposition at 75/1 with the Books, however there is no place betting from what I can find. Yes he is +54 secs behind, however Wellens opened a 50 sec gap when he won the penultimate stage last year, so he is still within reach, but perhaps a podium best.





Just reviewing the stage 5 tactics by BMC with both GVA and Gilbert involved in the Golden Km sprints, where they got 1 sec and 2 secs, respectively. Unless they were going to use that attack as a springboard to bridge to the two man breakaway it was clearly a waste of effort, given the understanding of how much time was available by being more attentive on the climb where the Gorilla made the second group selection, and then working with LTS to spread out the GC. Yes it would be a big call to springboard some 35 kms out, but clearly given their no-show on the Weg Langs Stammen climb it took some stuffing out of them for little return compared to what Wellens and especially Kelderman got out of the stage, by just riding attentively.

Stage 7 looks like an absolute cracker, also because this race is so finely balanced -- the longest stage of the tour and at over 200 kms it is a true top-class test.

Kelderman, who only had some Under23 form previously, actually finished with Gilbert in the +1:41 secs group at this year's LBL won by Valverde, so he should handle the conditions fine. Alaphilippe finished in 2nd place, so it will be interesting to see if EQS put all their chips into the one basket and work for him, given he is their best-placed rider at +54 secs back and still within reach of Kelderman.

The Malmedyerstraße will soften up the peloton and that's where the long-range breakaway will probably form, but the up and down all-day-long will make for selective racing and there's still a lot of riders in this race within the lead, however I hope we get a genuine free-for-all bar-room brawl at some point, most likely from approaching the Golden Km standing at a manageable 20kms out from the finish for a bruising encounter.

The Books have gone short with Kelderman and I am not complaining, but I think odds on is not a legitimate position given the split-second decision essentially deciding a critical, race-winning move within the race. Wellens at second favourite and 6/1 best with two is also questionable. If you look at his sign-in photos for the first stage of the TdF he appeared decidedly pudgy, and is now stripping down and finding form, but if it's a bruising encounter it will still be tough for him, I think. Boom looks ready for a spell, but I wouldn't want to be laying him. Which leaves the BMC duo of GVA and Gilbert as the obvious main dangers to Kelderman, still. If they work together one of them will likely win, but DS has to be smarter than on the previous stage. Alaphilippe is an interesting proposition at 75/1 with the Books, however there is no place betting from what I can find. Yes he is +54 secs behind, however Wellens opened a 50 sec gap when he won the penultimate stage last year, so he is still within reach, but perhaps a podium best.









Just reviewing the stage 5 tactics by BMC with both GVA and Gilbert involved in the Golden Km sprints, where they got 1 sec and 2 secs, respectively. Unless they were going to use that attack as a springboard to bridge to the two man breakaway it was clearly a waste of effort, given the understanding of how much time was available by being more attentive on the climb where the Gorilla made the second group selection, and then working with LTS to spread out the GC. Yes it would be a big call to springboard some 35 kms out, but clearly given their no-show on the Weg Langs Stammen climb it took some stuffing out of them for little return compared to what Wellens and especially Kelderman got out of the stage, by just riding attentively.

Stage 7 looks like an absolute cracker, also because this race is so finely balanced -- the longest stage of the tour and at over 200 kms it is a true top-class test.

Kelderman, who only had some Under23 form previously, actually finished with Gilbert in the +1:41 secs group at this year's LBL won by Valverde, so he should handle the conditions fine. Alaphilippe finished in 2nd place, so it will be interesting to see if EQS put all their chips into the one basket and work for him, given he is their best-placed rider at +54 secs back and still within reach of Kelderman.

The Malmedyerstraße will soften up the peloton and that's where the long-range breakaway will probably form, but the up and down all-day-long will make for selective racing and there's still a lot of riders in this race within the lead, however I hope we get a genuine free-for-all bar-room brawl at some point, most likely from approaching the Golden Km standing at a manageable 20kms out from the finish for a bruising encounter.

The Books have gone short with Kelderman and I am not complaining, but I think odds on is not a legitimate position given the split-second decision essentially deciding a critical, race-winning move within the race. Wellens at second favourite and 6/1 best with two is also questionable. If you look at his sign-in photos for the first stage of the TdF he appeared decidedly pudgy, and is now stripping down and finding form, but if it's a bruising encounter it will still be tough for him, I think. Boom looks ready for a spell, but I wouldn't want to be laying him. Which leaves the BMC duo of GVA and Gilbert as the obvious main dangers to Kelderman, still. If they work together one of them will likely win, but DS has to be smarter than on the previous stage. Alaphilippe is an interesting proposition at 75/1 with the Books, however there is no place betting from what I can find. Yes he is +54 secs behind, however Wellens opened a 50 sec gap when he won the penultimate stage last year, so he is still within reach, but perhaps a podium best.




Just reviewing the stage 5 tactics by BMC with both GVA and Gilbert involved in the Golden Km sprints, where they got 1 sec and 2 secs, respectively. Unless they were going to use that attack as a springboard to bridge to the two man breakaway it was clearly a waste of effort, given the understanding of how much time was available by being more attentive on the climb where the Gorilla made the second group selection, and then working with LTS to spread out the GC. Yes it would be a big call to springboard some 35 kms out, but clearly given their no-show on the Weg Langs Stammen climb it took some stuffing out of them for little return compared to what Wellens and especially Kelderman got out of the stage, by just riding attentively.

Stage 7 looks like an absolute cracker, also because this race is so finely balanced -- the longest stage of the tour and at over 200 kms it is a true top-class test.

Kelderman, who only had some Under 23 form previously, actually finished with Gilbert in the +1:41 secs group at this year's LBL won by Valverde, so he should handle the conditions. Alaphilippe finished in 2nd place, so it will be interesting to see if EQS put all their chips into the one basket and work for him, given he is their best-placed rider at +54 secs back and still within reach of Kelderman.

The Malmedyerstraße will soften up the peloton and that's where the long-range breakaway will probably form, but the up and down all-day-long will make for selective racing and there's still a lot of riders in this race within the lead, however I hope we get a genuine free-for-all bar-room brawl at some point, most likely from approaching the Golden Km standing at a manageable 20kms out from the finish for a bruising encounter.

The Books have gone short with Kelderman and I am not complaining as it influenced this market and I have laid off some, but I think odds on is not a legitimate position given the split-second decision essentially deciding a critical, race-winning move within the race. Wellens at second favourite and 6/1 best with two is also questionable. If you look at his sign-in photos for the first stage of the TdF he appeared decidedly pudgy, and is now stripping down and finding form, but if it's a bruising encounter it will still be tough for him, I think. Boom looks ready for a spell, but I wouldn't want to be laying him. Which leaves the BMC duo of GVA and Gilbert as the obvious main dangers to Kelderman, still. If they work together one of them will likely win, but DS has to be smarter than on the previous stage. Alaphilippe is an interesting proposition at 75/1 with the Books, however there is no place betting from what I can find. Yes he is +54 secs behind, however Wellens opened a 50 sec gap when he won the penultimate stage last year, so he is still within reach, but perhaps a podium at best.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 14 Aug 15 20:01
Confused that's a first...
By:
marychain1
When: 14 Aug 15 23:25
Has anyone reviewed BMC's tactics from today? LaughWink Only managed to catch limited highlights from the last two stages, and feel like I've missed a proper treat. Don't think I'm going to see much more over the next two days either as we're going on holiday.
By:
marychain1
When: 15 Aug 15 00:31
I like Kelderman but the prices available for him to win the outright are laughable considering the two stages left to run. He's as short as 8/13 in places and is best priced 5/6, although I see 2.1 is available on here. I wouldn't back him at 5/4 or even 6/4. He has 20+ riders within a minute, and two ugly stages left to race. There will be attacks from all over the place tomorrow and Sunday, I expect he'll be isolated fairly early and it would be an astonishing achievement to hold on to the leader's jersey. To be honest I'd be surprised if he's still wearing it this time tomorrow.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 15 Aug 15 15:20
BAR-ROOM BRAWL -- long way out! LoveLoveLove
By:
nugget
When: 15 Aug 15 15:46
stage over
race over

Wellens on his once a year peak
By:
nugget
When: 15 Aug 15 15:49
I thought after winning the Eneco tour last year Wellens might of done alright in the classics and won a few races this year.  Looks like he was just waiting for the Eneco to come around again.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 15 Aug 15 17:47
Powerhouse ride by Wellens to essentially repeat what he did last year on the penultimate stage. Kelderman was left to fend for himself after all of his teammates dropped away, and he was doing a sterling job closing down attacks and riding forwardly, however those tactics were tiring him out and unsurprisingly he eventually popped. The only rider who did more work was GVA, he was all over this race, and he showed he was very much stronger than teammate Gilbert, so perhaps admittedly it wasn't so much about who the leader was for this race in BMC as much as who will prove themselves to be stronger, and GVA was amazingly strong, but he never closed on Wellens even though he got assistance late from my pick at ante-post, Geschke. EQS gave the nod to Alaphillipe as expected, and he gave it a decent go in places, but ultimately didn't have the legs. BMC were in a really good position at one point with both riders in the break, but they were so far out it would have been suicide to commit and they were eventually closed down.

It was tough, bruising riding throughout, with the rain again an influencing factor -- this tour is finally confirming it's promise as a stage race for classics men. Love it!

With Wellens holding a 63 sec lead over GVA, it appears substantial that he wins and I think he will, but a case might be advanced that it is far from locked-in; for instance, he lost a minute to the leader and 15 secs to the second group on the final stage last year, and he has absolutely no form on the pave whatsoever. We've seen what the pave can do to riders when they're wet, the rider is tired or fatigued, and when he has little experience on them -- now combine all those factors as we may get tomorrow -- they go down or find trouble in some other way. Wellens can rely on a strong team though, and LTS closed down all the dangerous moves last year, so there is no reason to think they won't be riding strongly tomorrow, so as such scenarios are weighed, they are best done in price form and I think Wellens is value only at 1.45 or better.
By:
marychain1
When: 16 Aug 15 10:35
Van Avermaet is capable of making up a minute or so on this sort of course, but it's going to be a tough job against a strong Lotto team.
By:
nugget
When: 16 Aug 15 14:30
GVA won this corresponding stage in last years edition of the race, Wellens finished 8th, 6 sec behind.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 16 Aug 15 14:57
If GVA is going to try something with BMC than surely it must happen at the Golden Km, now approaching?
By:
SwingingPick
When: 16 Aug 15 14:59
...Well in terms of distance anyway, since all the bonus time is gone from the breakaway.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 16 Aug 15 15:12
Two old and experienced men in Quinziato and Leukemans versus the young Lampaert. I'm going with the young gun at 2/1 -- has had some good form in the spring classics and will be out to impress in his first season with EQS.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 16 Aug 15 15:16
Market says Quinziato, and Lampaert at 4/1 is worth topping up.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 16 Aug 15 15:20
Quinziato it is...
By:
nugget
When: 16 Aug 15 15:40
Kudos to Wellens, Eneco is a hard race to win let alone do it back to back.  Might be one to watch at Il Lombardia later in the year.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 16 Aug 15 15:41
Lampaert just didn't have the power on the Denderoordberg climb, even though he did the least amount of work in that three man break, although he was the first to respond when Quinziato attacked, however the elastic snapped quite easily given Quinziato's strength as a BMC workhorse. He did begin to fade on the Muur, but had a big enough gap to hold on.

Wellens wins the Overall -- probably underestimated him too much at ante-post when in retrospect his shape was much better than at the start of the TdF.
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